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Everything posted by David Marsh
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THURSDAY is the Next Step of a Raucous Recruiting Run!
David Marsh replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Arizona seems like they are dumping all their NIL on Rushing. Division Street isn't going to over pay or get into a bidding war. Especially not in July. Doesn't mean recruiting is over just yet. It's not even over after they've signed with the portal these days. We may just have to wait and see here to see if Lanning can win him over by signing day. -
I would agree that getting a second PAC team into a 12 team playoff would be very difficult. The PAC has been the best conference at canabalizing itself for some time now. However, there is still talk about changing the number of conference games to 8. The ACC and SEC are at 8 so we wouldn't be alone at 8 conference games. Also... We are losing two teams that have been in the middle to upper conference fairly regularly. USC and UCLA haven't been good in the last ten years outside of a couple seasons but they have alwaysade the schedule more difficult for the eventual conference champion. Replacing USC and UCLA with SDSU and SMU would ease the schedule a bit for at least the next five years (5 years being roughly the time for these programs to adjust to a bigger conference). I could see a pac-12 champ and a runner up making the playoff in the right circumstances. 2019 being the most recent example where this would have happened in a 12 team field. Oregon won the conference and Utah was runner up and both were ranked in the top 10. Utah was a near lock for the playoff that year if they won the conference, which they didn't. Neither were anywhere near good enough that year to sniff at the national championship game. Oregon's prevent offense saw to that even though we had a fantastic defense. So I believe it is possible to get 2 PAC teams into the playoff but it wouldn't be an every year occurrence at this time.
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I'd say that is a changing pattern. But I'd also say that Florida scheduling with Utah has a lot less precieved risk of a loss for Florida. At least on paper at the time of scheduling. I think Oregon probably has a real struggle because traveling to Autzen can definitely come with a loss. I mean even Oregon traveling can be scary... Look at Ohio State.
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I think short run... More money as a PAC-10 .... Long run I think they'll need SDSU and SMU who will both start as a bit of a drag as neither are going to field power five teams in football right away and football is the biggest moneymaker. But given 5 years, I think they'll both be on good shape with conference and building fan fan bases. Utah took a good 5 years to build up their football program. Colorado... Well they had a good season... And we'll have to see if they can have a second good season since joining the conference... But the funny thing is that Colorado was already power five!!!
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Depends on the deal. . From the sound of it the NIL money and bidding wars have gone down a lot this year from last year. A lot more money is being thrown at portal recruits and that makes more sense because they're the ones proven at the college level. Division street continues to play a smarter game when it comes to NIL from everything I've read. They are aiming at team retention (or at least retaining the Ayers they want) while bidding on recruits they want but not over paying. It sounds like Oregon will lose our on a few recruits this year because other team's NIL groups are dumping everything to grab a recruit and Division Street isn't playing the bidding war game, even though they could probably win it. In the end if you over pay for a 5 star who doesn't pan out... Is that winning? I know there are fans on other sites right now that are losing their minds that Oregon's nil isn't just going all in on every recruit but if we want to be competitive year after year... It's choosing those thresholds carefully.
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SDSU...You Owe the Mountain West Regardless
David Marsh replied to HDuck's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Oddly enough this could work out just fine for them. If the PAC gets their media deal together and announces it and then goes ahead and invites SDSU, SDSU can just leave the MWC. In a strange way it might even give the PAC more leverage with SDSU... They can potentially dictate how some of the payouts will work for them in the first year or two and SDSU will probably happily go along with it to ensure they have a home. -
The B1G Money is Greener, but is the Competition?
David Marsh replied to Jon Joseph's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
I browsed the article and I get so annoyed that it's all about games on primetime on east coast time. It seems to be a put down of the entire west coast.. Yes, there.are perception problems when west coast teams are always on after east coasters have gone to bed. I know for fans in the stadium 7pm start times suck... At home I kinda like them because I can do stuff during the day and then end my day with the ducks. And guess what... That's what it's like for east coasters at their primetime. Instead of bad mouthing how the pac-12 starts late ... Maybe these pundits should be saying "hey, the PAC starts late buts it's worth watching and staying up for" because it's called pac-12 after dark for a reason. It's a great product... It's just not an east coast product. -
Georgia Football Racks Up Allegations By AJC
David Marsh replied to Notalot's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Jimbo Fisher had a problem at FSU that reminds me of this. Jimbo didn't fix his program... He just left for a bigger paycheck. They hired Willie Taggart from us... So I'm cool with that. Granted, I've never really thought about it until now how bad that programs culture must of been when he took over it. -
QUAAACK! RB Da'Jaun Riggs is a Duck
David Marsh replied to Pennsylvania Duck's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
It's really hard to teach vision. I can see why the coaching staff wanted him. He's also a big back and with some training could be a real thumper on top of having some explosive speed. -
Has the Portal Solved Oregon’s FREAK Problems?
David Marsh replied to FishDuck Article's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Lanning's defense is a high end defense. It has proven to be one of the best in the country. However, it has some requirements and one being it needs those freak athletes to make it all work. So getting those athletes is key and the portal has helped fill those areas of need and its amazing how well Oregon has done via the portal so far. Looking forward to a top tier defense pair with a top tier offense. The dream of Oregon fans... a defense and offense that are both highly ranked. Could it finally happen? I really hope so. -
Holy Crap! Oregon's Unknown Defensive Backfield
David Marsh replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Don't need to when all the good and relevant tweets are already posted here for us. -
Here is something pretty funny, especially if Nix has a great season. The 2019 Auburn game may go down in history as two OREGON greats playing in the same game on opposite sides of the ball. I wish Oregon won that game and they really should have if not for the prevent offense. Herbert really should have made it to New York one of those seasons but he was held back so much. He's still an Oregon great though as it stands most of the records belong to Mariota or Herbert.
