Jon Joseph

Charles, a great reminder of the excellent class Lanning et al pulled in and it is looking really good recruiting-wise for 2004. With a 12-team playoff field coming in 2024 and perhaps going to a 16-team field in 2026 when playoff broadcast rights go out to bid and with SC/UCLA going away the Ducks should be in a position to make the field year after year. Then it will be up to Oregon to see how far it can go playoff-wise. Clemson won titles with great QB play coming out of a weak conference. Clemson did have a blue-chip roster (more than 50% 4* and 5* players) when it won its titles but Oregon's recruiting has been on par with Clemson's. I think the rivalry with UW will become even more heated and Utah will be in the mix as long as Whitingham is there. CU? That's a total rebuild and who knows how long Coach Prime will stay out west. ASU? Will the 'sleeping giant' ever wake up? Championship opportunities will be there without having to play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, an always dangerous Iowa team, improved Wisconsin under Coach Fickell, and possibly a resurgent Nebraska under Coach Ruhle. And not having to travel to the east coast to play a decent Maryland and the chance to be upset at Rutgers. I believe the Pac-10 will hold together and Oregon will find the same kind of success that Dabo has brought to Clemson.

Great take Happy. UCLA is along for the ride only because FOX wanted to shut ESPN out of LA.

ESPN NFL draft gurus. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have both released their respective prospective 1st Round of the NFL 2023 draft. I use the term 'guru' in the case of these too lightly; lightly as a pillow made out of Puddles feathers. Do not liquidate all of your possessions and join the Cult of Kiper or the Cult of McShay. Their predictions rarely follow the course of an actual NFL draft. But both are pretty good at predicting the conference from which given players will be drafted. Following are the combined conference rankings these two have come up with for the 2023 1st round of the draft. SEC - 21 (and this does not include 1 player drafted from Texas and 1 from Oklahoma that in 2024 would give the SEC 23 1st-round picks.) B1G - 16 (and this does not include 3 picks from the Pac-12 from USC that in 2014 would give the B1G 19 1st-round picks.) ACC - 8 B12 - 7 (including 1 player from Oklahoma and 1 from Texas.) Pac-12 - 7 (including 3 players from USC. Oregon's CB Gonzales is a 1st-round pick as is Utah's, TE Kincaid.) Notre Dame - 3 62 1st-round picks and not 64; Miami forfeited its 1st-round pick. This is hard to believe for a team in SEC territory where the 1st rule of recruiting is 'if you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin' and the 2nd rule is 'don't get caught y'all.' If you follow the money the SEC dominating the 1st-round with the B1G not far behind is completely logical. If you follow recruiting rankings the SEC dominating with the B1G not that far behind is also completely logical. The above numbers also help explain why the B12 was willing to sign an early media renewal agreement with ESPN and FOX with each B12 member receiving $31.7M per annum under the new agreement. This number many consider to be a low-ball number but one that locked in the 4 new B12 members (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF) and the B12 members remaining after Oklahoma and Texas leave for the SEC in 2024. The vast majority of B12 games under the new media deal will be available on linear broadcasts. Former commissioner Bob Bowlsby 'signed up' the 4 new members and the new B12 commissioner, Yarmack, jumped ahead of the Pac-12/10 to complete the new media deal. I note that Bob Bowlsby, former athletic director at Stanford, called out ESPN for the 'theft' of Oklahoma and Texas. FOX did the same thing in arranging UCLA's and USC's move to the B1G but not surprisingly we have heard nothing derogatory coming from the Pac-12 powers that be aimed at FOX. The above numbers along with the western-most geography of the Pac-12 that is not producing 4* and 5* recruits like it used to and is losing many of its 4* and 5* recruits to the SEC, B1G, and even the B12, the failure to place a team in the college football playoff for many years, the failure to win a basketball championship for decades, the terrible leadership under Larry Scott and the people he reported to and the conference vacillating over expansion and slow walking a new media deal have led to the conference to floundering with finalizing a new media deal at a number per team that is equal to or exceeds the B12's new media deal. Nevertheless, I expect the Pac-10 possibly expanding by two to four new members will stay together and in 2024 compete for one or more college football playoff spots when the field expands to twelve teams. If for some reason the conference does not hold together I do not expect Oregon and its terrific national and international football brand to be at risk of not finding a home to compete for both football and basketball championships. But it is becoming clearer year after year that we are now living in a world with two power conferences and three trying to stay within hailing distance financially and recruiting the 'Jimmies and the Joe's' who go on to play ball in the NFL and the NBA.

Great take but I think the B1G will drop divisions when the 2 LA schools arrive and I expect the SEC will do the same when OK/TX arrive in 2024.

John, probably trying to be cute but when OK/TX join the SEC, I expect divisions to disappear in favor of a 3-6-6 model. There will be no SEC W just as there is no Pac north and south.

Sorry if this is a double post but OK/UT are both headed east and not west. SEC HQ is in Birmingham, Alabama. Every SEC school lies east of Norman, OK, and Austin, TX.

A few states today do allow HS athletes to profit off of their respective NIL.

Like the idea. But been there and passed on the opportunity.

No offense but many, many of us have seen this coming from far away. I'm waiting on the FACTS. The deal GK cables together may be grim but negative speculation is not going to make the final deal any better or worse.

The Buckeyes play at Notre Dame in. Michigan is the school (along with UCLA) with back-to-back cupcake OOC schedules but Michigan does have a home and home with Texas beginning in 2024. Ohio State's payment of $500K to UW will be more than made up by playing an 8th home game. The timing of the cancellation screws UW but why should OH ST AD Gene Smith care? CFB today? It's every man for himself.

