cartm25

I see a lot of heat aimed at Dillingham after this game, but I saw nothing but amazing things from the offense. We were all preparing ourselves to gloat about an 11-minute touchdown drive to seal the win against UW until a bad snap and a fluke injury. Outside of the GA game, KD has been a maestro. We are 10 games in, and I’ve not seen a noticeable improvement on defense. I realize Lanning didn’t give himself the defensive “genius” title, but I’ve heard it applied to him enough by national and local media, that I expect him to get that side of the ball figured out. At LEAST improve it some, right!? How about ONE 3-and-out!!? Just ONE! How about consistent pressure on the opposing QB? Hell, I’ll settle for semi- consistent. How about a SPECK of “havoc”? How about not having to bite my nails when the Ducks’ defense is facing a 3rd and 15+ to get off the field? I noticed Nick Aliotti watching from the end zone. HE would have come up with a way to create some havoc. I don’t particularly like James Crepea’s reporting, but his last question to Lanning was on point and brutal, paraphrasing: ”Dan, with the defense having season-long issues . . . 3rd downs, lack of pass rush, deep passes . . . What is there to see in film now that these have been issues all season?” Dan Lanning: “We’ll have to look. We’re playing with the same group and same scheme.”

I’m nervous about the matchup between UW’s passing attack and UO’s pass defense. That said, GO DUCKS!!

With 3 more games left, here's the latest on how the current Ducks stack up to Ducks' offenses of the past. I added two new efficiency categories on the far right: OTD% and Points per Possession. "OTD %" = What percentage of offensive possessions result in a touchdown. LOOK AT DILLINGHAM'S EFFICIENCY!!! He is beating the best offenses Ducks' history has to offer.

HEAR ME OUT!! I realize it's heresy, at this point, to even question Dan Lanning and the job he's done (FANTASTIC), but the Topic title is not as much click-bait as you might assume. Let me pose the question differently: If you were an AD looking for a new head coach, would you prefer that the head coach be an Offensive Genius or a Defensive Genius? Listening to Colin Cowherd, he makes a great point about the direction of football . . . Offense is king! All the rules and regulations favor the offensive side of the ball. Offense is sexy; it's what attracts the best QBs and best skill position players. We hear it all the time as reported by the last few Ducks head coaches: "We go into recruits' houses and they constantly tell us that Oregon is their dream school." Those recruits remember OFFENSES led by Chip Kelly and executed by the likes of Masoli, LaMichael James, Kenon Barner, MARIOTA, DeAnthony Thomas, Royce Freeman, Thomas Tyner, Mael, Darron Thomas, etc. For whatever reason, the Cosmos chose Oregon to have the offense of a century for 4-6 years starting when they landed Chip Kelly, and the lasting image of the Ducks' blur offense is still paying dividends on the recruiting trail today. Even now, thinking about those Chip Kelly years brings me nostalgia I cannot repress. Nothing was more fun than running to take a 30-second bathroom break, only to realize that the Ducks had scored ANOTHER touchdown in that time. What if Kenny Dillingham is one of those offensive geniuses that come along 1 in every 4-5 years? Painful to see him go, right? Questions and Points to Ponder: - In my opinion, what I've seen so far from Kenny Dillingham is the best offense I've ever seen at Oregon. My "soon-to-be-released" offensive stats updates shows KD's offense as more efficient than 2017 (with only Taggert/Herbert games), 2014, and 2010. - Prepare yourself emotionally, because Kenny Dillingham will only be here one more year, max. - As a defensive HC, Dan Lanning has to get the OC right every 1-3 years. It's hard to strike gold every time you pick a new OC. - What happens to key offensive skill positions players (QB being the most important position, by far) when a stud OC leaves? Better chance of retaining the 5-star QBs when the offensive genius is the head coach. - If Kenny Dillingham is the key relationship with 5* Dante Moore and KD bolts for, let's say, ASU, with the promise of playing in KD's incredible offense, does Dante Moore follow KD, or roll the dice with the next OC? - As we've seen the past few years, constantly changing OCs and offensive philosophies, IMO, have stunted the growth and development of blue chip QB recruits languishing on Oregon's bench. There's a setback in a QB's development every time they have to reset and learn a new scheme and terminology. - Look no further than Riley and DeBoer as an example of the advantage of having an offensive genius as HC. Those teams have ~40 ppg built-in every year until those coaches decide to leave, regardless of how many OC's cycle through. - In the AP Top 25, only Alabama and Georgia are led by "Defensive Geniuses". They benefit from having near-NFL players on their entire roster, including the bench. If Nick Saban and his current staff were suddenly USC's staff, would USC be averaging ~40 ppg competing for a playoff spot? I think not. ** This is not a call for getting rid of Lanning, but more of a thought experiment in what you'd prefer a head coach specialize in for the best long-term prospects: offense or defense. BUT if you knew you had an offensive genius OC, does it give you pause? Does it at least make you consider making a crazy, bold move to ensure he doesn't get away, even if you have a "Defensive Genius" HC who's having a fairytale start?

