Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted November 14 The Playoff Committee's post-week 11 rankings do not mirror ESPN's post-week 11 Strength of Record Rankings (SOR.) Several of this week's rankings defy logic. No. 7 Tennessee was also No. 7 last week. The Vols easily defeated Mississippi State last Saturday as Indiana struggled to defeat an average Michigan team and BYU defeated an average, or worse Utah team by one point. Indiana moved up to No. 5 and BYU moved up to No. 6. Why should Tennessee be jumped by these two teams? According to PO committee chair Warde Manuel, moving up the Hoosiers and BYU was largely based on the 'Eye Test.' In other words, 'We think we probably screwed up last week and wanted to correct things this week.' What better proof does anyone need? This is a subjective exercise by thirteen folks who are not obligated to justify their reasoning. Thirteen people who refuse to disclose the metrics they use when on December 8th they will be making decisions involving multi-millions of dollars. The following is a re-ranking using SOR. Not much would change in the top 13 teams plus G5 qualifier Boise State but the order would be far different and somewhat surprising. The number to the left of a team is the team's SOR with the PO ranking to the right. I have also included ESPN's Strength of Schedule (SOS) updated rankings. SOR CT Rank SOS 1. OREGON 1 51 2. BYU 6 54 3. GEORGIA 12 1 4. OHIO STATE 2 26 5. PENN STATE 4 32 6. INDIANA 5 100 7. MIAMI 9 38 8. ALABAMA 10 11 9. TENNESSEE 7 35 10. TEXAS 3 56 11. TEXAS A+M 15 21 12. Ole MISS 11 23 13. NOTRE DAME 8 73 16. BOISE STATE 13 68 Texas at No. 3 in the PO rankings with an SOS of 56 and a Georgia team that beat down Texas in Austin at No. 12 with the No.1 SOS by any test other than the 'Trust Us, We're Experts Eye Test' is simply wrong. You can bet that the final PO rankings on 12/8 and the PO seeding will be subject to far more criticism than my simple exercise. Especially if a far more deserving Georgia finishes with two losses with Tennessee, U Mass , and Georgia Tech left to play, and Notre Dame finishes with one loss, to an average G5 opponent at home, with wins over UVA, Army ranked No. 24 with the 133 SOS, and USC left to be played. The Committee's Day of Infamy will occur on December 8th and not the 7th. 3 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 2 Share Posted November 14 (edited) Interesting to see that perspective. I'm not feeling the controversy myself overall. Both the ACC and B12 are hoping to get 2 in, but that will only happen if things break just right. Will anyone be shocked if it's: SEC - 4 or 5 B1G - 3 or 4 B12 - 1 ACC - 1 ND - 1 G5 - 1 That's been my expectation since they first announced expanding to 12. Edited November 14 by JabbaNoBargain 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 3 Share Posted November 14 On 11/14/2024 at 4:30 PM, JabbaNoBargain said: Interesting to see that perspective. I'm not feeling the controversy myself overall. Both the ACC and B12 are hoping to get 2 in, but that will only happen if things break just right. Will anyone be shocked if it's: SEC - 4 or 5 B1G - 3 or 4 B12 - 1 ACC - 1 ND - 1 G5 - 1 That's been my expectation since they first announced expanding to 12. Thanks, Jabbar. Spot on after Week 11's rankings. I see 4 each for the Power 2. 1 for the ACC, B12, Independents (not Wazzu or the Beavers) and the G5. If Ohio State blows out Indiana, it could be 5 for the SEC and 3 for the B1G. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 4 Share Posted November 14 (edited) On 11/14/2024 at 1:44 PM, Jon Joseph said: Thanks, Jabbar. Spot on after Week 11's rankings. I see 4 each for the Power 2. 1 for the ACC, B12, Independents (not Wazzu or the Beavers) and the G5. If Ohio State blows out Indiana, it could be 5 for the SEC and 3 for the B1G. It could have been different (more interesting?) if the B12 and ACC didn’t collectively fall on their faces. Specifically, FSU, Utah, and Okie State completely failing was huge in this not being more controversial. Those 3 teams were all considered strong contenders to make the playoff and are a combined 2-19 in conference play. Nice timing guys! Edited November 14 by JabbaNoBargain 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikethehiker No. 5 Share Posted November 14 This is so exhausting every year trying to compare things that are not equal. Even after expanding to 12 teams (something unheard of a decade ago), some teams will still feel left out. As a sports fan purist, we should all want arbitration and committees removed from the process and let everything be decided on the field. It requires more conferences with fewer members, so each team plays the entire conference. This year, we are looking at 3rd, 4th, and 5th tie breakers because there's not enough head to head competition. Then every conference sends their champion to the playoff or maybe their champion and the runner-up. Then there is never a doubt what a team needs to accomplish in order to make the playoff. No comparing the incomparable, no committees, no excuses. That's my sports utopia. 