Realignment Seems to be Growing on the Duck Faithful

[1Funduck]

Before we get our Duck feathers all ruffled, I'm saying 'growing' not conformed. 

 

It sure looks like fans are starting to talk of realignment with a potential splintered PAC-12 conference. I for one have been on the verge of v'urping each time I think of Oregon going to the B1G. But, I have been putting my Mallard Shades down and looking at this through a more objective lens. For this argument, I'm not going to take sides. Simply put, Oregon going to the B1G makes enormous sense financially. Not only would Oregon get a payday at near double in quick succession, but they would fill the seats at MKA and Autzen and for a premium dollar.

 

Oregon Ohio Stat every 4 years for football and at least every other year for BBall would fill the seats and then some. Premium pricing? Yep. Just think of the 'Pod'. Oregon would play UW, UCLA, USC, every year. That leaves 4 other conference games. Every 3-4 years you would play Ohio St., Michigan, Penn St, Wisconsin, and the like. You could schedule one of the top tier teams each year and 3 from the lower tiers. Always having a Marquis game would fill the stadium. I guess it all comes down to how many conference games the B1G wants each year. 9? Then its play the 'Pod' and 6 other conference opponents. That would most Likely lock in 2 top caliber opponents outside of the 'Pod'. 

 

Now, tell me, how much attention, and money, would a home game with Michigan garner? tOSU? PSU? Now think of Bball. It's just reality IMO, that seats would jump in price and Autzen would be sold out. MKA would have sold out games as well. And, you better believe ticket prices will have an extra 'Value' added component with all these storied programs playing in the same conference.

 

$60-$70 million for an entry to the B1G isn't the half of it. Ticket sales along with merchandise sales will elevate sizably as well. It could be an additional $50-$60 million overall. $40-$50 million for the conference paycheck and another $10- $20 million overall for everything else? Sure, there isadded co, but its not that much to stop that truck from filling the Coffers....and the seats.

[Jon Joseph]

A payday near double? Therein lies the rub.

 

If the B1G comes with an offer for the NW schools it will be a significantly less amount than Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, SC and UCLA will be bringing in.

 

What is the number that would convince the NW schools to be junior members in The B1G? I think $50M would be a no-brainer but I can't say the same for $40M or so. 

 

And I do not think any offer will be made before Fox, which is driving the B1G expansion bus, and the NW schools, know the details of the new Pac-10 media deal.

 

It may be a necessary move but propping up SC and UCLA would stink.

[anyotherduck]

I don't think the PAC has what it takes to survive. After watching the conference flail at the mercy of LS for years, only to end up with the "barely" functioning GK, I really don't know what else can be said. Sad, but the current state of affairs shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

 

While I'm no fan of USC and UCLA, they did what was best for USC and UCLA. With these two gone the media value of the PAC is... whatever OR and WA will bring.

 

Who knows what might happen, but I think the "rumor-mongers" have more credibility than GK or the presidents.

[Charles Fischer]

You make great points, and I am resigned to it eventually, but it will be easier to make the Playoffs in the Pac-12....and that extra money and exposure might just make up for the loss of the B1G revenue.

 

It may not work out as planned...

[1Funduck]

$50 million would be a double from old contract. It's also sounding like the $40 million minimum is losing steam for a new contract. But, if we get 35 million then we have to look at how the stadium gets filled as well. Raising ticket prices will be difficult against ASU. But Sparty? Bucky, and the Ole Nittany Lion? Who wouldn't drop some coin to watch that every other year?

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/15/2023 at 3:59 PM, anyotherduck said:

I don't think the PAC has what it takes to survive. After watching the conference flail at the mercy of LS for years, only to end up with the "barely" functioning GK, I really don't know what else can be said. Sad, but the current state of affairs shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

 

While I'm no fan of USC and UCLA, they did what was best for USC and UCLA. With these two gone the media value of the PAC is... whatever OR and WA will bring.

 

Who knows what might happen, but I think the "rumor-mongers" have more credibility than GK or the presidents.

Good call but the NW schools going to the B1G will not top to bottom see an improvement in LOS play.

 

Oregon has a better group of OL guys than most of the teams in the B1G.

 

Recall that at the close of 2022, the Pac-12 had 6 teams ranked and the B1G had 3 ranked. 

 

Penn State did decisively beat the Utes in the Rose Bowl, tOSU played a great game against Georgia but Michigan was upset by a big underdog and subsequently blown out by UGA. 

 

LSU put up 60+ points on B1G West champ Purdue. Wazzu won in Madison.

 

I think the B1G is as overrated in football as it is in basketball. A way top-heavy conference.

[anyotherduck]

On 5/15/2023 at 1:09 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Good call but the NW schools going to the B1G will not top to bottom see an improvement in LOS play.

 

Oregon has a better group of OL guys than most of the teams in the B1G.

 

Recall that at the close of 2022, the Pac-12 had 6 teams ranked and the B1G had 3 ranked. 

 

Penn State did decisively beat the Utes in the Rose Bowl, tOSU played a great game against Georgia but Michigan was upset by a big underdog and subsequently blown out by UGA. 

 

LSU put up 60+ points on B1G West champ Purdue. Wazzu won in Madison.

 

I think the B1G is as overrated in football as it is in basketball. A way top-heavy conference.

