Duck Fan 76 No. 1 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Georgia football: 3 reasons Oregon could shock the Bulldogs WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM It's not LIKELY, mind you, but we're here to tell you that it wouldn't be an earth-shaking upset. I generally agree with the articles premise, the odds (literally) are against the Ducks on Saturday but if Oregon players execute this game will be a GAME! Coach Smart will have Georgia ready for this game, as ready as any team can be for game 1. On that note Georgia players have mentioned that it's a little weird watching game film for four different schools to get ready. Transfer portal = week 1 chaos! 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Log Haulin No. 2 Share Posted September 1, 2022 The comments are interesting. Seems a lot of Dawg fans have little respect for Oregon. This is not 2021, not for UGA and definitely not for UO. Oregon has upgraded this team across the board. From coaching to players. Minus KT loss, every position group seemingly has more talent. Including linebackers with Flowe on the field. The unknown here is QB. Nix got his hat handed to him three years straight by UGA. Oregon has more talent than AU and Nix has proven to be Favre tuff. I like Oregon's chances. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 Author No. 3 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 8/31/2022 at 5:15 PM, Log Haulin said: Nix got his hat handed to him three years straight by UGA I did read that when his 2021 completion percentage is adjusted for a teams average number of drops it's in the high 60's. That being said he doesn't do touch passes well and instead will put some heat on screens. He's more accurate across the middle than down the side lines as well. I expect Oregon when passing to use crossing routes with a rub on the defender this Saturday. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoGaDawg No. 4 Share Posted September 1, 2022 (edited) On 8/31/2022 at 8:41 PM, Duck Fan 76 said: I did read that when his 2021 completion percentage is adjusted for a teams average number of drops it's in the high 60's. That being said he doesn't do touch passes well and instead will put some heat on screens. He's more accurate across the middle than down the side lines as well. I expect Oregon when passing to use crossing routes with a rub on the defender this Saturday. If the Ducks are successful using rubs on crossing routes GA fans will call it a pick and be pissed when they see no flag. Truth is, most passionate fans do see a pick even when a rub is used flawlessly against their team. Edited September 1, 2022 by SoGaDawg 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 Author No. 5 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 8/31/2022 at 6:12 PM, SoGaDawg said: most passionate fans do see a pick even when a rub is used flawlessly Very very true, the devil is in the details and the calls can get a bit iffy. Most fans don't know when it's legal. The hope is that Oregon's receiver's are taught to cause a DB to drop half a step without any contact. That's usually all you need across the middle. Gridiron Glossary: Rub Route | Third Down Draw THIRDDOWNDRAW.COM A combination of pass routes where one receiver's route is designed to cause him to run into the defender guarding another receiver. https://youtu.be/txjC9DnM5oA?start=429s&?end=443s... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
47sgs No. 6 Share Posted September 1, 2022 While I, like every duck fan hopes Oregon wins this game, or is at least competetive, I realize this is our coaches first game as a head coach against the defending national champion, As much as I want Oregon to look good, I am positive our coach is a quick study, and even if it's a bad loss, he'll rebound quickly with good ajustments going forward. I think we have a very smart head coach with serious drive, who with a little experience, will get Oregon where we want them to be. I'm optomistic for this game, but also realize the coach and team need time and experience to get where we want the team to go. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartan2785 No. 7 Share Posted September 1, 2022 I see this game as a free hit, nobody really expects anything from the Ducks in this game, if we can remain competitive keep it within a one score game where we have a chance in the 4th quarter I'll view it as a good step towards the rest of the season. We have the talent to do that I believe, but we'll at least have to have no bad luck to achieve that. This game is more about establishing what Lanning envisions for this program. If we get blown out, the thing we need to realize is that our goals are still achievable, which in my opinion is a Pac-12 championship and continuing to be the best program out west. 2 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southwest