Dan Lanning and His Pursuit of Elite

[Duckster]

For those who have not yet seen it, check out "The Climb-2024 Oregon Football" video (posted earlier on this site, or Google it). Do you get the same feeling that I do, that something just feels different with what's happening foundationally with Oregon Football? Because I think Lanning is pushing our Ducks upwards towards what might be unprecedented heights ... from the mere Good, to Elite.

 

Before we dive deeper into this topic, let us take pause and once again give thanks as fans to all that has recently transpired to the benefit of Oregon Football. First, we dodged a HUGE bullet and retained DL, easily one of the top 10 coaches in CFB and someone who Fits the program better than anyone since probably Bellotti. Secondly, we have the forever genius of Uncle Phil, once again using his considerable influence to steer Oregon's path through extremely choppy waters and into the B1G. And while none of us was pleased to see the demise of the Pac-12, the inability to adapt to change equates to failure in virtually any enterprise. Given these blessings, the program's future is beyond bright, it's incandescent.

 

Awhile back I posted a comment that I didn't believe Oregon was an Elite program, and it stimulated some good dialogue (here's your cue JJ!). Everyone has their opinion and set of criteria to define Elite and categorize which teams are deserving of that definition. For me, OBD's have failed on a number of levels in recent times.  Unimpressive conference record since 2015, head scratching and all too frequent losses to unranked opponents, zero appearances in the CFB playoffs, spotty Bowl record, etc.,etc.

 

Further, I would say that from 2010-2014 Oregon was indeed Elite, and it was glorious to behold.  Aside from a couple of still heart wrenching Stanford losses, Oregon dominated the conference, won numerous Pac-12 Titles, won the first CFB Playoff Game (FSU/ Rose Bowl) in conference history, and appeared in two National Title Games. It was a helluva run, but ultimately proved to be unsustainable.

 

Why unsustainable? Here's a little factoid that puts that particular rat on the table: 2023 was the first time since the end of the 2012-2013 Football Season Oregon was able to retain the entirety of its' primary coaching staff (meaning OC, DC and Head Coach). I know, pretty stunning isn't it.

 

It's been an impossible stretch of Coaching turnover and program upheaval ... to the point where it's somewhat impressive that Oregon has done as well as it has over this period. But as to building something ... establishing program identity, culture, alignment, recruiting, player development, etc. ... I repeat, impossible.

 

This is the first thread in a couple that I have planned for this topic. Hopefully it will engage those of us in need of something to get us through these dog days of the tepid March sports landscape. Maybe sustain us until April, and the sunshine that represents Spring Football for our OBD's. To be continued ...

 

 

 

[Nevada Dawg]

Interesting perspective. I have been thinking myself about the development of an elite program in Eugene and would argue that we are not there by any means as of this date. Lanning is certainly doing the right things in recruiting and retention of players and assistants and working hard to establish a culture. But elite-ness is as much an attitude as anything, and with some successes in truly big games, which have not yet happened, that elite mentality will grow and ,hopefully, prove to be somewhat self-sustaining. I watched that evolution in Athens over a 5-year period 2016-2021, and Dan saw it too. Thus, he has the template and the drive to potentially make it happen. Keep your fingers crossed.

[Haywarduck]

Agree it is a mentality, but it also takes a special kind of talent and extremely savvy coaching. 

 

Hearing about Odunze's NFL combine tryout made me realize he truly was one of the difference makers on that team. It takes a few guys who just don't give up, and have elite talent. Sometimes you recruit those guys, but often that is a culture you develop.

 

It also takes a coach who knows how to call those big games. Not sure if Lanning is there yet, but it seems he has the ability to get there.

 

All these elements are what makes a program truly elite like Alabama has been for a while or the Longhorn program over the past 15 years.

 

The line between elite, and looking like you should be elite is a fine one, but I think Lanning is going to step over that line soon.

[Drake]

I think recruiting in the top 5 annually is a good indicator that you are becoming elite. Beyond that you have to win. If you don’t have the players, you won’t be elite. 

 

A coach has to be allowed to create their own identity, and I believe DL is still creating his identity. In a team oriented endeavor, everyone top to bottom must support each other, and be able to overcome the inevitable hardships that are encountered. 
 

Being elite takes hard work, and a commitment to do that work diligently. 

[Jon Joseph]

Thanks, Duckster. Great post.

