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Mike West

Do we Honestly Have a Shot at a Playoff Berth?

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One thing I can say about Cristobal is his teams perform well in big games (win or lose, they play far better when something is on the line).

 

I felt strange the week the team traveled to Columbus.  They seemed too relaxed.  As if they hadn't played Fresno State the week before. 

 

Then they played lights out for three quarters.  

Does this team know how good they are?  Or was the Ohio State game a fluke?

 

Are they confident they could beat the Buckeyes again? 

 

Who are the 2021 Ducks? Playoff contender or flash in the pan?

 

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I cannot believe the roller-coaster this year.  I was so elated after the Ohio State victory because I thought it was a massive step forward for Coach Cristobal in managing as a CEO.

 

Now...we are all in the dumps.  To answer your question--it is dependent entirely upon the coaching from this point forward; a team that can beat Ohio State should be able to win the remaining of its games. 

 

Right?

 

(They built they own high-bar)

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Mr. FishDuck

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To answer your question, yes, as long as they run the table and other favorable things happen.

 

"Bama's loss is a blessing and a curse.  If they run the table and win the Conference, they're in.  If they run the table and beat an undefeated Georgia, they are both in.  If they run the conference table and and lose the conference CShip, they are probably out depending upon the rest of the conferences and Cinncy.

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I don't believe we do, and if I am honest, when I see the product on the field in 4 of the 5 games we have played, we are not close to the top teams. If we had continued to play like we did in Ohio, yes. But we didn't. 

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A 1 loss champion from any other of the 4 conferences is going to always go ahead of a 1 loss pac 12 champ in my opinion.   So we need to run table and big 12 and 10 need 2 losses.  I don’t see Oklahoma losing twice.  Ohio state will run the table, Bama may lose again to georgia.  But one is in for sure.

 

yes we’re going to watch a team we beat in Columbus go to playoffs even if we win out. 
 

1Georgia Or Bama

2Oklahoma

3Ohio state or Georgia or Bama 

4 Cincinnati 

 

Oregon needs massive help to go.  But I Think Chips boys put an end to playoff talk in two weeks for the Ducks. 
 

There is something very odd going on in Eugene.  I honestly doubt we could finish on top 6 of the SEC conference.  We are not nearly as close to elite as many had imagined.  You want to see elite offense look at Oklahoma with their new freshman QB.   Want elite D? Look at Georgia also a young team.  Do we honestly even compare to them?

 

What do I know?   I picked the Beavs to Run table.  😟

 

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On 10/10/2021 at 11:48 AM, Mike West said:

 

One thing I can say about Cristobal is his teams perform well in big games (win or lose, they play far better when something is on the line).

 

I felt strange the week the team traveled to Columbus.  They seemed too relaxed.  As if they hadn't played Fresno State the week before. 

 

Then they played lights out for three quarters.  

Does this team know how good they are?  Or was the Ohio State game a fluke?

 

Are they confident they could beat the Buckeyes again? 

 

Who are the 2021 Ducks? Playoff contender or flash in the pan?

 

Nothing was on the line in the Stanford game…???? Serious…????

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The way the Ducks are playing right now they will get spanked by just about anyone. Then you have the injuries.

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On 10/10/2021 at 4:34 PM, Confused said:

A 1 loss champion from any other of the 4 conferences is going to always go ahead of a 1 loss pac 12 champ in my opinion.   So we need to run table and big 12 and 10 need 2 losses.  I don’t see Oklahoma losing twice.  Ohio state will run the table, Bama may lose again to georgia.  But one is in for sure.

 

yes we’re going to watch a team we beat in Columbus go to playoffs even if we win out. 
 

1Georgia Or Bama

2Oklahoma

3Ohio state or Georgia or Bama 

4 Cincinnati 

 

Oregon needs massive help to go.  But I Think Chips boys put an end to playoff talk in two weeks for the Ducks. 
 

There is something very odd going on in Eugene.  I honestly doubt we could finish on top 6 of the SEC conference.  We are not nearly as close to elite as many had imagined.  You want to see elite offense look at Oklahoma with their new freshman QB.   Want elite D? Look at Georgia also a young team.  Do we honestly even compare to them?

 

What do I know?   I picked the Beavs to Run table.  😟

 

 

A 1L Pac-12 champion that defeated a 12-1 B1G champion on the road is certainly getting in over a 1L ACC Champ Wake Forest. 

 

A 12-1 Pac-12 champion with a head to head win over Ohio State is not necessarily going to be ranked behind a 12-1 Ohio State.

 

Cincinnati's SOS will dip as the season progresses. The W over 14 ND still looks good but the W vs Indiana does not. 12-1 Oregon would have a very good case even against a 13-0 Cincinnati.

 

Oklahoma's big OOC win came against Nebraska at home. I do not think OK goes 13-0? OK has to play in Stillwater and the OK ST D is far better than the TX D. 

 

To date in CFB we have seen 2 elite Ds. Georgia and Iowa. But if Penn State starting QB Sean Clifford isn't hurt I doubt that Iowa wins Saturday's game? Before the B1G champ game, Iowa's remaining SOS is bad. 

