Whoa! Oregon Severely Undervalued in the Blue-Chip Ratio....

[Charles Fischer]

Ok, it is great that Oregon ranks so high at No. 5 in the nation, but a couple of disclaimers need to be added:

 

1. These are rankings on 247 Sports, and not Rivals.

 

2. Most of the Ducks' 4/5-Star players are still underclassmen, and not making a big impact yet.

 

3. This ranking does not include transfers! Good gosh, with the way Lanning has killed it in the portal...and that doesn't count?  So, a player like Dillon Gabriel, who was originally a 3-Star with UCF, but now is a Heisman Candidate-does not count?  Ditto for so many others brought in by the portal?

 

 

 

My FishDuck Friends....this means our roster is MUCH more loaded than anyone realizes. 

We are going to surprise a ton of people...especially in the B1G!

 

[Jon Joseph]

SP+ will come with a combined raking later this season.

 

A+M lost the baseball champ game to Tennessee and stayed on the NCAA no-champs list in any sport since 1939. Jimbo Fisher, $72M for doing the least with the most.

Edited June 25 by Jon Joseph

[Jon Joseph]

Every team that won a BCS and/or a 4-team Playoff had a Blue Chip Roster. If history holds, one of the teams listed above will win it all in 2024. (The number could rise when Bill Connelly posts the BCR combined recruiting and transfer list.)

 

8 SEC teams; 5 B1G teams; 2 ACC teams (both trying to bail out); Notre Dame and Zero B12 teams. 

 

Clemson and FSU join the SEC, Notre Dame and UNC join the B1G, and the myth of a Power 4 will conclude. 

 

Other than the four teams listed above, what other teams will be qualified to join a Football Super Conference? 

 

[Charles Fischer]

I think Miami fans feel they belong, and it is a good media market.

 

But-heck with them!

 

And there is talk of Utah, who is good at a ton of sports…

 

But I wanted Cal and Stanford to join the Big Ten simply so we would have cannon fodder on the West Coast and not have to travel so well, and because they are such a great academic additions to the conference.

 

But, you have convinced me that they do not add value to the conference in terms of revenue, and in fact would hurt the bottom line for all of us.

 

[Jon Joseph]

Blue-Chip Ratio 2024: These 16 college football teams can actually win the national championship - CBSSports.com

WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

---

Breaking down the programs that have done well enough on the recruiting trail to win the first 12-team CFP in the 2024 season

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/25/2024 at 5:16 PM, Charles Fischer said:

I think Miami fans feel they belong, and it is a good media market.

 

But-heck with them!

 

And there is talk of Utah, who is good at a ton of sports…

 

But I wanted Cal and Stanford to join the Big Ten simply so we would have cannon fodder on the West Coast and not have to travel so well, and because they are such a great academic additions to the conference.

 

But, you have convinced me that they do not add value to the conference in terms of revenue, and in fact would hurt the bottom line for all of us.

 

Certain teams will probably be invited because of the location near a pro team. ASU, UW, CU, Maryland. Maybe one of Cal or Stanford.

 

Unlike the NFL, I don't think that Super Conference teams will receive an equal media cut. Eyes on the prize will matter.

 

Miami finished 22nd in the 2023 Nielson rankings. (The Orlando market is now larger than the Miami market.) Cal and Stanford finished outside the top 32. Utah came in 25th.

 

The Prime effect Mississippi State finished 32nd. Every SEC team except Vandy was in the top 32 including newbies Oklahoma and Texas. Oregon, UW, and USC finished 7, 11, and 13. UCLA finished outside the top 32. Prime Timers finished No. 3. 

 

I see no reason to have more than 32 teams; don't dilute the product.

Edited June 25 by Jon Joseph

[Jon Joseph]

Welcome to the B1G!

 

Big Ten expansion: Best, worst scenarios for USC, Oregon, Washington, UCLA in first season as league members - CBSSports.com

WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

---

How will the four Pac-12 transplants fare in their maiden Big Ten voyage?

 

[cartm25]

Miami and Cristbal made the list of teams that “can actually win the national championship” . . .

 

[Mike West]

On 6/25/2024 at 4:04 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Certain teams will probably be invited because of the location near a pro team. ASU, UW, CU, Maryland. Maybe one of Cal or Stanford.

