A National Championship Drought: Mens Indoor Track about to WIN A BIG ONE?

[Charles Fischer]

The Indoor Track Championships are taking place this week with the events beginning tomorrow.  The Men are ranked currently at No. 1, but you and I know that means nothing--only that talent is there.  The Ducks have not won a National Championship in any sports for a number of years now, and I wondering if any of you know Track can chime in.  What are our chances?

 

The national leader of the 60 yard dash is right out of Oregon (the pride of Benson High!) in Micah Williams and was a big recruit for Coach Robert Johnson.  Can they do it?

 

[Bruce3404]

The Duck men should win this meet easily.   There are only two teams this year worth discussing:  The Ducks and the LSU men.  A third team with good numbers is BYU, but because cross country became a Spring sport due to the virus, they've decided to go all-in for Monday's XC championships.  The Ducks went the other direction, putting little focus on XC this year.   A look at the entry list shows that the Ducks should score 71 points based on individual seedings going into the meet, while LSU might anticipate 48 points. 

 

The Ducks have a great depth advantage in the Distance Medley Relay and will possibly only run one of the team members from the NCAA record-setting team, thus resting such superstars as Cole Hocker and Cooper Teare for their individual events; if the meet is well in hand prior to the 3000, the Ducks may forego Hocker's anticipated 8 points and keep him on the bench.  No point in running a freshman super hard if the meet is clinched. 

 

If one looks at the schedule and if everything goes to form, the Ducks should clinch as early as Saturday's first event (men's mile) and no later than the 800 less than an hour after the mile.  Almost half of LSU's points will come from field events and field events tend to be less predictable than running events, so LSU will have to be on top of their game to even make this meet close. 

 

That said, any Duck track fan must remember the incredible 2017 women's team that frittered away a huge pre-meet edge which resulted in the meet literally going down to the last seconds in the 4x400, seconds which put Raevyn Rogers on the new Hayward tower.  I'll follow this posting with ways to watch the meet.

[Bruce3404]

There are numerous ways to watch this on TV, even though ESPN3 is more or less an online thing for some.  Fortunately Amazon Fire, Roku, etc, should allow watching on TV, BUT you' may have to pay a bit even if your TV provider supplies the other ESPN networks.  Good news is that it's only $5.99 for one month on Roku and that'll also get you the XC meet next Monday.  It seems that one used to be able to watch for free with a DISH subscription that included ESPN.  I guess you still can, but only on a computer.  Worst case scenario is that $5.99 for one month.

I scanned the ESPN website (and the Roku directory) for times and while they'll tell you when an event starts, they're ambiguous about when it finishes since on several days they are showing two different start times.  Do they run together or is there a break in programming?  I guess we'll have to wait and see. 

 

So here are the current schedules and I'm using CST, since that's meet time:
Thursday--11AM.  That's good since they come in right on time for the multis.  Will they stick with them?  Will they show the weight throws which occur as late as 6:30PM for the men?
Friday--1:45PM.  Hmmm.....I guess they don't want to show us the MSP, MHJ, WSP, WHJ and the Hep 60H and PV.  They do come on just in time for the HEP 1000m
Friday--6:15PM.  Hopefully they'll run the first segment through the men's DMR final at 3:45, after which there's a break until the WPV at 6:15PM
Saturday--12:30PM.  Just in time for the MPV start and I assume this time slot will take us through the Men's 4x4 at 3:20
Saturday--5PM.  Interesting start time.  The only event prior to 6PM is the WTJ, so they'll get center stage for an hour! (Note that the Ducks have two entries in the WTJ)
Saturday--8PM.  This is just for the trophy presentations which usually take place minutes after the meet ends (unless there's a protest of some sort).  In this case the women's 4x4 ends around 7:25PM.  My guess is that the 5PM show will just continue to run until the trophies are presented.

So for us Duck fans, it appears we'll miss seeing some of Max Vollmer live in the Heptathlon, but nothing else that involves Ducks.

Here's a link to the meet schedule:  https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/crosstrack/d1/indoortf/2020-21D1XTI_ScheduleOfEvents.pdf

[Charles Fischer]

32 minutes ago, Bruce3404 said:

The Duck men should win this meet easily. 

 

Bruce...this is incredible information that we are very grateful for!  I knew we were favored, but not like that--wow.  It would be so cool to win NC No. 34, and yes Washington....(and the Powells) the Ducks will continue winning.  Thanks again Bruce, and we would love an occasional update here.

 

Speaking of Raevyn Rogers....

[ChileDuck]

As Bruce writes, the form charts show the Oregon men with a fantastic chance of winning a national championship this weekend.   I have a web app that lets you see the form charts based on seed positions which reflect the best marks this year, as well as the form chart from the prognosticators at FloTrack, the track and field streaming site.   The app also allows users to create and share their own predictions by dragging athletes' finishing positions in each event, adjusting the team totals automatically.   The real track enthusiast will want use the app during the championships  because it will update the form charts as event results happen.    Here is a link: formcharttracker.com .

