duckoflife No. 50 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 12:09 PM, Duck Fan 76 said: I don't think "sabotage" is the correct word, I hate to quibble but what Oregon needs to do is exactly what it is doing which is to stand up for it's own best interests. I think it's very likely that the reason GK hasn't got a deal inked is that it's not easy to get the remaining 10 schools to agree with the deals on the table. GK might be the negotiator but the school presidents are the deciders here. What does Oregon want? To stay in the PAC and get enough media revenue from decent time slots to kick this ball down the field and see what's what in 3-5 years. What does a broadcast network want? To lock in Oregon and the PAC at a value for 10+ years. GK just wants to keep the PAC alive. Where is the likely deal going to land? Who knows but we have multiple professionals at work here and Larry Scott isn't in the room so we just have to wait and see at this point. What does a home run look like for Oregon? Marquee matchups offered on a competing network that eat into ESPN and Fox timeslots making them pay a hefty price for not taking Oregon and the rest of the PAC off the table. How likely is this? Who even knows outside of the negotiating room. I will say that discussion about bringing in SDSU is meant to make Fox grind its teeth about splitting the SoCal media market into PAC fans and BIG10 fans. What does a manageable deal look like for Oregon? 25+ million in a short term contract (3-5 years). Aka, Punt! What does a disaster look like? The PAC12 network. Aka, use Bo as a running back late in the season. There's also a possibility that a major shakeup could occur at some point. Disney could sell ESPN and decide to revive ABC sports as a third major competitor. CBS sports could find it's butt in the dark and decide to compete with ESPN and Fox instead of picking up breadcrumbs. Maybe PBS is interested in CFB. I think the streaming only discussion is mostly smoke to be honest and possibly part of a negotiating tactic for GK regarding bringing in more competition to Fox and ESPN. I'd honestly sooner believe the PAC12 network is moving to the pay-per view model. Noducknewby was suggesting that the Four Corners might have to go to the Big 12 before Oregon and UW can move to the Big 10, because the Big 10 doesn't want bad PR from destroying the PAC. If that's the case, than Oregon and Washington's best interest seriously would be to make the TV contract something like $20 million and/or on some platform like Apple. Oregon and Washington's self interest would literally be to make the PAC's deal as terrible as possible. Anything to get the Four Corners to jump to the Big 12. So then Oregon and Washington can GTHO of the conference too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 51 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 1:59 PM, duckoflife said: There were posts on CSNBBS saying that the ACC is making about $37 million a year. (And that might be for 2021-22- it might be even higher for the 2022-23 school year.) It might be $20 million + $17 million from the ACC network- I don't remember for sure. All-in I believe that a number of ACC teams such as Clemson that sells out an 80K stadium for every home game could make $37M a year, no doubt. But pursuant to Sports Business Journal the media deal is as I noted above. And the only way the media deal can be re-negotiated before 2036 is for Notre Dame to join the conference as a full-time football member. I appreciate any and all suggestions that would improve the value of the Ducks' upcoming media deal including perhaps a CFB, CBB 'partnership' with the ACC. But would such a partnership convince ESPN to pay more money than it is willing to pay now to both conferences and how long would it take for future schedules to open to allow for a combined ACC/Pac-10 combined CFB and CBB conference? And in light of the PO going to 12 teams does it make sense to for the Pac-10 to have more teams in the way of making the 12-team field? Again, great thoughts on your part; any and all options have to be explored. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 52 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) However, what will FOX pay for the Oregon/UW inventory? FOX has locked ESPN out of B1G broadcast rights and it is FOX that would have to agree to welcome Oregon and UW and also agree with how much to pay each school for their respective media rights. It's sad but the media today is driving the future of the Moneyball sports and not college presidents. I think the point you make is excellent and I wholly agree that the way to the B1G could well be made easier if the 4-corner schools bolt to the B12. Edited February 23, 2023 by Jon Joseph Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 No. 53 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 12:39 PM, duckoflife said: I don't agree. I hear you, I'm saying that "sabotage" isn't the right word if that's honestly what's best for Oregon. The remainder of my comment was centered around my position that Oregon doesn't actually see going to the BIG10 as a desirable outcome. I maintain that Oregon sees that as a worse position then staying in the PAC for at least the next 3-5 years and continuing to increase its relative value. