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GeotechDuck
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Posts posted by GeotechDuck
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It is amazing the amount of mistakes the conference has made in the last 13 years. I saw this timeline on social media. The conference had so many opportunities to take advantage and stay relevant. Any of these moves probably would have saved the conference.
Jan 2010: The Conference of Champions, highly respected and in a position of power announces the formation of expansion committee
Sept 2010: Narrowly miss on signing TX, OU, TX Tech, OK St, and A&M when A&M backs out at the 11th hour
Sept 2011: Decline to accept TX into the Pac-12 due to LHNSept 2011: Reject OU & OK State's application for admission w/o TX
Aug 2021: Decline to extend invitations to TCU, Baylor, & TX Tech after the schools asked for a lifeline.
June 2022: USC & UCLA announce they're leaving the Pac-12 and the conference is blindsided.
Feb 2023: Dragging their feet but needing to invite G5s San Diego St & SMU to keep the conference alive for a few more years.
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Altman just missed the past two years recruiting guards and this team is severely limited offensively. You can't put all the blame on Richardson when Barth, Rigsby, and Soares go 3 for 21 from the floor. Don't get me wrong, as I am not defending Richardson's play, but I understand what he was trying to do last night. He was getting the ball to his teammates at the soft spots in the zone and getting good looks for them. However, as a 5th year PG, you cannot site back and allow your teammates to just shoot you out of the game with the entire season on the line. At some point, you have to get more aggressive and take control of the game. On top of that, it is not like Oregon's guards are good shooters and just had a night off. This has been going on all season.
I see a lot of people on social media calling for Richardson to be benched. Which one of these guards are you giving his minutes to?
Rigsby shoots 39% from the floor and 27% from three
Soares shoots 37% from the floor and 25% from three
Williams has 14 total baskets in 131 minutes of playing time and shoots 0% from three
Barthelemy is a little better at 41% from the floor and 35% from three, but is a liability on defense
The fact is that Richardson and Cousinard are the only guards on the roster that have the ability to score the ball with some consistency while playing decent defense. If you are Altman, there is no option to bench them.
Soares is incredibly limited on the offensive end, but is getting minutes because of his defense, his hustle and ability to actually make some FTs. It's not like you could run Soares out there with Rigsby and Williams and have any success in a 1/2 court offense.
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On 2/15/2023 at 2:15 PM, Tandaian said:I don't feel like any of the remaining Pac 12 or Big 12 schools can be considered in that category.
I think the dollars would be there for Oregon (National) Washington (Seattle) and possibly the Arizona (Phoenix) schools. Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the country now.
The Big-12 has an escalation cause in their new GOR that allows for further expansion.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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Yeah...the longer this goes, the more likely that this thing falls apart. It is pretty clear that the dollars are not lining up right now, or this would have been done already. Now the conference is grasping at straws (SMU and SDSU) to try and get the numbers up into the ballpark of what Big-12 just signed.
Maybe you can get a short term fix by adding those two schools (and possibly some others), giving them a partial share, and funneling some portion of the money to the existing members. However, that is a short-term solution that is likely going to create problems down the road when the new schools are up for full shares.
This is my opinion and purely speculation, but my guess is that the current offer was around $25M per school and the conference is now looking at alternative ways to try and get that number closer to $32M, so they don't lose a bunch of schools to the Big-12. The problem is that they are not a lot of good options left when you are the last one at the table trying to make moves. Let's hope GK is creative and can find a way to keep this thing together for a few more years.
Hopefully Oregon is continuing to weigh all their options because I don't see a favorable outcome in the long term.
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On 2/14/2023 at 3:53 PM, Jon Joseph said:
That was the agreed-upon buyout for OK/TX. I do not think this number applies to the new media deal and I'm not sure the new media deal has been officially agreed to by all B12 members.
Not too long ago, Texas Tech among others was desperate to join the Pac-12. Shot down with USC Prez Folt leading the way. (Man I'd love to know if SC was already playing footsie with Warren and the B1G when the vote occured?) The Power 5 would have gone to the Power 4 and the Pac-20 would have been golden.
