More Rumor-Mongering By Dennis Dodd, or Real Smoke to Some Fire?

[Charles Fischer]

This goes back a few days, but two thoughts come to mind; 1) he is dedicated to the destruction of our conference, and 2) I admit that when there is so much smoke....sometimes there is fire behind it?

 

If the worst occurs, that makes the media deal we are waiting on and SDST addition moot.  But would the Buffalos really leave before seeing the Pac-12 offer?

 

'Colorado has been in "substantive" talks with the Big 12 about possibly joining the growing league, a source with knowledge of the discussions tells CBS Sports.'  

 

Colorado holds 'substantive' talks with Big 12 as Buffaloes consider leaving Pac-12 - CBSSports.com

WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

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CU continues to weigh its Pac-12 future with an opportunity rejoin its former league

 

[Jon Joseph]

Same Stuff Dennis Dodd.

 

How low can you go?

[Steven A]

Could Prime (the coach, not the network) be behind some of this?

 

Although, hard to think he could keep his mouth shut if he was.

 

But with what CU has invested in him, he has to be in on it in some way IF there is some fire.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/3/2023 at 1:19 PM, Steven A said:

Could Prime (the coach, not the network) be behind some of this?

 

Although, hard to think he could keep his mouth shut if he was.

 

But with what CU has invested in him, he has to be in on it in some way IF there is some fire.

I don't think Prime or any HC has much of a say in this and I do not see CU or any Pac team getting a recruiting bump from moving to the B12.

 

Again, where is the $ coming from to finance the move of one let alone 4 schools that are now in the P5?

 

The B12's new media deal has 6 years to run. 4 x $31.6M = $126.4M x 6 = $758.4M. Are advertisers lining up to pay a 10% + premium above $758M?

 

I don't see ESPN/Fox coming with this kind of money for B12 expansion when they are already paying for the 3 G5 added teams and BYU. 

 

Fox and its junior broadcast partners CBS and NBC have the LA market tied down. ESPN is not flush with cash and has announced that it is moving to stream athletic events.

 

ESPN needs late west coast broadcast times, and the MW does not provide the eyeballs. 

[mrspenney]

This Dennis Dodd is a sack of you know what.  Hardly ever does he write a decent truthful article.  If the conference were to split up if would happen after a new media contract has been proposed and is considered unsatisfactory.  

[spartan2785]

I mean it wouldn't surprised me if it was happening, but I'm also not holding my breath.  I'm at the point where I just don't really care about reports like this from any source since so many journalists have been wrong in their coverage, in the end it will work itself out, I'm just exhausted worrying about the future, and whatever happens happens.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/3/2023 at 3:03 PM, spartan2785 said:

I mean it wouldn't surprised me if it was happening, but I'm also not holding my breath.  I'm at the point where I just don't really care about reports like this from any source since so many journalists have been wrong in their coverage, in the end it will work itself out, I'm just exhausted worrying about the future, and whatever happens happens.

Every Pac-10 school is doing due diligence on a new landing place if the media deal is a washout. Simply good business.

 

I continue to believe that the new Pac deal will come close to or exceed the B12 deal.

[Charles Fischer]

Written by John Canzano today...

 

Q: John, whats up with the Pac-12? All these darn rumors, talk, etc. It’s time to do a deal. It’s past time. Are schools like Oregon, Washington holding this up in hope of a Big Ten invite? It’s past time to make the TV stuff known. — @realwebtraveler 

 

A: I am told by reliable sources that Oregon and Washington are not holding the deal up. They’re both committed to the Pac-12. In part, because they have nowhere to go. But also because the Ducks and Huskies are both well positioned for regular access to the College Football Playoff in this 10-team Pac-12.

 

'I’m weary with the fear-mongering rumors and doom-and-gloom crowd, too. I mean, imagine a mailbag that didn’t include a bunch of questions from readers who are fed up with the uncertainty. One well-placed source told me this week: “Everyone is together and aligned and wants to be with the Pac-12. Of course everyone needs to see the deals before signing on for good. That’s obvious.”
 

