Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted April 19, 2023 ESPN has released its first 2023 edition of the FPI. Rankings are adjusted as the season progresses. Frankly, I believe ESPN's SP+ rankings to be far more accurate than the fricken(fraudulent) Power Index. Here are the top 10 and other Pac-12 schools not ranked in the top 10. 1. Ohio State - I watched the Buckeyes' spring game and the 2 starting OL tackles looked like matadors; Ole! 2. Alabama - A new QB, a new OC, a new DC - Bama is getting a lot of love based on recruiting but I think LSU wins the SEC West for the second year in a row, 3. Georgia - A cakewalk schedule by SEC standards has the Dawgs in line for a Three-Pete. 4. LSU - IN 2023 I think Daniels will be the best QB in the SEC. 5. Texas - I've seen this movie before. 6. Michigan - Seems low for a team with a lot of returning starters and a 2-game 'schedule.' At Penn State and versus Ohio State. 7. USC - Don't look now but Riley is bringing in three 300-pound plus experienced DL guys from the portal. But will The Grinch coach them up? 8. Clemson - Can Dabo stop the decline? 9. Notre Dame - Seems high for a school that is replacing its QB, and OC and having to play Ohio State, USC, and playing at Clemson. 10. Penn State - I think PSU is a very legit dark horse to win the B1G and make the Final 4. Pac-12 other than USC: T 13 OREGON - Ducks are tied with FSU. 15. Utah - Will Rising's knee hold up? 21. Washington - Sorry Ducks fans but I would have UW ahead of Utah. 24. Oregon State - 3 Pac-10 teams in the top 25 ain't shabby. 41. UCLA - Pretty low for a team not playing a decent out-of-conference opponent (OOC) and having a relatively easy Pac-12 schedule. 51. CAL - I did not expect to see CAL this close to the top 50. 59, Arizona - Didn't help that he lost 3 starters to USC but I think Fisch's team finishes better than this. 62. Washington State - Wouldn't it be nice to see Wazzu upset Wisconsin back-to-back; and this time in Pullman? 64. ASU - Not a lot of love for Dilly. 71. Stanford - Replacing David Shaw with an FCS coach does not move the needle. Does anyone at Stanford care? 94 Colorado - This should have been a Prime number. Oregon's P5 OOC opponent? 22. Texas Tech - This will be a tough game against a fired-up opponent in a sold-out stadium in Lubbock and friend Tyler Shough at the controls. Do you think these rankings are reasonably accurate? Frankly, with the number of excellent and very good returning QBs, I think that the Pac-12 overall is underrated. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 2 Share Posted April 20, 2023 The fact they have the Ducks ahead of the Huskies will infuriate many in purple... 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake Moderator No. 3 Share Posted April 20, 2023 (edited) The PAC 12 will be very competitive this year. It will not be a cake walk for anyone to get to the PAC 12 Championship. They are crowning the Trojan boys as the top team. “Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.” It gives me a good reason to cheer for almost any team that plays against them. Autzen will be the place to be on 11/11/23. Oh my, that is also Veteran’s day. Edited April 20, 2023 by Drake 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartan2785 No. 4 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Media is soooooo hoping that USC is back and gets into the playoff, they are begging to slobber all over them. If both Oregon and USC are undefeated going into that game on 11/11 then it will be the biggest home game in the history of Autzen I think considering the circumstances of where the league is. Oregon is an interesting prospect, could take the next step, could fall back, or could stay where they are. How much does Lanning learn from his first year in charge, is Stein a step up or down from Dillingham, how does the O-line hold up. I feel confident that our defense will be better, I just question how the O-line is going to be. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nevada Dawg No. 5 Share Posted April 20, 2023 A lot of Dawg fans are scoffing at the power index this year. I think that my Dawgs have a number of question marks as they essentially have to replace the outside linebacker corps on defense and a QB on offense. I don't know about how the OLBs will fare, but by November and the first real challenge against Tennessee, the young talent in that room should be humming. As for the QB, anyone who watched the Georgia Spring Game on Saturday almost had to come away impressed with Carson Beck. His throws were crisp, accurate, and he now has far more receivers to throw to than any QB at Georgia in recent memory. A lot can happen between now and championship week in December, but I'll not be shocked if the Dawgs have climbed to the top of the heap again. Oh, and I am on board with Jon in thinking that LSU wins the SEC West again. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 6 Share Posted April 20, 2023 On 4/20/2023 at 12:12 AM, Drake said: The PAC 12 will be very competitive this year. It will not be a cake walk for anyone to get to the PAC 12 Championship. They are crowning the Trojan boys as the top team. “Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.” It gives me a good reason to cheer for almost any team that plays against them. Autzen will be the place to be on 11/11/23. Oh my, that is also Veteran’s day. Great take on the conference being extremely competitive in 2023; so much so that I think no team finishes with fewer than 2 losses and the Pac-12 champion will again, miss the final Final 4. 11/11 could be one of if not the toughest and most expensive tickets in Oregon football history. I'd love to see Troy lose every game but for the good of this game and eyeballs watching, would it not be sweet if both teams came in undefeated? Calling College Gameday. Could this be the last time Troy and the Ducks match up outside of the playoff? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDuck Moderator No. 7 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Reveiwing the Oregon Ducks' Football Power Index ranking since 2005 Life for an Oregon Duck fan has been quite eventful over the past couple of decades. After going for decades as a relatively irrelevant team on the national landscape, Mike Bellotti turned things around at the start of the Melinium and a rise to prominence quickly followed. The start of the 2010s brought multiple trips to the National Championship game and a pair of Rose Bowl victories, but Oregon has also seen brutal losses at the hands of Auburn and Ohio State, as well as a 4-win season that ended in no bowl game and a fired coach just years later. This past week, ESPN published its updated Football Power Index (FPI) which measures team strength based on 20,000 simulations as explained on their website. This year the Ducks have the following preseason FPI ratings: Oregon Football: Reveiwing the Ducks’ FPI ranking since 2005 DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM The Ducks are rated prominently in terms of FPI this offseason. How does that compare to the past couple of decades? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 8 Share Posted April 20, 2023 On 4/20/2023 at 1:30 AM, Nevada Dawg said: A lot of Dawg fans are scoffing at the power index this year. I think that my Dawgs have a number of question marks as they essentially have to replace the outside linebacker corps on defense and a QB on offense. I don't know about how the OLBs will fare, but by November and the first real challenge against Tennessee, the young talent in that room should be humming. As for the QB, anyone who watched the Georgia Spring Game on Saturday almost had to come away impressed with Carson Beck. His throws were crisp, accurate, and he now has far more receivers to throw to than any QB at Georgia in recent memory. A lot can happen between now and championship week in December, but I'll not be shocked if the Dawgs have climbed to the top of the heap again. Oh, and I am on board with Jon in thinking that LSU wins the SEC West again. ND, I watched and I was also very much impressed with Beck. The schedule works out great for all the new UGA starters to be ready to play ball when UGA trips to Knoxville. I think Tennessee regresses significantly at QB in 2023. In total agreement with you that the FPI is squirrelly at best. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 9 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Which teams have best shot at Pac-12 Championship in 2023? In the final year of the Pac-12 conference, as we currently know it, we are expecting as competitive and entertaining of a football season as we’ve seen in quite some time. With schools like USC, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Oregon State, and UCLA all presenting a legitimate case that they could make some noise this season, the race for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game is going to be highly contentious. There are some early favorites for a spot in Las Vegas, with the Trojans, Ducks, Huskies, and Utes all ranking highest in the preseason polls at the moment. But one method we always like to use when peering ahead at the future is ESPN’s Football Power Index. For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” Virtually, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end. The FPI predicts end-of-season records, and the probability that a team will become bowl eligible, or win the conference championship. So how do they see the Pac-12 playing out this year? It might look a little bit different than you would have expected. Breaking down Pac-12 conference championship odds via ESPN FPI DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM You could argue that 5-6 teams have a legitimate shot at the Pac-12 title this year. Who has the best odds to take it down? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 10 Share Posted April 21, 2023 On 4/21/2023 at 10:59 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said: Which teams have best shot at Pac-12 Championship in 2023? In the final year of the Pac-12 conference, as we currently know it, we are expecting as competitive and entertaining of a football season as we’ve seen in quite some time. With schools like USC, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Oregon State, and UCLA all presenting a legitimate case that they could make some noise this season, the race for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game is going to be highly contentious. There are some early favorites for a spot in Las Vegas, with the Trojans, Ducks, Huskies, and Utes all ranking highest in the preseason polls at the moment. But one method we always like to use when peering ahead at the future is ESPN’s Football Power Index. For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” Virtually, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end. The FPI predicts end-of-season records, and the probability that a team will become bowl eligible, or win the conference championship. So how do they see the Pac-12 playing out this year? It might look a little bit different than you would have expected. Breaking down Pac-12 conference championship odds via ESPN FPI DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM You could argue that 5-6 teams have a legitimate shot at the Pac-12 title this year. Who has the best odds to take it down? Thanks, Pa. I muffed it; CU did get a prime number. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartan2785 No. 11 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Yeah, I would have Georgia above Bama, can't really see the reason why you would not, both have new QBs, and you have more stability in the coaching staff with Georgia. Other things that I see are UW being much higher, UCLA being higher, Notre Dame being lower, and Texas falling short of expectations as usual. I'm a bit surprised that Colorado is so low, I figured they might have a talent injection from the guys following Deion, not that I was expecting a huge jump, but it seems like the QB position received an upgrade, and they could have a stud at CB. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 12 Share Posted April 22, 2023 Ducks favored to win all but 2 games in 2023 season, per ESPN's FPI It may be incredibly early in the year to be making any bold predictions or proclamations; the Oregon Ducks haven’t even played their annual spring game yet. However, we’re in the business of predictions and analysis, so forgive us for looking ahead and trying to figure out how many games the Oregon Ducks are going to win in the 2023 season. Once the schedule was released back in February, we looked at the matchups, the order in which they came, and the likelihood that the Ducks make it out of each week unscathed. Our end result was an incredibly impressive season for Dan Lanning and his team, which could put them in the Pac-12 Championship and potentially, in the College Football Playoff as well. Our predictions were based on opinions and gathered information from talking to coaches, players, and team sources while watching practices every week. Recently ESPN’s Football Power Index released their schedule predictions for every team in the nation, largely using numbers as the reasoning. In short, they looked at Oregon’s 2023 schedule and predicted what percent chance the Ducks have to win each game. Throughout the year, the numbers will change based on past performance, injuries, and a whole myriad of variables that take place throughout the season. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say this spring... Oregon Football: Ducks favored in all but 2 games, per ESPN FPI DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Ducks favored to win all but 2 games in 2023 season, per ESPN’s FPI. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
