Tonight's Playoff Ranking....is Crucial for Oregon

[Charles Fischer]

Oregon has been ranked ahead of Texas all season, so if Ohio State, Alabama or Texas are ranked ahead of Oregon?  Not good going into the final week.  As it sits now--we are projected to be No. 5, and if we then beat No. 3 Washington--we are in.

 

And I'd love to take their No. 3 Seed, because I'd like to play and beat Michigan, and THEN face that formidable Georgia team.

 

Stay at No. 5 this week!

 

Beat the damn Huskies!

 

[Mic]

Yeah!  They're the damn huskies, all right.  A team that's been tettering on the edge of elimination from the top 10 for about three weeks now.

GO DUCKS!

Edited November 28, 2023 by Mic

[noDucknewby]

Texas is the one that concerns me.  They are unlikely to lose to Okie State so will probably be a one-loss conference champion with their only loss to Okiehoma and a win over Alabama.  Hopefully Alabama will be a two-loss team if Georgia beats them, but if Alabama wins then all bets are off.

 

That said, control what we can control.  If we don't finish then all the hypotheticals are irrelevant.

 

 

[Mic]

On 11/28/2023 at 11:17 AM, noDucknewby said:

That said, control what we can control.  If we don't finish then all the hypotheticals are irrelevant.

Pretty much....

[Duckman2]

There isn't really any doubt Oregon will be #5 this week.

 

What I would like to see this week is Michigan moving ahead of Georgia into the #1 spot. That would indicate that the committee will have less respect for a potential Alabama win over UGA.

 

I'll feel pretty better if Ohio State remains #6, ahead of both Texas and Alabama. (Already the case with the AP and coaches poll) That would indicate that the committee isn't trying to possibly create more of an excuse to move Texas and/or Alabama into the playoffs next week.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Duckman2

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/28/2023 at 11:21 AM, Duckman2 said:

There isn't really any doubt Oregon will be #5 this week.

The Athletic just had an article with 16 different scenarios with different teams winning.  In fact that fellow thinks that Ohio State will be No. 5 this week, and Oregon passes them the next week if we beat the Huskies.

 

There were EIGHT different scenarios that put Oregon at No. 3 in the Playoff if they win.  All eight with Oregon winning had them moving past No. 4!

 

Just to be having these discussions....

 

[Jon Joseph]

Good call, but I do not see the Committee moving Texas, a beat down of a team that Oregon beat on the road when the TT roster was at full strength, or Bama, a very fortunate winner at 6-6 Auburn, above Oregon.

 

If Ohio State is 5 and Oregon 6 it really doesn't matter if Oregon defeats UW. 

 

Both Bama's SOS, SOR, and Game Control rankings are better than Oregon's and have been better than Oregon's but this has not mattered to the Committee.

 

Yes, Texas has that win over Bama but the B12 is the lowest ranked P5 conference and fortunately, Texas is playing 3-loss OK St. and not 2-loss brand name Oklahoma in the B12 champ game.

 

I see Oregon remaining as the highest-ranked 1-loss team with the opportunity to defeat likely #3 UW on Friday night. Defeat UW and win the Pac-12 and the only concern I will have is if Bama upsets Georgia on Saturday. It looks like TE Bowers, and WRs McConkey and Thomas will all play for UGA. UGA's run game has been very good and Bama's run defense has not been so good. 

 

Bama's big loss to Texas came at home as did its 3 best wins, Ole Miss, LSU, and Tennessee. I do not see Bama defeating UGA in Atlanta.

 

It would also help if Louisville could defeat FSU. FSU's offense did not look good last Saturday behind its backup QB.

 

GO DUCKS! Paste the puppies.

[Jon Joseph]

Based on the resume, Ohio State should be ranked ahead of Oregon but then again based on the resume and all the metrics, Texas and Bama should have been ranked ahead of Oregon. Why would the Committee jump Texas or Bama above Oregon now? With the beatdown of Oregon State, this would be very hard to justify.

 

Ohio State at 5 and Oregon at 6 is meaningless if Oregon defeats UW.

[Charles Fischer]

There was even the possibility of two Pac-12 teams in the Playoff if the right things happen.  Louisville beats Florida State, and Oregon beats Washington.