2 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikethehiker No. 6 Share Posted November 14 On 11/14/2024 at 1:47 PM, JabbaNoBargain said: It could have been different (more interesting?) if the B12 and ACC didn’t collectively fall on their faces. Specifically, FSU, Utah, and Okie State completely failing was huge in this not being more controversial. Those 3 teams were all considered strong contenders to make the playoff and are a combined 2-19 in conference play. Nice timing guys! Such a great point. There could have and should have easily been two teams each from the ACC and B12 finishing 13-0 and 12-1 and even a third 11-1 team because they don't play each other (just like the B1G). Notre Dame should have been 12-0 with an 11-1 Army. 11-1 Washington State? How many one loss teams do you throw out in favor of two and three loss SEC teams? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 7 Share Posted November 15 On 11/14/2024 at 3:06 PM, mikethehiker said: It requires more conferences with fewer members, so each team plays the entire conference. This year, we are looking at 3rd, 4th, and 5th tie breakers because there's not enough head to head competition. Then every conference sends their champion to the playoff or maybe their champion and the runner-up. Then there is never a doubt what a team needs to accomplish in order to make the playoff. No comparing the incomparable, no committees, no excuses. The "NFL-Lite" comparison is derogatory to a lot of fans who want to stay separate from the pro's. But with NIL and the portal it's getting close. The Playoff's work fine in the NFL because there is uniformity, alas that will never exist in college. We're stuck. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MicroBurst61 No. 8 Share Posted November 15 On 11/14/2024 at 12:25 PM, Jon Joseph said: Thirteen people who refuse to disclose the metrics they use when on December 8th they will be making decisions involving multi-millions of dollars. By design I am sure. The "owners" of those multi-millions of dollars want to make sure the "playoffs" maximize, those multi-millions of dollars. By making sure the "playoffs" closely resemble the business model/predictor that "promises" the maximum return on those multi-millions of dollars. In order to pay-out the multi-millions of dollars to television contracts promised to all those football conferences for their football products "for sale" for multi-millions of dollars. In order to guarantee to add multi-millions of dollars, to their already rather large amounts of multi-millions of dollars. You know. Just like the Mom & Pop store down the road! 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 9 Share Posted November 15 Eight SEC teams could finish with 2 losses, 90% of SEC fans would have no problem having all of them in the Playoff. [And the other 10% would be drawn and quartered by executioner Pawalll. ] Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitnessczar No. 10 Share Posted November 15 I am curious where you got your SOS. Because I would like to know their metrics. Yesterday I spent way too much time looking at various strength of schedule metrics. One major issue is if they update weekly or are from the beliefs at the beginning of the year. Most I looked at gave ni reasoning to how they got there. Georgia had a range of 1 to 23. Indiana 56 to 100. And from what I have read Georgia had a SOS of 100 when the first rankings came out last year. And nobody whined because it was Georgia. I have not been able to verify their SOS from last year though. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 11 Share Posted November 15 Notre Dame is in the hunt because they draw too many eyeballs to ignore. They have the worse loss of all the "contenders". Including those as far down as #20. Notre Dame should be forced into at least the ACC or the B1G if they want to be in the playoffs. Five SEC teams deserve a berth ahead of ND. Except A&M. We ALL know ND would have at least three losses right now of they played in the SEC. Same with the B1G. Expand to 14 already, guarantee the ACC and Big 12 two berths, and the SEC and B1G four each, and absolutely give the SEC and B1G champs a first round bye. That proposal made total sense when it was proposed, despite it's unpopularity. It preserves the structure of College Football and keeps it from resembling the NFL. We all know the SEC and the B1G will play for the title every year anyway, so why the drama? The "lesser" conferences and ND get some playoff money and people can root for the underdog knowing they'll get obliterated (with an outside chance of an upset once a decade). This charade is an insult to avid fans. Georgia has played the toughest schedule by far, and though they should defeat Tennessee, they're getting insulted for losing twice (to two of the best contenders at that). Tennessee lost to Arkansas, Texas hasn't played anybody but Georgia, and Bama lost to Vandy. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois. That should be an automatic disqualifier since they've played a padded schedule all year. Illinois, who did beat Michigan, whom I think would beat Notre Dame, has to beat Ohio State seal a spot in the playoffs. Despite a tougher schedule than Notre Dame. I will be very pissed if Notre Dame makes the playoffs. They are in the discussion because controversy sells. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeotechDuck No. 12 Share Posted November 15 (edited) There are so many issues, I am not even sure where to start; Unbalanced schedules, subjective SOS rankings, different number of conference games, etc. I still can't understand why we don't have a NET ranking like hoops. If you lose to Northern Illinois (Q4) that should have a significant impact on your chances. Also, a team like Texas that has only one conference win against a team with a winning record (Vandy) should be reflected in the rankings. Schedule should matter. Edited November 15 by GeotechDuck 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 13 Share Posted November 15 On 11/14/2024 at 7:18 PM, Mike West said: Despite a tougher schedule than Notre Dame. I'll disagree about the schedule strength. Notre Dame has played 6 teams with winning records, A & M, NIU, Miami of Ohio, Louisville, Ga. Tech & Navy. Indiana has played 1, Nebraska. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeotechDuck No. 14 Share Posted November 15 (edited) On 11/15/2024 at 5:54 AM, 30Duck said: I'll disagree about the schedule strength. Notre Dame has played 6 teams with winning records, A & M, NIU, Miami of Ohio, Louisville, Ga. Tech & Navy. Indiana has played 1, Nebraska. I will counter with the fact that ND essentially plays 4 G5 teams. Texas IMO is the biggest offender. They have only beat 1 conference team with a winning record and they got pounded by Georgia. How are they sitting at No. 3? Where I have an issue is with the thought process that Indiana is out of they lose to tOSU, but Texas can be No. 3 with essentially the same crap schedule as Indiana AND with a loss to the only ranked team they played. Edited November 15 by GeotechDuck 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 15 Share Posted November 15 (edited) On 11/15/2024 at 6:25 AM, GeotechDuck said: Texas IMO is the biggest offender. Take out the Go5 games, it's still ND, 3 to 1. As the saying goes, "Everything is BIGGER in Texas, and the Committee is going to tell us that "Texas is Baaack" whether they are or not. Every week Cowherd tells us that Texas has the most talented roster. Saban spent the whole GameDay diagraming the plays that Texas would run all over Georgia with. Cowherd also says to "take Wisky & the points." Edited November 15 by 30Duck 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 16 Share Posted November 15 On 11/15/2024 at 6:25 AM, GeotechDuck said: Where I have an issue is with the thought process that Indiana is out of they lose to tOSU, but Texas can be No. 3 with essentially the same crap schedule as Indiana AND with a loss to the only ranked team they played. An irrefutable statement. And Indiana's wins, with exception of common opponent Michigan were more dominant. