CFP Prediction

[QuackAttack]

You heard it here first! Like the CFP Committee always does, they will $crew the PAC12. If the following happens, the PAC12 will be locked out:

 

1. UO beats U-DUB

2. Bama narrowly beats UGA

3. FSU wins

4. Michigan wins

 

Seeding:

1. Michigan 

2. Bama

3. FSU

4.UGA or The OSU if Bama blows UGA out!

 

It will be a predictable and fitting end of the four team playoff!

[Duckman2]

Ohio State is not getting into the playoffs ahead of Oregon. Oregon is already ahead of Ohio State, and Ohio State doesn’t have a chance to avenge their loss like Oregon does. 
 

I also doubt that a 1 loss UGA would get into the playoffs ahead of us.

 

The only concern is that Alabama and by extension presumably  Texas (due to head to head over Alabama) would move ahead of us if Alabama beats Georgia. Really Alabama should have lost any case to move ahead of Oregon after they barely beat a team that was routed by New Mexico State, but you never know what way the committee will think. The committee has already resisted pressure for weeks to move Texas and Alabama ahead of us (we were ahead of them even before Alabama’s shitty game against Auburn), but you never know if they’ll do some last second switcheroo. 

[Dr Hilarius]

@QuackAttack, I haven’t seen anything from the CFP committee to suggest your result.

 

From the first week, OBD have been the top 1-loss team.

 

As each other team loses, they are dutifully ranked behind OBD.

 

I actually think there are reasons to rank other 1-loss teams above OBD, but I will not describe them bc they aren’t worthy.

[QuackAttack]

Never underestimate the CFP Committee’s SEC bias and their disdain for the PAC12, just saying!

[ElPatoUO]

If the Ducks win in a relatively "clean" fashion, none of the other results matter in the slightest since the Ducks will be in, period.  These latest rankings indicate that beyond any shadow of a doubt.  When I say a "clean" win, I mean that the Ducks don't win by help of some controversial call at the very end of the game, or rely on some last second Hail Mary, etc.

 

The Ducks don't need to win in a blowout, they just need to win in a way that doesn't cast doubt on the legitimacy of it.  Even if they win with some controversy, the odds are still probably good they would get in, but it would crack the door open for some serious debate and it would not be a lock.

 

Alabama upsetting Georgia, combined with a controversial Oregon win, would make the selection show a very nervous time for Oregon fans.

Edited November 29, 2023 by ElPatoUO

[Jon Sousa]

The mantra for this Friday should be "Leave No Doubt."

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 11/28/2023 at 7:43 PM, ElPatoUO said:

When I say a "clean" win, I mean that the Ducks don't win by help of some controversial call at the very end of the game, or rely on some last second Hail Mary, etc.

Funny that Bama is still in the conversation only because of a Hail Mary delivered against a team that lost to New Mexico State the previous week. 

 

 

While I don't think it will come down to a last second Vegas miracle for a Duck victory, I'll gladly bow my head, bend my knee and genuflect for a Hail Mary finale if that puts OBD in the playoff.

 

[DanLduck]

With Oregon at #5, highest ranked 1 loss team, a win over #3 UW puts them in guaranteed. 

 

Bama at #8 would only make it to #4 with a win over UGA.

 

FSU lost its starting QB, they will struggle with Louisville. Quite possibly lose. But with a win, FSU is in.

 

Michigan will win, they're in.

 

Texas will win, but if Bama wins UT will be out cuz Bama will have a better win, as OSU is ranked #18, and the SEC bias will give Bama the edge.

Unless, if Texas wins huge, and Bama doesn't, they might get in over UA.

 

Either way, we are in with a victory over #3 UW and Pac-12 championship.