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Jon Joseph

Moderator

Everything posted by Jon Joseph

  1. Isn't that what Knute said about the Gipper? Nothing new under the sun.
  2. Find me a way to revoke the ACC charter. And then, please pick me up from the Dexter Lake Club floor. 😍
  3. 2002 - I understand your POV. Yet not so long ago Maryland left for the B1G. It was a different media deal then but via suit over the then ACC exit fee, Maryland saved $20M. FSU and Clemson are the lead litigators, but six or more ACC programs join in, and goodbye to ACC as it is today. But as my post asked above, how much value will any ACC team bring to the Power 2 conferences' bottom line? Ditto, B12 teams showing the money. Looking at the viewership statistics, do the Power 2 conferences need more programs? Would the NFL benefit by adding teams in Salt Lake City or Stillwater Oklahoma? My friend Jabba and I have debated this question. With all due respect to you and Jabba, size goes to size, and existing media deals will not stop value-added programs from coalescing into 40 or fewer programs into a Super League. I'll watch, but Arizona at Utah in 2024 will draw fewer viewers than any SEC game that does not have Vanderbilt in the mix. Does my POV make me happy? NO. But five decades ago the NCAA had its broadcast monopoly and the media became the overseer of college athletics. It was not over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, but it is financially over for programs that cannot find their way into the Power 2.
  4. ESPN to have ‘unilateral’ option to end media rights deal with ACC, per report SATURDAYROAD.COM ESPN's media deal with the ACC includes an interesting twist. Dean Wormer: "There is a little-known codicil in the Faber College Constitution which gives the Dean unlimited power ..." It's ESPN, and not litigants Clemson and FSU, that holds the future of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) in its Dean Wormer-like hands. ESPN's ACC media rights deal gives ESPN the option in February of 2025, to opt out of the existing Mickey Mouse media deal in 2027, before the current deal expires in 2036. [Note, it is a different set of circumstances with Texas joining the SEC but the Longhorn Network will go off-air in July 2024 and be folded into the SEC Network.] Why would ESPN with a favorable ACC media deal, one priced well below what ESPN is paying for the SEC sports inventory and on par with the deal for B12 inventory, want to terminate a deal in its favor? 1. The Worldwide Leader, Fox Sports, and Warner Bros. recently announced the creation of the streaming service, 'Venu.' The formation of Venu comes amid cable TV cord-cutting which has materially lowered ESPN's subscription base and is in recognition of the move to pay-for-view streamed sporting events. Venu arrives as part of the Cold War-like thaw between the Murdochs and the Disneys. The model of buying sports inventory and selling game and event inventory to advertisers at a markup is no longer ipso facto profitable. Businesses have cut back advertising budgets. Pac-12 fans are well aware of this; the timing of the Conference of Champions' new media negotiations coming up for bid and the conference's refusal, unlike the B12, to go to the market sooner was the final Conference of Champions bite into a bushel of rotten Apples. So, today's favorable deal with the ACC may not be all that favorable down the road. Yes, the existing deal with the ACC is more than reasonable, but as profitable as showing Clemson vs. Florida State on pay-to-watch Venu? More profitable than closing down the ACC Network and eliminating the obligation to cover all of the ACC's sports? Why not do independent broadcast deals with Clemson and FSU without having to drag along Boston College and Wake Forest? 2. What if ESPN does not exercise the option and Clemson and FSU split? Without these two playing football in the ACC, will the operation of the ACC Network yield a profit as it does today? Why would Clemson and FSU fans and casual ACC fans continue to subscribe to the ACC Network without its two biggest football brands? Would Disney and its parent, Walt Disney, want to be left holding this kind of bag? 3. Is there any assurance that Clemson, FSU, and other ACC programs will be welcomed by the B1G or by the SEC? Clemson and FSU may find homes but if the remaining ACC teams do not, this again leaves the World Wide Leader holding the bag. 46 of the 47 most-watched college football games featured at least one B1G or SEC team. Ergo, what incentive is there for the B1G or the SEC to expand? FSU drew on average 4.16M viewers, 9th in the nation according to Nielson, and Clemson came in at 19th with 2.90M viewers. FSU and Clemson are not members of the American Association of Universities (AAU). To date, no program without AAU membership has been invited to join the B1G. Is the B1G in play for these two? The SEC is in the Florida and South Carolina marketplaces. The rivalry games, Clemson vs. South Carolina and FSU vs. Florida are broadcast by ESPN. Excluding, 'We're Only Here for the APR,' Vandy, the second least-watched SEC team, Mississippi State, was the 32nd