NJDuck Moderator No. 1 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Also... do football coaches tell the truth? Dave Bartoo runs Matrix Analytics, a consulting firm that works with a number of college conferences and schools. As a hobby, he likes to crunch numbers on the College Football Playoff front because, as he put it, “we’re a bunch of data nerds.” Bartoo isn’t on the playoff selection committee. He hasn’t spoken with any of the 13 members of the panel. But what Bartoo does do is appear to read their minds with deft accuracy. “In the last decade, if you give me 25 teams and remove the names of the schools and just label them ‘A’ and ‘B’ and ‘C’ and ‘D… E… fricken… G…’ and if that’s all you gave us we would nail the playoff rankings every year — dead on.” There are seven variables involved in the ranking, Bartoo said. They are: championship wins, quality wins (above-.500 team), Top-25 wins, margin of victory, margin of loss, bad loss (sub-.500 team), and strength of schedule. “That’s the whole formula,” Bartoo said. “The secret is in knowing how to weigh it. For example, USC’s 48-20 loss to Notre Dame last weekend came by too many points. That margin of defeat eliminates the Trojans the same way Oregon’s 49-3 loss to Georgia in 2022 knocked the Ducks out before the season even really began.” I asked Bartoo to examine the current college football season and tell me how the selection committee would rank the teams. Not in two weeks when the initial CFP ranking comes out — but here and now. Canzano: Lies, damned lies... and the College Football Playoff WWW.JOHNCANZANO.COM Also... do football coaches tell the truth? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Log Haulin No. 2 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Flip that burger because Oregon IS going to win out and beat Fusky in Vegas. Oregon was the better team last weekend imo. And that was the perfect loss at the perfect time in the perfect place. Ducks finish a perfect 7-0 and ride into the CFP 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 3 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) The fact that analytics can predict the selection committee should not lead one to assume the process is devoid of bias. Two factors in their calculations are exposed to significant bias: top 25 teams are selected by opinion, and therefore strength of schedule and top 25 wins are a function of those opinions. I firmly believe the expanded playoff is going to be one year too late. Look at the top 12. Any of them could conceivably beat any of the other 11 on any given Saturday, thanks to NIL and the portal spreading the wealth to the top 20ish teams. I am hoping the ranking formula does change going forward where there is less focus on the losses and more focus on the wins and how teams are playing at the end of the season. Edited October 18, 2023 by Solar 1 2 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 4 Share Posted October 18, 2023 On 10/18/2023 at 11:23 AM, Log Haulin said: Flip that burger because Oregon IS going to win out and beat Fusky in Vegas. Oregon was the better team last weekend imo. And that was the perfect loss at the perfect time in the perfect place. Ducks finish a perfect 7-0 and ride into the CFP I think you may be right on this, with the possible exception of the Beavers in Eugene. This is a scarier game (to me) then the 'scary' one in Utah, imo. Oregon could win out. I'm not comfortable with saying they will. (I think their chances are very good). And should they get a second chance at UW I fee pretty confident they would win that and will get an invite to the Playoffs. Or at least they should get the invite if what Bartoo writes is correct. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 5 Share Posted October 18, 2023 4 teams. 12 teams. There is always going to be disagreement over which 4 or which 12. Perhaps creating these so-called super conferences (ugh!) will help clear that up as conference winners and runners-up get invites but I still think there will be controversy. Unless something similar to the NFL's playoff selection (facilitated by inter-conference and inter-divisional play) comes into the equation. And how could that possibly happen with 133 FBS Div. I teams? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 6 Share Posted October 18, 2023 "If Oregon beats Washington on a neutral field for the Pac-12 championship, Oregon is in. Win out and the loss to last weekend at Washington is a nothing-burger.” My Vegan diet is starting now. 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 7 Share Posted October 18, 2023 On 10/18/2023 at 3:37 PM, Mic said: 4 teams. 12 teams. There is always going to be disagreement over which 4 or which 12. Perhaps creating these so-called super conferences (ugh!) will help clear that up as conference winners and runners-up get invites but I still think there will be controversy. Unless something similar to the NFL's playoff selection (facilitated by inter-conference and inter-divisional play) comes into the equation. And how could that possibly happen with 133 FBS Div. I teams? And, disagreement in regard to seeding. I believe that come 2026 we will not see the 4 highest ranked conference champions seeded 1-4. Seeding will be as determined by the committee as is the case with CBB. I also will not be surprised in 2026 to see a 16-team field with an assured spot for the best G5 team but no 1st round byes. Start the season in Week 0 and this can work. Sprinkle a decent-sized amount of PO money on the players, this could be accomplished via a NIL Playoff incentive, to overcome the # of games played criticism. With the exclusive broadcast rights for ESPN ending in 2025 the money for playoff rights come 2026 will be off the charts, including streaming entities throwing their hat into the ring. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 8 Share Posted October 18, 2023 On 10/18/2023 at 3:30 PM, Mic said: I think you may be right on this, with the possible exception of the Beavers in Eugene. This is a scarier game (to me) then the 'scary' one in Utah, imo. Oregon could win out. I'm not comfortable with saying they will. (I think their chances are very good). And should they get a second chance at UW I fee pretty confident they would win that and will get an invite to the Playoffs. Or at least they should get the invite if what Bartoo writes is correct. By the ultimate PO Ct ranking on December 3rd, OR's SOS will be better by quite a bit than Oregon State's schedule and the Beavers win against UCLA may not be a top-25 win. And head-to-head in the Civil War will trump any SOS issues. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyduck No. 9 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Good call Solar! Most times you can pencil in USC, Florida, Miami, Texas, Oklahoma, ND as top 15 preseason teams and are barely holding on to top 25 by seasons end. It's a ratings grab to get people interested imo and shouldn't be factored. To be fair, I've seen Oregon ranked too high on occasion as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 10 Share Posted October 18, 2023 On 10/18/2023 at 1:26 PM, candyduck said: Good call Solar! Most times you can pencil in USC, Florida, Miami, Texas, Oklahoma, ND as top 15 preseason teams and are barely holding on to top 25 by seasons end. It's a ratings grab to get people interested imo and shouldn't be factored. To be fair, I've seen Oregon ranked too high on occasion as well. I'm not so sure these so-called rankings shouldn't just be completely done away with until the end of the regular season. Then, given the various won-loss records, the SOS's of each team, the quality wins versus quality losses and the low- quality wins versus low quality losses can all be factored in to try and assemble some sort of meaningful ranking. Any rankings done preseason, early season and mid season are (in my opinion) done strictly for media's benefit to generate viewer interest in certain games. And, of course, to give College Gameday an idea of where next to set up the Home Depot booth. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