 

Here's some ammo to support Oregon being an 'Elite Program.' And also in support of the B1G and the SEC having 3 automatic qualifiers in the proposed 14-team playoff field in 2026. 

 

ESPN+ (paywall) Bill Connolly in an article posted today, ranked the top 86 programs that appeared in one or more Playoff Committee (PO Ct) Top 25 ranking during the 4-team decade-long playoff 'era.'  Connolly also posted the average SP+ ranking for each team ranked.

 

1. Alabama - 127-14 - SP+ 1st/ 2. Clemson - 119-20 - SP+ 3rd/ 3. Ohio State - 115-15 - SP+ 2nd - Only program other than Bama ranked in all of the PO Ct's 60 Top 25 rankings/ 4. Georgia 119-22 - SP+ 3rd, tied with Clemson at 3rd/ 5. Michigan - 94-32 - SP+ 5th/ 6. Oklahoma - 102-29 - SP+ 6th/ 7. LSU - 90-38 - SP+ 7th -

 

8. OREGON - 90-38 - SP+ 17th (Puddles punches way above the SP+ ranking) - Bill Connolly: "Top 15 each of the last 5 years. 5 NY6 and 1 Title appearance. 9 weeks in PO Ct top 4. Tied with Oklahoma for 9th most ranked in final AP Polls. As many wins as LSU, and as many NY 6/Playoff games as Michigan. More conference titles than Georgia. But Oregon does not have a national title."

 

9. Notre Dame and 10. Washington.

 

Eight B1G teams are in the Top 25 of the rankings; SC just misses the cut at No. 26. 7 SEC teams are in the Top 25. 15 B1G and SEC teams ranked in the Top 25 = 60% of the ranked teams. 6 automatic qualifiers from the B1G and the SEC (3 apiece) = 42.85% of a 14-team playoff field. Are the Power 2 asking for enough?

 

Oregon is in the top 10 in the 4-team playoff decade and arguably 'Elite.' However, as Connolly notes, no title for OBD as of yet. Maybe in 2024? 

 

BTW, our 'buddies at Oregon State are ranked No. 72. 46-72 with an SP grade of - (minus!) 3.1 - 74th. 

Edited March 4 by Jon Joseph

[Nevada Dawg]

I agree with everything you said Hayward Duck with one exception and I'll invite you to clarify and/or correct any misconception I might be under. By what metric have the Texas Longhorns been elite over the past 15 years? True they won a natty in the 20-aughts, maybe 2005. But the Longhorns I've been watching have been underachievers since then IMHO and anything but elite. Indeed, they haven't even been notably good since then save last year. Maybe the difference in our opinions stems from us using very different metrics for "elite". I'm really not trying to be argumentative here but am puzzled a bit about Texas and elite being in the same universe, except for the one Natty year a long time ago.

[Duckster]

Good opinions all around guys and thanks for taking the time to respond. Dr. J, great stats as always! Very illuminating and to be honest, come as something of a surprise to me. Granted, I probably need to expand my criteria as to the definition of elite ... I'm more micro than macro in that regard. In the eyeball test, my glasses are somewhat shaded ... having closely watched the team evolve over the decades. Too often the Ducks have come up short in big match-ups to ever ascend to my vision of what constitutes Elite (again, the CK years excepted). I conjure up recent visions of DL's first game, playing against the current gold standard of Elite ... Georgia on the road. Granted it was a classic trap game and all the cards were stacked against the Ducks. But to be dominated the way they were (49-3) came as equal surprise. Unfortunately they were once again"Weighed, measured and found wanting "

[Jon Joseph]

Duckster, as we said in Boston for eight decades: Wait Until Next Year!

[KCDuck1]

On 3/4/2024 at 1:57 PM, Drake said:

I think recruiting in the top 5 annually is a good indicator that you are becoming elite. Beyond that you have to win. "If you don’t have the players, you won’t be elite." 

 

A coach has to be allowed to create their own identity, and I believe DL is still creating his identity. In a team oriented endeavor, everyone top to bottom must support each other, and be able to overcome the inevitable hardships that are encountered. 
 

Being elite takes hard work, and a commitment to do that work diligently. 

Drake, I agree with everything you stated, but I believe you missed one thing: we must have the coaches, and we must retain them. We might be able to develop some good players in each area, but not enough to be elite. Therefore, we must have the players with elite potential. But, they have to learn how to work, to push, and to stretch themselves. They are doing part of that right now - The Climb. Must still become a TEAM.