There are 13 months remaining on the Pac-12’s current media deal. The Big Ten announced its new media deal with 11 months remaining on the old contract. That’s relevant context.
 

[David Marsh]

On the football front I don't think Colorado has much hope on the PAC in terms of meeting some of their desired goals. 

 

Right now we talk about how Oregon is going to be just fine regardless. Oregon in a weak PAC will have access to the playoff. But I can't see really any other teams than the top team in the PAC getting in on a regular basis, there will be too much big league bias. 

 

The big -12 is really now a G5+.conference. BYU, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are their big brands. Those are still smaller than Oregon, Washington and Utah (though Utah is probably on par with BYU).

 

I think even San Diego will be more valuable in the long haul. 

 

Colorado holds a good media market but they have had one good season upon entering the PAC. I think some of the calculus with the big-12 is they may become a bigger fish in a potentially less talented pond. Though they'd never say that.

 

But if Colorado leaves will the PAC survive? Thats a bigger question. 

[Jon Joseph]

Good take but I think TCU being the only B12 team to make the playoff other than OK and the only B12 school to win a playoff game is at the top of the B12 ladder.

 

And the Dallas market is far bigger than Provo/SLC, Stillwater/OK City, and Lubbock. Although the LDS brings BYU a national following of sorts.

 

I don't see CU going back to the B12 being any better off than in the Pac and the Pac has better academic bona fides for AAU member CU. This matters to the folks in Boulder.

 

Interesting that ASU recently became an AAU member. 8 of the Pac-10 schools are now AAU member institutions.

[David Marsh]

On 6/3/2023 at 6:29 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Good take but I think TCU being the only B12 team to make the playoff other than OK and the only B12 school to win a playoff game is at the top of the B12 ladder.

TCU has an incredibly small student body last I checked. So yeah they have probably been one of the more successful programs in the Big-12 but they don't have the same following as the big brands do. They certainly have a regional following but their foot print is nothing compared to what the Big-12 lost in Texas and Oklahoma.

 

To me it does feel like the Big-12 is parading around claiming to be bigger than they actually are. For all hurt the loss of the LA market is the Pac does have a bigger market footprint than the Big-12. However, when media companies would much rather watch the conference break apart than pay it what it's due that doesn't seem to matter.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/4/2023 at 12:02 AM, David Marsh said:

TCU has an incredibly small student body last I checked. So yeah they have probably been one of the more successful programs in the Big-12 but they don't have the same following as the big brands do. They certainly have a regional following but their foot print is nothing compared to what the Big-12 lost in Texas and Oklahoma.

 

To me it does feel like the Big-12 is parading around claiming to be bigger than they actually are. For all hurt the loss of the LA market is the Pac does have a bigger market footprint than the Big-12. However, when media companies would much rather watch the conference break apart than pay it what it's due that doesn't seem to matter.

David, I give credit to Sonny Dykes for taking TCU, when it didn't win its own conference title, to the playoffs and defeating a heavily favored Michigan before facing Bull Dawg reality. Something Puddles had to deal with in the opening game.

 

Overall, I could not agree more with your thoughts. The B12 is a G5 and a half-conference,  In the battle for the bronze the Pac-12 will hopefully come up with a media deal better than that of the B12 and then will be smart and platy chessboard realignment defense.

 

Keep the B12 out of the Pacific time zone. How can this be accomplished? Add SDSU, Fresno, and UNLV (all in the Pacific time zone) and plant the flag in B12 country by adding, at least, SMU. 

 

All 4 of these schools, 3 in the MW and SMU in the AAC, can be picked up at a bargain compared to what P5 conferences, even the ACC, are receiving in media money.

 

The B12 could be further thwarted by adding AAC member and defending champion, Tulane and perhaps, AAC member Rice.

 

Frankly, George, I don't give a damn about academics. Yes, with the addition of ASU as a member, 8 out of 10 Pac schools are AAU member institutions.  But two of our member schools are not and Tulane, SMU, and Rice fit the bill academically with the other three, especially SDSU, bringing in good-sized markets.

 

It's time to begin running the Pac like a business and not an Elite Club with tottering members and cobwebs in the corner.