We have two weeks to talk about it, so we might as well talk about it. The last time UCLA legitimately beat Oregon was in 2004* * Asterisk because technically UCLA beat Oregon in 2017 when a generational QB in Justin Herbert was out injured and, instead, UCLA had to face the "mighty" Burmeister. UCLA also beat Oregon in 2007, in the Ducks' first game after Heisman frontrunner, Dixon, went down. In that game, UCLA had to battle the "daunting", inexperienced trio of Kempt, Leaf, and Roper. Oregon doesn't lose those games if they have their starting QB. This upcoming game with UCLA has me nervous because of one primary factor: DTR (Dorian Thompson-Robinson) What scares me is how consistently DTR is playing this year. In years past, you could count on DTR to be very streaky; unstoppable one quarter, and then horrendous the next. Now, he looks good all the time. A consistent, good decision-making QB that can run paired with Chip Kelly is a dangerous thing (reminds me of Mariota). Here's some DTR stats, and be prepared for some wild improvement: Not predicting a loss, but it sure feels like a coin toss at this point. What are your thoughts, keys, feelings about the game?

Now that we're about 1/3 of the way through the season, thought I'd post an update of how the Lanning/Dillingham offense is doing compared to other coaches/years. For now, the offense seems middle of the road (caveat, the GA game is weighing heavily on these stats) with the exception of the passing game. Ducks are producing in the passing game the likes we've not seen since Helfrich/Mariota teamed up in 2013/2014.

Question: "What's wrong with Tyler? That's not the guy we've ever seen last season in this offense. Any rhyme or reason why he's struggling right now?" Answer by MC: "Scheme change, you know. It's different." What's incredible is that MC gives the CORRECT answer. His scheme IS the problem in and of itself, but he can't/won't recognize it. He thinks the problem is that the QB isn't proficient enough in his scheme, rather than his offensive (emphasis on "offensive") philosophy is the Heisman hopeful QB destroyer. Also, I've noticed a change in MC. Anyone else see it??:

Thought I’d ask the OBD about this since I’m more of an observer than an Xs and Os specialist. For context, USC is ranked 3rd in the nation, so far, averaging 4.7 sacks per game; WSU is tied for 6th with 4.0 sacks per game. Oregon is ranked 120th at 0.5 sacks per game. You wouldn’t believe the company Oregon is keeping at the bottom of the nation: Georgia is tied for last averaging 0.0 sacks per game. I believe they have 1 sack in 3 games while also limiting three opponents to basically zero points. Is it a coincidence that DL and Kirby are both down at the bottom? Is there a defensive scheme that would feature limiting an opponent’s points while getting few sacks? I’m still concerned about the Ducks’ lack of a pass rush. I feel like USC will eat us alive if the Ducks can’t generate pressure. Would like to hear your thoughts.

Time for some real talk. I don’t care how creative or scary the name for the uniform color combo, those uniforms are brown. Brown uniforms should never . . . EVER be used again by the Ducks.

For those interested, here’s BYU sports talk discussing the Oregon v BYU game. Always intriguing to here the other side’s take on the matchup:

We saw portions of this during the game, but here is all of Dan Lanning "mic'd up". He sounds very genuine and has more of a "hip" vibe that I think the players will really connect with. GO DUCKS!!

Regarding QBs, I believe the saying goes, “If you have two QBs, you actually have none.” Could something similar be said about RBs?: “If you have five RBs, you actually have none.” I understand the benefit of having depth at the position, but to play all 5 RBs regularly in games is starting to feel like a disadvantage. Similar to QBs, how does a RB get into a rhythm and begin to get a feel for the flow of the entire offense? If RBs are used situationally based on specific skills how do they develop into an “all-around” RB? Furthermore, won’t the situational use of RBs become a “tell” for opposing defenses for what play, or set of plays, is coming next? In Lanning’s press conferences, he makes it sound like playing 5 RBs is a feature of the offense rather than a way to establish “starters” vs “backups”. I want the cream to rise to the top. I want to have a RB the likes of James, Barner, or Freeman lighting up defenses on a regular basis. What are you thoughts about this? Hoping members of the OBD Forum can ease my mind on the topic.