 

It was suggested that Washington's resume would be better than Texas or Ohio State?  That would be a cool finish to the Pac-12...

 

[Solar]

I think it will be UW 3, FSU 4, OSU 5 and Oregon 6 Texas 7

 

Once Oregon beats #3 they will jump to 3 due to improved SOS and SOR while, OSU will jump 4 at best as UW drops behind the Texas-Alabama.

 

If FSU is moved lower it shouldn't matter to us, but it will be the talk of the country if it happens.

[Jon Joseph]

Could not have been any better for the Ducks. The Eye Test carries on.

 

Now, the Ducks play the #3 team, UW, in Vegas on Friday night. OREGON 5 and Ohio State 6. Perfect for the Ducks, perfect. 

 

Hats off to the Committee for giving Puddles the eye test love. Defeat #3 UW Friday night and Oregon is in the final Final 4. With a good chance even should FSU win, of moving up to 3 for a playoff Rose Bowl 1st PO season Rose Bowl redux.

 

UW at 3 and Oregon at 5 is love for the Pac-12 that we have rarely seen. I am now leaning toward Oregon even if Bama defeats UGA getting into the final Final Final 4.

 

The only team to move up with a champ game win is Bama. OREGON defeats UW and it matters not what Texas does, Good for the Ducks but bad for the Horns that the B12 is ranked P5 number 5.

 

I still believe that after these rankings and not to go all hubris, that we will see Oregon vs Michigan in a final traditional Rose Bowl game. Texas defeating OK St. is no big deal, ditto FSU beating 2-loss Louisville.

 

I think that FSU will be cannon fodder for UGA in the Sugar Bowl.

 

GO Puddles and Pound the Puppies. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[Solar]

If FSU is #2 and we are #3 don't we play them? And 1 plays 4?

[NJDuck]

On 11/28/2023 at 8:18 PM, Solar said:

If FSU is #2 and we are #3 don't we play them? And 1 plays 4?

Yes

[Solar]

On 11/28/2023 at 5:20 PM, NJDuck said:

Yes

I'd love that. Go Bama and FSU this week! 

[Mic]

Looks like things held steady: Oregon #5, UW #3.  Win Oregon and it looks pretty good that you go to the CFP.  If the committee was going to pull some shenanigans I think they would have done it today.  Maybe they feel confident UW will beat Oregon again, dunno.  They shouldn't.

 

GO DUCKS - CRUSH THE HUSKIES

Edited November 29, 2023 by Mic

[Dr Hilarius]

My dream scenario:

 

#3 OR defeats #2 MI in the Rose Bowl

 

#1 GA defeats #4 TX in the Sugar Bowl

 

OR avenges last year by whooping GA in the Natty

 

A girl can dream… 

 

As an aside, I think the powers that be (aka networks) are also dreaming of this scenario.

[Jon Joseph]

Oregon defeats UW and FSU defeats Louisville and UGA and Michigan hold serve I think Oregon will move to 3 and play 2 Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

 

If UGA wins and Oregon wins the Ducks IMO will move to 3. 

 

If I fostered confusion before I did not mean to do so. BTW, I think that the above will happen, and like in the 1st PO in 2024 Oregon will play in the Rose Bowl.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/28/2023 at 8:24 PM, Mic said:

Looks like things held steady: Oregon #5, UW #3.  Win Oregon and it looks pretty good that you go to the CFP.  If the committee was going to pull some shenanigans I think they would have done it today.  Maybe they feel confident UW will beat Oregon again, dunno.  They shouldn't.

 

GO DUCKS - CRUSH THE HUSKIES

Oregon defeats UW and the Ducks are in. Unless the Bama vs. UGA game is close and the Committee favors 1-loss UGA and its chance for 3 in a row. I do not see this happening with Oregon coming in at 5 tonight.

 

1. UGA  2. Michigan 3. Oregon 4. FSU.

 

FSU has a 70% chance to defeat Louisville even with its starting QB on the bench. A 13-0 P5 team and ACC conference champion will not miss the playoff but will be blown out by UGA in the Sugar Bowl.