most-watched SEC team in 2023, drawing over 2M viewers a game. As brand-worthy as Clemson and FSU may be, neither program would bring to the SEC the brand value brought by Texas. In 2023 Texas finished 8th in the number of viewers (one spot behind Oregon at 4.43M!) with 4.26M viewers. Adding Florida, Georgia, and Texas A+M to the Texas schedule will boost the Longhorns viewership. With its viewer numbers already at the top, why would SEC member teams want to add any teams to the spreadsheet? Unless ESPN was willing to pay for more inventory with the SEC moving from eight to nine conference games. North Carolina was on average, the 46th most-watched college football team in 2023. The Tarheels drew an average audience of 966K. However, UNC is in a media cat-bird seat. North Carolina is a marketplace not served by the B1G/Fox or the SEC/ESPN. UNC is an AAU member institution and in the B1G's academic wheelhouse. North Carolina is projected to be the nation's 7th most populous state come the 2030s. And North Carolina brings with it basketball prestige. Both of the Power 2 conferences would be after UNC, hot, heavy, and with a bushel of dough. The ACC implodes and B1G/Fox and SEC/ESPN will both be after UNC and Notre Dame. Notre Dame finished tenth in viewership numbers in 2023 with 4.15M viewers. The B1G and Notre Dame have a rancorous history; however, Notre Dame is a member of the B1G in Men's and Women's ice hockey and a better academic fit in the B1G than in the SEC. Both North Carolina and Notre Dame would likely come on board the B1G or the SEC as full revenue members. Again, with the ACC media deal it has in hand, I see ESPN doing nothing to hasten the demise of the ACC. I'm happy that I am not the executive(s) at Walt Disney having to decide in the middle of an all-time turbulent college sports world whether or not to put the ACC on Double Public Probation.
  5. B1G W/L totals. I do not believe that Oregon will both defeat and lose to Michigan in 2024. I do believe USC will defeat Penn State in LA and will not lose 3 home games vs Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame.
  6. A B1G SOS ranking using the latest SP+ rankings. Big Ten football strength of schedule power rankings for 2024 season BADGERSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Updated Big Ten strength of schedule rankings entering the 2024 season: And Win/Loss prediction for all B1G teams poat-spring practice. Big Ten Football: Record predictions for every team in 2024 season BADGERSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Full 2024 Big Ten season predictions…win-loss record for each team and final standings: B1G playoff things are predicted for OBD! College Football Playoff 12-team field projection on top 25 ranking BADGERSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Can Wisconsin make a run at the College Football Playoff in 2024?
  7. 'Sod Story?' Not bad. Sources: NCAA officials mulling change to allow on-field corporate sponsorships SPORTS.YAHOO.COM Imagine LSU’s “eye of the Tiger” replaced by the Raising Cane’s dog. Or Alabama’s script ‘A’ replaced by a Nike swoosh.
  8. Settlement? The Devil is in the Details. Gut-wrenching choices, Title IX complications face college athletics in wake of House v. NCAA settlement - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM For 100 years, athletic departments have operated as 24-hour ATMs, and for every dollar earned, they spent
  9. I'm shocked! SEC coaches believe that a 9-3 SEC team should be in the 12-team playoff field! A 9-3 Oklahoma, perhaps. A 9+3 Missouri with the 66th easiest strength-of-schedule? How about, 'NO!' SEC leaders argue 9-3 record is good enough for expanded College Football Playoff; Do they have a point? - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM The 13-person selection committee has seldom been under such scrutiny before a season started As noted before, IMO more pressure will be on the Committee than the pressure faced with a 4-team field notwithstanding last season's FSU snubbing. Dennis Dodd, are you aware that you are no longer broadcasting SEC games at CBS? Tony Petitti, why do we always hear from SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey and crickets from you, Sir? How about doing more for the B1G Bloody Pulpit?
  10. CBS Sports shows love for Dillon and the Ducks. Why Dillon Gabriel can lead Big Ten title run for Oregon; James Franklin may face mounting pressure in 2024 - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Other Big Ten storylines include a new helmet for Illinois this season 'Delusional psychopaths' in Columbus?
  11. Bruce is not liking UW, UCLA, and USC in 2024. And questioning Nore Dame? Blasphemy! Bruce Feldman's college football win total best bets WWW.NYTIMES.COM Georgia and Florida State are popular picks to beat their win totals, but it might be better to pick the under with UCLA and Notre Dame.
  12. NFL-Lite has now grown in size to NFL-Medium. The ACC imploding will likely be the final step toward big-time CFB consolidation and NFL-Lite. B1G/Fox American Conference; SEC/ESPN National Conference and the G6. Puddles is in a perfect nesting spot, sitting on golden eggs.