I have to comment on the difference between MC and Lanning. MC would have drained the clock to go into the half up 28-7 (assuming MC could have mustered 28 points). After the Ducks got to 35, they stopped EWU with two minutes left in the 2nd quarter and Dan Lanning APPROPRIATELY used a timeout to conserve time to TRY AND SCORE AGAIN BEFORE THE HALF!! It was the first timeout of the entire half used by the Ducks. Thank you, Dan Lanning.

I imagine that a backup QB will get in if the momentum is carried through the 3rd quarter.

The more I watch Cardwell the more I struggle to know if he runs with patience or a lack or urgency. I think there’s a fine line.

Looks like the two transfer RBs are staking claim in the regular rotation.

Offense using TE’s is awesome! Nice TD; it feels good to get that one.

A defensive stop. This is good!

Now that the dust has settled, here are my thoughts about the game. Caveat, these are in no particular order: - Expectations are nine-tenths of inner peace. After this game, our expectations need to change. However, for those who expected the Ducks to beat GA and be a playoff contender, the expectation pendulum need not swing all the way in the opposite direction. - I was surprised the Ducks could not get a single stop against the Georgia starters, but I did not expect the Ducks to keep it a low scoring game, either. - There was lots of talk about the Ducks being poor at tackling last year. I don’t recall noticing that from the prior year (I wasn’t really looking for it), but boy did it stand out in this game. - In my observation over the years, I’ve seen offenses turn on a dime (i.e., new coach, scheme, or the right QB and a bad offense can pop from bad to good), BUT I’ve never seen a defense with basically the same personnel go from bad to great overnight. Seems like the defense takes time and needs continuity. - Speaking of continuity, this game against GA reminded me that, while all this great recruiting over the years has been exciting, I couldn’t help but long for a fraction of the continuity among the coaching staff the Ducks had just prior to the Taggart hiring. - I long for the time when we found our QB young and he played for 2-3 years under the same OC and/or system. - As counterintuitive as it seems given the Ducks did not score a touchdown, I liked what I saw from the offense (minus the mistakes). The Ducks moved the ball the entire game against perhaps the best defense in college football. The Ducks had 21 first downs to Georgia’s 26. Ducks also had more rushing yards. - I literally clapped at many of the plays Dillingham called on 3rd downs; some really creative and misleading passing plays that fooled GA’s defense. The kind of plays MC would never allow in a million years (though his Miami team put up 70 points, so that’s scary). The offense converted on 3rd down 7 times. - Don’t expect Lanning’s defense to shut down BYU, Utah, or USC (if circumstances allow) this year. To achieve this, it will take time and recruiting his players. Even that may not be enough against a humming Lincoln Riley offense, but you don’t have to hold USC to 0, you just have to score more points. - Bo Nix can punt . . . - Not a single wasted timeout throughout the entire game. Standing ovation to Dan Lanning! - The Ducks’ uniforms were beautiful. Never stop having the best uniforms, please. - Continuity/time/patience are needed for this to work out. I think Dan Lanning can do it. I hope the OC and a QB (I like Butterfield) that can start for the next 2-3 years can work together for some time. What are your thoughts about the game?

The Dan Lanning effect so far: - No dumb timeouts - 4 GA possessions, 4 GA touchdowns Have to admit, I expected more . . . actually I didn’t. You’re only as good as the talent you have. At best I expected only marginal improvement from the defense this year.

Yes

I hear the calls for TT, but I WANT BUTTERFIELD!!

Here's an update to the offensive data I've been tracking. I figure I won't go back any further than 2007 as it marks the year Chip Kelly took over the offense and, as they say, "the rest is history." Updates: - Now includes Ducks in 2007 and 2008 with Bellotti has head coach. - Added "Points per Attempt" on the far right column (my attempt at an efficiency metric). Look at all the green around Kelly/Helfrich!! I have a proposal: Take a look at footnote "**". If Dillingham doesn't work out, how about extending an olive branch to Taggart as the replacement OC? Obviously I suggest that knowing how unlikely that would be but, DANG!, Taggart sure knew how to make the offense run with Herbert. If Herbert had stayed healthy, we could have witnessed the single greatest season of offensive production in Duck history. Will be fun to track Dillingham's 2022 offense this year

Totally agree. He looked confident, calm, and in control . . . even if he threw a pick. He looks very natural and comfortable throwing the football.