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 17 Share Posted November 15 On 11/14/2024 at 9:10 PM, Fitnessczar said: I am curious where you got your SOS. Because I would like to know their metrics. Yesterday I spent way too much time looking at various strength of schedule metrics. One major issue is if they update weekly or are from the beliefs at the beginning of the year. Most I looked at gave no reasoning to how they got there. Georgia had a range of 1 to 23. Indiana 56 to 100. And from what I have read Georgia had a SOS of 100 when the first rankings came out last year. And nobody whined because it was Georgia. I have not been able to verify their SOS from last year though. Excellent question. One I will answer even if the Committee refuses to do so. Both SOR and SOS come from ESPN. Frankly, I don't care what algorithms the Committee uses, I just want to know that metrics trump the Eye Test and what those metrics are. This is not a groundbreaking request. The CBB Committee discloses all of the metrics used in evaluation and seeding. Georgia dropping from No. 3 to No. 12 is a case of recency bias. Georgia looked awful versus Ole Miss but Georgia looked invincible when it defeated current No. 3 Texas in Austin. UGA defeats No. 7 Tennessee in Athens Saturday to score 29 home wins in a row, and how high will the Vols fall and Georgia climb? If the Committee is going to use final champ game results, Notre Dame is bulletproof and the losers of these games could be screwed. And if the losers are screwed the reasoning being the hosing will be, 'Trust Us.' In fairness, the Rankings weekly reality show only needs to happen because ESPN needs the dues. Like the CBB Committee releases its current top 16 shortly before the final ranking, the CFB Committee should do the same and not be asked to do more. Also, 2024 and 2025's jury-rigged format does not help the Committee's cause. Let the sunshine in and Destroy Wisconsin at Night! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 18 Share Posted November 15 On 11/15/2024 at 6:50 AM, Solar said: An irrefutable statement. And Indiana's wins, with exception of common opponent Michigan were more dominant. Yes, Indiana was dominant over teams with a combined 35-48 record, against 5-5 Michigan they struggled. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 19 Share Posted November 15 A correction and an apology to the Athens Dawgs. A win 'Tween the Hedges on Saturday over Tennessee will be UGA's 29th home win in a row. GO YOU HAIRY DAWGS! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 20 Share Posted November 15 A more detailed and in-depth look at the Week 11 PO rankings. College Football Playoff blind resume breakdown: Hide the logos. Who has a better case? WWW.NYTIMES.COM To truly evaluate these teams, it makes sense to remove conference affiliations and logos and just examine what they've done so far. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 21 Share Posted November 15 (edited) On 11/14/2024 at 7:23 PM, GeotechDuck said: I still can't understand why we don't have a NET ranking like hoops. If you lose to Northern Illinois (Q4) that should have a significant impact on your chances. Saban thinks so too: “On the big picture side of it, I just don’t think that people are taking enough account into what is your strength of schedule? Who did you play? Who did you beat? Who did you lose to?” Saban said on The Pat McAfee Show on Friday. “This is the fifth Top 20 team that Georgia has played. Texas played one and they got beat by ’em. Which was Georgia. And we could go through every team but I think it’s not just ‘I’m undefeated’ or ‘I lost one game,’ it’s ‘Who did you lose to? Who did you play? Who did you beat?’ I like the way they do it in basketball. They’ve got this RPI rating or whatever they call it and you beat so many good teams, that means something. Well we need to do that in football and not just look at the record.” Edited November 15 by 30Duck 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 22 Share Posted November 16 (edited) On 11/15/2024 at 5:54 AM, 30Duck said: I'll disagree about the schedule strength. Notre Dame has played 6 teams with winning records, A & M, NIU, Miami of Ohio, Louisville, Ga. Tech & Navy. Indiana has played 1, Nebraska. Well normally one could say Notre Dame would have defeated everyone on Indiana's schedule... But they lost to Northern Illinois. So, I'm not sure that's true. It would be interesting to see A&M face the Irish now since Notre Dame is playing well. They could actually win that game again. Indiana gets its spotlight next week. As for the records, we've seen the same from the Irish for years...beat teams with winning records in the regular season, lose to a team of the same caliber in the post season. Blowout losses to elite teams.. Yep, it's eyeballs in my opinion. Four post season losses in the last five. The win against "powerhouse" South Carolina. We know how this ends. Indiana is unfortunately playing for their playoff berth next week because their ' team up north' did an awesome job of marketing itself into blue blood status in the 1930s. Edited November 16 by Mike West 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