  13. Corvallis - More 'Traitors' per capita than any other place on Earth.
  14. It's the NCAA. Logic need not apply.
  15. If such a thing exists, this is an excellent Pac-12 eulogy from a Cal website. Cal with a better record than one game over the Mendoza line Florida did not get an NCAA baseball tourney invite while the Gators did. What's new? Until we meet again, Pac-12 WRITEFORCALIFORNIA.COM The Pac-12 as we know it has concluded its run. Who knows if that sunny day back together comes anytime soon. I do not want 'It' back because it will never be back as 'It' was. I do want the B1G to speak up against SEC favoritism and not simply take it in the shorts. I want standup, no-nonsense, accountable, B1G conference leadership. I do not want to see the 'arrangement' with the SEC leading to no criticism of the SEC and favoritism toward the SEC.
  16. Do not be surprised if the same thing happens in football. Most of the 2024 CFB preseason polls would have the SEC hosting three first-round games. Five of the seven-quarter, semi, and the champ game will be played in Dixie. The Peach Bowl semifinal and the champion game will be played in Atlanta at Mercedes Benz Stadium, the site of the SEC champ game. I am delighted to see OBD going B1G. I am not happy with playing eight football games in a row without a break and to date, crickets from B1G Commissioner Tony Petitti regarding the SEC's (and ACC's) eight-game conference schedule. Nothing can be done regarding playoff sites before 2026-27 but I hope we also will hear from Petitti on this regional imbalance. Cal was 36-19, Florida 28-27, but Gators make NCAA baseball regional TROJANSWIRE.USATODAY.COM The SEC thrives at the Pac-12’s expense. It’s a tale as old as time.
  17. I agree with you. Does it matter how you build a roster as long as by recruiting, re-recruiting by keeping studs on board with NIL, and by portal picking you have a deep blue Blue Chip roster? The only 'quality program' I am aware of that is still trying to build a roster only with high school recruits is Clemson.
  18. Why not in Athens West? DL is building the team in the image of two guys he worked for, Nick Saban and Kirby Smart.
  19. Good take DM. McCarthy was far more than a game manager when he led a late Michigan drive in the 4th Q before leading the Wolverines to an OT victory. One of the very few times in Saban's stint at Bama where the Tide suffered a loss when holding a late 4th Q lead.
  20. OBD Brothers and Sisters, Can I Get an AMEN! USC-LSU football schedule drama magnifies Trojans’ Big Ten problem SPORTS.YAHOO.COM Here's the real problem behind the USC-LSU football scheduling mess. It's an issue which is not being resolved.
  21. Place your bets! LSU -7 vs SC in Las Vegas. Which of the teams losing its Heisman winner will be improved on D? Both programs spent a lot of money bringing in new DCs and assistant coaches on the D side. It's only the spring games and it may be that LSU's Nussmeier at QB is better than anyone USC has on the roster including Miller Moss but the LSU DBs still looked like they were practicing a fire drill while the SC D as it did in the Holiday Bowl, looked far more cohesive and not 'every man for himself.' The Over 66.5 could be a good bet. In The Swamp, I'm taking Florida and the 3.5 points over Mari(o) and Miami. I've seen this movie before. Cristobal signs a bunch of highly thought of players who fail to play at their projected level on game day. Betting buzz: LSU opens as big favorite over USC for CFB Week 1 - ESPN WWW.ESPN.COM The LSU Tigers opened as 7-point favorites over the USC Trojans ahead of their Labor Day game in Las Vegas. USC and Lincoln Riley are getting lit up on the SEC Saturday Down South board for trying to get out of the LSU game. LSU's other OOC opponents in 2024 are Nicholls State, UCLA, and South Alabama, all in Death Valley. And, LSU plays 8 and not 9 conference games. I think Notre Dame in 2024 will be a more difficult opponent than what LSU is playing. In support of my take on the LSU D is this article from CBS Sports. 2024 SEC championship odds, picks: Georgia an overwhelming favorite but Alabama, Missouri provide value - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Odds favor Georgia climbing back to the top of the mountain after winning two SEC titles in the past three years
  22. 2024 College Playoff Chaos - Part IV 2024 Chaos Scenarios, No. 4: A team with multiple losses wins the national title WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM Let's continue our Chaos Scenarios with a subject that'll become a reality in the near future -- 2-loss teams winning a national title.
  23. Stewart Mandel of The Athletic is buying stock in Oregon. Get on board at +1000 to win the 2024-25 Natty. 5th best odds to win it all. Mandel's Mailbag: Buying stock in Oregon, ranking jobs by prestige, House settlement fallout WWW.NYTIMES.COM What does the language of the House settlement really mean?
  24. 2024 College Playoff Chaos - Part IV 2024 Chaos Scenarios, No. 4: A team with multiple losses wins the national title WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM Let's continue our Chaos Scenarios with a subject that'll become a reality in the near future -- 2-loss teams winning a national title.
  25. Post-House, what about NIL? The next evolution of NIL collectives and the battles that await: 'This is a big inflection point' SPORTS.YAHOO.COM The NCAA’s landmark settlement has been billed by some as a move to bring stability to an unruly recruiting landscape. While offering solutions for some problems, the new model creates...

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