'New Entrants' to Pac-12 Media Deal per Canzano

[Charles Fischer]

My Duck-Buddies--this is sounding better-and-better!

 

Canzano wrote that 'a conference source,' told him that the negotiations have been “advanced and productive” and a deal is in “the near future."

 

“We’ve had very productive negotiations,” the source told John. “New entrants have come in. We’re feeling good and our schools will be rewarded for their patience.”

 

One thing is evident: The Pac-12 is seeing numbers it likes, has some new partners at the table, and believes a deal is near. “All the schools are together,” the source said.

 

With a new deal signed that is superior

to the Big-12, and the Pac-12 becomes the

first conference to have a large presence

on streaming, we will all be pleased....

[Charles Fischer]

Speculation on who the new partners are?

 

[Jon Joseph]

CW, rumored to be in the mix in the past has concluded a broadcast deal with the ACC. Could CW be one of the new players?

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

I think this is another example of some people looking for the negative, "no announcement-again this week."  While I think the information above is pretty uplifting!  

 

But there will always be....

[HappyToBeADuck]

Well it just depends on whether you view things with your cup half full or your cup half empty.

 

Rushing a complex agreement usually leads to someone being disappointed. The more parties entering the mix, the more complex.

 

Being patient as this unfolds seems prudent. The longer this takes may mean the better the deal.

 

This is very complex and uncharted territory. Consider that the NFL told Amazon, you pay this much money and you get 1 game a week on Thursday nights. Amazon did not get the entire NFL to cover.

 

The Tier 1 rights holder has the entire conference to cover. Arizona subscribers will want to see their schools covered. Ducks fans want to see every Oregon game as a subscriber. Just an example of items that need to be worked out.

 

You know, the G5 Big 12 panicked and for no increase in money. Just 3 more years under contract.

 

Hats off to GK and the schools for not panicking. Sticking together and being patient. The pay day may not be SEC/BIG money. 

 

As long as it beats the G5 Big 12 then that works......

[David Marsh]

On 7/18/2023 at 9:21 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

You know, the G5 Big 12 panicked and for no increase in money. Just 3 more years under contract.

You can actually make an argument that it was for less money. Sure the payout per school is about the same as it is now EXCEPT the Big-12 added a net of +2 schools to the conference. They lost their two big money makers and to make up the difference they went quantity to try and create additional content and, though they will resent this comment, filler programing. Cincinnati v UCF probably won't be a bad game to watch, but it isn't going to draw anywhere near the eyeballs that Oklahoma or Texas v anyone (let alone the Red River Shootout itself).

 

Will some of those programs grow and develop fanbases? Yes, of course they will but let's get real here. Cincinnati will always be in Ohio State's shadow and there is nothing that will ever change that. UCF has had a run of success in the G5 level of play but they are never going to break into Florida's top programs of Florida, Florida State and Miami. Same goes for Houston in Texas.

 

BYU also has a ceiling as it is a private school. BYU probably helped move the needle a bit for the Big-12 but BYU's fan base probably isn't going to grow leaps and bounds from what it is now and it is a far cry from what the Big-12 lost in Texas and Oklahoma.

 

They are a band-aid for what they lost.

 

Now, I'm also under no illusions that if the Pac-12 does add SMU and SDSU that that is also a band aid because those programs won't make up for what was lost with the LA Schools. Though I do feel SDSU could probably grow a fan base better than the rest of the schools listed. They are not in LA but southern California and San Diego is a market that college football could really grow into. SMU has a good donor fan-base that will ensure they grow though I don't expect them to ever be as big of a brand as Texas or Texas A&M in the Texas market.

[BYUTexan]

I live in the Dallas area and pretty much nobody follows SMU here.  That death penalty in the 80s really did a number on their program.

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:18 AM, BYUTexan said:

I live in the Dallas area and pretty much nobody follows SMU here.  That death penalty in the 80s really did a number on their program.

Not just Dallas where the size of a media market is more important than a team's brand.

 

The B12 newbies average football game viewers in 2022: 

 

38. BYU - 997K - BYU with the LDS affiliation has a national audience. Not of course, on the level of Notre Dame which ranks 6. with 3.3M viewers a game but only behind Pac-10 teams 12. Oregon - 2.21M, Utah - 1.16M, 34. UW - 1.15M. WA St is close at 41. and 907K. 

 

55. Cincinnati - 653K - Cincinnati is approximately the same market size as Columbus. Ohio State is #1 with an average of 5.8M viewers. 

 

61. UCF - 510K - Not that far behind 59. Miami - 608K and the Orlando market is now larger than the Miami market. With the B12 membership, I expect UCF to close the gap with Miami. 

 

78. Houston - 242K. Houston, like SMU in Dallas, does not punch its weight in the Houston media market. 

 

Potential Pac-10 add-ons - 71. SMU - 312K,  85 - San Diego State - 198K

 

Brands trump market size all across the country. 

