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Pac-2 Merger With Mountain West In Jeopardy?

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The Beavs and the Cougs may have a war-chest of money at their disposal; but to spend on what if nobody wants them? Could their public desire to join a flagging ACC or an expanded Big 12 have given doubt to the presidents of their borrowed conference about their commitment? 

 

Or do they just plain have no meaningful value?

 

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

Washington State and Oregon State might be in big trouble when it comes to future plans.

 

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Since they can kick the can to 2026 there is no reason for them to worry. I expect the ACC to become "The Conference of Leftovers" by then and would probably be willing to bring them into the fold. Not ideal for travel but 4 west coast teams could form a pod to mitigate that.

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The "war chest", while mostly real (and completely unearned) really only permits the PIG2 to quasi-pretend to be P4 teams for 2 years. If they wanted to maximize their funds they should have bought their way into the B12 when the iron was hot, immediately.

 

The longer they wait, the less value they bring. I personally think the ship has sailed, but if their fans somehow get satisfaction for 2 years of being able to say they have a P4 budget, I guess that awesome for them...somehow.

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Washington State, Oregon State Reportedly In Serious Trouble

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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"It's becoming clear the Mountain West Conference doesn't necessarily

need or even want the Beavers and Cougars on a full-time membership basis."

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 7/16/2024 at 12:27 PM, Solar said:

Since they can kick the can to 2026 there is no reason for them to worry. I expect the ACC to become "The Conference of Leftovers" by then and would probably be willing to bring them into the fold. Not ideal for travel but 4 west coast teams could form a pod to mitigate that.

Just like the Big 12 before Texas and Oklahoma left, the ACC is only two (maybe three) teams from being a cinferyif left overs. 

 

The Big 12 has embraced their conference of left overs branding and has literally expanded it.

 

OSU and WSU both would prefer to join a P4 over a rebuild. Even they know a rebuild won't help them in the long run. 

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How long before the Pig-2 end up paying the Mountain West 

entrance fees to join that G5 conference?

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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Both teams, but especially Beavis, are operating under the "Titanic mentality." They really do believe that the conference (in name only) is simply too big to sink. As time passes this ship will only continue to take on more water. All the while, the presidents and athletic directors exude confidence to the fanbase that they'll soon be reforming the Pac-12 or joining their former brethren in a power conference

 

They'll only be convinced of the truth after time has run out in 2026; after having exhausted all the funds that they stole, are told a resounding NO by the MWC and other mid-major conferences. A new schedule of Big Sky and NAIA opponents is then revealed as the killing blow.

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Bottom line is that nobody NEEDS them. Not only do they have a small brand and audience, but they are geographically located so far away from major conferences that the hassle factor and travel costs associated with adding them are not worth it, IMHO.

 

When even the Mountain West says, "pass,"....

 

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Ouch!

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Mr. FishDuck

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Any shot at remaining justified over the extortion of the Pac-10 was lost when the Pac-2 agreed to a MW scheduling deal that added $10M to the exit fee of a MW team joining the Pac-2. 

 

"We are going to rebuild the Pac-12 (so what's another $10M more or less for each newbie?")

 

Their actions and not their words said: We are going to spend the money we shook out of the Pac-10's pockets like a bully stealing a kid's lunch money and if we are still P4 kryptonite when the dough disappears, we'll slither out way into the MW."

 

These two are not Robin Hood, they're the hoods who ripped off the dimwits 'managing' the Pac-10. Free-riders on the back of Pac-12 teams that invested more in athletics and had more success in the bully pulpit. 

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Interesting thought...how much would they add to the MW if they joined?

Mr. FishDuck

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On 7/16/2024 at 7:58 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Interesting thought...how much would they add to the MW if they joined?

 

Now that Puddles is in a conference with a team in Soprano country, how about: STUGOTS!

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How much would they add in media value to Mt. West?