I too have played around with something like this. But the opportunity at the conference level was lost when the Pac-12 voted not to take in orphaned B12 teams. The only way to get this or something like it on today would be for the teams to say to heck with the conference and its commissioners and negotiate directly. But in the world of academia, I see little or no chance for this to happen; especially, when the B12 has a new all-linear media deal that the 4 new teams in particular are most happy about.

"Logic" will not prevail here Charles. Looks like the NCAA just threw away more dollars in useless litigation. There was one avenue for relief: Congress granting CFB an anti-trust exemption but I do not see it happening. You are so correct, in order to 'reward athletes' the baby will be thrown out with the bath water.

Or, next man out of the portal.

SI? This same story has not been published well over 100 times. No team is leaving the Pac-10 for the B12 before the Pac-10 deal is done. Even if the deal comes in a few million lower per annum than the Pac-10 deal that does not mean teams are going to automatically depart the Pac-10. This kind of stuff will circulate daily until the Pac-10 deal is concluded. What else is there to talk about CFB-wise this time of year?

All hearsay and BS before a deal is concluded. It's 'stuff' like this that moves the media gotcha needle and that is all.

That is CS, BS. UW should cancel this year's game at MI ST and fill in with San Jose State. Then it will have an OOC schedule equivalent to Michigan. FOX Network, the gift that keeps on stealing.

AMEN. Which I'd like to forget but reminds me of the Civil War 2022 loss. That was a smash mouth 4th Q beat down. Not a pass is thrown in the 4th Q by the Beavers and they come back to win? Impressive. One thing I am sure we agree upon for certain. No team in any sport is always going to bring its A-game. The key to titles is to win the games when you are not performing at grade A. The size of the dog in the fight? Amen. But roster depth matters a whole lot in CFB. Why UGA blew out Oregon and TCU yet could have lost at Mizzou and should have lost vs Ohio State? Hope it is all good in LV.

BAMA - LSU, TX A+M, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miss State, Arkansas. I do not see the Ducks 'usual' conference schedule being more difficult than this. And in 2023 the Tide hosts Texas while Oregon plays at Texas Tech.

Terrific take, thank you. For comparison purposes. GEORGIA - ESPN #1/SP+ #1 Ceiling: 12-0/Floor: 9-3. Odds to finish better than 11-1: 62% Biggest Variable: Quarterback. I'd add - Replacing OC Todd Monken with 're-tread' OC Mike Bobo.

And is playing behind a better OL and perhaps in a better system. His 1st OC left to take the UVA job. His 2nd OC was fired. And he wasn't throwing to WRs the quality of guys he had to throw to when Lawrence was out and he lit up Notre Dame. Clemson's quality of players had decreased. Without Lawrence, in his last season, I think Clemson loses 3 to 4 games. Clemson's recruiting rankings have gone down even though kids who sign there get a rankings bump because it is Clemson.

But probably should be?

That was the agreed-upon buyout for OK/TX. I do not think this number applies to the new media deal and I'm not sure the new media deal has been officially agreed to by all B12 members. Not too long ago, Texas Tech among others was desperate to join the Pac-12. Shot down with USC Prez Folt leading the way. (Man I'd love to know if SC was already playing footsie with Warren and the B1G when the vote occured?) The Power 5 would have gone to the Power 4 and the Pac-20 would have been golden. In the interim the Oregon prez left for Northwestern and a discouraging word never comes out of Mullens' mouth. FOX manipulated the LA schools departure and Kevin Warren and by extension the entire B1G lied to the ACC and the Pac-12. Yet, other than for the CA trustees no one raised a peep as did Bob Bowlsby when ESPN raided OK/TX from the B12. IMO, if UW, OR, CU, Utah, ASU and AZ went in concert to KS, K-St, OK St, TX Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston and Iowa State there could be a realistic shot at forming a strong western conference. One that could negotiate with ESPN, FOX and others and bring in more than the B12's $31.7M a year. But it's academia so it isn't going to happen. The only way to close the gap with the B1G and the SEC is for western teams to unify and reduce the Power 5 to the Power 4. The Oregon brand is strong and I'm hoping for the best but I wish the stronger Pac-12 programs would push harder for a logical, mutually beneficial and financially viable deal for the western schools. BTW, if the Pac-12 is too 'elite' to associate with B12 schools why are so many games including Oregon's next 6 P5 OOC games scheduled with the B12? Let CAL and Stanford join the Ivy League.

I do not disagree in the slightest. This is all algorithm-driven. Human polls will of course be different but at the top BC has usually been very accurate.

TT - blew out Ole Miss in its bowl game. 8-0 when Tyler Shough the presumed starting QB in 2023, starts and finishes a game. TT #1 in the country last season in plays run per game. 89.2 play average. Home - 95.7 plays/ Away 82.7 plays Ducks by comparison finished ranked #56. 71.3 play average. Home - 70.6 plays/Away - 71.9 plays - I find it interesting that the Ducks on average ran more plays on the road, The Red Raiders and former Ducks QB Shough (wasted by Mario?) will put a lot of stress on the Ducks D. Texas Tech - 64% of 2022 production returning. 75% on offense (31 nationally) 52% defense (58 nationally.) Oregon - 65% 0f 2022 production returning. 65% on offense (62 nationally.) 65% on defense (58 nationally) (At 65/65/65 is Oregon the Social Security Team?) 1st game Ducks have the advantage playing Portland State at home while TT trips to Wyoming. The stadium in Lubbock will be fired up and LOUD!