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GeotechDuck
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Posts posted by GeotechDuck
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Yeah. I am with all of you. I am really going to miss the PAC-12. It is bumming me out, but maybe the buffalo trace and IPAs are helping a little bit right now.
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Yes please!! I think it is a long shot, but the SEC would be awesome. It is for sure better than the Big-12 or staying put.
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On 7/1/2022 at 2:34 PM, 1Ducker1 said:
well maybe but Stanford has a small viewership and terrible attendance.
I know, but it is not like Rutgers and Maryland are any better. Academics, grants, and other things are at play here I am afraid.
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On 7/1/2022 at 2:11 PM, fred flintstone said:
Sorry......but if ND agrees it will probably not be Oregon.
Cal, Stanford or Washington all fit better if my guess is correct.
They all have more powerful academics. larger schools, very large markets and don't present a situation in the NIL era in which a rich person who is extremely supportive can outbid the rest of the league for talent.
Even USC or UCLA, now members of the Big 10 might veto Oregon membership. They want the southern Cal recruiting for themselves. Weakening Oregon only helps them. Having Oregon in an expanded Big 12 does that. Playing Stanford and Cal is an easier and closer road game for the LA teams. Neither recruits well in CA.
As a USC fan I don't see what USC did positively in the long term. The travel is going to kill them.......but.........they sure screwed the rest of the conference......particularly, Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. The other pac 12 members really never belonged in a power 5 or can make a good fit with the Big 12 easily.
IMO Oregon is going to have to make lemonade out of lemons and join the Big 12......if they can......and since most of the markets in an expanded BIG 12 are growing much faster than the midwest.....might end up just fine.
I don’t like this take, but I agree with it. If ND joins, Stanford is the team the BiG is adding.
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On 7/1/2022 at 12:46 PM, Quackerbacker said:
On board with you David. If ND says yes then its a green light for Oregon, Washington, and probably Stanford.
if ND says no then it's Oregon & Washington for sure and possibly two others to get to 20. There is no way that they only take Stanford. From an eyeballs standpoint that makes no sense.
So my only question then is why do they have to wait for a decision by ND to decide if they are going to add the UO / UW package? Clearly the ND decision has some impact on if they take and find the UO /UW package valuable?
Any ideas here?
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On 7/1/2022 at 12:35 PM, DazeNconfused said:
ND is the big fish because they will bring a lot of revenue.
ND has an agreement with the ACC. Based on ND playing a partial ACC schedule there is a clause that if ND joins a conference it has to be the ACC.
So, the lawyers are going to have to justify why ND can break that agreement.
It's also my understanding that any ACC school who leaves the ACC before 2035 has to pay a $50 million fee.
That $50M is not an issue, as the $100M a year revenue sharing is double what ND makes in a year. They will make that up after the first season.
To your point, can lawyers get it done. I don't see the money as an issue.
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On 7/1/2022 at 12:31 PM, David Marsh said:
The B1G didn't really say no thanks but more like... Wait a minute and we'll see.
Adding Oregon and Washington may be their desired outcome but until Notre Dame makes their decision the B1G doesn't want to make too many moves.
If Notre Dame says yes I think they add Oregon and Washington right away and probably pick Stanford.
As Stanford and Notre Dame play yearly right now as well. It's probably also the best single team that is located in the bay area in terms of market share.
Cal is pretty uninteresting in that regard.
Or the scary version....they take ND and then pick up Stanford and say 18 is good.
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Pac-12 with only the Big-12 still leaves us in mid-major territory. IMO it would need to include the top teams from the PAC, Big-12, and ACC to stay relevant.
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The BIG essentially said "no thanks" at the moment to the UW / UO package. That is NOT a good sign for Oregon. The SEC and BIG know that Oregon, Washington, Utah and Stanford have little to no power right now. They can just sit back and wait for the conference to dissolve and see if they can pick up whomever stays on top for cents on the dollar (reduced percentage of revenue sharing) or just let the other schools drop off after they get raked over the recruiting coals. I have a really bad feeling all of a sudden that Oregon is in BIG BIG trouble.
How different could this have been if we just found a way to close the deal with Texas, OU, and Oklahoma State last time around?
UGH!
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The Big-10 has played their hand. They said they are waiting on a decision on Notre Dame to determine if they are going to expand further. it is really easy to read between the lines here.
Translation - We really want ND and don’t want an odd number of schools.
If ND says no, they stay at 16.
if ND says yes, they need one more team. Likely candidates are Oregon, UW, Stanford, or UNC.
Oregon and UW expressed interest as a package and BIG essentially said no thanks. If they wanted to get to 20, that would have been an easy yes.
I think our hope is that we are No 2 on the board after ND and ND says yes. Not to sure that either one of those are correct.
The only other option to stay relevant is a merger between the ACC, Big-12, and PAC-12, taking the largest schools with the best TV markets:
Something like FSU, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah, Texas Tech, Okie State, Houston, Cinci….