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duckoflife No. 54 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 3:39 PM, Jon Joseph said: All-in I believe that a number of ACC teams such as Clemson that sells out an 80K stadium for every home game could make $37M a year, no doubt. But pursuant to Sports Business Journal the media deal is as I noted above. And the only way the media deal can be re-negotiated before 2036 is for Notre Dame to join the conference as a full-time football member. I appreciate any and all suggestions that would improve the value of the Ducks' upcoming media deal including perhaps a CFB, CBB 'partnership' with the ACC. But would such a partnership convince ESPN to pay more money than it is willing to pay now to both conferences and how long would it take for future schedules to open to allow for a combined ACC/Pac-10 combined CFB and CBB conference? And in light of the PO going to 12 teams does it make sense to for the Pac-10 to have more teams in the way of making the 12-team field? Again, great thoughts on your part; any and all options have to be explored. The theories about UW and Oregon moving to the ACC are that UW and Oregon would join the ACC alone, probably without any partners. (At the very most also with Stanford and Cal) It wouldn't be some sort of PAC-ACC merger or non-conference scheduling agreement, as you're seeming to suggest. There is some question about whether UW and Oregon would be enough for ESPN to re-negotiate its contract with the ACC. (Coupled with issues like the existing ACC members now getting less frequent games against ND with ND's 5 games now being split among 16 rather than 14 members, ACC teams getting less frequent games against other ACC teams who they actually have traditional relationships with, travel costs from adding UO and UW, etc.). But if the PAC as a whole can get such poor TV contract offers, it's even less likely that the ACC could get more money from adding the entirety of the PAC than from just adding UO and UW. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 55 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Who leaked that the Pac-12 was talking to Apple? And why that is important The leak to the New York Post that Apple is a potential media partner for the Pac-12 certainly coated this story in intrigue. The fallout was quick and ugly. Who leaked it? Why was it leaked? How did Post reporter Andrew Marchand find and expand this Apple/Pac-12 news? Was it a deliberate move to examine the fallout? Or could it be sabotage from within or without the Pac-12? Who leaked that the Pac-12 was talking to Apple? And why that is important WWW.DESERET.COM The New York Post story of Pac-12 negotiations with Apple landed like a ‘lead balloon’ around the league. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckhart No. 56 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Pac 10 schools should just join the b12 now as its going to eventually happen anyway with there super conferences. If something was more viable for the short and long term it would have happened by now, imo. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 No. 57 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 2:44 PM, Duckhart said: Pac 10 schools should just join the b12 now as its going to eventually happen anyway with there super conferences. There are two super conferences and they are the SEC and the Big-10. Two super conferences... and two major sports networks. If there was a third viable major sports network then we'd probably see a third super conference emerge. One thing I'm confidant in is that all of CFB isn't going to collapse into just 32 schools playing in the SEC and the Big-10. The market will support plenty of major programs outside of the Big-10 and the SEC especially with the 12 team playoff. The Big-12 is in pretty desperate circumstances right now despite the seemingly solid footing of their media deal and is spending a lot of effort pointing at the PAC to keep everyone from noticing that their house is currently on fire. The ACC is going to be fine, they have plenty of assets to keep them going for the long haul. The power five is likely sticking around for awhile. Here are some numbers from 2020 that put the media contract slice into perspective. The Pac-12 universities that could lose the most money from canceled sports season WWW.KGW.COM The Oregon Ducks football program brought in $72.1 million and the Oregon State Beavers collected $35.8 million. UofO athletics brought in $108.5 million a year with a lowly $72 million from football. The crappy 2011 media contract was about $21 million of that $72 million... so does Oregon NEED to jump to the BIG12 for an extra $10 million a year? This is why I say the $25 million a year contract for 3-5 years is a good outcome, it would make the BIG-12 move worth an eye watering $5 million a year. They probably lose more than that at Autzen cleaning the plumbing out for all those terrible Nacho's. Increasing the media contract by $5 million is a small improvement but more than fine considering Oregon isn't carrying significant debt for athletics. UCLA is over a $100 million in the hole so they were FORCED into the Big-10. It remains to be seen how the PAC will come out of things but for my money the PAC will be just fine with Oregon, Washington, Utah, Stanford and now Colorado to entertain fans. The rest of the schools are good enough to stay but they just aren't likely to emerge as major assets. I actually think bringing in SDSU and SMU makes sense and I'm a fan of that plan. They don't bring in much directly for their fanbase but it means their regions will be interested in watching PAC games and it gives an area for the PAC to grow more fans in. 2 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 58 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 3:53 PM, Duck Fan 76 said: They probably lose more than that at Autzen cleaning the plumbing out for all those terrible Nacho's. This has been a fantastic thread for perspectives and information provided....and your research and observation adds so much to the discussion. But some humor thrown in as you did--makes that it even more enjoyable. No Nachos please... 