Rebuilding Oregon’s Offense for 2025: The Passing Game

[FishDuck Article]

Last week I wrote about how Oregon’s running offense needs to find an extra spark to generate more explosive plays. But the passing game also had its faults this season. It feels strange to pick apart a 13-1 season, but the reality is that the Oregon offense performed worse in 2024 than it did in 2023 as the team averaged ...

 

Rebuilding Oregon’s Offense for 2025: The Passing Game | FishDuck

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Last week I wrote about how Oregon’s running offense needs to find an extra spark to generate more explosive plays. But the passing game...

[Smith72]

David you continue to serve the OBD Forum with your excellent writing.  Thank you!

 

As you noted there are many parts to this offense and many things different from the year before.  A left handed QB takes longer to get used to.  Advantage Nix.  Receivers grow up with passes from right handers.  I can remember many dropped passes from Gabriel that should have been caught.

 

Next year we will have two good QBs who will be in their third year with Will Stein (3 for Novosad and 2 for Moore). Both Nix and Gabriel failed to see wide open receivers.  Playing quarterback is a difficult task.  The more time in a system will help both QBs.

 

Although the offensive line did settle in to a very good season, Gabriel had a lot of pressure during the season and his quick release saved a sack.  He also had to scramble many times.

 

I have faith that Stein and his quarterbacks will work hard this Spring and Summer to improve these stats you showed us.

 

Thanks again David!

[David Marsh]

On 1/16/2025 at 5:39 AM, Smith72 said:

 

I have faith that Stein and his quarterbacks will work hard this Spring and Summer to improve these stats you showed us.

It feels a little silly for me to be writing about all the things that went down offensively this season, when the Ducks still went 12-0 in the regular season and 13-0 if you include the conference championship. 

 

But it's that one loss in the Rose Bowl that made all of Oregon's faults come to light and highlight Oregon's on going weaknesses that they could cover up somewhat because the B1G only has a few exceptional teams. 

 

Gotta stop those sleepy third quarters which are effectively the difference in the stats between 2023 and 2024! 

 

Probably should have put that in the article but in truth it only hit me a little while later because the stat difference between the two seasons isn't that massive if you were to add touchdown in the third quarter. Over the course of a season that would increase the scoring average to about the same as 2024 to around 41ish points per game. It would also up the rushing yards and make up that 372 yard difference and the passing yards would get closer to making up that nearly 700 yard difference. 

 

It really comes down to that third quarter.... and having a couple more absolute blow out games. That Portland State beat down did pad the stats a lot in 2023. 

[Jon Joseph]

Thank you, David, for another insightful take.

 

Excellent article but there were some mitigating factors in 2024, most of which you noted.

 

The O line lost its anchor in J-P-J, a PFF NFL All-Rookie team member. Guard was a weak position coming into the season and injuries affected the guard play. 

 

Replace the Idaho stats with the Portland State (Rob, you want Big Sky, look up I5 and not elsewhere!) stats and the Ducks performance on O in 2024 improves. There was a 64-point plus swing between Portland and Idaho, 5.3 points over 12 games.

 

Do the stats you used for 2024 cover 12, 13, or 14 games? How many possessions did OBD have on O in 2023 compared to 2024? With the new timing rules in 2024, most teams ran fewer plays than in 2023. 

 

Nix was and is a better QB than Gabe. Bo, as you so noted, had a far more settled O-line to play behind, and the height advantage over Gabe allowed Bo to see downfield as plays developed. I don't have this stat but it would be interesting to compare the sacks and hurries in 2023 compared to 2024. Spot on regarding Franklin vs. Stewart's production.

 

Fergie was out due to surgery and Tez missed most of the Michigan game and was not back in full before the conference champ game. As you noted, Herbert disappeared in 2024 but also as you noted Sadiq, when given the chance to play came through. (Why was he not on the field and in the game plan more often? I don't want to be unfair but Kenyon appears to have Bowers-type ability.)

 

Man, I don't mean to whine after winning 13 games and a conference title but I do want to see some of the highly touted WR recruits step up from the start. Shouldn't 5* and highly rated 4* WRs be able to ball out from the get-go? "If you're good enough you're old enough?" Is OBD muffing WR evaluations? 

 

Was there a conscious effort in 2024 to throttle back after getting significant leads noting that OBD had to play eight games in a row without a break and might have to play 17 games to play for the title Monday night?

