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Charles Fischer

Stewart Mandel: "No Question, Oregon's Route is Brutal"

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Below is what Stewart Mandel wrote about Oregon's Seeding in the Playoff:

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Question: Did the Ducks get an absolutely brutal route to the final, or is that just me? It seems like a clear flaw that they have such a brutal path but are the No. 1 seed. — Asher S.

 

SM: No question, No. 1 seed Oregon got the tougher side of the bracket. And for that you can blame what I believe to be the only notable flaw in the format: Manipulating the seedings to reward conference champs with byes.

 

Oregon drew the winner of an 8 vs. 9 matchup of Ohio State–Tennessee, but those teams are ranked No. 6 and No. 7 by the committee. If the seedings matched the rankings, the Ducks would get the winner of Indiana–Boise State, which I’m sure they’d prefer. Then it would be the winner of No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Notre Dame in the semifinal.

 

Whereas currently, they could get No. 3 Texas.

 

Meanwhile, No. 2 Georgia’s three possible semifinal opponents are the No. 6 (Penn State), No. 9 (Boise State) and No. 11 (SMU) teams in the country. That’s bizarre. In the basketball tournament, the No. 2 seed would play either the No. 3 (in this case Texas), No. 6 and No. 11 teams.

 

So not only does this format allow teams ranked well below No. 4, like Boise and Arizona State, to earn a bye, but also the ripple effect messes with the integrity of the bracket.

 

I don’t think they should run out and change anything after one season of data, but my guess is the current format doesn’t make it to Year 3, when the new CFP contract begins. But of course, the Big Ten and SEC will try to strong-arm their way to something much worse. Like a 14-team tournament where each of their leagues gets four automatic berths and their champs get the only two byes. This, of course, would be far more destructive to the CFP’s credibility than whether Boise State is the No. 3 or No. 4 seed.

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Let's see, would I prefer the winner of Indiana-Boise State, or the current Tennessee-Ohio State?  Or later get the winner of Notre Dame-Penn State or the current probable Texas?

 

No brainer.

 

Hosed again.  Now nobody did not MEAN to hose us...but the fact remains that the loser of the B1G Championship game has a much easier bracket than the No. 1 Seed and that is WRONG.

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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My solution?

 

Go to 16 teams with NO BYES.  It is four weeks with No. 1 playing No. 16 in week one, and the they play No. 8, then No. 4 and then  No. 2.  You know, like a normal bracket.

 

Conference champions are automatically in the Playoff, but all are seeded with no byes or special privileges.  So if a team who is No. 22 wins the conference championship via an upset or weird tiebreaker rules, then that team would be seeded No. 16 in the Playoff, but not given a bye or anything.

 

And with 16 teams--nobody who could actually win the 'Natty gets left out.  Although a home game on December 20th at Autzen would be chilly and wet!

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 12/13/2024 at 11:09 AM, Charles Fischer said:

My solution?

 

Go to 16 teams with NO BYES.  It is four weeks with No. 1 playing No. 16 in week one, and the they play No. 8, then No. 4 and then  No. 2.  You know, like a normal bracket.

 

Conference champions are automatically in the Playoff, but all are seeded with no byes or special privileges.  So if a team who is No. 22 wins the conference championship via an upset or weird tiebreaker rules, then that team would be seeded No. 16 in the Playoff, but not given a bye or anything.

 

And with 16 teams--nobody who could actually win the 'Natty gets left out.  Although a home game on December 20th at Autzen would be chilly and wet!

 

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Yup, I've always thought the CFP should have expanded to either 8 or 16 teams.  12 was just a weird and awkward number to me.

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Personally I like the 12 team. But what I do not like is the conference champions get automatic byes. It should be more like march madness where conference champions get guaranteed entry into the field, but seeding is still decided by rankings. Top 4 overall ranked teams get a bye in the first round. 

 

 

Also - after really looking at the brackets I don't think the Ducks got as screwed as everyone is making it out to be. Sure osu2 and Tenn are big brands they aren't really playing great football right now. And when I look at the whole bracket Texas is by far the most overrated and overhyped team in the Country. Who have they played and beat that is actually a good football team? They have played a down Georgia team twice and lost both times. Just because they are ranked high doesn't mean they are an actual good football team. 

Edited by QuackyQuack
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This ESPN SEC-Centric Extravaganza is a Hose-Job by Design. 