 

As Duckster stated, the Georgia Bulldogs weighed us, they measured us, and they found us wanting. UW and OSU did the same to us. Last year, UW did that to us in the PAC-12 Championship game in the 1st and 4th Qtrs. UW became the Medes and the Persians, and they re-directed the Euphretes River so they could destroy us. Initially, they scored, and we looked like saps - don't think we had a 1st Down in the first 2-3 series; 4th Qtr - we could not stop them or that RB. He demanded 6-7 yards every carry, and he took them.

 

Let's see what this year brings. We are re-shaping and re-directing that culture to be a very tough out for any team, and our defense is tougher than last year - best tackling year I have ever seen by the Ducks except for the championship game. We have to learn how to defeat O-Line blocks consistently and beat the big back behind them. We could not stop that RB. Must win that battle this year.

 

Best regards and Go Ducks!

KCDuck1

Edited March 6 by KCDuck1

[Mike West]

On 3/3/2024 at 1:09 PM, Duckster said:

This is the first thread in a couple that I have planned for this topic. Hopefully it will engage those of us in need of something to get us through these dog days of the tepid March sports landscape. Maybe sustain us until April, and the sunshine that represents Spring Football for our OBD's. To be continued ...

Duckster,

 

That was a full blown article!  And a damn good one at that.  Looking forward to the next installment.  Simply fabulous.

[Mike West]

Had to look at the comments before pitching in.

 

Elite in my eyes must include defeating the elite teams.  Has happened twice in the past 12 years ( losing record). Miss.

 

Elite involves a killer instinct mentality.  Lesser teams never have a chance.  Check.

 

Elite teams enter the fray as elite when they climb back from self inflicted wounds.  Especially against elite teams.  They must finish however.  Mixed.

 

I recognize Dan Lanning has been criticized for taking risks.  The first Washington loss told me we had arrived.  The second loss told me we still need more players,but the coaches need to play the game they're in, not the just the one they gameplanned for.

 

OBD are At the cusp. 

 

Ryan Day and Dan Lanning are in the same spot.  Their fan bases are tense, desperate, and nervous.  Day has the talent advantage, the schedule advantage, and tOSU is a proven Blue Blood.

 

Snatch a victory in Eugene.  That puts OBD in the room.  But our fledging program will be mocked until we win a Natty.

 

I'm very interested in what DL does with this relatively young team.  I plan an article myself about our prospects this year.  Don't know if I can light the pages up like Duckster did (whew!), but I'm excited about our prospects, and look forward to "spitting" my thoughts regarding our future.

[Haywarduck]

On 3/4/2024 at 10:25 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

I agree with everything you said Hayward Duck with one exception and I'll invite you to clarify and/or correct any misconception I might be under. By what metric have the Texas Longhorns been elite over the past 15 years? True they won a natty in the 20-aughts, maybe 2005. But the Longhorns I've been watching have been underachievers since then IMHO and anything but elite. Indeed, they haven't even been notably good since then save last year. Maybe the difference in our opinions stems from us using very different metrics for "elite". I'm really not trying to be argumentative here but am puzzled a bit about Texas and elite being in the same universe, except for the one Natty year a long time ago.

Agree and changed the wording on my post, from 'and' to 'or,' to better align with the intent. My intention was to contrast the Alabama program with the Texas program. Both had the talent, but Texas always came up short over the past 15 years.

 

I agree we have the potential to turn into an Alabama type program, or a Texas type program, my bet more like Alabama.

 

Also just read an article about how the attitude of the players after the Rose Bowl loss help lead Saban into retirement. Creating a culture of hungry, chip on your shoulder type players is tougher than ever. 

 

The derecruitment process within a program is even more critical with NIL money, and the coddling of student athletes in this day and age.

 

The one great indicator is how Lanning is bringing in multiple players to compete at positions of need. He is trying to put the best product on the field, time will tell if he can, to the level needed.

[Duckster]

Hey Mike ... thanks for all the kind words. I've always enjoyed your writing and comments as well over the years. Lot's of good insight. Agree completely with your take about the OSU game at Autzen this year. Huge opportunity for the Ducks to announce themselves to the B1G and make a national statement. Also the take on Lanning and coaches being able to elevate their in game processes . "The game they are in vs. what they game planned for." Brilliant ...