 

UGA has looked great. But the win over Clemson is a mirage. And UGA by SEC standards has played an easy SEC schedule to date.

 

The B1G E is going to eat a lot of its own.

 

Ducks run the table as does ASU and Oregon will play a top 15+ ranked team in the conference champ game. 

 

 

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No worries but I totally disagree with you.   This year if Oregon and Ohio state both win out.   Ohio state is in.   Way more money involved with a big ten in playoff.   Besides Ohio state will have beaten 5 top teams with their only loss early in the season to another top team.  Oregon’s loss to Stanford was a fatal blow. 

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I will give you that a 1 loss champion wake forest would be behind a 1 loss duck team.   But really?   Wake forest bring a 1 loss champ?   “Cmon Man!”

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Agree with many others here.  Basically, other conferences will need to 2-loss each other, and we need to be 11-1 and beat an 11-1 ASU.  GA loses only to a 11-1 Bama?  They will both Trump any Pac-12 team, 13-0 Cincinnati will too I think.  Oklahomie looks better each week...

 

Yes, coaching is the key here, and impressing the committee with 59-0 wins over teams like Cal are what we need, grind it out smashmouth 35-24 wins over Cal or AZ type teams won't cut it.  It's year 4...MC's team needs an offensive identity

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On 10/10/2021 at 5:12 PM, Confused said:

No worries but I totally disagree with you.   This year if Oregon and Ohio state both win out.   Ohio state is in.   Way more money involved with a big ten in playoff.   Besides Ohio state will have beaten 5 top teams with their only loss early in the season to another top team.  Oregon’s loss to Stanford was a fatal blow. 

 

Do not discount head to head results. The Stanford loss on the road is a far less injurious loss than the Bucks home loss to the Ducks.

 

Come the Committee's final vote in late November, Ohio State will not have 5 Ws against 'top teams.'

 

Believe me, come November Georgia's W over Clemson will not be considered by the Committee to be a win against the 2nd best team in the country.

 

If Oregon and Ohio State both go 12-1, both are in the final 4.

 

 

 

 

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Do we have a chance to go to the playoff? I think not. Ducks will be lucky to win the North division. I agree with Confused that UCLA will win in two weeks, and I expect another loss as well. Most fans seem to think that Cal is a sure win but it could be a game where it all comes together for them and they romp. As we've seen, any Pac12 team can win on any given weekend.

 

IMO, the whole rankings/playoff picture was skewed before the season with writers and pundits and conference level hopes, so Oregon was placed in a higher ranking than I think was justified merely to keep a door open for a Pac12 playoff berth. They said the Pac12 ‘needed’ to show up in the playoffs this year and so they chose Oregon to hang their lofty expectations upon. Does anyone really believe Ducks were top five material to start the season?

 

A loss is monumental and in some ways, we’re right back to the old system of rankings where the favorites get voted to the top spots based on favoritism, W/L record, and TV ratings. Larry Scott being mostly AOL didn’t help either.

 

We REALLY need a larger playoff group but I fear that ultimately will lead nowhere for the Pac12. The SEC and some name favorites from years past, via ESPN (think money and big fan markets) and some others, will find a way to get their top share of attention. The only way for Oregon, and probably any team in the conference, is to win and win BIG so then they can’t be denied.

 

Chip had his system, but he always preached one game at a time. His teams were ready to play and their focus was disciplined enough to keep on winning. I think the current team and the head coach lack that kind of discipline.

 

Ohio State, to start the season, was trading on their reputation. The Ducks had practiced for them for weeks, and the Buckeyes didn’t look like a great team. They didn’t adjust defensively and had some kinks on offense and, I think, assumed they’d be able to win. They are a different team now, and so are the Ducks, so the comparison doesn’t mean much now, really. I agree, if it comes down to Oregon or Ohio St in the playoffs, the Buckeyes get the nod.

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Even if the coaching improves - it won't. 

Even if TT plays and is great - the coaches won't make the switch. 

Even if schemes and play calling improve - they won't.

 

There still are the injuries.  Flowe, Verdell, B. Williams -- too much to overcome. 

 

Oregon is in need of a head coaching change.  That probably won't happen for at least a few more years, at best.  

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Not this year from what I've seen so far. 

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As long as Oregon only has one loss, and as long as other teams keep getting knocked off, then there is a mathematical chance. 

 

When the math no longer works, there will be yet another painful even for us to endure.  The longer we go without a loss, the more we will get our hopes up, and the harder the crash will be.   Just ask USC fans about last season. 

 

The UCLA game will answer a lot of questions about this team. 

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Mike, we spent so much time focusing on beating the Bucks, that we emptied our gas tank, and exhausted everything in that game.  There's way too many injuries, we're too far behind in the rankings/standings, and the PAC-12 competition is getting more stiffer each game because every team has tape on us.  We need to focus on Coach Cristobal recruiting more talent, so we know the cupboard's not bare.  I'm focused on Cal.  And a NY6 Bowl game.

 

References Section:

 

2021 College Football Rankings for Week 7 | ESPN

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