Ok, moved up one. Beat them and we are in CFP

In what poll?

 

The College Football Playoff poll is the only one that matters...

Edited November 26, 20231 yr by OregonDucks

Coaches Poll. No real bearing on CFP ranking but if reinforced by the AP it'll be a trend that's hard to ignore. 

 

1. Georgia 

2. Michigan 

3. Fusky

4. FSU 

5. OBD

6. tOSU

7. Texas 

8. Alabama 

There it is:   also #5 in AP poll.  Clearly Oregon is being viewed as the top 1-loss team still and hopefully the committee maintains that view as well. 

If:

 

Oregon beats Fusky in Vegas.

Dawgs beat Bama in Altanta

Michigan beats Iowa in Indy.

FSU limps home against Louisville 

  in Charlotte 

 

IMHO, the CFP Final Four:

 

1. Georgia

2. Michigan 

3. FSU

4. OBD 

 

IMO the only thing that can screw this up (aside from an Oregon loss) is Georgia falling to Alabama and SEC bias putting both of them in and pushing Oregon out. 

It's heartening to see how both the AP and the coaches seem to see how lights out Oregon has been playing. Gives me some degree of confidence that the playoff committee will see the same thing.

 

If we beat Washington and Florida State falls to Louisville, I would think that would give us the number three seed...... Meaning we likely wouldn't have to play Georgia in the first round. 

 

I like the odds of getting to the championship round in a scenario like that.

Georgia winning will be good.  I can see Louisville upsetting FSU.  Even if Texas beats OSU, I think we're in.  If Texas loses, tOSU will be 4 seed, we'll be #3.  Would Texas jump tOSU for #4?

 

Root for Louisville, Georgia,  and Oklahoma State!

The best thing to come out of this is that I will have the chance to have been at the first PAC-12 Championship game, UCLA vs OBD, and I get to go to the last PAC-12 Championship game.

 

It's really kind of sad.

 

 

On 11/26/2023 at 11:24 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

IMO the only thing that can screw this up (aside from an Oregon loss) is Georgia falling to Alabama and SEC bias putting both of them in and pushing Oregon out. 

 

There is a 0% chance that a non-conference winner would push the Ducks out.  I know some people think that because it is Georgia that possibility exists, but it simply doesn't.

 

If Georgia were to lose, the debate wouldn't be Oregon vs. Georgia.  The debate would be Oregon vs. Texas (assuming Texas wins the Big 12). In that scenario, Texas would have the better 'best win' on their resume, plus they would have blown out a common opponent that Oregon barely beat. Things could become particularly dicey if the Ducks were to win some sort of super close/controversial game over the Huskies.

Edited November 27, 20231 yr by ElPatoUO

I simply can't image any scenario where Oregon, if they beat UW, isn't in the CFP.  Not a Georgia loss to Alabama, not a Texas win in their Conference game nor a Louisville win over FSU (which I think is likely).  

 

Agreed.  I think the CFP committee had been making it very clear up until now that Oregon has a path should they win out.  Still I would love to see Texas, Alabama, and Florida St. all lose.  If that happens, #4 seed is between Ohio St. and Washington which could depend on how close Friday's game is.

 

First things first.  OBD must upend a perfect Washington season that has them feeling entitled to as much destiny as we do.  Did anyone else see the 9.5 line Vegas has favored OBD by?  That has to be a SHOCK to the leg lifters.

First things first: beat UW!  Then….”see where our chips lie….”

 

Go Ducks!!!

ElPatoUO...if Oregon beats Washington, then we would have a better win than Texas.  And the committee recognizes that Oregon played Texas Tech with their starting QB at their home, versus a backup QB at Austin.

On 11/26/2023 at 7:00 PM, Charles Fischer said:

ElPatoUO...if Oregon beats Washington, then we would have a better win than Texas.  And the committee recognizes that Oregon played Texas Tech with their starting QB at their home, versus a backup QB at Austin.

You are aware that Texas beat Alabama....right?  Obviously, in the above scenario, Texas would have the better win since they would literally have beaten a team that will be in the playoffs.  That isn't even debatable.

On 11/26/2023 at 8:58 PM, ElPatoUO said:

You are aware that Texas beat Alabama....right?  Obviously, in the above scenario, Texas would have the better win since they would literally have beaten a team that will be in the playoffs.  That isn't even debatable.

Washington is No. 3, and Alabama was not.  Not debatable.

 

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