 

Enough nits picked. Dink and dunk appear to be Stein's bread and butter. I agree that the offense this season did not perform like the O in Stein's first season and Bo's second season with the team. How could you not agree with the presentation you made; really good stuff. 

 

2025 will likely see Dante Moore at the helm, a drop-back passer not as elusive as Bo or Gabe, not the same run threat. Not that Stein is a big run the QB play-caller but it will be interesting to see how Dante is used, and whether the RBs including the transfer from Tulane, match the play of JJ, and how long it takes the O-Line with two new starting tackles to get in synch. 

 

Thanks again, David. We 'only' have to wait until August 30, 2025, before the 15-1 Montana State Bobcats pay a visit to Autzen.

 

[Rob: PORT-LAND-STATE!]

 

 

[30Duck]

The O in Oregon's offense did look different in 2024, "Prevent offense" did seem to be the plan, but with an extended season to deal with being a reasonable explanation; that and the difference the Portland State game made. The running game wasn't slowed down, like the passing game design, but the offense definitely didn't look like the Oregon offense we had grown accustomed to.

 

Gabriel's lack of height probably was a part of this. Won't be an issue with Moore, and hopefully he and Dakorien will give us more of what we're used to, and maybe some more explosive plays from the RB's. There is still room to critique a 13-1 team, if there weren't, it would be 16-0. 

[David Marsh]

On 1/16/2025 at 8:31 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Do the stats you used for 2024 cover 12, 13, or 14 games? How many possessions did OBD have on O in 2023 compared to 2024? With the new timing rules in 2024, most teams ran fewer plays than in 2023. 

The stats were for all 14 games and both seasons the Ducks played the same amount of games. 

 

But you brought up a ton of good points. I forgot about how games were shorter this year with the new rules which would suppress offensive output across the board. 

[cartm25]

Thanks David for the article . . . love talking about this stuff.

 

I have a different take, I think the running game was the primary reason for poor offensive output this year. In the offensive statistics that I track (see below), the rush YPG and YPA were the worst over that period (from 2007 to present). I don't think opponents feared the running game, especially when they know both Oregon RBs are not homerun hitters.

 

While the passing output regressed compared to last year, it's still one of the better years historically. Only 2014 (CFP finalist and Mariota Heisman) and 2023 were really better.

 

In the tracker I use, I remove points scored by D/ST to truly show how effective the offense is at scoring. In 2024, the Ducks averaged 33.4 "offensive" PPG; only Mari Cristbal's offenses performed in line or worse than this. In 2023 the "offensive" PPG was 43.7.

 

@Jon Joseph - You asked about the number of possessions. I track that for efficiency metrics, and I count all the offensive possessions except for obvious kneel-downs or milking the clock drives at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters. I had to blink a few extra times, but the number of possessions in 2024 was the exact same as 2023, at an average of 10.28 per game (144 total in each year). When you look at the data, you'll see how remarkably efficient the 2023 offense was.

 

I feel like you @David Marsh, it feels awkward to criticize such a successful year, but the offense really regressed, and not just relative to 2023 either. The silver lining is that, while Stein's offense regressed in 2024, it was Stein orchestrating the most efficient offense, statistically, that Oregon has ever had in 2023.

 

The data:

[Charles Fischer]

Great article David, and fantastic research.

 

I remain in my own offensive delusion; I believe we purposely held back a ton of the passing offense to unleash in the Playoffs.  Then with Stewart out...

 

In the B1G...there is only a team or two that require you to score tons of points to win, hence no need to show the playbook versus a team you will handle easily regardless of the number of points scored.  I still believe that we did not get to see the best yet, because if I had been the OC...it makes sense to "just win the games" and throw new stuff at the elite teams you face in the Playoff.

 

Perhaps we will see this play out in the future....or my opinion turns is confirmed to be my own induced delusion. 

 

Either way...

 

[30Duck]

On 1/16/2025 at 10:25 AM, cartm25 said:

 

I have a different take, I think the running game was the primary reason for poor offensive output this year.

That was a tremendous take, supported with easy to recognize stats, thanks! On the running game, we don't need stats presented to us, we all saw that it wasn't the running game, even the "Finesse" Oregon teams had, it definitely didn't keep opposing DC's up all night. 