 

I want to take this opportunity to again thank you for the terrific articles and comments.

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[Dave23]

On 6/3/2023 at 6:12 PM, David Marsh said:

 

I think even San Diego will be more valuable in the long haul. 

They're definitely better in a lot of sports than Colorado is. Football's definitely better, basketball way better and baseball doing pretty good. Not sure about the other sports but the first 2 is all that matters to the media.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Dave23
Spelling

[NJDuck]

 

Not sure if anyone read the article that was posted from Wilner.  To me writers closer to the conference for accurate news would be Wilner, Canzano and Michele Bodkin.  I believe they would break out accurate news as they hear and confirm it first before other news outlets.

 

This is my opinion, but usually national news outlets would reverberate news from local and regional news sources.  This tells me a lot of national information about the Pac-12 media rights and doomsday approach on the survival of the Pac-12 is pure hearsay.

 

Every President/CEO/AD in the Pac-12 are doing their due diligence for their universities to make the right choices moving forward.  They are not doing their job if they aren't.

 

I can't see Colorado moving to the Big 12 without seeing what the Pac-12 is going to offer in media rights deal.

 

Wilner talks about a wide range of pertinent information worth reading.  He touches on Colorado, Arizona and ASU.  He touches on media value for the Pac-12 vs Big 12.  He touches on Streaming and more.

 

I know this is just my opinion, but I read a lot of information that is out there.  Yes, there is a lot of smoke and mirrors going on that has no value in what they are writing.

 

Here are some excerpts from Wilner's article:

 

The Pac-12’s agreement with ESPN and Fox averages $20.8 million while the Big 12’s deal with ESPN and Fox averages $22 million — a difference of 5.5 percent.

 

Yes, Texas and Oklahoma were worth more to the Big 12 than USC and UCLA were worth to the Pac-12, but the Big 12 also added schools that expanded its footprint and improved its market reach.

 

So we are probably back where we started, with the leagues having similar valuations.

 

Shouldn’t Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff come out and say something at this point? Even if it’s not great news? His complete silence and hiding are making him look like an ineffective leader. — @troyboy8ball

 

This has been an ongoing topic of debate inside and outside the conference for months.

 

Kliavkoff undoubtedly views radio silence as the approach that best serves his bosses (the presidents) and his negotiating partners.

 

But the absence of messaging from the person leading the negotiations, combined with the length of time required for resolution, created a vacuum filled by rumor, speculation and destabilization efforts.

 

Could those rumors prompt the Pac-12 presidents to lose faith in the process and, consequently, Kliavkoff’s leadership?

 

We’ll have an answer when the saga concludes.

 

Will conferences look at jettisoning poor performing schools besides adding schools? Nebraska has sucked since joining the Big Ten, and Vanderbilt has been a non-factor in the SEC for years. — @A_C_Taylor

 

I am not aware of any major conference booting a member for poor performance, and there’s no reason to expect the expulsion process to begin soon, anywhere.

 

That said, college football will look much different in 10 or 20 years. We could very well see the Power Five broken into tiers, with 30-35 heavyweights participating in a Saturday version of the NFL.

 

Why? Because subsidization lies at the heart of college sports:

— The elite football programs subsidize the rest of the Power Five.

— The Power Five subsidizes the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision.

— The Football Bowl Subdivision subsidizes the rest of Division I.

— Division I subsidizes the other NCAA divisions.

 

The NCAA has more than 1,000 members, but only 15-20 provide the rocket fuel. That’s one of the reasons — perhaps the essential reason — why the college sports world is so screwed up.

 

Are the Big Ten and NBC colluding by having games like Washington-Michigan State on a streaming-only platform (Peacock) to further devalue the Huskies and Oregon? They could then point to the streaming numbers of this game as evidence to justify offering them a smaller share down the road? — @Al_Avina

 

That is one heck of a conspiracy theory, but I have zero reason to believe it carries any validity.

 

NBC wants to push viewers to Peacock through its agreement with the Big Ten and is using big games and brand names to achieve the goal.

 

It’s not placing the Huskies on Peacock to devalue their revenue share for possible Big Ten membership years down the road.

