Rufus

I don’t think staying in the PAC is viable unless we have no choice. Here are my concerns: 1. The B1G just announced conference teams are now no longer required to play P5 non-conference games. Combine this with the fact that west coast recruiting is already covered with away games at USC and UCLA, it’s a safe bet few - if any - B1G teams will want to schedule Oregon. The SEC is likely expanding to a 9 game schedule and several schools already have a rivalry game with an ACC school. It’s a safe bet few - if any - SEC schools will want to schedule Oregon in a non-conference game. 2. Replacing USC and UCLA with G5 schools will weaken the perception of the PAC 12. Having few - if any - B1G or SEC teams interested in a non-conference game with the Ducks will weaken the perception of the total schedule. Very few at large CFP bids will come from the PAC. 3. The PAC 12 Champion is only guaranteed a spot in the CFP for two years. There is nothing to say the rules won’t change to benefit the B1G and SEC. I can see the P2 making deals with G5 conferences to pay them X amount of dollars for regular season away games in return for agreeing to whatever the B1G and SEC want to see happen to the CFP after the first two years. 4. The SEC and B1G will figure out how to monopolize NIL deals with the major sponsors. “Hey Fortune 500 companies, you want to brand yourself nationwide in college football? Ok, sign this exclusive NIL agreement with the B1G. You can decide which players you want to work with on this, but they must come from our conference.” 5. The B1G and SEC will become larger and more powerful when they raid the top brands and markets in the ACC. Even if Oregon sticks it out in the P12, we will fall further behind from this fact alone. The good news in all of this is that Oregon is the 7th largest fan base in college football. The B1G is very likely to add us at some point. This does not end well if any other scenario plays out.

One thing I find interesting about conference realignment….. When Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving the Big 12 to join the SEC, the Big 12 publicly attacked the American Athletic Conference. Not once did they publicly attack the SEC. When USC and UCLA announced they were leaving the PAC 12 to join the B1G, the PAC 12 publicly attacked the Big 12. Not once did they publicly attack the B1G. The upheaval in college sports is from the B1G and SEC consolidating power, but not once are they attacked by the conferences who are losing money because of these actions. Instead, the attacks go to other conferences who are or at least are perceived as being weaker. The PAC 12 might be able to hold out and not lose anyone to the Big 12. I don’t doubt that. But the PAC 12 will only exist in its current form as long as the B1G wants it to exist in its current form. Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State might see benefit to remaining in the PAC if the B1G hold off on poaching Oregon, Washington, Stanford or Cal. However, there is no doubt in my mind that Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal will jump to the B1G if the B1G wants to add any or all 4. The only thing stopping the PAC 12 from becoming the Mountain West Plus is the future ambitions of the B1G. Yet, the PAC 12 will not dare attack the B1G. At least 4 of the 10 are hoping for a golden ticket to the B1G. My thoughts on where things stand…the PAC 12 gets their media rights contract without losing anymore teams…for now. The contract will be for 4-6 years. This contract will be the last contract in which the 10 schools remain together. However, adding SDSU and SMU now will allow the PAC to not be in full crisis mode when the B1G come calling in a few years. The B1G will want to finalize its western flank before turning its attention to the southeast/ACC around 2030. Step 1 - PAC 12 signs a 4-6 year media rights contract. Step 2 - PAC 12 expands with G5 schools to stabilize. Step 3 - B1G integrates USC and UCLA into the conference. Step 4 - Near the end of the decade, the B1G announces the addition of whatever combination of Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal that the B1G wants. Step 5 - The PAC either loses the 4 corner schools to the Big 12, or there is a full on merger of the PAC 12 and Big 12 minus Stanford and Cal. Stanford and Cal either are wanted by the B1G or they go independent. Step 6 - The B1G integrates the new western schools into the B1G by 2030. Step 7 - It’s now 2030 and that ACC GOR is only six years away from ending. Time for the B1G and SEC to pounce. Both conferences are laying out their next moves. Step 8 - Sometime in the early 2030s, the SEC and B1G both add whoever they want from the ACC. A couple ACC schools may get to choose which conference to join. A few ACC schools will only be wanted by one or the other. Step 9 - 2036. The new look SEC and B1G. The remains of the ACC either add G5 schools or consolidate into the Big 12. Step 10 - The P2 rule over all. Playoff rules and NIL rules will work to their favor. Wildcard: Notre Dame. Remain independent and lose out on millions of dollars or join the B1G. Logically, this is the only end game scenario I can see happening.

If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC all play each other in a given year, there is no need for those schools to worry about strength of schedule. Likewise, if Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers or Illinois play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC all in the same season in any given year, they need a schedule that will make a bowl eligible season at least realistic.

He is the guy who publicly said USC would join the B1G three months before it happened. At the time, he just posted on Twitter I believe. He is from Minnesota and last fall started a YouTube show called Peak Around the Corner. He isn’t an insider but has connections that give him information. ‘I am a nobody’: Meet the Minnesota fan who signaled USC's Big Ten move months ago WWW.LATIMES.COM Greg Flugaur says he's a nobody. Perhaps that's true, but the well-connected Minnesota fan was the first to report USC's interest in joining the Big Ten.

Greg Flugaur mentioned during his last live broadcast a few days ago that something major was about to happen. He wouldn’t say what it was and didn’t want to be the one to say what it was, but said it would happen by his next live broadcast.

Regarding keeping west coast recruits in the PAC… Technically, any future California recruit that goes to the B1G will be playing in their home territory conference.