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Pac-12 2023 Strength of Schedule Rankings
David Marsh replied to Jon Joseph's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Gotta love how Colorado is deemed for having the hardest schedule because they are the worst team. But I suppose that makes sense. -
Should Oregon Move to the B1G? I’m Not Convinced
David Marsh replied to FishDuck Article's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Prestige is also subjective. I don't see the prestige of going to the B1G and I feel the PAC has its own prestige. Though some people just want to join the B1G to be relevant which is the prestige argument... It varies from person to person. A lot of those pundits push the B1G and tre SEC for the prestige.. or at least their perception of prestige. Oregon just needs to win a national championship and get them all to shut up a bit. The prestige argument can be debated... The money argument really can't, once we get actual numbers in a few years, because UCLA (out test case) will either make money or they won't (probably won't) but saying they are in aore prestigious conference... That can be argued (though I disagree). -
Should Oregon Move to the B1G? I’m Not Convinced
David Marsh replied to FishDuck Article's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
The only argument I feel that holds water for Oregon and Washington to join the B1G and leave the Pac is for the prestige. This assumes that the B1G is a more prestigious conference with better competition. If that is the line of reasoning someone wants to believe then sure, by that logic Oregon and Washington should join the B1G. But this argument that teams need to be good to get into the B1G is laughable because how many division (not conference, division) titles have Rutgers and Maryland won since they joined the B1G? How many did they win in their previous conferences? I don't know the answer to that second question but I am pretty sure very few. In the same vein since 2010 guess how many Pac-12 Championships have USC and UCLA won combined? It's ONE! Same time frame Oregon has won FIVE (2010 was in the Pac-10). Washington has won two. The strength of athletic programs doesn't matter to conference expansion. Thanks for the article post Jon. -
There aren't really any other viable options so it really is all about trying to find the next best. If the LA schools had stuck around I do think SDSU and SMU would have been targets for expansion regardless. SDSU feels like a no brainer because adding them really was a no brainer. I do feel like SMU is a steal the more I keep learning about them. They have a big donor base and they are serious about raising their athletic standard. Given 3-5 years they should be in the middle of the Pac in football.
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Holy Crap! An Athlete at QB for Oregon Like THIS?
David Marsh replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
I could see Moga moving up in the rankings before signing day. For a lot of Oregon's 3-star recruits right now I can see them moving up in the rankings as well. I feel this staff has done a good job getting in on some talent early, when they are lower ranked, and then the talent will shoot up as the season comes around. That will also help our end rankings. -
It will be worth watching those numbers this year... it is on a new platform and people need to learn where to find the game as well. Traditional TV is still going to get more eyeballs but it is only a matter of time until that starts to change. Those Amazon numbers should increase year-on-year as more people get more comfortable with streaming. As Jon Joseph keeps on saying and I agree with him.... streaming is the future. So if this rumored deal comes together it will put the Pac ahead of all the other conferences a full media cycle earlier. Next media rights cycle starting around 2030 will include streaming platforms and if the Pac can lock those down early that will make the next media rights cycle a whole lot easier. I think in large part what has made this media rights negotiation take so long has been because the Pac has had to get more creative in part because FOX bought into the B1G and really doesn't have a lot of money left over for other conferences. ESPN filled up on the SEC and doesn't really want to pay top dollar on the Pac. Both FOX and ESPN (the big two sports casters) are jumping up and down with joy because the former ACC commissioner is potentially worse than Larry Scott because they have the ACC locked in for about another ten years with a crappy media deal. And the Big-12 has been showing off for a while how great and smart they are with their ~30 million dollar per school deal but in reality that was an easy media rights deal. They basically sold away everything they could and expanded the conference to every G5 school that has been remotely decent in football in the past decade and FOX and ESPN basically renewed their deal. The Big-12's expansion in order to maintain this number lost their two biggest members in Oklahoma and Texas and then they had to add 4 members to try and make up for that... BYU, Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati. I would imagine that their media rights deal would have been better with Oklahoma and Texas without needing to expand. So with all this chaos the Pac has had to get creative and hopefully they can pull it off. They probably could get a status quo deal that will keep them around where the Big-12's deal is at but getting creative could see a pay bump even if it would take a year or so.
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No one has even talked about trying to get Netflix in on sports casting. They are in a similar position to the rest of these in that they don't have any in house sports production capability but the Pac-12 Network has that. Amazon Prime isn't that surprising as its bundled in with the Prime sub and a ton of people have that.
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This list of NIL groups is really interesting to see just where the top 20 NIL groups are located and who they support. Some quick highlights... Oregon comes in at No.3 with Division Street, not really a big surprise but maybe a bit of a surprise that we are ahead of USC and are actually one of the most comprehensive programs in the entire country. Division Street is probably one of the quietest NIL groups of the lot as well. USC comes in at No. 7 (though they will be going to the B1G soon) Washington comes in at No. 15. Which puts them at the 2nd highest in the Pac (or 3rd if you count USC), so I don't know what their fan base is complaining about. Well, their Huskies they believe the entire sports world is run by Oregon and is out to get them. I wish that were true but it isn't. SMU comes in at No. 20. Which bodes well for the Pac if they do end up joining the conference. They have a strong support base and in a P5 conference they will really be able to leverage that. I believe SMU is the only current G5 school on that list so this is even more support for them to join the conference. Also they may be the No. 3 school in the State of Texas (both Texas and Texas Tech are ahead of them) but they are ahead of TCU and Baylor that's fore sure. On3's top 20 most ambitious NIL collectives - On3 WWW.ON3.COM Two years in, here are On3’s rankings of the top 20 most ambitious NIL collectives. These all play a unique role in helping to shape...