[David Marsh]

On 1/16/2025 at 10:25 AM, cartm25 said:

I don't think opponents feared the running game, especially when they know both Oregon RBs are not homerun hitters.

That was last week's article... 

 

Rebuilding Oregon’s Offense for 2025: Running Back | FishDuck

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Oregon’s run game in 2024 was good. At 13-1 with a B1G Championship under their belt, the Ducks were a very good team this year. However, the run game…

 

James was thunder but Oregon didn't have a true lightning to go with that. Whittington was hot or cold. 

 

James was pretty good at getting consistent chunk yardage and running against the B1G is going to be harder than running against the Pac-12 as the B1G meta is centered more on power run game so teams prepare for the power run game. With that said, I think Stein did a good job getting James chunk yards even against stout defenses. Against Penn State the Oregon run game did a good job marching down the field. 

 

But explosive run plays were few and far between. Getting a more explosive run game would help open things up. Getting a more vertical passing game would in turn help open up the run game. Stopping Oregon was tough but where teams found success it all came from slowing the run game stopping the dink and dunk passing game. 

[30Duck]

Just checked this, in 2019, with Joe Burrow throwing to Justin Jefferson & Jamarr Chase, LSU averaged 401 yards passing per game, and 167 rushing yards per game. Oregon should do that next year! 

[cartm25]

On 1/16/2025 at 12:44 PM, 30Duck said:

Just checked this, in 2019, with Joe Burrow throwing to Justin Jefferson & Jamarr Chase, LSU averaged 401 yards passing per game, and 167 rushing yards per game. Oregon should do that next year! 

LOL!! Yes good idea.

 

Let’s add a Joe Burrow, J’Mar Chase, and Justin Jefferson to the cart and head to check out.

[30Duck]

That LSU team was amazing to watch. That he transferred from osu2 made it more fun. 

[HDuck]

"I believe we purposely held back a ton of the passing offense to unleash in the Playoffs."

 

That's an interesting thought.   I disagree with that strategy because that element of your passing game is never "practiced" in actual games.  Then, you would still be reliant on the dink and dunk when it comes to playoff games because neither your receivers or your QB has experience/comfort in the long game.  It's one thing to practice it in practice against teammate DBs who are likely not as aggressive as opponent DBs in games, and another to "practice it" in actual games.  Your QB isn't "trained" to look mid/deep, and your WRs not trained to get separation.

[Charles Fischer]

On 1/16/2025 at 2:10 PM, HDuck said:

"I believe we purposely held back a ton of the passing offense to unleash in the Playoffs."

 

That's an interesting thought.   I disagree with that strategy because that element of your passing game is never "practiced" in actual games.  Then, you would still be reliant on the dink and dunk when it comes to playoff games because neither your receivers or your QB has experience/comfort in the long game.  It's one thing to practice it in practice against teammate DBs who are likely not as aggressive as opponent DBs in games, and another to "practice it" in actual games.  Your QB isn't "trained" to look mid/deep, and your WRs not trained to get separation.

I don't agree with that perception, because Oregon has won too many games in the past with new formations, new plays and new surprises thrown in at key moments.  We have seen unpracticed-in-game plays used by Lanning, and before that we saw a ton under Helfrich and Chip Kelly as OCs.

 

It got to be a guessing game for me when Chip was coach....how long had the play been in the playbook, and now used for the first time?  I've detailed before how a play had not been run in four years--and was sprung to score a TD.  Coaches do this all the time, IMHO.

 

(P.S. I don't think the pass plays that hurt us in the Rose Bowl had been used in games before by Ohio State)

 

[JDuck]

Reading this thread and the RB article...I wonder if the O-line isn't really the key?  I'm cautiously optimistic '25 will be a lot better.

 

The "lighting" at RB to go with thunder is a good point, the Tulane transfer and Riggs, and the incoming freshmen RB's may have it.

 

Taller QB Moore with Evans/Moore at WR and others might not be 2019 LSU but if Stein can grow, that element could be huge for '25.

 

TE is a ? but the talent on D should be growing.  Lanning will handle Tosh, Schedule is more favorable (don't overlook 1-AA runner up MSU!)

 

'25 could be great!

[David Marsh]

On 1/16/2025 at 3:06 PM, JDuck said:

I wonder if the O-line isn't really the key?

Certainly part of it. 

 

I was tempted to make that another article but I've been on the fence. The biggest problem is that with offensive line play is that there aren't too many stats to really use to read into how well an offensive line played. 