 

And we should note that games involving Michigan and Penn State will be shown exclusively on Peacock in the early weeks of the season.

 

This is the future, folks. Once ESPN moves to streaming in a few years, the rate of acceptance will accelerate.

 

If the Pac-12 signs a less-than-optimal media deal, would it likely be announced on a Friday, weekend, or holiday? (Or some kind of inverse if it’s good news?) Would there otherwise be anything to read into the timing of a news release? — Alex Fox

 

If I understand the question correctly, you’re wondering if the conference would go public Monday through Thursday with a deal worth more than the Big 12’s agreement but on Friday (or the weekend) if the deal is worth less.

 

I cannot imagine a scenario in which the valuation frames the timing of an announcement.

 

The conference has avoided major leaks thus far, in part because of Kliavkoff’s extremely tight circle of advisers and confidantes. But when (if) a deal is finalized, the news is more likely to become public through leaks to anonymous sources in the media than through a formal announcement by the Pac-12.

 

And those leaks could very well originate with one of the media companies involved, not someone affiliated with the Pac-12.

 

Any truth to this statement: “Colorado has been in ‘substantive’ talks with the Big 12 about possibly joining the growing league, a source with knowledge of the discussions tells CBS Sports.” — @BruinStrmShadow

 

I won’t comment on any specific media report rooted in anonymous sources and subjective descriptions of events. (For example, how do you define “substantive”?)

 

But generally speaking, the Hotline has assumed all along that Colorado, Utah and the Arizona schools were engaged, to varying degrees, in membership discussions with Big 12 representatives.

 

Given the length of time required for the Pac-12’s media negotiations, the schools must perform due diligence. They owe it to their athletes and fans to have a suitable landing spot.

 

Also, it’s realignment. Everybody is talking to everybody.

 

I have read quotes from numerous Pac-12 leaders that have said their order of business is to 1) finalize the media rights deal, 2) get the grant-of-rights signed, then 3) focus on expansion.

 

Practically speaking, don’t they have No. 1 and 3 backwards? Wouldn’t the Pac-12’s media partners want to know exactly what they are getting and paying for? — Wayne Niebroski

 

They would, for sure.

 

Understandably, this issue has confounded fans over the months-long process. Yes, the media partners would want some sense of the membership structure given the role brand value, media markets and game inventory have on valuation.

 

As a result, triggers could be baked into the agreement: The Pac-12 would receive X dollars as a 10-school league and Y dollars if larger.

 

Look at the issues as three airplanes that must prepare for arrival at the same time but with a single runway available. Kliavkoff would agree to a media rights deal, present it to the presidents for approval (the grant-of-rights piece), then call a formal vote on expansion.

 

The conference won’t announce a media deal unless the grant-of-rights deal has been signed, but it could take a few days for the formal expansion announcement given the legal documents involved.

 

At least, that’s how we envision the process unfolding.

 

I apologize if this is too long, but wanted to bring out some points.  I love my Ducks!  Go Ducks, Fly High!

 

Wilner Mailbag: Keys to Pac-12 survival (the Arizona schools), Colorado’s role, a UW conspiracy theory, Kliavkoff’s silence and more

SPORTS360AZ.COM

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<p>The Hotline mailbag is published every week. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. Some...

 

[David Marsh]

On 6/4/2023 at 11:34 AM, NJDuck said:

Kliavkoff undoubtedly views radio silence as the approach that best serves his bosses (the presidents) and his negotiating partners.

 

But the absence of messaging from the person leading the negotiations, combined with the length of time required for resolution, created a vacuum filled by rumor, speculation and destabilization efforts.

I'm not sure entering into the public arena helps anyone but gives the fans something to dissect and speculate on. 

 

I do feel there are things being told to various media outlets to create rumor and speculation to try and undermine and disrupt the process. 

 

The big-12 wants to see the PAC die. Fox and ESPN wouldn't mind seeing it die because that could bolster their own pet conferences. 

 

So what does George K gain by coming out and saying anything other than... "We are working on it and we are making progress" with the assumption they are making progress.