In the interim the Oregon prez left for Northwestern and a discouraging word never comes out of Mullens' mouth.
FOX manipulated the LA schools departure and Kevin Warren and by extension the entire B1G lied to the ACC and the Pac-12. Yet, other than for the CA trustees no one raised a peep as did Bob Bowlsby when ESPN raided OK/TX from the B12.
IMO, if UW, OR, CU, Utah, ASU and AZ went in concert to KS, K-St, OK St, TX Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston and Iowa State there could be a realistic shot at forming a strong western conference. One that could negotiate with ESPN, FOX and others and bring in more than the B12's $31.7M a year. But it's academia so it isn't going to happen. The only way to close the gap with the B1G and the SEC is for western teams to unify and reduce the Power 5 to the Power 4.
The Oregon brand is strong and I'm hoping for the best but I wish the stronger Pac-12 programs would push harder for a logical, mutually beneficial and financially viable deal for the western schools.
BTW, if the Pac-12 is too 'elite' to associate with B12 schools why are so many games including Oregon's next 6 P5 OOC games scheduled with the B12? Let CAL and Stanford join the Ivy League.
Modifying my post as it appears you are correct. Teams can jump after the next media deal expires.
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On 2/14/2023 at 2:54 PM, Dave23 said:
I just don't think spite will overpower the almighty dollar.
This is a good take and it is already happening. The PAC is going to allow USC and UCLA to stay in conference for a few sports, such as men's and women's beach volleyball. If I was the PAC-12 Commissioner, I would have told them to pound sand and to play their beach volleyball games in Piscataway, NJ in December, but that is probably why I am not in charge.
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On 2/14/2023 at 10:23 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:
What if UO and Fuskies just started talking with a couple top B12 teams about forming a new conference when the B12 media contract expired? With a nucleus of UO, UW, UU, Ok St and TCU, I’m sure a solid competitive conference of 12-14 schools could be formed.
I’d say taking this type of direction would be best in the long term and then whatever you get out of the upcoming contract wouldn’t be that big of a deal.
If both the Pac and B12 stay on the current course, years of receiving half or less than B10 and SEC schools will leave us being not much more than the Mountain West Conference.
I think we are looking “Go big or go home” directly in the eye and I don’t trust the Pac leadership at all at this point.
I agree and think it was a mistake by the two leagues to not look at merging these past 2 years. That was a huge missed opportunity. The BIG-12 GOR is $100M per school, outside of the media rights deal. IIRC, if you want out at any time, you now have to come up with $100M.
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On 2/14/2023 at 11:48 AM, Jon Joseph said:
While I continue to believe OREGON will be fine there is no doubt that the barbarians from the B12 are at the gates.
If UA or ASU jumped, it would be interesting to see if UO and UW would make a play for the BIG-12 or if they would try and stay put. That's a HUGE decision. Big-12 buyout is $100M now, so you are likely giving up the BIG dream. But if you stay and the BIG invite never comes.....Yikes!
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I have seen this movie before. Remember when John Marinatto and the Big East issued a statement about the Big East members being "committed" right before the conference collapsed? Buckle up!
Commissioner John Marinatto says schools committed to Big East
WWW.ESPN.COM
Big East commissioner John Marinatto says all the members of his conference are committed to staying together. -
On 2/13/2023 at 12:24 PM, Charles Fischer said:
I think that is an extreme view, and not likely.
Yeah....you are probably right. I think I am just a little frustrated. There were so many opportunities to make this a premier conference over the past 10 years and the conference totally blew it. Now Oregon is left to suffer the consequences.
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I am afraid the PAC-12 is past a point of no return. It has been one mistake after another:
1) Not closing the deal with Texas / OU in the first round of expansion.
2) Not getting a deal done with DirectTV for the PAC-12 channels.
3) In a position of power with the BIG-12 when Texas and OU announce their departure. Pac-12 sits on their hands and does nothing.
4) Blindsided by the LA schools' departure to the BIG.
5) Once again sit on their hands and let the BIG-12 jump the line on the media rights deal.
