cartm25

Ugh! Brutal!

Sorry to make things worse @Charles Fischer I'll be at the game. The unfortunate part? On the rare occasions I've spent good money to see my favorite team live in a high stakes game . . . the result has always been ugly. Not like "we lost close" ugly, but "we just got blown out" ugly. Perhaps by acknowledging this publicly, I've reversed the original jinx? Or, maybe now I've reversed the reverse jinx back to the original jinx?

This is a great point that I hope the committee considers. An EXTREME example to make a point: Imagine for a moment, if you will, an alternate universe where the following 2023 teams are all in the same conference: - Georgia - Michigan - Washington - Florida St. - Oregon - Ohio State - Texas - Alabama - Missouri - Penn State - Ole Miss - Oklahoma After a 9-game conference regular season playing each other, many of these teams (currently the best 12 teams in the Nation) would be unranked. And the top teams would have their "ranking" hurt because their conference opponents fell out of the rankings. But no one would argue that LSU, Louisville, or Arizona would be close to the top four of the list of teams above. YET, in our "alternate universe", LSU, Louisville, and Arizona would be higher ranked undefeated or 1-loss teams than the teams in the "conference" of powerhouses. As @Duckman2 points out, I believe, to a lesser extent, this is what happened to the P-12. A higher number of quality teams in a conference has an outsized negative impact compared top-heavy conferences.

I share the cautious optimism of some on this forum. I just don't love the matchup. It has a similar feel to when Oregon struggled with the Air-Raid from Mike Leach's WSU teams over the years. Though, this UW team is Mike Leach's Air Raid on steroids with a Heisman/NFL-caliber QB and 2-3 NFL WRs. I understand that Oregon is the better all around team top to bottom, but sometimes matchups make fights, and I just don't see this one being anything other than a close, stressful game. Bring it on!

All very good stuff. I like, and agree with, the way you phrased the "redistribution" of recruits creating more parity among 12 teams in the nation. However, I do believe that there is a tipping point where expanding too much will eventually have the result @OregonDucks mentioned at the beginning, where the regular season becomes diluted. I don't claim to know where that number is, but I really like the number 12 for now.

INCREDIBLE post @Jon Joseph!!! Agree with everything. I think there's an added benefit that a 12-team playoff will also release the recruiting stranglehold powers like tOSU, Bama, Georgia, Clemson have had over the years. Now that west-coast talent can have access to the CFP without "having" to go to one of the aforementioned teams will hopefully diminish those powers. Long story short, I couldn't be more excited to have a 12 team playoff coming next year.

There are trade offs, but I don’t think it will dilute the regular season. I don’t believe the NFL regular season is diluted with 14 teams making the playoffs. There are amazing, urgent games all year. I think the biggest problem with a small playoff field is how quickly it can “end” a season for a team with CFP aspirations. Imagine, last year, that the Ducks lose to WSU. Season over! No 2-loss P12 team is making the playoffs; literally nothing to play for, in Oregon’s case anyways. The beauty of an expanded playoff is it rewards a team’s development and improvement throughout the year. It eliminates teams less quickly from contention. Another way of putting it, an expanded playoff extends the amount of time a team has hope of making the playoff, especially if they’re an extremely talented team but hasn’t had a chance to gel due to coaching, player, transfer portal turnover.

Ah, didn't know that. First number I saw was the -9.5. That -7.5 seems more appropriate, IMHO.

Not sure about you, but that 9.5 feels a bit high, no? I realize the Ducks have looked stronger and stronger, but Penix and those WR will still be a problem . . . and both teams will be motivated. I'm picking the Ducks to win a close one, but hoping they blow UW out! https://espnbet.com/sport/football/organization/united-states/competition/ncaaf/featured-page?conference=FilterOption%3APacific-12

I have a new appreciation for the "Ducks vs. Them" videos. When I first saw them, I thought they were beautiful highlight videos that would be really effective in recruiting. Don't get me wrong, I think they'll serve recruiting purposes well. But, after thinking about the videos a bit deeper, I think their most significant value is in establishing culture and accountability. Think about it. How would you act/perform if you knew your entire week of preparation and eventual game day was going to be documented (both audio and video) and then shared with the world each week? Not sure if the culture/accountability aspect was the primary intent of the videos, but what a great way to incentivize consistent hard work, preparation, and maximum effort.

Here is the same data that only includes Pac-12 play:

It's been some time since I posted the stats I keep for the Ducks offense. Below is the Ducks' stats that include all games for the year. In a following reply, I'll show the same stats but for Pac-12 play only. Efficiency metrics are off the charts!!

