Solar No. 1 Share Posted Tuesday at 04:21 PM Predicting the College Football Playoff: ESPN round-by-round predictions to the title - On3 WWW.ON3.COM ESPN has provided its projections for each team to reach the next round of the College Football Playoff, using the SP+. "What’s wildly interesting about the projections from the SP+ is how low the actual probabilities for any one team winning the title are. Oregon leads the way but has only a 20.4% chance to win it all." It's simple statistics: increasing the size of the playoff field increases the number of games that have to be played which increases the number of chances to lose. Think of it this way: During the BCS, if you were #1 or 2 in the country you had a 50% chance of winning it all, and #3 to everyone else had a zero percent chance. During the 4 team playoff if you were 1-4 you had a 25,% chance of winning the playoffs, and everyone 5 and lower had a zero percent chance. Now the #1 team in the nation that is favored can only muster 20% (statistically with out consideration of performance is 12.5%), while 11 others have some chance, and 13 and on have a zero % chance. Is the new system more fair? It depends what your rank is! Arizona State is saying heck yes! While we are looking back at the glory days of BCS saying if only things didn't change. Our odds of winning are not good. Think of how much of an underdog a one game 12-20% odds of winning is. Imagine being an Illini fan hoping you beat Oregon. That's the kind of odds we are up against to win it all. Enjoy every game we get! 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 2 Share Posted Tuesday at 05:09 PM And this is what's wrong with statistics. Whatever the odds are, I don't think it's Homer-speak to say that the probability of OBD winning the Natty are a lot higher than at least 8 of the other teams, and better than the other 3, The statistical percentages, without weighing in the relative strengths of the teams, is pointless. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar Author No. 3 Share Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM On 12/17/2024 at 9:09 AM, 30Duck said: And this is what's wrong with statistics. Whatever the odds are, I don't think it's Homer-speak to say that the probability of OBD winning the Natty are a lot higher than at least 8 of the other teams, and better than the other 3, The statistical percentages, without weighing in the relative strengths of the teams, is pointless. That's what article based on SP+ shows. 20% chance still sucks. I'd put our odds closer to a 35-40% chance, which is still in the more likely to lose than win the Natty range. That's my head talking. My heart feels like we have about a 70% chance. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 4 Share Posted Tuesday at 05:47 PM I'm thinking of the Olympics, the 100 meters. Usain Bolt statistically had the same chance of winning than any of the other racers. Of course that didn't take into account how much faster Bolt was, he'd be looking over his head at everybody else with 10 meters to go. The Ducks aren't Bolt, but they've separated themselves from the field. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar Author No. 5 Share Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM On 12/17/2024 at 9:47 AM, 30Duck said: I'm thinking of the Olympics, the 100 meters. Usain Bolt statistically had the same chance of winning than any of the other racers. Of course that didn't take into account how much faster Bolt was, he'd be looking over his head at everybody else with 10 meters to go. The Ducks aren't Bolt, but they've separated themselves from the field. Even moreso it's their consistency that has separated them from the field, which bodes well for having to win multiple tough games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUCKED No. 6 Share Posted Wednesday at 12:12 AM While we all hope that Oregon wins The Natty, I would surprised if it happens. Winning three straight games against against top competition, on a neutral field, is a monumental challenge. Could it happen? Absolutely. But I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. ** I would LOVE to be proven wrong. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 7 Share Posted Wednesday at 01:48 AM On 12/17/2024 at 4:12 PM, DUCKED said: While we all hope that Oregon wins The Natty, I would surprised if it happens. Winning three straight games against against top competition, on a neutral field, is a monumental challenge. Could it happen? Absolutely. But I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. It will be hard, but I don't see a team more likely to do it, especially not the 4 teams that will have to win 4 straight games. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoDuck No. 8 Share Posted Wednesday at 02:52 AM Somebody has to do it, though. The only way is to win 3-4 straight. Didn't ol' Russ used to say "why not us?" 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
1Ducker1 No. 9 Share Posted Wednesday at 05:00 AM The odds seem to as good or better than any other team. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandpa Duck No. 10 Share Posted Wednesday at 05:29 AM I first saw a 16 team bracket in 1948 at the OSAA basketball tournament at MacArthur Court. Since then I have seen as a spectator or played in as a competitor, mostly golf, well over 100 brackets. I have never known of a bracket to be “reseeded”. I cannot even conceive how that could fairly happen. The disagreements about who would be playing whom would make the current bracket controversy seem like child’s play. Hopefully someone smarter and more experienced than me will explain how this magical reseeding solution works. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittDuck No. 11 Share Posted Wednesday at 05:48 AM Regarding statistics and percentages, my ol’ dad used to say “Figures lie and liars figure.” I feel reasonably sure that OBD will be the last team standing come January 20. They have the depth, the balance, the bigs, and the playmakers. Our skill players line up well with any of the remaining competition. We also have Dan Lanning and one of the best coaching staffs in the CFP. However, according to the SEC writers, we might as well bless the SEC teams and just give it to them. No sense in playing, it is a waste of time. They feel the best B1G can’t hold the jock straps for the mighty SEC. What a bunch of hogwash! The only thing I would like better than beating SEC teams in each of our next 3 games would be to see the SEC have ZERO wins. Have their @$$es handed to them in each of their games. Go Ducks! Beat THEM! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUCKED No. 12 Share Posted Wednesday at 06:40 PM On 12/17/2024 at 9:29 PM, Grandpa Duck said: I first saw a 16 team bracket in 1948 at the OSAA basketball tournament at MacArthur Court. Since then I have seen as a spectator or played in as a competitor, mostly golf, well over 100 brackets. I have never known of a bracket to be “reseeded”. I cannot even conceive how that could fairly happen. The disagreements about who would be playing whom would make the current bracket controversy seem like child’s play. Hopefully someone smarter and more experienced than me will explain how this magical reseeding solution works. Agreed, but what needs to happen is the automatic top 4 seeding of conference champions must go away. That would negate the re-seeding discussion. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utki No. 13 Share Posted Wednesday at 09:26 PM The Ducks barely beat t/OSU at Autzen. So I think it is doubtful. But it would be super duper! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Sousa No. 14 Share Posted Wednesday at 09:45 PM Better than anyone else... and more than a million times better than the teams that didn't make the playoffs. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