 

SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey was somewhat hoist on his own, Design By Greg petard, SMU in over Bama 👍, but 5 of the 7 playoff bowl game sites in Dixie in 2024 and 2025 makes the format SEC-centric even with 3 SEC teams in the field. 

 

And, although I opined otherwise, I am not certain that in the 3rd round OBD would have to play Texas in Dallas, instead of in Miami. 

 

The 16 team solution with teams seeded as ranked works. As would a 14-team field, Oregon and UW would have 1st round byes and then Oregon would play the lowest remaining seed in Eugene with Georgia playing the 2nd lowest remaining seed in Athens. 

 

Home fans of the top two teams would be rewarded with at least one home game and the top 2 teams would be rewarded with a 3 game run and not 4 games, to a title. 

 

With the NFL PO and the NCAA Football Tournamnet formats as a guide, how did this get so screwed up? Follow the Disney/ESPN/TNT $. The format needs to be TNTed ASAP. 😍

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Think of it this way. If we win out we will be at 15-0 and will have played through an incredibly tough, lopsided bracket, something that may never be seen again.

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Our Man Danno is Ranked 2nd Best of the PO Coaches. Get Smart and Flip 1+2 on 1/20/25!

 

 

WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

Stacking up the coaches as we prepare for the first 12-team College Football Playoff event

 

Will Dabo embarrass Sark? Can Day overcome his home crowd? Can Jimmy Franklin win a B1G game? Will Cigarettes smoke the Catholics? 

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My fear is that in a sixteen team playoff, the winner will not be the best team, but the luckiest (in avoiding injury). 

 

A March Madness approach does not work, in my view, with a sport as tough on the human body as football. 

 

 

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On 12/13/2024 at 2:04 PM, Triphibius said:

My fear is that in a sixteen team playoff, the winner will not be the best team, but the luckiest (in avoiding injury). 

 

A March Madness approach does not work, in my view, with a sport as tough on the human body as football. 

A 12 team would have worked, if not for the appeasement of the Commish's to award the Automatic Byes to the conference champs. Someone earlier noted that in the ironically called "March Madness" format, CC's are in, but not necessarily as a top seed.

 

The CFP format completely devalues what Oregon accomplished this season. They are clearly No.1, their path to the championship should reflect that.

 

Depth should be a part of what it takes to be the champion, barring a catastrophic injury, the best team will emerge. 

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On 12/13/2024 at 5:04 PM, Triphibius said:

My fear is that in a sixteen team playoff, the winner will not be the best team, but the luckiest (in avoiding injury). 

 

A March Madness approach does not work, in my view, with a sport as tough on the human body as football. 

 

 

This is why DL said he was recruiting depth. He knew from his time in the SEC that a strong starting lineup could only take you through the first month or two of the regular season.

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No question, depth is good to have regardless what the format is. 

 

However, some players are special talents whose skills cannot be replicated, even by highly capable substitutes (for example, Tez Johnson). 

 

Football is a rough game, and risk is part of the equation, but the longer the playoff continues, the greater the odds that injuries will determine the outcome. 

 

I have probably said enough. Thanks for engaging on my point. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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One thing is sure. No matter how many teams make the playoffs they will never get it correct. 

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They didn’t know who would get the number one seed when this format was agreed to prior to the season taking place, easily could have been an SEC team.

 

Here’s how I’d set it up. 
 

12 teams is fine IMO, just ditch the top 4 conference champs getting a bye and go with seeding as ranked, top 4 still get the bye. Hold the first round. After the first round, #1 seed gets to pick who it wants to play (from the first round winners) and the venue. Then #2 picks, etc.

 

IMG_1736.gif.ea58008170f9129fb4f0f48544f72d8d.gif

Edited by JabbaNoBargain
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On 12/13/2024 at 2:04 PM, Triphibius said:

My fear is that in a sixteen team playoff, the winner will not be the best team, but the luckiest (in avoiding injury). 

 

A March Madness approach does not work, in my view, with a sport as tough on the human body as football. 

 

On 12/13/2024 at 3:31 PM, Triphibius said:

Football is a rough game, and risk is part of the equation, but the longer the playoff continues, the greater the odds that injuries will determine the outcome.

Agree.  I think 16 or 17 games is too many for college football.