Duck No. 8 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 8/31/2022 at 5:15 PM, Log Haulin said: The comments are interesting. Seems a lot of Dawg fans have little respect for Oregon. This is not 2021, not for UGA and definitely not for UO. Oregon has upgraded this team across the board. From coaching to players. Minus KT loss, every position group seemingly has more talent. Including linebackers with Flowe on the field. The unknown here is QB. Nix got his hat handed to him three years straight by UGA. Oregon has more talent than AU and Nix has proven to be Favre tuff. I like Oregon's chances. I disagree that we have upgraded across the board. Our coaches are unproven, so right now it is a push . Lanning=Crisobal Qb Upgrade Nix/Ty > Anthony Brown RB Downgrade Dye Verdell > 5 unproven backs we don't even know who the lead guy is. OL Upgrade 1 more year of experience and added 5 star Connerly WR Downgrade Pittman Devon Williams JJ3 and Redd > Hutson, Seven, Franklin, Thornton, Coda, Chapman (Prove it first, These guys have done very little at the college level) TE Upgrade Matavao and Ferguson are a year older. Dline Push Lost Thibbs but added a lot of depth at tackle. LB Upgrade Sewell older and a healthy Flowe. Bassa more experienced and added weight. Safety Downgrade Lost McKinley everyone else the same. CB Push DJ James and Wright are big losses, but Gonzalez was a huge pickup. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 9 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Odds makers for the big betting houses don't often lose money. When you see one team is a 17.5 favorite over another, there's usually good reasons. Right now, the Ducks would do well to cover the points. If they do, they'll be rewarded by the pollsters. I'm hoping for something in the neighborhood of 20-10 Georgia. Oregon could pull an upset but it's not likely. If Ore does win, it will be a squeaker. . 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Log Haulin No. 10 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 8/31/2022 at 8:59 PM, Southwest Duck said: I disagree that we have upgraded across the board. Our coaches are unproven, so right now it is a push . Lanning=Crisobal Qb Upgrade Nix/Ty > Anthony Brown RB Downgrade Dye Verdell > 5 unproven backs we don't even know who the lead guy is. OL Upgrade 1 more year of experience and added 5 star Connerly WR Downgrade Pittman Devon Williams JJ3 and Redd > Hutson, Seven, Franklin, Thornton, Coda, Chapman (Prove it first, These guys have done very little at the college level) TE Upgrade Matavao and Ferguson are a year older. Dline Push Lost Thibbs but added a lot of depth at tackle. LB Upgrade Sewell older and a healthy Flowe. Bassa more experienced and added weight. Safety Downgrade Lost McKinley everyone else the same. CB Push DJ James and Wright are big losses, but Gonzalez was a huge pickup. I disagree that Lanning and Cristobal are equal. We will see if Lanning is as bad as Mariø on game day. My gut says Lanning will be better. Lanning has already proven he is better elsewhere. You can see it in the culture. These guys are having fun and enjoying football again. In my mind, "unproven " does not equate to a downgrade. Experience doesn't necessarily make you better than the next guy. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave23 No. 11 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 8/31/2022 at 6:41 PM, Duck Fan 76 said: I did read that when his 2021 completion percentage is adjusted for a teams average number of drops it's in the high 60's. In last year's Auburn vs Georgia game the WR's dropped 5 catchable passes in the first half alone, including one deflected for an INT. The announcers we're talking about him needing to put some touch on the ball which was true but the ball did hit the players in the hands and should have been caught. This reminds me of the problem Herbert had in his early years with tons of drops passes because his WR's just couldn't handle his arm strength. Herbert could have won a Heisman with this year's WR's. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desert Duck No. 12 Share Posted September 1, 2022 "It's not LIKELY, mind you, but we're here to tell you that it wouldn't be an earth-shaking upset." In the realm of college football, Oregon beating Georgia would be an earth shaking upset. Just like it was last year when Oregon beat Ohio State -- at Ohio state. And not only does Oregon have to take on a loaded Georgia team whose last game was them winning the national championship, they have to do it at Georgia. Their fans are going to rock Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But hey, anything is possible. However, I am primarily hoping that we show up ready to play, and compete. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 Author No. 13 Share Posted September 1, 2022 (edited) On 8/31/2022 at 10:39 PM, Mic said: Odds makers for the big betting houses don't often lose money. When you see one team is a 17.5 favorite over another, there's usually good reasons. Right now, the Ducks would do well to cover the points. If they do, they'll be rewarded by the pollsters. I'm hoping for something in the neighborhood of 20-10 Georgia. Oregon could pull an upset but it's not likely. If Ore does win, it will be a squeaker. . Sorry I'm a math guy so I have to quibble slightly on "the Ducks would do well to cover". The spread is actually set as a 50/50 mark for the betting houses. Equal odds of covering or not. That's why betting on the spread exists instead of just the Moneyline (straight up bet on win or lose). If you look here you will see that betting on Oregon to beat the 16.5 point spread pays out -108 (92.5%) and betting on Georgia to make the spread pays out -112 (89.2%). The payouts fluctuate based on the betting volume to ensure the house has a safe risk profile incase the line is soft. The money line indeed has Oregon winning at +550 (550% return) and Georgia winning at -800 (12.5% return), so Georgia is very much the "safe bet" to win this game. In case you are wondering Vegas has the predicted score at Georgia 34 - Oregon 17. Using the nominal score if Oregon gets a pick-six off one Georgia scoring drive the expected final score would then be Georgia 27 - Oregon 24. Picks for a TD are however rare events... Going the other way a Georgia pick-six makes the expected score Georgia 41 - Oregon 10. Too bad McKinley went to the NFL. Edited September 1, 2022 by Duck Fan 76 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 14 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 9/1/2022 at 11:55 AM, Duck Fan 76 said: Sorry I'm a math guy so I have to quibble slightly on "the Ducks would do well to cover". The spread is actually set as a 50/50 mark for the betting houses. Equal odds of covering or not. That's why betting on the spread exists instead of just the Moneyline (straight up bet on win or lose). If you look here you will see that betting on Oregon to beat the 16.5 point spread pays out -108 (92.5%) and betting on Georgia to make the spread pays out -112 (89.2%). The payouts fluctuate based on the betting volume to ensure the house has a safe risk profile incase the line is soft. The money line indeed has Oregon winning at +550 (550% return) and Georgia winning at -800 (12.5% return), so Georgia is very much the "safe bet" to win this game. In case you are wondering Vegas has the predicted score at Georgia 34 - Oregon 17. Oh... my head is spinning. I have never been able to quite understand how this all works but in the final analysis, I guess what I should have said is "there are reasons why the oddsmakers have Georgia winning by 17". If they thought it was going to be a close game, they would have set the o/u closer. If they thought Oregon had a good chance to win, the o/u would be -3.5 or such. I guess if Oregon wins by any score, this would be considered a major upset, given the 17 point spread. And if Oregon loses by 10 or less instead, they should get some amount of credit for that from the pollsters. I can see them remaining in the top 12 if they lose by <10 (depending on other game outcomes). Would you agree? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 Author No. 15 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 9/1/2022 at 12:15 PM, Mic said: Would you agree? I do agree. If Georgia scores 27 or under then then either Georgia's offense sputtered or Oregon's defense overperformed. If Oregon scores 24 then either Georgia's defense sputtered or Oregon's offense overperformed. The narrative that effects the polls will have more to do with the look and feel of the game (eye test for analysts and announcers). 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 16 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 9/1/2022 at 11:55 AM, Duck Fan 76 said: Too bad McKinley went to the NFL. Well, we still have Bennett Williams and Trikweze Bridges. They'll have to git 'er dun for us this year. Lanning's new (to us) Mint Defense might cause enough confusion to give them a chance to improve on McKinley's performance (6 ints) last year. I think Williams had 3. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 Author No. 17 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Some Auburn fans will be rooting for Oregon tomorrow. If Bo plays well it helps Oregon recruiting in the deep south. Goodman: All eyes on Bo Nix to start the 2022 football season WWW.AL.COM Welcome to the college football season where everyone in Alabama can cheer for a quarterback at Oregon. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 Author No. 18 Share Posted September 2, 2022 We'll see tomorrow... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