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/6/2024 at 9:51 AM, Haywarduck said:

Agree and changed the wording on my post, from 'and' to 'or,' to better align with the intent. My intention was to contrast the Alabama program with the Texas program. Both had the talent, but Texas always came up short over the past 15 years.

 

I agree we have the potential to turn into an Alabama type program, or a Texas type program, my bet more like Alabama.

 

Also just read an article about how the attitude of the players after the Rose Bowl loss help lead Saban into retirement. Creating a culture of hungry, chip on your shoulder type players is tougher than ever. 

 

The derecruitment process within a program is even more critical with NIL money, and the coddling of student athletes in this day and age.

 

The one great indicator is how Lanning is bringing in multiple players to compete at positions of need. He is trying to put the best product on the field, time will tell if he can, to the level needed.

Great post, Hayward. I'll take Bama over the Horns every day of the week and every week in a given year.

 

Texas except on a few occasions under Mack Brown has been all hat and no cattle. Hats off to Sark for getting UT to the playoff but except for UW's last possession Texas was outcoached. Texas was running the ball down UW's throat, like Michigan did in the champ game, and did not run enough plays on the ground. I think that Texas going into 2024, although like Ohio State the Horns have a relatively easy conference schedule, and Michigan is the only one of 4 OOC teams with a heartbeat, is overrated.

 

Texas won a weak B12 last season. Texas lost to Oklahoma last season and was fortunate not to rematch with OK in the B12 champ game. (Would Dillon have stayed for this game?) And playing the PO semifinal in Dixie benefitted the Horns.

 

Alabama under Saban was dominant. Especially in the 4-team playoff decade. Saban set a standard that will be difficult for any other program to match. Especially today with NIL, no restraint on transfers, and a more difficult road to a conference championship in the SEC and the B1G.

 

Texas lost all of its top WRs. Lost its two best RBs. Lost the core of its DL. And is Sark ready to outcoach Kirby, Kiffin, Kelly, and DeBoer? Is Texas a lock to defeat Oklahoma in 2024? No. 

 

The first one is the hardest. But as of today, one Oregon championship would be great to see; especially at my age.

Edited March 6 by Jon Joseph

[Jon Joseph]

Mike, totally agree with Ducksters's kudos. 

 

I always appreciate your posts. Spot on regarding Ohio State having a far easier schedule than Oregon in 2024. Oregon's 2024 opponents finished 101-57 in 2023. Ohio State's finished 83-71. Ohio State plays 8 games in Columbus, and Oregon plays 7 (thanks, Rob.) 

 

In 2024, Oregon has 8 weeks with no off week. Ohio State's longest stretch is 6 games at the end of the season. In this stretch, 2 of the Duck's last 4 games will be played in Ann Arbor and Madison in November. In its stretch, Ohio State plays 2 away games, at NW, where it will have more fans than the Wildcats, and at Penn State. The Nittany Lions have not defeated the Buckeyes since 2016. 

 

Taking down Ohio State in Eugene could be a necessity if Oregon wants to play in the B1G champ game in Indianapolis in December.

[Mike West]

On 3/6/2024 at 8:51 AM, Duckster said:

Hey Mike ... thanks for all the kind words

When I read it, I was like WOW.

 

It was thorough, thought provoking, and timely.  It should have been a FishDuck article.

 

I'm following several folks on X (Twitter).  Nothing against anyone else, mostly because I've decided to get more info from Blue Blood fans, but I would have posted that for sure on X.

 

The discussion would have been lively (an Ohio State fan trolled us this afternoon in fact, so your post would have been perfect). 

 

I can't wait for the second post, and I'm going to find a way to post this thread. 

[Mike West]

On 3/6/2024 at 10:38 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Taking down Ohio State in Eugene could be a necessity if Oregon wants to play in the B1G champ game in Indianapolis in December

You could be right.  Depends on Michigan and Penn State.  I fear Sherrone Moore is another David Shaw, and I'd QB Drew Allar has an OC that opens that offense up, the Nittany Lions can make the Conference Title race a nail biting affair.

[Jon Joseph]

Moore has more to do at Michigan than any 1st year coach should be asked to do. The O from 2023 is gone. 4 starters back on D. 

 

I think Penn State takes the loss at home vs, Ohio State, on the road at USC, and perhaps, in Madison. For playoff seeding purposes if PSU qualifies, the opening game against W VA on the road will not be easy.