 

Here are a couple screenshots showing the projections based on seed positions and those from FloTrack.   While the folk at FloTrack often down grade the Ducks, even they show a big margin in favor of Oregon.   

  

 

Here are the Oregon Athletes and the seed position projections:

[Charles Fischer]

Another great track fan in ChileDuck!  Thanks so much...and perhaps I will stay in touch by text to post updates here?  My thanks again to you both for such great information, as some of us really lap it up!

 

                                      Original Hayward Field...

 

                                        New Hayward Field...

                                             Think it might help recruiting?

[TheRunningDuck]

The Oregon women recently won indoor track championships in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 while the men won them in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Edited March 10, 2021 by TheRunningDuck

[Charles Fischer]

In a period of just over three years from 2014 to 2017....Oregon won 11 National Championships and it would appear that over six of them were in Indoor Track.  (Thanks RunningDuck!)  The others were won in Outdoor Track, Cross Country and Mens Golf.  

 

Oregon won more National Championships in that three years than Washington has won (8) in over 130 years!  Ouch!

 

[Aix11]

That said, any Duck track fan must remember the incredible 2017 women's team that frittered away a huge pre-meet edge which resulted in the meet literally going down to the last seconds in the 4x400, seconds which put Raevyn Rogers on the new Hayward tower. 

 

I was at the finish line (20 rows up) for that incredibly exciting finish by Ms. Rogers (after winning the 800 shortly before) in the 4by.. While sprinting around Bowerman's Corner, the crowd of 12,000+ stood screaming and treated us to perhaps the best finish ever (certainly in recent memory) at historic Hayward Field!! As Bruce 3404 mentioned, in my words, our women's team came very close to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory as the day proceeded. After that performance, Ms. Rogers earned her spot on the beautiful Oregon Tower at Hayward Field! 

[ChicoDuck]

2 hours ago, Charles Fischer said:

 

Bruce...this is incredible information that we are very grateful for!  I knew we were favored, but not like that--wow.  It would be so cool to win NC No. 34, and yes Washington....(and the Powells) the Ducks will continue winning.  Thanks again Bruce, and we would love an occasional update here.

 

Speaking of Raevyn Rogers....

What a cool name.

[Mallard]

21 hours ago, Bruce3404 said:

There are numerous ways to watch this on TV,      Check out  https://trackducks.boards.net/

 

 

 

 

Here's a link to the meet schedule:  https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/crosstrack/d1/indoortf/2020-21D1XTI_ScheduleOfEvents.pdf

 

[Bruce3404]

Day one at the NCAAs is pretty much confined to the men's and women's multis, along with the weight throw (which has no Ducks, nor any members of teams competing for the men's title).  All projections showed that Max Vollmer would gain three points for the Ducks after tomorrow's final event and that seems pretty much in the bag, with a decent opportunity to even move up.  I've taken today's standings, added personal bests for the top 9 (remember, only 8 score) and come up with the following projection for tomorrow:

The current standings which show 1)Garland 3555, 2)Neugebauer 3534, 3) Tilga 3529, 4)Wolter 3335, 5)Owens 3329, 6)Spyridonis 3241 7) Vollmer 3239, Haack 3192 and 9)Spejcher 3123. Perhaps the surprise is that Wolter, not projected to score, sits in 4th. As you'll see, he's really a first day guy.
Final projections based on PBs are 1) Garland 6209, 2) Tilga 6166, 3)Neugebauer 6065, 4) Owens 5931, 5) Haack 5908, 6) Vollmer 5899, 7)Spyridonis 5782 and Wolter 5383 (a position that could easily be taken by a good second day guy languishing back in 12th currently.

With a great day, Vollmer could move up to 4th and it's doubtful he'd move down barring disaster, so the Ducks get their projected 3 points (with the help of #3 projection Ballangee going out after one event) and a good opportunity to gain more. Tilga is the only good runner in the 1000, about 8 seconds better than anyone else in contention, but Vollmer could pick off Haack as their times are almost identical and 1/2 a second is worth roughly 5 points.  Should Max have a good day and Owens falter a bit, 4th is a real possibility.

So on a perfect day, Garland is still almost 300 points under Eaton's 2010 CR, yet another testament to Eaton's amazing talent.

 

While I'm paying some attention to the women, or at least the women Ducks, our heptathlete (freshman Matilde Rey) was projected to finish 6th, but badly underperformed in the shot put and somewhat underperformed in the HJ.  She did at least equal her personal bests in the LJ and 60H and she's a good runner, so very possible she'll move up from her current 10th position as the final event, the 800, can be a real achilles heel for a lot of athletes and Rey is not far from Brianne Theisen class in the 800.  In fact, looking at all the other athletes ahead of Rey, she has a realistic chance to move from 10th to 4th in the final standings.  Sadly, it didn't happen as she only moved up to 9th, one slot from scoring position.  Good job for a freshman and we were treated to a collegiate record of 4746, which took down Kendall Williams' 4703 from 2016.  This makes Tyra Gittens a great possibility for future US Championship squads.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Bruce3404

[Charles Fischer]

Wow Bruce....you are a fan of Track & Field!  We are fortunate and appreciative of your updates!