Now they are looking at SMU to save the conference? LOL! SMU is ranked as the 5th most watched school in it's own TV market and isn't ranked in the Top 85 schools in the country for viewership.
Too late! The Pac-12 had tons of options over the past 10 years and elected to sit and do nothing. I hate to be negative, but the Arizona schools are going to leave when they finally realize the dollars are going to be lower than the BIG-12 and that they are going to be stuck on a streaming platform. I fully expect this conference to collapse within the next six months.
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Considering the Arizona schools are actually a better fit with the BIG-12 anyways, I think we are pretty close to the end of the line. ASU is already pissed off about having most of the content on streaming. Now the dollars are not coming in on top of it. If the PAC-12 cannot get a media deal that is on par with the current BIG-12 deal, I fully expect the two AZ teams to jump ship in the next month or two.
The Pac-12 continues to make the same mistake over and over again. Sitting on your hands DOES NOT work.
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The game against USC is HUGE. Oregon has to have that one.
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Not to be negative, but I just don't see it. There are too many teams in the PAC that return a ton of experience and are very good teams - USC, Washington, Utah. Oregon has a roster with significant turnover, new OC, New OL coach, rebuilt OL and a bunch of unproven players on a defense that was pretty bad at times last season. They are going to take a couple losses. If Oregon can somehow win the PAC-12, I will jumping up and down.
I agree with Nevada Dawg, that the goal should be building the roster in time to make the 12-team playoff in year 4.
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In shocking news, girlfriends are still undefeated in recruiting.
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We are missing on both of these guys. Remember, Mothers and Girlfriends are undefeated in recruiting.
Who’s up next?
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On 1/27/2023 at 12:25 PM, mikethehiker said:
1 unit will always beat 5 players and it's beautiful to watch. It's very easy to observe on the defensive side of the floor.
Agree. This is why Villanova is consistently excellent (outside of this year, which is an anomaly). They sign a bunch of 4* kids that need multiple years in college and can work together to build success.
Compare that to Kentucky which consistently signs a Top 3 recruiting class with a bunch of "1 and dones" and they usually get bounced in the tourney by a team with lesser talent.
I believe there is a story in The Athletic right now about the current 34 five-star freshman in college basketball this year and how only about 5% of them have had a major impact on their team's success. I don't think this is about Oregon or Altman missing on the 5* recruits they get. I think it is more likely that 95% of them take time to adjust to college ball just like everyone else. It is so rare that you actually get a guy like Carmelo Anthony that puts an entire college basketball team on their back and blasts through the post season.
I wish Oregon would move back more towards the Villanova model and away from the Kentucky model.
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On 1/22/2023 at 3:30 PM, 2002duck said:
I'm not buying that USC can not be a top dog in the B1G. Michigan has made some great strides the past few years, but since 2000 they have not exactly been living up to a "Blue Blood" program. Oregon has out-performed Michigan and USC in that time frame, and I eagerly await our invitation and gracious acceptance to the B1G. Like Andy Dufresne said, "Get busy living, or get busy dying."
It's funny how USC complains about Oregon stealing their SoCal recruits. What do they think tOSU and Michigan are going to do?
However, generally I agree. USC will quickly become dominate the BIG conference. Outside of tOSU, it is very overrated. Oregon is 9-0 against current and incoming BIG conference members since 2017.
However, UCLA is completely toast. This is a TERRIBLE move for them.
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Ouch! Not a glowing endorsement from Doug:
https://twitter.com/gottliebshow/status/1616588688129130496?s=46&t=ENaL5JDABVmYNY9EjGuYoA
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On 1/18/2023 at 1:18 PM, Just Ducky said:
Cut cable almost 3 years ago and will never go back. I’m in my middle 70s so if a man of my age can do it so can you. I spend that money on something else now. My internet bill included Hulu and Disney+ and is still less than 1/2 what my cable bill was. Comcast is a rip off.
