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nw777b

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    FishDuck Fundamentals Needed to Beat the Beavers

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    On 11/26/2022 at 10:09 AM, Charles Fischer said:

    This was covered extensively in threads after the Stanford game.  

     

    This is from the 2012 game at USC where Mariota would Zone Read a DE on the left side while meshing with DAT running to the right.  If the read defender crashed, then Marcus would pull the ball and follow two pulling blockers to the left.  If the defender being read "sat" then he would hand off to DAT would run to the right "naked" side, (no blocking) but you had DAT one-on-one with defenders in the open field.  It was good-or-good between who ran the ball.

     

    We did this early versus Stanford and really messed them up.  Then we flipped it and had the mesh with the RB going to the left and Bo could run the "naked" direction.  We ran pass-plays off this, and other sequential plays in that game and the next.

     

    I called it the "Mariota" play,....just because it was cool in 2012 to see him run behind two pulling big blockers.

     

                                         "Quarterback in the Clear!"

    Mariota in 2012_Kevin Cline.jpg

    Awesome.  Thank you. I searched the forum, but couldn't find the reference. 

    Lanning Plays With Fire, Duck Fans Get Burned

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    On 11/23/2022 at 9:26 AM, CalBear95 said:

    You are both overthinking and oversimplifying it. 
     

    Your framework suggests there are so many variables that it’s impossible to really trust the math so ultimately gut feel is the best course.  This is just functionally incorrect.  That isn’t how analytics work.  
     

    Analytics is simply a way to understand the game outside of conventional wisdom.  Analytics totally changed baseball because it helped people see the game as it actually was.  It exposed the framework for executing and a set of probabilities (expected value of decision y).  Simple example: never bunt.  Like ever.
     

    In football’s case, possession is the coin of the realm (hard to score without it). If you believe that then it’s easy to accept punting is giving away a down and should be avoided whenever possible

     

    You have a better chance of earning a set of downs with four plays vs three.  Also, your strategy changes (example: is 3rd and 6 really an obvious passing down if you know you are going for it on 4th?)

     

    It’s counterintuitive because everything you know about football says that giving the Dawgs the ball inside your own 35 is more dangerous than getting the ball away from your goal line.  Analytics helps you see the situation as it actually is from a risk perspective and not through an emotional lens (better to take $75 in hand than a coin flip for $150 which is actuality backwards).  
     

    Anyhow, the horse is in the glue factory on this point.  Hear your perspective but (clearly) I don’t share it. 

    You think I believe an actuary uses a gut feeling to determine terms of an insurance policy?

     

    Oregon did the very thing you are arguing they should ALWAYS do. 

     

    It didn't work out. They lost.

     

    I had a wise teacher tell our class anytime an axiom includes ALWAYS or NEVER it should ALWAYS be avoided and NEVER be adhered to.

     

    "Sensible people will see trouble coming and avoid it, but an unthinking person will walk right into it and regret it later." - Very old proverb

    Lanning Plays With Fire, Duck Fans Get Burned

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    On 11/22/2022 at 1:45 PM, CalBear95 said:

    You asked the exact right question: Why would you ever punt if that is the math?

     

    Answer: You don’t.  
     

    But that runs counter to conventional wisdom so it gets dismissed as wrong even though it is mathematically correct.

     

    Your ‘flipping the field’ comment is a ‘aversion to loss’ mindset that Romer highlighted as why coaches fundamentally misjudge how to play 4th down (FWIW, studies have shown most people are wired to think this way and is why most people aren’t good at assessing risk)
     

    I hope DL said it was the wrong decision in terms of play call because it wasn’t strategically.  

    Sorry, but that's flawed. There are way too many moving parts to leave that decision up to some limited algorithm. It's why insurance companies pay a LOT of money to Actuaries instead of relying on some formula. 

     

    How gassed was the O line? 

     

    How long did it take UW to score due to the short field?

     

    How slick was the turf at that point in the game?

     

    Aversion to risk is a good thing and it has to be a factor when making a decision. 

     

    Know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to punt.

     

    A punt is an offensive play.

    • Thumbs Up 1

    Lanning Plays With Fire, Duck Fans Get Burned

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    When your backup QB is in and hasn't gotten a first down in several games punting is NOT a turnover.  

     

    It's an opportunity to flip the field and get a stop or turnover and make the other team work harder to score, if they score AND use more clock.

     

    Compare yards per play with Bo in vs the backup and I'll bet the odds of the backup getting that first down are much lower.

     

    I realize we all have 20/20 vision now, but even Lanning admits it was the wrong call in THAT situation. 

     

    Otherwise, if the average yards per play is 3 or more, then why punt, ever?

    Talk About an Ugly Win

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    On 11/21/2022 at 5:01 AM, Log Haulin said:

    The future looks good for Lannings Ducks. Ugly or not.

    I agree with everything but am worried about next year.

     

    If the Duck QB next year is not great, it might be more exciting to watch the Ducks at Alton Baker park.

    • Thumbs Up 1

    Can the Oregon Ducks Beat Utah Without Nix?

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    On 11/18/2022 at 9:19 AM, Haywarduck said:

    A couple things, one Ty cares, I can guarantee you that. Many saw Marcus as having too little emotion. We have had quite a few qb's who weren't the more vocal leaders, but they won. 

     

    I remember hearing about Marcus and Justin being the guy in practice. These guys came out and proved they had it when they started. I will bet Ty won't be Bo, and we need to be ok with that. If Ty wins this game it undoubtedly will be a rollercoaster ride of a game. Remember Justin's first start, he threw 2 td's and 1 pic, lost 70-21, but he looked the part, to most fans.

     

    Lastly if Ty does impress, there will be no qb controversy, at all. This is Bo's team and his year. He needs to continued Oregon support to win out so he can get to New York for the Heisman awards. I also want Bo to lead us to a bowl win, he deserves both of these outcome. I see no scenario where fans call for Ty starting over Bo.

     

    That said if Ty plays well it will give most fans a huge sense of relief when thinking about next year. I would love to see a qb battle between Ty and Dante knowing at least one qb has played well in a big game. Right now most are wondering about the transfer portal as a solution to the unease with the qb position next year.

     

    I do look at this being more of a game like Justin was thrown into for his first game. This will be a huge test for Ty and the team. I hope Bo comes out under center, but if it is Ty we need to be realistic about what we expect.

    Justin's first game was at the end of a WSU loss. I belive he drove the Ducks 75 yards or so down the field. 

     

    Justin > Ty

    Lanning, Players Convey Confidence in Backup QBs if Bo Nix Can't Go

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    On 11/16/2022 at 7:00 PM, Mic said:

    If this is true then I don't like it - not one bit.  Tosh Lupoi was caught doing that when the D.C. at Cal - against Oregon!!!  His coach reprimanded him for it.  It's one of the reasons I'm not a fan of Lupoi.  Lord, I don't want to think Dan Lanning is the same kind of person.  It's wrong!

    If this rumor is true, I believe Lanning's contract contains language that would be cause for separation if he knew.

     

    It needs to be investigated. 

    • Thumbs Up 1
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