 

Unlike the NFL, I don't think that Super Conference teams will receive an equal media cut. Eyes on the prize will matter.

 

Miami finished 22nd in the 2023 Nielson rankings. (The Orlando market is now larger than the Miami market.) Cal and Stanford finished outside the top 32. Utah came in 25th.

 

The Prime effect Mississippi State finished 32nd. Every SEC team except Vandy was in the top 32 including newbies Oklahoma and Texas. Oregon, UW, and USC finished 7, 11, and 13. UCLA finished outside the top 32. Prime Timers finished No. 3. 

 

I see no reason to have more than 32 teams; don't dilute the product.

How many LA fa s are going to watch a perennial 8-4 USC product?

 

How many CFB fans are going to watch Bama, UGA and Ohio State in the title game each year?

 

How long will it be before fans stop watching because Ohio State got $125M a year before the playoffs and Maryland got $40M?

 

What if that resulted in only 32-48 schools being able to field college football teams?  

 

I like the idea of USC at Michigan every three years or so.  Will the average college football fan? Just so Michigan and USC can finance a team like the NFL does?

 

I'm not sure these guys grasp the tone of the country at present.  People are tired of elites destroying traditions.  

 

The best thing that can happen to College Football this year is if Utah hosts and SEC powerhouse in the snow on Friday- the very first expanded playoff game-and wins in a walk off fashion.

 

Then Georgia and/ or Ohio State gets upset.  

 

People believe in justice and fairness.  They aren't going to feel like supporting a corporate takeover of college football.

 

I know the South and the Midwest will love it.  Is that a large enough fan base to create a $6B superleague?

[David Marsh]

On 6/25/2024 at 7:28 PM, cartm25 said:

Miami and Cristbal made the list of teams that “can actually win the national championship” . . .

 

Cristobal got Oregon on that list for the first time. 

 

Remember this is about talent on paper, not on-field coaching or ability. 

 

Oregon made the national championship game twice with rosters that were below the blue chip ratio but couldn't finish the deal. 

 

There are always teams that have a blue chip ratio but never sniff at the title. 

[Charles Fischer]

Oh Mike...  First of all for those who do not know--Mike and I are friends who are not bashful about sharing our thoughts with each other, and this time it is on the forum, and not on the phone.

 

Second....I no longer have much patience for the "Chicken-Little" pronouncements that used to gush from this site, and still pop up on occasion like Mike's post. Why?  Because these dreadful "predictions" have no basis in fact, and are just that person's WAG on the situation of which is also throwing cold water on everyone else who may want to enjoy an epic season coming up.

 

I've heard all this before....TONS of people wringing their hands here and gnashing their teeth over, "how NIL and the portal will destroy college football."  

 

 

Not for Oregon; in fact Our Beloved Ducks have killed-the-portal with Dan Lanning unlike anything we could have ever imagined.  In fact...where would this team be without all the portal transfers?  Would we be a 'Natty contender without the NIL and portal?  This is one example of how the gloom-and-doomers were completely WRONG, and how things turned pretty well for Oregon.

 

Third...is the market big enough?  Who cares? What matters is that for the intense Oregon fan like I-is that we are in the thick of it, and we will flourish and do fine.  Selfish, yes, but not any different than how anyone else would react.  I cannot change the market forces making these changes, thus no need to be a negative-Nellie to everyone else when I have no idea how things will actually play-out later.

 

If you are right and the market is not there?  Then the next media contract will reflect that, and everyone will have to adjust. Sometimes traditions are broken due to societal trends, and those currents cannot be stopped.  Other times it was a faulty model that existed for years, and finally ran its course.

 

Nobody likes all the changes, but we need to embrace it, for we will still get to enjoy watching Oregon Football in the future.  Let's see how it actually shakes out before declaring the worst?

 

 

[JabbaNoBargain]

On 6/26/2024 at 8:57 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Oh Mike...  First of all for those who do not know--Mike and I are friends who are not bashful about sharing our thoughts with each other, and this time it is on the forum, and not on the phone.

