Which Big Baby Has the B1Gest Battle to the B1G Top?

[FishDuck Article]

Which of the Pac-4 to the 2024 B1G teams has the toughest row to hoe? How do the 2024 schedules of OREGON, UCLA, USC, and WASHINGTON (UW) match up? T-25 = teams ranked in the Playoff Committee’s (CT.) ultimate 2023 season ranking/ BT = 2023 bowl teams/ OCC = Out-of-Conference/ P4 = ACC and Notre Dame, B1G, B12, and SEC ...

 

Which Big Baby Has the B1Gest Battle to the B1G Top? | FishDuck

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Which of the Pac-4 to the 2024 B1G teams has the toughest row to hoe? How do the 2024 schedules of OREGON, UCLA, USC, and...

 

[Smith72]

Thanks Jon Joseph for the great article today!  Well researched and written.  

 

I think the hard schedule is karma for USC & UCLA.  They sure deserve it.

 

I appreciate and look forward to your future writing.

[HappyToBeADuck]

JJ that article presented a great deal of detailed info to make your case! Well done and thanks.

 

uscuck definitely has the toughest road for certain. 

 

All the newbies have pretty tough schedules. Playing Top 10 teams is always rough.

 

IMHO, i dont feel the actual schedule matters as much as which teams are ready to make a move to the top 4 of the BIG?

 

Michigan, tOSU and PSU have had a choke hold on the top 3 spots for years.

 

Iowa and Wisconsin, will not be easy outs. Especially on the road in November for any of the 4 babies.

 

 For this fan it boils down to who has the talent, continuity and coaching combination to win those contests?

 

usc - no

Ucla - no

uw- not sure at this point.....

Oregon - yes?????

 

Perhaps we will have a better idea after spring ball and the final round of the portal.

 

Should be alot of off season fireworks.!

 

GO Ducks........

[MicroBurst61]

Probably more like three babies and an adolescent, soon to be a young adult! 

[Jon Joseph]

Thanks for the terrific comments. My memo writing as a (BOO!) lawyer leads me too often into using acronyms. I'll attempt to make my stuff easier to read down the road.

 

Vandalize the Vandels! Bury Boise! Further Ostracize Oregon State! On to the B1G!

[NJDuck]

On 1/23/2024 at 11:19 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Iowa and Wisconsin, will not be easy outs. Especially on the road in November for any of the 4 babies.

Looks like coach Lanning will be cranking the air down to frigid levels the week of practices before these type of games. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/23/2024 at 1:06 PM, NJDuck said:

Looks like coach Lanning will be cranking the air down to frigid levels the week of practices before these type of games. 

Good call.  8 games in a row beginning Week 5, 9/28 at UCLA, with game 6 in the gauntlet being played in Ann Arbor on 11/2, shuffling back to Eugene to play a Maryland team that without its starting QB and all-time B1G passing leader, Taulia Tag, defeated Auburn in its 2023 bowl game, for game 7 in a row, before heading East again to play Wisconsin in game 8 in Madison on 11/16/24. 

 

Forget about 8 games in a row, Ohio State does not have 3 games in a row as difficult as Oregon's games Nos. 6, 7, and 8. 

 

However, with the way the weather has been lately in Eugene? 

[Charles Fischer]

So Oregon has a tougher schedule than Ohio State, as proven by a terrific prior article by Mr. Joseph. But now we see that Oregon is on the third toughest schedule among the four newcomers to the Big Ten conference?

 

That is one way to welcome the newbies to the Big Ten!

 

Terrific research analysis and conclusions Jon!

 

Charles 

[Duckster]

Great stuff Jon. We all knew the jump to the B1G would present some unique challenges, but seeing it laid in detail really drives home the point.

 

Those games ... #6-7-8 ... may serve to define the Duck's postseason aspirations. The Michigan game (#6) is a monster by any standard, but it also creates potential trap games in weeks seven and eight. Home against Maryland (#7) after an extended travel-week, and an emotional high at Ann Arbor, will be a challenge. And then it's right back on another looong road trip to Madison (#8) to play the Badgers in mid-November.