Completely agree. My combined internet, cable TV, and telephone land line 9 years ago was approaching $250 a month. At the time, I was a group manager in my early 40s and all of my staff were in their late 20s and early 30s. I was the only one in the entire group that had cable. They convinced me to cut the cord. Honestly, it was a painful month of figuring out what I needed, switching apps, downloading, using an HD antenna, etc.
Once I got used to it and got everything lined up and working for me, I was super excited about it. I have access to more content than I ever had with cable, including every Duck football and basketball game. The best part is that when I am not watching anything on a specific streaming service, I can pause my subscription without penalty. I have cut my internet / TV bill in half for the past 8 years and couldn't be happier.
Also with streaming there are deals everywhere. For example, my wife has an Amazon account for her business, so Prime is free for us. AT&T wireless offers free HBO Max with your online wireless plan. American Express offers discount Hulu service if you sign up with Amex card, which I believe is $2.99 a month.
Cable will be completely gone in 10 years. I think Oregon and the Pac-12 should be all-in on streaming and get the first seat at the table. The world is changing quickly and they really have nothing to lose at this point.
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Once again those two Quadrant 3 losses are going to be very difficult to overcome. If they can go 10-3 the rest of the way, as the poster above noted, they may have a chance.
However, this is a very poor shooting team and it is going to very, very difficult to accomplish that. Cuisnard was the hero against UA, but he is a career sub 40% shooter. Shots are probably not going to fall for him like that every night.
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When I was younger, I was at pretty much every Oregon Football and Basketball game. Now I am lucky if I hit one a year. Time and money are a contributing factor, but not the main one. I believe that fan experience has changed dramatically over the years. I don't want to be one of those "it was better when I was in school" guys, but........
The Pit >>>> Matt
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On 12/31/2022 at 9:33 AM, Charles Fischer said:
Whoops. He admits that you have to change her mind from Michigan...
I wrote him off as a possibility as soon as I saw this.
Remember, Mothers and Girlfriends are still undefeated in recruiting.-
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SDSU and UNLV are both in major sports media markets and are both R1 research schools. They both have potential to be solid contributors and fit well into the PAC-10 landscape. Neither adds value to the conference immediately, but the conference should consider them for their future potential. It is not like the PAC-10 is in a position of power right now.
FSU, BSU and SMU? IMO, none of these other 3 schools should get any consideration:
FSU & BSU - They have had some football success, which is why the names are probably floating out there. However, I think there is a 0% chance the Pac-10 adds these schools. They don't align with the other universities in the conference from an academic or Olympic sport standpoint. Not only are they not AAU Universities, they are not even R1 or R2 research schools. They do not increase the value of the conference or provide a significant increase in viewership.
SMU - A religious school with a 30k seat stadium that is not within a reasonable footprint of the Pac-10. Throw in the fact that the Big-12 didn't offer in their last expansion, because they are not one of the 5 most watched college teams in Texas. There is a 0% chance that Cal and Stanford will agree to add SMU just for the religious part, let alone all the other issues that come with adding that school.
I would argue that Colorado State, Utah State, and University of Nevada Reno should have a better shot than FSU, BSU, or SMU. Although, I have their chances at 0% right now too, but at least they kind of fit the profile of a typical Pac-10 membership school.
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THE PAC-16 - Time to Go to a 'Super Conference?'
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
I was in the "do anything to save the conference" group, but I think I am moving more towards this way of thinking. I don't see how adding SMU, Fresno, Boise, UNLV, Tulane, and/or SDSU is a long-term solution. What happens when those schools are up for a full share in the next media rights window? Everyone in the conference is going to take a smaller piece of the pie and the PAC gets further behind?
I am leaning towards a move to the Big-12 under the right circumstances. Would the Big-12 be willing to add Oregon and Washington with an escape clause in the GOR if the BIG comes calling? Without Oregon and Washington, the PAC-10 crumbles and the four corner schools all head to the Big-12. Now the Big-12 has was they want - the 4 corner school under a GOR, plus they get Oregon (national brand) and Washington (Seattle Market) until the BIG comes calling. If the BIG never comes calling, they have probably secured themselves as the 3rd best conference in football and the best conference in college basketball....by a mile.