 

Second....I no longer have much patience for the "Chicken-Little" pronouncements that used to gush from this site, and still pop up on occasion like Mike's post. Why?  Because these dreadful "predictions" have no basis in fact, and are just that person's WAG on the situation of which is also throwing cold water on everyone else who may want to enjoy an epic season coming up.

 

I've heard all this before....TONS of people wringing their hands here and gnashing their teeth over, "how NIL and the portal will destroy college football."  

 

 

Not for Oregon; in fact Our Beloved Ducks have killed-the-portal with Dan Lanning unlike anything we could have ever imagined.  In fact...where would this team be without all the portal transfers?  Would we be a 'Natty contender without the NIL and portal?  This is one example of how the gloom-and-doomers were completely WRONG, and how things turned pretty well for Oregon.

 

Third...is the market big enough?  Who cares? What matters is that for the intense Oregon fan like I-is that we are in the thick of it, and we will flourish and do fine.  Selfish, yes, but not any different than how anyone else would react.  I cannot change the market forces making these changes, thus no need to be a negative-Nellie to everyone else when I have no idea how things will actually play-out later.

 

If you are right and the market is not there?  Then the next media contract will reflect that, and everyone will have to adjust. Sometimes traditions are broken due to societal trends, and those currents cannot be stopped.  Other times it was a faulty model that existed for years, and finally ran its course.

 

Nobody likes all the changes, but we need to embrace it, for we will still get to enjoy watching Oregon Football in the future.  Let's see how it actually shakes out before declaring the worst?

 

 

Preach!

 

Couldn’t agree more and I’m not even sucking up  

 

People are just guessing on so many topics, but bottom line, this evolution is exactly what was needed to give “upstarts” like OBD a real shot.
 

No matter what forces shape the next 10 years, the Georgia’s of the college football world will still be there, and hopefully, so will OBD. Once we there, we ain’t leaving.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/26/2024 at 12:35 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

Preach!

 

Couldn’t agree more and I’m not even sucking up  

 

People are just guessing on so many topics, but bottom line, this evolution is exactly what was needed to give “upstarts” like OBD a real shot.
 

No matter what forces shape the next 10 years, the Georgia’s of the college football world will still be there, and hopefully, so will OBD. Once we there, we ain’t leaving.

Great comments by Mike West, Charles, and you, Sir Jabba.

 

The numbers for college football attendance and viewership both improved in 2023 notwithstanding CFB being on the cusp of a Power 5 conference disappearing, brand names consolidating into a Power 2 and a little 'p' power 2, CFB players having the opportunity to transfer twice during the year without restrictions on eligibility, student-athletes permissively hiring agents, CFB and all other college athletes having the right to play-for-pay via NIL and moving closer to direct pay-for-play, with all but one of the most-viewed games in 2023 featuring at least one B1G or SEC team. Ohio State at Michigan drew close to 20 million viewers.

 

After the NFL, college football is the most-watched sport in the USA.  The Ducks finished 7th in the Nielson ratings in 2024 without playing a game in the Big House and playing Ohio State in Autzen Stadium. 

 

Untapped equity with venture capital investment in CFB is on the horizon. In 2031, I believe Oregon will bring in more than the anticipated $100M a year in revenue. 

 

A Super Conference with 28 to 40 teams will only increase the quality of the games and end but a few top-25 games on a given weekend. 

[DanLduck]

On 6/26/2024 at 11:17 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Great comments by Mike West, Charles, and you, Sir Jabba.

 

The numbers for college football attendance and viewership both improved in 2023 notwithstanding CFB being on the cusp of a Power 5 conference disappearing, brand names consolidating into a Power 2 and a little 'p' power 2, CFB players having the opportunity to transfer twice during the year without restrictions on eligibility, student-athletes permissively hiring agents, CFB and all other college athletes having the right to play-for-pay via NIL and moving closer to direct pay-for-play, with all but one of the most-viewed games in 2023 featuring at least one B1G or SEC team. Ohio State at Michigan drew close to 20 million viewers.

 

After the NFL, college football is the most-watched sport in the USA.  The Ducks finished 7th in the Nielson ratings in 2024 without playing a game in the Big House and playing Ohio State in Autzen Stadium. 