All true. However, dropping a sneaker game to ASU UA or WSU is a national embarrassment, while losing to a Purdue or Wisconsin not so much. The B1G is overrated, but the $$ and favorable media coverage are the real vectors. 

 

I'd much prefer the PAC figure it out, but with no-one capable of stepping up and getting something done... we are where we are.

[noDucknewby]

By my calendar today is May 15.  The new B1G commsioner starts his job July 1.  Our new University President from the B1G is already on the job.  There are no apparent positive developments in the P12 TV deal.  That doesn't mean they're not on the horizon, but we've been hearing that a deal is close for most of a year now and still nothing definitive has surfaced.

 

IMHO July 1 is a critical date.  If we're still having these conversations then, my $ is on someone bailing and the conference imploding.

 

Personally I hope the conference survives this round and the LA schools get stuck with horrible travel schedules, but that may just be wishful thinking.  I just don't see any positve movement in the TV deal going forward, hope I'm wrong though.

[1Funduck]

From a different thread as it better applies here......

 

 

   .... I would add, the B1G is quickly strengthening their top tier teams. Of course its UGA and Alabama and everyone else in the SEC. I'm going out on a limb here and say that the SEC is NOT head and shoulders above the B1G. tOSU gave UGA all they could handle 4 months ago. Michigan? They beat tOSU. One could argue that putting the top 6 teams from both the SEC and B1G would be an equal matchup.

 

Who's #3 and 4 from both conferences? PSU and Pur-don't' against who? LSU or UT? Illinois was a surprise last year. I would put that defense against the middling teams of the SEC. They held UM to like 17 points. 

 

No, I don't think the SEC is as good as everyone thinks they are. Its the top 3 of UT, UGA and Alabama. All other schools are storied but fair to middling.

 

I would add that USC is coming like a freight train. The top 4 teams in the B1G are definitely better than the SEC. And if Oregon comes to the B1G, well the top 5 teams would have a better record than the top 5 SEC teams hands down. Oregon is not going away with DL on the sidelines. We are about to start the Diesel.

[mrspenney]

Will this happen, probably sometime in the future 8 to 10 years from now when college football is down to 2 super conferences.  Will the Pac 12 expand yes by at least 2 teams to begin with.  Is Oregon staying put bad for the program, somewhat, but we have a donor who is bound and determined that we are going to win a national championship in football and will do what it takes to make that happen.  We will see some creative things happen over the next few years, some that have not even been mentioned yet.  I can see a possible major relationship with the ACC on the horizon (who has a similar problem)

 

The NIL issue as well as the transfer problem hopefully will be addressed, but if there is not a satisfactory answer to these issues then only the programs with solid financial backing will exist.  You can talk all you want about Big10's TV money, but it's the NIL money in the long run.

 

For the future the Ducks will be fine, and we will have to get used to a conference that will be dominated by Oregon, Washington and Utah.

[1Funduck]

MrsPenny, I would respectfully disagree with you. NIL and Conference contracts are two separate things. Schools don't get paid from NIL. Their cash source is dictated by TV. 

 

Buddying up with the ACC has a major problem. The problem is a contract that is 13 years from dissolving. The Mouse isn't going to let that go without getting his ears tickled. With that said, I see it difficult to find a path to an alliance with the ACC. 

 

Uncle Phil has been vocal about Oregon going to the B1G. He wants it! 

 

I believe, if we don't have a media deal in 2 months, that Oregon and Wahington are gone.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/15/2023 at 7:49 PM, mrspenney said:

Will this happen, probably sometime in the future 8 to 10 years from now when college football is down to 2 super conferences.  Will the Pac 12 expand yes by at least 2 teams to begin with.  Is Oregon staying put bad for the program, somewhat, but we have a donor who is bound and determined that we are going to win a national championship in football and will do what it takes to make that happen.  We will see some creative things happen over the next few years, some that have not even been mentioned yet.  I can see a possible major relationship with the ACC on the horizon (who has a similar problem)

 

The NIL issue as well as the transfer problem hopefully will be addressed, but if there is not a satisfactory answer to these issues then only the programs with solid financial backing will exist.  You can talk all you want about Big10's TV money, but it's the NIL money in the long run.

 

For the future the Ducks will be fine, and we will have to get used to a conference that will be dominated by Oregon, Washington and Utah.

There is nothing wrong with NIL as intended. There is something wrong with using NIL to recruit players out of high school and from the portal. The NCAA is a neutered tiger and is not going to after programs that misuse NIL. Not going after schools that poach players. 

 

The NFL collectively bargains with its union but does nothing to rein in its players making all they can from NIL.

 

I do not think the ACC will stay as currently structured for more than 5 years if that. A football and basketball challenge with the ACC would be fun but the distance is too great to merge with one or more ACC teams. And the ACC media deal stinks. 

 

Terrific take on the future of CFB.

 

I agree with you in part but the $70M or so each B1G and SEC team will receive in media revenue year after year will have an impact. Especially when it comes to taking successful coaches away from the ACC, B12, and Pac-10.

 

We have a Power 2 now and I expect and I agree that both the B1G and the SEC will add teams to form a combined super league. 

 

Oregon is fortunate to have Division Street. A professionally run and managed entity.