 

Great to hear we are on track with the first event.

[Bruce3404]

The Duck men lost a bit of ground on day 2 while projected runner-up LSU gained a bit.  The big loss for the Ducks was Luis Peralta who was projected to score 4 points in the 800, but failed to qualify for the final.  The Ducks did add at least one potential point in the 60 since Gaston Bouchereau wasn't projected to make the final, but he did.  Otherwise, the Ducks held form and, in the only final involving Ducks today, the men won the DMR in a race that featured three teams that would have broken the collegiate record prior to this season. 

 

The Duck win was only about 1/2 second off their existing CR, pretty remarkable when one considers two of the athletes had already run prelims earlier in the day.  The Ducks also picked up a potential point when UW's Sam Tanner, who was projected to finish 2nd didn't even make the final.  If one looks at the whole picture, the Duck distance men are a better team under coach Thomas than they were under the Powell's, whose UW team seems to consistently underperform in the big meets. 

 

One can easily argue that the runners the Powell's poached from the Ducks a few years ago have, for the most part, been less successful in Seattle than they were in Eugene.  In fact, the UW men have zero athletes left on the men's side who can score, so their final score is ZERO.  Heartbreaking, isn't it?

 

So while the Ducks are positioned to lose 2 points, LSU has already gained 2 and are positioned to gain 2 more based on the semis.  JuVaughn Williams won the LJ with a world leading 8.45 (27'8.75") and won the HJ with a 2.31 (7'6.5"), which ranks 5th in the world this year.  FWIW, that LJ mark would have won the 2019 World's Championships!  The race for athlete of the meet is over.

 

Fear not, Duck fans; the Ducks are still projected to score 67 points to LSU's 52.  The women will compete later this afternoon (5pm PT, ESPN3) with five individual women competing along with a DMR team which is projected to finish 2nd.

[Charles Fischer]

35 minutes ago, Bruce3404 said:

Fear not, Duck fans; the Ducks are still projected to score 67 points to LSU's 52. 

 

Oh baby....this is precisely what I hoped you would do Bruce and THANKS!  It would be so cool to win one again...

 

35 minutes ago, Bruce3404 said:

the Duck distance men are a better team under coach Thomas than they were under the Powell's, whose UW team seems to consistently underperform in the big meets. 

 

We have so much fun dumping on the Huskies in Football and Basketball--to see it in Track & Field as well is just too funny!

 

[Bruce3404]

Well, yet another Duck National Championship.  Not only did the men win, but they overperformed the projections by 8 points and scored the second most points ever in a men's indoor championship with a total of 79.  The stars were truly shining today.  Soph Cole Hocker won both the mile and 3000 (upsetting teammate Cooper Teare who finished second).  Remarkable performance considering he ran a mile semi, a mile final and the 3000 in a 25 hour span.  This is Edward Cheserek kind of talent! 

 

Perhaps the biggest surprise was Emmanuel Ihemeje in the men's triple jump.  Seeded a distant 5th, he won it all and got the additional gift of making the Olympic standard.  As an Italian citizen, he's one Duck we will definitely see in the Olympics and his leap was 3rd best IN THE WORLD this year and would have gotten him 6th place in the last World's Championships.  Did I mention that he's only a freshman?  This must have been especially rewarding for coach Robert Johnson who was a triple jumper in college and despite all of Johnson's successes, this was the first time one of his TJers won a national title.

 

Special mention to Reed Brown, who ran a mile semi yesterday, a gutty opening leg on yesterday's DMR and finished 5th in today's mile.  Again, that's a lot of work in 24 hours and while he won't get headlines in the paper tomorrow, he's the sort of hard worker that all championship teams need.

 

Meanwhile, another freshman, Micah Williams set a PB and won the 60 in 6.49, the third fastest time in the world this year and the kid is only 19!  Oh yeah, he also carries a 4.0 GPA and he's an Oregon kid as Charles mentioned.  Gaston Bouchereau, who wasn't projected to even make the final added another 4 points for the Ducks while finishing 5th.  The Aussie Charlie Hunter was also a National Champ in the 800, running a brilliantly thought out race and winning by only .02 seconds.

 

Huge props to Coach Johnson and distance coach Ben Thomas, who engineered the winning DMR race perfectly and juggled around his superstars to allow them to contribute the maximum points in the individual events.  I do not think they could have been coached any better and there's a reason he was named the national assistant Coach of the Year last year and should repeat this year.  If you're listening, Uncle Phil, we need to keep this guy around, much like Coach Johnson was kept in town during the Vin Lananna era.