 

 

[BYUTexan]

On 7/19/2023 at 1:01 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Not just Dallas where the size of a media market is more important than a team's brand.

 

The B12 newbies average football game viewers in 2022: 

 

38. BYU - 997K - BYU with the LDS affiliation has a national audience. Not of course, on the level of Notre Dame which ranks 6. with 3.3M viewers a game but only behind Pac-10 teams 12. Oregon - 2.21M, Utah - 1.16M, 34. UW - 1.15M. WA St is close at 41. and 907K. 

 

55. Cincinnati - 653K - Cincinnati is approximately the same market size as Columbus. Ohio State is #1 with an average of 5.8M viewers. 

 

61. UCF - 510K - Not that far behind 59. Miami - 608K and the Orlando market is now larger than the Miami market. With the B12 membership, I expect UCF to close the gap with Miami. 

 

78. Houston - 242K. Houston, like SMU in Dallas, does not punch its weight in the Houston media market. 

 

Potential Pac-10 add-ons - 71. SMU - 312K,  85 - San Diego State - 198K

 

Brands trump market size all across the country. 

 

 

BYU's past viewing ranks were only due to those games with G5's that dragged our numbers down.  When we played P5's, our numbers were much higher.  For example our late night game vs Baylor was the highest in that time slot since 2016 at 2.2mm.

Edited July 19, 2023 by BYUTexan

[Jon Joseph]

FWIW, this is from Athlon Sports quoting ESPN's Heather Dinich. This appears to be good news, no news.

 

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/pac-12-media-rights-deal-reportedly-set-to-be-on-par-with-acc-and-big-12

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/19/2023 at 2:07 PM, BYUTexan said:

BYU's past viewing ranks were only due to those games with G5's that dragged our numbers down.  When we played P5's, our numbers were much higher.  For example our late night game vs Baylor was the highest in that time slot since 2016 at 2.2mm.

Good point and good facts but every Pac team can say the same for every game broadcast on the Pac-12 Network. I do expect that BYU moving up to the P5 officially will draw more eyeballs.

[HappyToBeADuck]

SMU and Houston playing at G5 level is not the big leagues. That perception will change as they move to P5 and are more visible on a national level.

 

When they become competitive at the P5 level, Texans will watch....

 

Texans will watch SMU/Utah, SMU/uw or SMU/Oregon. Or Houston/Baylor, Houston/TCU etc.

Especially if they become competitive.

 

You just cant compare G5 interest to P5 viewing numbers. When the streamer/linear advertises SMU/Oregon it will be on a national level. Todays picture or our view today of a G5 School  wont be relevant tomorrow when they are P5.

 

For any G5 - Big 12, Texas and Texas cash machine fans, consider as P5  members SMU, Houston etc, will be competing for 4☆ and 5☆ Texas talent that wouldnt even give them a look see as a G5 member. But will be giving them a look as a P5 member. The Longhorns and Aggies dont get them all now, they will get less going forward.

 

TCU, Baylor, TT, and OSU will lose some too as SMU and Houston recruit at a P5 level.

 

Also, having $30 million plus, per year to invest will make a difference in coaches salaries and recruiting.

 

Change is coming.......

 

One last thought about Brands. Texas has been irrelevant since 2004. They cant even win the BIG 12, good luck moving past The Dawgs, Bama, Georgia, Florida and Tennessee. Only 3 of those schools will be off to the CFP. A&M? Have they won an SEC title and made it to the CFP since joining the SEC?

 

Brands need to win in this day and age to matter. Oregon was not a brand in 1994-95. With PK and others investing in facilities, coaches salaries and exposure the Ducks moved on the National scene with Joey Harrington and others. It was a slow build.

 

Then the Ducks struck lightning in a bottle with Chip and by 2010 the Ducks were must watch TV and they became a BRAND......

 

Utah, was not a brand 11 years ago but had a couple of undeafeated seasons and a victory over Bama at the G5 level. But with P5 money and exposure they are building a national Brand.

 

Why cant this happen to SMU, Houston or SDSU? More money to invest, market and brand with P5 money.......SMU playing in NY6 or Rose Bowls, down the road, will lift their Brand. Texans will watch.....

 

Of course the PAC may not expand, so Houston may really have this amazing opportunity at the P5 level.

 

Fun stuff. It will be fun watching Texas and or A&M playing in the Outback bowl with 9-3 or 8-4 records against a 9-3 or 8-4 Trojan squad carrying the second level of the BIG. Wait A&M didnt even make a bowl with the #1 recruiting class.

 

This is going to be fun to watch. Especially when Houston and SMU take their share of 4☆ recruits from the SEC and Big 12. And SDSU gives SoCal high level recruits the opportunity to not travel 60k to 80k miles in their total college careers.

 

GO DUCKS.....