 

By the way I don't think OBD have the toughest road to the championship game.  osu2 and Tennessee do because they have a first round game and then have to play the best team in the entire playoff bracket. 

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This is what B1G Commissioner Tony Petitti's 14-team PO field would have been in 2024/25

 

Group A - 1. OREGON - Bye - OBD plays the lowest-ranked team remaining after the 1st round games. Game to be played in Eugene.

 

13. Miami at 4. Penn State

 

11. Alabama at 6. Ohio State

 

9. Boise State at 8. Indiana

 

Group B - 2. GEORGIA - Bye - UGA plays the 2nd lowest-ranked team remaining after the 1st round. Game to be played in Athens.

 

14. Ole Miss at 3. Texas

 

12. ASU at 5. Notre Dame

 

10. SMU at 7. Tennessee

 

5 SEC/ 4 B1G/ 2 ACC/ 1 B12, Independent, G5. Greg Sankey would be happy with this. 

 

The ranking used above is the Committee's final ranking. Under the aegis of the Power 2, a G5 team is in but Boise would be ranked 14th. The Committee if it exists, would be far less opaque and reveal its metrics like the CBB Committee.

 

Like the CBB, there should be one early release of the top 16 teams with no comment and a final release with the Committee Chair explaining variances between the metrics used and the ranking. This will not happen with ESPN 'owning' the PO through the 2031-32 season. 

 

Fans of the two top-rated teams would be able to attend a game on campus.

 

I'm far from certain of what the PO format will be in 2026 but I am certain it will not look like this season's hideous hodge-podge. 

 

Vacate the Vols! Blister the Bucks!

 

 

 

 

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On 12/14/2024 at 7:41 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I'm far from certain of what the PO format will be in 2026 but I am certain it will not look like this season's hideous hodge-podge. 

It most likely will be a new "hideous hodge-podge as long as $$$ is the ultimate goal rather than finding a champion. 

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Want to Play Bucks or Vols?

 

 

WWW.ON3.COM

The Oregon Ducks have been thrown into a situation where they'll play one of two opponents in the Rose Bowl.

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The Joel Klatt Playoff Fix. I'd Add and Lose Gus Johnson!

 

 

WWW.FOXSPORTS.COM

Oregon's path to winning the national championship showed the biggest flaw with the College Football Playoff field. FOX Sports' Joel Klatt offers his plan to fix the CFP.

 

Good luck turning scheduling over to a committee 😁.

 

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This thread as been very interesting and entertaining to read. Absolutely love the posters who proposed.many of the common sense solutions that were available to those who created this mess.

 

I imagine a room full of men and women fighting for their own self interests. With Sankey just knowing his plan was the best as he manipulated the room.

 

In the end the SEC ended up with only 3 teams. Unlike the BIG, the top SEC teams didnt play that great to strengthen their dominant perception thru out the land.

 

What goes around comes around!

 

 

 

As for OBD's being hosed or the route brutal, well yes. 

 

However, its just 1 game. If the Ducks make it to the semis and championship round those 2 matches were going to be against some powerhouse teams.

 

I am just thankful a system is in place that gives us a shot. Now the Ducks just need to finish the job.

 

Once OBD's get past osu2 in the 2nd round then its was going to be very difficult anyways.

 

Go Ducks.......

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The reason the flaw exists is that they wanted first round byes for the top four conference champs and once you operate from that framework, the only thing that works is 12 teams.  And once you settle on a framework of seeding the next 8 by ranking (and an auto bid for champ #5) you inevitably land on some really bad outcomes. It's a perfect example of letting a focus on a particular structure destroy the objective/goal of the endeavor: determine the best team in CFP. 

 

I'm sure the top 4 bye structure was devised because it was the only way to get broad sign-off from the then P5 (and maybe silence legal action from the G5).  The mindless seeding?  On that they have zero excuse for not anticipating what has come to pass.

 

Seriously, these guys were really lazy or really didn't care.  All you had to do was to imagine a scenario where the top 4 seeds weren't the top 4 ranked teams (a highly probable outcome given historical final rankings).  You then use your system of mindlessly seeding teams. It would become very clear very quickly that method is utterly broken. How these people make as much money as they do is a total mystery to me.

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123 teams would be fine…had they reseeded after the first round

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On 12/14/2024 at 6:28 PM, Kleibs said:

123 teams would be fine…had they reseeded after the first round

The SEC could probably get 4 teams in that. 

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