 

The addition of Oregon State and Washington State would mean only a 10% to 15% increase in the current Mountain West deal, according to one veteran industry source with experience in television negotiations.  "I don't think it will be that much," countered Jim Williams, Emmy-winning sports media consultant. "I would think more like 10 [percent]. Fifteen percent is way too much." 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/why-mountain-west-interest-in-long-term-relationship-with-oregon-state-washington-state-may-be-waning/ar-BB1q1CaG

 

More at that link.  Doesn't need to be said I suppose, but some said USC/UCLA was 35-40 percent of Pac12 media value.  Now, take out UW and UO....say conservatively 20 percent.  That would leave 40-45 percent split among the other 8 programs.   What do you think the media split of that 40-45 would be?   Cal/Stanford, ASU, Utah, UA, Colorado...then OSU/WSU.  Combined, the latter two may not have been 10 percent of the Pac12?

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On 7/16/2024 at 9:45 PM, HDuck said:

but some said USC/UCLA was 35-40 percent of Pac12 media value.

That seems high to me. 

 

Sure the LA market is big. When USC is good I think they were a major chunk of the Pac-12 market but there are a lot of fair whether USC fans.

 

All you have to do is watch basically any time Oregon came into LA and kicked their butt to see the fans streaming out of the stadium long before the game was over. 

 

As for UCLA, they have worked really hard to pack the bottom section of the Rose Bowl and prayed the camera didn't pan up... Because when it did all you saw was an empty stadium. 

 

But realignment is about media markets, branding and pretty much nothing else. 

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Truth is nobody wanted them last year, nobody wants them this year. They don't have the ability to buy their way into the P4 like SMU. They don't have the geographic, academic, or history to be invited by even the far lesser of the 2 of the P4.

 

I mean it's gone from a bad joke to just pathetic. That media day was like two old playboy cover girls at a convention looking for the attention they received 30 years ago. Except Beavis and Coogler were never cover material. Now it's like please cover yourself up honey. Here's some hot tea and a blanket.

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On 7/17/2024 at 5:14 AM, Duckley Palace said:

That media day was like two old playboy cover girls at a convention looking for the attention they received 30 years ago.

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Mr. FishDuck

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USC/UCLA 35-40 percent?

 

That was widely discussed back in 2022 when the escape was announced.   It is based on the LA Market.  If UCLA was located in Bakersfield the number would not be that high.

 

 

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However, in Bakersfield, the Bruins would have an on-campus stadium (and zero CBB titles.)

 

I don't believe Bill Walton would sign up to play in an ultimate Truck Stop town. 😍

 

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The only thing that makes sense to me is if the pac 2 are waiting for Cal and Furd to come back after the ACC implodes.

 

After that add Tulane, SMU, SD St and maybe UNLV and hope someone like UCLA or Utah or ASU comes back. Seems like too many ifs to hang your hat on. 
 

I think they should just join the Mountain West and move on.

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On 7/17/2024 at 10:37 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

The only thing that makes sense to me is if the pac 2 are waiting for Cal and Furd to come back after the ACC implodes.

 

After that add Tulane, SMU, SD St and maybe UNLV and hope someone like UCLA or Utah or ASU comes back. Seems like too many ifs to hang your hat on. 
 

I think they should just join the Mountain West and move on.

Lot of ifs to be sure.
 

I don’t  think the ACC will implode anytime soon. Even if by some miracle the ACC loses FSU, Clemson, and UNC before 2026…what remains in the ACC would still be more attractive than anything the PIG2 could offer. I think the ACC would add East Carolina, App State, etc. before adding Corvallis and Pullman.
 

I also don’t think anyone is leaving the B12 that they just joined with the hope that the PAC could get an okay tv deal. Travel for B12 new members really isn’t made any easier going back to some funky form of the PAC.

 

The PIG2 should be a bit concerned about the MWC getting annoyed. At some point they might be like, hey, these two really aren’t adding anything, and they’re actually arrogant. Why do we want them?
 

The original PIG2 carrot was the potential of being able to offer playoff access as a P5, without that, what are they bringing to the table besides misplaced arrogance?

Edited by JabbaNoBargain
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