 

Untapped equity with venture capital investment in CFB is on the horizon. In 2031, I believe Oregon will bring in more than the anticipated $100M a year in revenue. 

 

A Super Conference with 28 to 40 teams will only increase the quality of the games and end but a few top-25 games on a given weekend. 

The only drawback I see to the big payout of 2031 is the value of tv revenue dwindling. 

 

ESPN has cut personnel in a $$ savings effort. Streaming is now gaining in popularity daily.

 

Will the networks afford the big payday we are hoping for?

 

When motivated, the public has responded negatively to perceived slights by corporations (Bud Light, Target, etc). Mike does have a point about fans becoming disillusioned. 

 

College kids being paid will change fan reaction, as many will have even less tolerance for dropped passes or missed blocks.

The era of overt big money to players is relatively new and fans are still adjusting. 

 

If Oregon isn't in the Rosebowl, will I watch? Or care? I would if it was a Pac12 team, but loyalties are now broken.

I see potential for a loss of excitement in CFB as it becomes more NFL light.

Too many commercial breaks, new rules to protect players and teams investments...right now they are 2 different games and fans appreciate that.

 

But hey, in the meantime, we should be really excited for the Ducks future. It's never looked brighter.

 Our brand and fan base will only grow larger as we now get better TV coverage.

We have great games coming against teams we've never played or too seldom played over the next 3 years.

Lanning and Co are nailing recruiting. 

 

We are well placed to succeed going forward.

And yeah, we got cool new uniforms too.

How good can it get!

[Jon Joseph]

DanL, I believe you are spot on when it comes to streaming. It's but a matter of time before cable and network TV give way to streaming. SEE: ESPN, Fox, and Warner forming the Venu Sports streaming entity that will debut this fall. This is Cats and Dogs lying down together. 

 

I do not believe that a move to streaming will negatively impact Oregon's college football revenues. Streaming will lead the way to all conference members not receiving an equal share of revenue; particularly, from football and men's basketball. The teams that draw the most eyeballs will collect a larger share of revenue. Oregon will have the opportunity to distance itself financially from Indiana and Northwestern. Equal pay for all is one of the last vestiges leftover from the 'Student-Athlete' model.

 

With football and men's basketball in particular being capitalized, the winners will receive the larger share of revenue as is the case in all capitalized enterprises. I expect some programs will eliminate football and compete in non-revenue sports.

 

There will be no closing of Pandora's Vault.

[cartm25]

On 6/26/2024 at 8:50 AM, David Marsh said:

Remember this is about talent on paper, not on-field coaching or ability. 

Indeed!! Which is the reason for the laughing GIF . . . because Mari Cristbal is still the HC calling the shots on game day. No amount of talent can overcome that obstacle.

[Jon Joseph]

Spot On Charles, OREGON is loaded. Using 247 Sports for consistency between BCR and other rankings. (247's rankings are a combination of 247 Inhouse, RIVALS, and ESPN rankings.)

 

Blue Chip Roster Ranking - 5

 

Recruiting Ranking - 3

 

Transfer Ranking - 2

 

2023 Nielson CFB Viewer Ranking - 7

 

Solid across the board.

 

 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

From BCS and 4-team playoff history, the BCR Sweet 16 are the leaders in the 2024 clubhouse. Using Sports Illustrated 2024 preseason Strength of Schedule rankings, below are the Sweet 16 ranked by the easiest to the most difficult SOS.

 

1. Clemson - 72 - [You get This Schedule and you sue HQ?]

 

2. Ohio State - 57 - []

 

3. Notre Dame - 54 - [ In the conference champ game, ND plays Winkin, Blinkin + Nod]

 

4. Auburn - 52 -  [We were This Close to beating Bama! Maryland, not so much.]

 

5. Texas - 49 - [ Welcome aboard Bevo! Your seat is in 1st Class.]

 

6. Texas A+M - 39 - [ We paid $72M and couldn't get an easier schedule. Mizzou - 127; Ole Miss - 46]

 

7. LSU - 37 -  [Good luck in Las Vegas - You and Troy play one another in game 1, defenseless and down a Heisman-winning QB]

 

8. Penn State -33 - [Congrats! 10-2 this season may take you to the Playoffs.]

 