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Yeah. This is a recruiting disaster. I can already hear the “Oregon is essentially a mid major” narrative coming coach’s mouths.
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On 6/30/2022 at 6:50 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:
As I have state before. Why not take the whole West Coast TV market? It’s not about records or skill. Rutgers and Maryland proved that.
This is an interesting point. Is this really about football revenue for the BIG? Or is actually about grant money which dwarfs football revenue? Does that play a roll here?
There has to be a reason that the BIG added Maryland, Rutgers, and UCLA and not Oregon, who is Top 10 in football viewership.
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On 6/30/2022 at 4:33 PM, Axel said:
When the Brooklyn Dodgers abandoned New York in 1957, they needed a second team to join them on the West Coast and provide scheduling balance, so they convinced the New York Giants to leave Manhattan in the same year.
The new Big Ten--with USC and UCLA--would need more West Coast teams to provide the same kind of scheduling balance. These schools are not going to want to travel 1,500 miles or more for away conference games. I can envision a 10-team Big Ten West and a 10-team Big Ten East in a 20-team Big Ten:
Big Ten West
Oregon
Cal
Stanford
Washington
UCLA
USC
Nebraska
Iowa
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Big Ten East
Maryland
Rutgers
Penn State
Michigan State
Michigan
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
Northwestern
Ohio State
This would be awesome.
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Yes. Oregon should be on the phone non stop right now with the BIG, SEC, and BIG-12, in that order until they have a deal in place.
the LA times is writing like it is a done deal. At this point you have to assume they are gone.
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This is amazing! Joel wins the internet for the day.
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If the Big-10 was really interested in adding more teams, I think they would have made that play now and it would have come out. Unfortunately, I think that ship has probably sailed for Oregon. Oregon doesn't have a major TV market and although we are an AAU school, the Wall Street Journal article that came out ranking Oregon 12th in the Pac-12 (and 375 nationally) in academics probably won't help our case.
As someone pointed out above, the ACC is going to be sweating and will probably look to add two more teams immediately to secure their 16 team conference to be in line with the Big-10 and SEC.
I agree with TKK. I think Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal need to go to the Big-12 immediately and make a play to join that conference.
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The “Oregon is going to be a mid major in two years” narrative should help with recruiting.
Unbelievable. I hope Oregon is out in front of this and has a plan to respond quickly.
I really believed the addition of NIL and conference realignment would be a huge benefit for Oregon. I am starting to think I was wrong.
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Yikes! I hope we have a good backup plan.
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Houston is an interesting case, because Houston is a major TV market. Now that Houston is in a Power-5 conference, I am betting they will launch them up that list pretty quickly, especially if they have some immediate success. I guess we will find out when they officially start playing games in the Big-12.
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Am I correct that Thompson and Butters have both used their redshirts now and since the May 1st deadline has passed, if either leave between now and the end of next season, they will not be eligible until the following season?
If so, it makes no sense for either to transfer until the completion of next season.
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On 6/23/2022 at 9:49 AM, woundedknees said:
Guard heavy?
For sure. That team is going to need to drain a bunch of threes, as rebounds will not come easy!
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On 6/15/2022 at 4:20 PM, Notalot said:
"Looking for Mayberry"....
The Andy Griffith Mayberry was based on a small town in the Blue Ridge mountains named Mt. Airy. N.C.
The area is offline, but generally between Charlotte, N.C. and Roanoke, VA. The surrounding area has comparatively reasonable costs-of-living. rolling vistas, a mild climate, generally good schools ( do your research), and enjoys steady growth.
Nearby Galax, Virginia is the home of the national Old-Time Fiddler's convention.
I now live in South Carolina. Regarding the South, the past 10 years has brought enormous growth to the more desireable locales and popular cities. Demand for housing since 2019 is off the charts with housing prices responding accordingly.
Where the comparable value is not what it once was, buyers moving from high priced markets in the NW and NE find considerable value and cost savings with huge tax savings here.
There are very low-priced pockets, but buyer beware. We know the economy is squirrely now. Some will score opportunities and some will suffer.
What lifestyle do you want? Are you culturally adaptable,? How much tolerance to risk do you have?
There is more to life than money, but an affordable and well-liked domicile and locale adds a lot. Don't forget access to healthcare as you consider retirement as you will need more doctors and possibly specialized practices than in your younger years.
The Carolinas are awesome. I lived in Raleigh for 5 years and loved it. It is becoming more expensive, but is still on sale if you are coming from the west coast.
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Interesting. I had seen some rumors that he was headed to Memphis. It will be interesting to see how he does the next couple seasons.
Clearly in Left Field...The PAC Retains All Schools
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted · Edited by GeotechDuck
The revenue sharing for the new BIG media deal is estimated at $80 to $100M per year per team. It will be well over $1B with the addition of UCLA and USC.