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Charles Fischer

Not All, But Most Analysts: 'Oregon Has the Most Direct Path to the Playoffs'

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My many Duck-Buddies,


I have been a very "Nervous-Nellie" over the whole Playoff scenario.  Beating Washington would be epic, but would we be screwed in the end anyway?  So I listened to a few "analysts" with the disclaimer that this is just their opinion...which in my view is no better or inferior to so many of the sagacious members of the Our Beloved Ducks forum. Yet is it wise to consider their reasoning since their voices may influence the committee.


First, we have National Writer for 247 Sports, Brad Crawford, and CBS Sports Playoff Analyst Jerry Palm.  (Damn...I need to upgrade the labels to my credentials!)


Brad Crawford: "It's Washington of Oregon for probably that No. 3 seed."  (Mr. FishDuck comment: Sounds good so far!)


Question by Moderator: If Oregon beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship,...it is pretty much a lock to be in final four?


Crawford now goes in a Longhorn direction: "It's going to be interesting to see which team the committee puts into the Playoff between Oregon and Texas. The Longhorns needed the play Oklahoma in the Big-12 Championship instead of Oklahoma State. I still think the Texas win at Alabama holds water. Who is the committee going to take as a one-loss conference champion? Texas just beat Texas Tech by 50 when Oregon beat the Red Raiders by only eight. It is Oregon or Texas, who has played lights out the last few weeks."


(Mr. FishDuck comment: Crawford does not mention how Oregon played the starter TT QB at their home, versus a backup QB at Austin, but the committee knows)


Jerry Palm: "All the stuff Brad said about Oregon and Texas is true now, and Oregon has been ahead of Texas every single week. If Oregon beats Washington and Texas wins the Big-12, Oregon is still going to be ahead of Texas because nothing has changed that would change the mind of the committee."


Bassa pressure_Eric Evans of Oregon Football.jpg


Now we turn to On3 Playoff Analyst J.D. Pickell: 


"Oregon had to feel the best about their path into the Playoffs as a one-loss conference champion. It really feels like if Oregon wins, they're in."


"The committee (Playoff) has told us every single week that the resume of Oregon is good, but we love the eye-test with Oregon. Every single week the Playoff committee tells us that."


"I don't think the committee is going to somehow pull a fast one on Oregon. I think Oregon at this time--given the scenarios on the table, has to feel the best about their path into the Playoffs as a one-loss conference champion."


"Texas has the best win in America. Texas needs an Oregon loss if they want to find their way in."


(Mr. FishDuck comment: Texas has the best win until Oregon beats the No. 3 seed this next Friday.)


J.D. About Alabama: "Alabama is rooting for chaos, a Texas loss, which removes their head-to-head game, or a loss by Florida State. If they beat Georgia and end up as a one-loss conference champion over the No. 1 team in the country--they would have the best win in college football. Yet they would need a Texas loss to secure a spot."


"The bottom line is...there is a path for all three of these teams, (Oregon, Texas and Alabama) yet it feels to me like Oregon has most direct path."


Celebration_Eric Evans of Oregon Football X Account.jpg


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Mr. FishDuck

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It's feeling more and more like Oregon needs to beat UW by a convincing margin, much like they did Oregon State.  I fear a narrow, close, or come-from-behind win in the last moments gives impetus to Texas' big win over TT even though that team is nowhere near UW in the rankings.  


It's probably just my own "nervous nellie" feelings, much like what Charles stated above. But, I also feel the CFP just HAS to include the winner of the toughest conference in the country (from top to bottom): the Pac-12 Champion.  How can it not?  

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Oregon, Texas, Alabama all won.

Only Oregon beat a ranked team.

Alabama needed a lucky bounce.


Nothing changes the order of those 3 from the past week.

So going into championship week, Oregon is still highest ranked 1 loss team.


Oregon beats UW, a top 4 ranked team, they're in.


Undefeated Michigan is in.

Winner of SEC is in.

Oregon will be in.

Last place a toss up between undefeated FSU from the weak ACC

or 1 loss Texas from weak Big12.


Only way this changes is if chaos reigns supreme and several underdogs win championship. 


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I know the committee isn’t supposed to care about this, but getting to see the B1G champ play the Pac champ in the Rose Bowl in the Pac’s last year would be epically poetic.

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On 11/27/2023 at 9:42 AM, Dr Hilarius said:

I know the committee isn’t supposed to care about this, but getting to see the B1G champ play the Pac champ in the Rose Bowl in the Pac’s last year would be epically poetic

Here's hoping what you said and the below projection comes true!  Oregon vs Michigan in the Rose Bowl.


2023-24 College Football Bowl Projections: Predicting matchups for all 41 games



The bowl matchups are beginning to take form as we enter championship week. Find out where your team is projected to land.


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