9. Miami - 30 - [Take a Knee! Cam, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, er, bench.]

 

10. Georgia - 20 - [Dawg Gone It! This Close to a 3-pete! Seminoles, don't take it personally.] 

 

11. Oklahoma - 11 - [The Sooner you take your seat in coach the Sooner we can take off.]

 

12. Michigan - 10 - [Come Back Jim, Come Back! Who let these Trojans and Ducks on my Big House lawn?]

 

13. Alabama - 9 - [Nothing 'Sweet Home' about this schedule.]

 

14. Oregon - 5 - [B1G HQ, what did Phil do to you?]

 

15. USC - 2 - [ No defense, but this isn't the scheduling Life of Riley. Nuck, Nuck, Nuck.]

 

16. Florida - 1 - [ Later, Gators. Have a nice day. And perhaps hire the Mizzou AD?]

 

Is it 8/31 yet?

 

[Jon Joseph]

Another take on 2024's Sweet 16.

 

Here are the 16 teams that can win a national championship based on one sticky metric

FANSIDED.COM

---

While I do not claim to be a numbers guy by any stretch of the imagination, all I know is that the more dudes you have, the better chance you have of winning mo

 

[Mike West]

On 6/26/2024 at 8:57 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Oh Mike...  First of all for those who do not know--Mike and I are friends who are not bashful about sharing our thoughts with each other, and this time it is on the forum, and not on the phone.

 

Second....I no longer have much patience for the "Chicken-Little" pronouncements that used to gush from this site, and still pop up on occasion like Mike's post. Why?  Because these dreadful "predictions" have no basis in fact, and are just that person's WAG on the situation of which is also throwing cold water on everyone else who may want to enjoy an epic season coming up.

 

I've heard all this before....TONS of people wringing their hands here and gnashing their teeth over, "how NIL and the portal will destroy college football."  

 

 

Not for Oregon; in fact Our Beloved Ducks have killed-the-portal with Dan Lanning unlike anything we could have ever imagined.  In fact...where would this team be without all the portal transfers?  Would we be a 'Natty contender without the NIL and portal?  This is one example of how the gloom-and-doomers were completely WRONG, and how things turned pretty well for Oregon.

 

Third...is the market big enough?  Who cares? What matters is that for the intense Oregon fan like I-is that we are in the thick of it, and we will flourish and do fine.  Selfish, yes, but not any different than how anyone else would react.  I cannot change the market forces making these changes, thus no need to be a negative-Nellie to everyone else when I have no idea how things will actually play-out later.

 

If you are right and the market is not there?  Then the next media contract will reflect that, and everyone will have to adjust. Sometimes traditions are broken due to societal trends, and those currents cannot be stopped.  Other times it was a faulty model that existed for years, and finally ran its course.

 

Nobody likes all the changes, but we need to embrace it, for we will still get to enjoy watching Oregon Football in the future.  Let's see how it actually shakes out before declaring the worst?

 

 

My dear friend Mr. FishDuck ,

 

I've been for the Demise of the PAC12 since before USC left.

 

I have already listed EVERY SEC and B1G marquee matchups for the season (ACC and Big 12 pivotal games too).  My real question is will Oklahoma State fans?  Will Pittsburgh fans?

 

I'm quite certain Duck Nation would lament the landscape had we gone to the Big 12, or worse accepted that ridiculous streaming offer. 

 

I'm concerned CFB going to try to compete with the NFL.  Bad career move ( my opinion of course).  That would reflect in the next contract.  

 

 

Power for the sake of power is never good.  I don't mind the Power 2 dictating terms.  I just don't want to see the sport change so radically the fans lose interest.  

 

I don't lament the changes, I just believe CFB is a distinct product and should stay that way.  If the power two break away, I want to see The Big versus the SEC in the playoffs - not some AFC/NFC thing.  That's college football.  To me of course.

 

The less we resemble the NFL the better.

[Jon Joseph]

A B1G Blue Blue Chip "buddy."

 

Could Michigan win another national championship? The Blue-Chip Ratio tells us the Wolverines have a shot

WWW.MAIZENBREW.COM

---

Michigan’s BCR shows the team still has more four-star players than three-star and below on the roster

 

Hmmmmmmmmmm?