This was a great interview. I really like Kenny Dillingham and hope he has success.

Watched some of The Herd today during lunch. Great segment and I recommend watching/listening to his show today if you can. Loved this quote from Cowherd: "Last week Colorado and USC were in the headlines because of the NIL. Washington and Oregon were in the headlines because they're well coached and have substance." Nice to get a national shout out. GO DUCKS!!

Great analysis here and acknowledges that Oregon still has everything in front of it in terms of goals and post-season aspirations. The analysis starts at the 5:45 minute mark, and ends at the 19:00 minute mark.

Good News: That was a very winnable game against a Top 10 team in the nation. Bad News: That was a very winnable game against a Top 10 team in the nation.

We've got such a good head coach. Hope it all comes together tomorrow:

Crazy, but it's here:

Sad news . . .

Have fun picking all sorts of scenarios. I went with Oregon finishes with one conference loss to UW, but wins the P12 Championship. If the Ducks do that, the machine predicts an 83% chance of making it to the CFP. College Football Playoff Predictor WWW.ESPN.COM With help from the Allstate Playoff Predictor, you can play out the 2023 season and see how likely it is that top contenders will reach the College Football Playoff.

We are now 1/3 the way through the regular season. Oregon is off to a great start, but their stats are front loaded with a very easy non-conference schedule. As such, I'm only showing Oregon's non-conference offensive results over the years; still very good. Really only beat by 2013 Helfrich and 2010 Chip Kelly. High level interpretation: Green = Good (darker is better), Red = Bad (darker is worse), Yellow/Orange = Meh

I want to try and look at this from a young high school football player's perspective. What would my (as a current high school football player) perception of Oregon and Colorado be depending on various outcomes of the game? IF . . .: - Colorado wins big = "They're going to win the P-12 Championship and the Natty. I have to join that team, the sky is the limit." - Colorado wins close = "Look at the miracle season continue. They're only going to get better. Let me be a part of that." - Colorado loses close = "Dang!! Too bad, but they weren't supposed to even be in this game. They're building something, and I want in." - Oregon wins big = "It was bound to happen. I'm intrigued by Colorado and will definitely make a visit. But OREGON!! Wow they looked good. I'm going to go watch some DAT highlights." Kind of a fun exercise but, like it or not, Colorado is now doing what Oregon did starting in the mid-2000s. They're becoming the new COOL / IT school. Part of my point in the thought exercise is that I don't think the Colorado hype-train and appeal slows down one bit in three of the four outcomes (including a close loss by Colorado). What are your thoughts?

Seems too high to me. The Ducks haven’t given Colorado any bulletin board material, but Vegas was happy to oblige. What team is better, Colorado or Texas Tech? I’d put my money on Colorado against TT; Sanders appears to be a far superior QB to Shough, and that’s more than half the battle. I think the Ducks are in for a battle.

My friends . . . like it, love it, indifferent, or hate it . . . what is happening with Colorado is INCREDIBLE. Obviously, I hope this bubble bursts on Saturday, but the Colorado vs. Oregon game could pull in ~12M viewers (see definition in the graphic below). When Oregon burst on the scene with the Nike brand, uniforms, Chip Kelly and his offense, and players like DAT, it impacted an entire generation of young athletes. How often do we hear young recruits saying "Oregon with DAT (or fill in your favorite electric player) was my favorite team growing up." Colorado is unique in that Deion is the center of Colorado's universe, and not a combination of things (i.e., Nike, Chip Kelly, uniforms, DAT, etc.). The younger generation may look at this time period and associate it with Deion, and not necessarily with Colorado. Fascinating stuff!! Some perspective: - Colorado's 2022 average viewership per game was 353,000 . . . - Only 12 games last year had more viewers than Colorado's 8pm PST start-time game against an unranked, non-P5 opponent that ended at 2am ET. - Of the 12 games mentioned above, 7 were from the CFP, major bowl games, or Conference Championships (excluding the P12 championship which only garnered 6.0M). . . The remaining 5 were matchups between some of the biggest schools (currently and historically) while both were highly ranked. This may be a flash in the pan, especially if Colorado goes on a losing streak in the next few games, but the viewership numbers are still remarkable. I intend to track the top-5 watched games nationally each week, as well as tracking the top viewed games in the P12. If you're a stat/numbers nerd like me, hopefully you'll enjoy. Feel free to comment on any of your thoughts / observations regarding the data.

This is wild. Nebraska vs. Colorado essentially had the same number of viewers as Texas vs. Alabama. Can't wait to see the viewership when Colorado comes to Autzen Stadium