2 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 59 Share Posted February 24, 2023 If Pac-12 crumbles, don't expect SEC to covet the scraps. Listen to Greg Sankey | Toppmeyer SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey occasionally offers a valuable peek at his hand, and Sankey’s comments earlier this month point to the SEC’s lack of desire for table scraps, whether that be the Huskies, Ducks or any other far-flung program housed in a conference standing on tenuous footing. Sankey jabbed at the Big Ten after it added UCLA and Southern Cal to stretch its B1G footprint from Los Angeles to Piscataway, New Jersey. Contrast that with the SEC’s heist of Oklahoma and Texas, schools that fit the conference’s identity and enhance its already robust football brand, while increasing the SEC’s media rights appeal and boosting its strength across all sports. “We really haven't expanded our geographic reach,” Sankey told the SEC Network earlier this month. “Our longest trip will be from Columbia, South Carolina, to Austin, Texas. … You realize that’s actually shorter than what will be the shortest trip for the L.A. schools, when they move to the Big Ten?” If Pac-12 crumbles, don't expect SEC to covet the scraps. Listen to Greg Sankey | Toppmeyer WWW.TENNESSEAN.COM The Pac-12's sunsetting media rights deal makes it vulnerable to raids, but SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey has not hinted at any... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 No. 60 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 4:39 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said: We really haven't expanded our geographic reach While a lot of people from the north might lump "Texas" in as a southern state most southerners wouldn't include them or Oklahoma in their cultural identity. While Sankey is correct with regard to to the distances traveled adding Texas and Oklahoma or to the SEC was purely motivated by money. The SEC's history is storied and the character of the teams from 1930's is the SEC's identity just like the character of the teams from the 1920's PAC and the 1890s Big 10. Sankey is sitting on top of the heap and he knows it. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave23 No. 61 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 1:09 PM, Duck Fan 76 said: I'd honestly sooner believe the PAC12 network is moving to the pay-per view model. I think this would be for the better as they could offer streaming direct to consumer. I certainly would pay $10 a month for it. I have no idea what the subscription numbers would be like or if it would be feasible. If you could get 1 million subscribe that's $120 million a year plus the advertisement of $20m for a total of $140m. This also has more upside due to be able to reach a larger audience unlike the current media deal. Likewise the advertising dollars should go up as well making the now limited viewership into the entirety of the potential PAC 12 Fans. Maybe it could work? Currently the PAC 12 Networks only pays schools 2.5m a year on revenue of 120m with operating cost of 85m. (19-20 most current numbers I could find) The current deal for distribution rights is 96m the rest is made up of advertising and other. The Pac-12 Networks has all the infrastructure in place including the streaming platform and all the production, so no large capital upgrades are needed. The expenses that would go up are the cloud computing needs but luckily those are easily scalable and will directly correlate to viewership. Selling the marquee matchups to ESPN and going our own way on streaming may just make up the revenue gap of a less than desirable ESPN contract. The potential downside for the schools is a loss of 2.5m on the upside revenue and exposure should increase substantially over time. The PAC 12 Networks is not a bad idea It's the poorly negotiated media contracts that doomed them. The PAC 12 Networks could be a way for the conference to go independent of the big media for the less than desirable games and non-revenue sports that ESPN or Fox will never show. I'm in retail and the high-end products make the most money but there's not as many of them and the substantial amount of low end products pay the bills. Where can I sign up! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckhart No. 62 Share Posted February 25, 2023 This is what I see down the road as it makes a lot of since in mind. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjes4bqwrH9AhXsMjQIHQsGA6UQFnoECEIQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fspinnablesports.com%2F2023%2F01%2F23%2Fcollege-football-expansion-what-if-there-were-super-conferences%2F&usg=AOvVaw28i5EMZSoqQH7-vqDDiaUG Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