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/28/2024 at 6:05 AM, Mike West said:

My dear friend Mr. FishDuck ,

 

I've been for the Demise of the PAC12 since before USC left.

 

I have already listed EVERY SEC and B1G marquee matchups for the season (ACC and Big 12 pivotal games too).  My real question is will Oklahoma State fans?  Will Pittsburgh fans?

 

I'm quite certain Duck Nation would lament the landscape had we gone to the Big 12, or worse accepted that ridiculous streaming offer. 

 

I'm concerned CFB going to try to compete with the NFL.  Bad career move ( my opinion of course).  That would reflect in the next contract.  

 

 

Power for the sake of power is never good.  I don't mind the Power 2 dictating terms.  I just don't want to see the sport change so radically the fans lose interest.  

 

I don't lament the changes, I just believe CFB is a distinct product and should stay that way.  If the power two break away, I want to see The Big versus the SEC in the playoffs - not some AFC/NFC thing.  That's college football.  To me of course.

 

The less we resemble the NFL the better.

Mike, I feel your angst. But IMO it is inevitable that the wheat, successful teams that invest large amounts on football will separate from the chaff. The wheat draws 2M+ eyeballs, at least, for every game.

 

I too am wary of the NFL; however, if the NFL added 8 teams to arrive at 40, would the product improve? I don't think so.

 

How many 'wasteland weekends' do we have in CFB? Weekends where there are zero, one, or two top-25 matchups. Oklahoma, Texas to the SEC, Oregon, UCLA, USC, and UW to the B1G will only consolidate the quality and improve the competition. 

 

Do OK State fans want to see the Cowboys plastered by the Longhorns as was the case last season? The Cowboys have a chance against the Jayhawks, but would likely lose to Texas 90% of the time. Across the nation, will more fans tune in to watch Texas play OK State or Texas play Georgia?

 

The more successful brands will earn a larger share of revenue as we have seen with the Power 2 bringing in the majority of the playoff dough. Players on elite Power 2 teams will earn more money via NIL and direct payment, than a Cal player taking the field against Wake Forest.

 

The NCAA lost its broadcast monopoly in the 1980s. I'm surprised it has taken this long for the marketplace to arrive at a Power 2. 

 

I always enjoy your takes my friend. 

[Mike West]

On 6/28/2024 at 9:55 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Mike, I feel your angst. But IMO it is inevitable that the wheat, successful teams that invest large amounts on football will separate from the chaff. The wheat draws 2M+ eyeballs, at least, for every game.

 

I too am wary of the NFL; however, if the NFL added 8 teams to arrive at 40, would the product improve? I don't think so.

 

How many 'wasteland weekends' do we have in CFB? Weekends where there are zero, one, or two top-25 matchups. Oklahoma, Texas to the SEC, Oregon, UCLA, USC, and UW to the B1G will only consolidate the quality and improve the competition. 

 

Do OK State fans want to see the Cowboys plastered by the Longhorns as was the case last season? The Cowboys have a chance against the Jayhawks, but would likely lose to Texas 90% of the time. Across the nation, will more fans tune in to watch Texas play OK State or Texas play Georgia?

 

The more successful brands will earn a larger share of revenue as we have seen with the Power 2 bringing in the majority of the playoff dough. Players on elite Power 2 teams will earn more money via NIL and direct payment, than a Cal player taking the field against Wake Forest.

 

The NCAA lost its broadcast monopoly in the 1980s. I'm surprised it has taken this long for the marketplace to arrive at a Power 2. 

 

I always enjoy your takes my friend. 

Jon,

 

 

My greatest hope is that if the P2 separate, it's done gradually enough that the majority of college fans will get used to a 2 or 3 loss Alabama or Georgia (SEC fans) because the quality of games are so awesome that 10 million fans are watching those games every week.

 

I agree, the non conference schedules are a joke now.  At least this year the elite have to show who they are during the season instead of being exposed in the post season (Michigan is a prime example of that- I didn't take them seriously until they smacked Nebraska, knew they'd beat Ohio State, but I was impressed when they took the game from Alabama in the Rose Bowl- that should not be the case).