If the B1G is not interested in Oregon, we need to make do with what we have in the PAC. If the B1G is interested in Oregon, we need to join the B1G. If it was as simple as playoff access, Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA would have remained in the Big 12 and PAC 12 respectively. It was assumed the playoffs would eventually expand even before these teams made the move. Keep in mind that playoff rules are only in place for 2023 and 2024. I predict the SEC and B1G will throw their weight around to change the rules come 2025. So we don’t even know if access to the playoffs will be easier in the PAC after the 2024 season.

Stewart Mandel @slmandel · 1h The interesting thing about the Big Ten hiring a former TV exec is that theoretically the TV stuff is behind them for 7 years. Unless of course they're planning to add more schools (cough, cough, Oregon & Washington) and need to package another rights deal sooner.

My pick for B1G Commissioner: Mark Silverman. He’s the perfect fit to oversee a coast to coast B1G expansion. Hopefully whoever gets it will advocate on the Ducks behalf to the B1G universities. If Oregon ranks 7th now on tv ratings, imagine what the ranking would be in the B1G with better start times, better opponents, and better media coverage.

Oregon is higher on this list than I would have thought. Really surprised to see Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia Tech on this list.

The CW doesn’t have any channels in the states of Washington or Arizona. I don’t know how that will work out unless the CW starts channels in those states. If what was said on The Monty Show is true, PAC games won’t air on all CW channels nationwide, only the channels in the PAC footprint. So these would be regionally covered games if true.

I knew the PAC was screwed the day the 10 remaining universities released the statement saying they were committed to each other and would announce a new media rights deal soon. That was February 13. Nearly two months later and it’s still not “the very near future”. The 10 Pac-12 universities look forward to consummating successful media rights deal(s) in the very near future. Based upon positive conversations with multiple potential media rights partners over the past weeks, we remain highly confident in our future growth and success as a conference and united in our commitment to one another.”

I’m curious to see how the B1G and SEC handle out of conference schedules going forward. For now, they have signed contracts years in advance. Before the seismic shift. Will the B1G teams have any interest in west coast non-conference games now that they will play at USC and UCLA? If Ohio State is playing Michigan, Penn State and USC in the same season, would the Buckeyes even want to play a top tier non-conference game? If Alabama is playing LSU, Georgia and Oklahoma in the same season, would the Tide even want to play a top tier non-conference game? Likewise, would the bottom feeders of the B1G and SEC even want a top non-conference game now that they have to play more traditional powers in conference? I see a future of Big 12 and ACC teams on the PAC non-conference schedules. And some ACC teams won’t be available. FSU plays Florida, Clemson plays South Carolina. Kentucky plays Louisville.

There were multiple opportunities to raid the Big 12, but only Colorado was added. When Texas fell through, the PAC should have remained aggressive. What if the PAC let Texas keep its Longhorn Network? That was the only thing that stopped the formation of the PAC 16. Then, after the creation of the PAC 12 Network, the networks merged into one under the ESPN brand? Would the PAC 16 have had the same clout as the B1G and SEC? Would USC and UCLA left if they had Texas and Oklahoma as conference rivals and were possibly making the same money as the B1G and SEC?

Here is one...... Remember about ten years ago when the B1G and PAC12 were going to schedule an all-sport rivalry with each other? Jim Delaney called the agreement "expanding without expanding". The PAC 12 backed out of the deal before the first game was scheduled. Think of the ratings the football games would have had, especially if they were all played in the same weekend in a PAC-B1G Challenge.

I started a thread. Feel free to make that the first reply!

What are the key mistakes the PAC 10/12 has made over the past 15 years? Every time I think about it, the list grows longer in my head. I thought I would start a thread. I don’t want to come off as super negative, so I’ll let others start this off and chime in later. However, there have been many critical mistakes that led us to where we are today.

I’m not optimistic at all. I keep going over and over in my head all of the mistakes the PAC has made over the past 15 years. Every time I think about it, the list becomes longer. I should start a thread on this topic.

Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin, UCLA, USC. Preferably as conference games.

Part 4 is out - Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 4–How Strong Are PAC12 TV Markets? - ESPN 960 Sports ESPN960SPORTS.COM This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your...

Does the PAC have a two-year notice rule that requires members to give a 2 year notice before leaving the conference? If so, I’m sure there will be some sort of exit fee for Oregon to leave next summer even if no media contract has been signed. USC and UCLA gave a full 2 year notice and then some.

I agree with airspace. Those are the only schools in the running to ever join the B1G. PAC - Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal ACC - Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Independent - Notre Dame Doesn’t mean all of them are coming, just that those are the only ones the B1G would even consider.

I’ve been of the mindset to give GK the benefit of the doubt. He inherited a mess. However, he has made critical mistakes that can’t be blamed on LS, namely his reactions after USC and UCLA announced they were moving to the B1G. When the Big 12 was left for dead in the summer of 2021, they had a few bad news cycles. However, they quickly rebounded. Within a few months, they were viewed as trendy based on how they responded to disaster. The PAC 12 is now 9 months in of daily bad news cycles with no end in sight. At some point, you have to place blame on the leader of the organization. He has no control of his narrative. The Big 12 commissioner controls his conference’s narrative. From this standpoint, GK holds the blame here. Honestly, could even LS have done worse in his response over the last 9 months?

'Nothing to suggest' new Pac-12 media rights deal is near with 15 months left on current contract WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM This just keeps dragging on and on. I’m not optimistic about what a final deal will look like.

I don’t think ticket sales would drop. There are plenty of B1G alumni in the Pacific Northwest that will buy up any available tickets. And the fan bases for several B1G schools travel well.