 

Wisconsin in September is one thing, but a mid November game there is (potentially) a different ballgame altogether. So, in our new B1G universe, When you play a team may be as important  as Where you play them. In any case, the Ducks will be one tired football team heading back to Madison after an 8 game stretch of football without a break.

 

It will certainly create some additional interest from me in the Duck's two deep roster coming out of the Spring Game. Team depth will be crucial to navigate the 2024 gauntlet, especially at positions like running back and O- line. Some big bruiser of running back that can pound the rock on a wintery field and complement our current stable of scat-backs sure would be welcome. Cheers!

[Duckley Palace]

My takeaway is that USC should cancel the Notre Dame series if they wanna complain about such a tough schedule. Michigan did it. I'm not sure if Michigan State has. Ohio State will only play them twice a decade.

 

With the conference being so large, and having at least three blue bloods on your schedule, it makes little sense to play a challenging OOC schedule. The committee didn't even reward FSU for it this past year. Eat your cupcakes early, play a marshmellow before rivalry week. Get into the playoffs.

 

Worked for the SEC.

[Jon Joseph]

Good call on ND. Instead of ND, Michigan plays TX in Ann Arbor in 2024 and plays Oklahoma in Norman in 2025.

 

Ohio State's future marquee OOC games: 2025 Texas; 2026 at Texas; 2027 Alabama; 2028 at Alabama. WOW!

 

So, which way do you go scheduling-wise? I think it will be wise for Oregon to observe how much weight the Playoff Committee beginning in 2024, will give to schedule strength compared to simply wins vs. losses. To date, it's been all about the W+Ls. But as noted, this has not stopped Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, and Alabama and others, from scheduling up OOC, including Bama playing at Wisconsin this season. And something will have to separate the seeding for teams 5 - 11 (figuring the G5 for No. 12) and where losses are even, SOS should, and hopefully will, make the difference in seeding where you seed 2 loss LSU vs. 2 loss Penn State.

 

For many SEC teams, the OOC cupcake fest appears to be coming to a close. See above for Texas and Alabama. Georgia plays P4 opponent Georgia Tech every season. GT appears to be on the rise. So, that's 1 P4 opponent every season with the game played at Georgia Tech every other season. In 2024, Georgia also plays Clemson; in 2025 UGA also plays at UCLA; in 2026, UGA also plays UCLA, and at Louisville, for a total of 3 P4 opponents OOC; in 2027, Georgia will again play 3 P4 opponents OOC, Georgia Tech, at FSU, and Louisville. 

 

This season, LSU plays USC and UCLA. Texas A+M opens the season against Notre Dame. 

 

Is this the way to schedule in the future? These games will draw millions of viewers but under existing media and conference agreements, eyes on the prize do not bring in more money than will this season's game when Ole Miss travels to Wake Forest to play its only P4 OOC game. 

 

In 2024, Oregon does not play a P4 opponent. Ditto Ohio State. The Ducks play OR ST on the road instead of TX Tech in Autzen. In 2025, Oregon will play OK St. and Oregon State at home instead of playing at Boise. In 2026, Oregon plays at OK St. Oregon also has a home game scheduled with Portland State. Will this be bumped for a game vs. Oregon State? In 2027 Oregon has a game in Waco vs. Baylor. In 2027, Baylor trips to Autzen. Compared to some of the games shown above, this is 'manageable' OOC scheduling. 

 

Will it make sense down the road to play a Power 2 opponent from the SEC OOC? Or, stick with a B12 opponent such as Cal or Stanford? If you play a 9-game B1G schedule, and a 10th B1G playoff game, you can play the junk OOC that Michigan played this season and end up with the playoff No. 1 seed. 

 

Another consideration? Expand Autzen and the top SEC teams may be more willing to schedule a H+H series with the Ducks. With extra seats to fill, will a marquee OOC opponent make more sense than it does today?