 

But what is clear is that the offensive line played worse than they did in 2023 with effectively an entirely new interior. 

 

In terms of running styles... James has always been tripped up and then fell forward before he could break free in the open field. So that isn't such a new thing with this offensive line and Whittington has either breaks free for a solid to big gain or gets stopped in a wall of humans. That was the case in 2022 and 2023 before he was injured as much as it was in 2024. 

 

Gabriel also had a tendency to hang in the pocket longer than Nix which was certainly the cause of some sacks in the first few games. His height probably played a role in some of his vision or lack thereof. But at the end of the day Tez Johnson's average yards were down and he is one of the major constants in the offense between 23 and 24. I'm looking at average and not total yards because in 23 he wasn't injured. 

 

I probably need to do a look into yards after catch and compare those... but those are usually more advanced stats and are not as easily accessible to the general public. What is evident was the passing game was shorter passes for smaller chunks of yards. 

[30Duck]

On 1/16/2025 at 3:19 PM, David Marsh said:

The biggest problem is that with offensive line play is that there aren't too many stats to really use to read into how well an offensive line played. 

 

There might not be specific stats. But, as the OL goes, so goes the offense. Joe Burrow and the 2019 Offense wouldn't have been elite if he was on his back, or just constantly hurried. OL's open the holes for RB's to run through. 

[PittDuck]

Thank you for posting David.  I too, appreciate your insight and ability to put into words what many of us think.

 

IMHO the B1G defenses overall were bigger faster and better than what we faced in the PAC12.  The Vandals, Broncos, and Beavers were not B1G, and the only one of those we ran out of the stadium went on to be the PAC 2 Champion.

[HDuck]

Gabriel had four completions of at least 28 yards in the first half in Oregon’s 32-31 victory on Oct. 12. That wasn’t the case at the Rose Bowl as his first long completion — a 44-yarder to Traeshon Holden — didn’t come until there were 30 seconds remaining until halftime.

 

“They dropped eight. First game they played us man. That was their game plan to stop us and they did it to the best of their ability and they succeeded,” said receiver Tez Johnson, who had five catches for 32 yards in Pasadena after having seven for 75 in the first game. Ducks obviously didn't adjust to D-line pressure, and to the D-looks.

 

[Grandpa Duck]

David, when comparing year to year statistics there is an assumption that, in the case of the offense, the opponents’ defenses from one year to the next are a constant.  Obviously they are not.  They are not even the same opponents.  And even where there are the same teams, their schedules, their players, and quality of play from game to game can change drastically.

 

Thanks for a thought provoking article.  Change is a big part of what makes sports fascinating.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/16/2025 at 8:50 PM, HDuck said:

Gabriel had four completions of at least 28 yards in the first half in Oregon’s 32-31 victory on Oct. 12. That wasn’t the case at the Rose Bowl as his first long completion — a 44-yarder to Traeshon Holden — didn’t come until there were 30 seconds remaining until halftime.

 

“They dropped eight. First game they played us man. That was their game plan to stop us and they did it to the best of their ability and they succeeded,” said receiver Tez Johnson, who had five catches for 32 yards in Pasadena after having seven for 75 in the first game. Ducks obviously didn't adjust to D-line pressure, and to the D-looks.

 

 

Great post. I am posting the article on Gabe's NFL chances here because it notes that Gabe had the longest run in the 2024 season, 54 yards. 

 

 

Oregon Ducks' Dillon Gabriel Slighted By 2025 NFL Draft Projection?

WWW.YARDBARKER.COM

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It’s officially NFL Draft season. There’s still one college football game left to be played, but the evaluations and projections are in full swing. The Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine Bowl are just a...

 

How often has an OBD QB had the longest run in a given season? 

[dksez]

Good insights. Thanks, @David Marsh.

I prefer simple answers because they are often overlooked by smart people. Football is a game of inches, so what if this all comes down to five (inches), which I think is the height difference between Nix and Gabriel? I think it was maybe Maryland who showed what a difference it makes if the defensive linemen simply keep their hands up when rushing the passer, denying a shorter quarterback a clear view of anything farther downfield.

[David Marsh]

On 1/17/2025 at 9:34 AM, dksez said:

I prefer simple answers because they are often overlooked by smart people. Football is a game of inches, so what if this all comes down to five (inches), which I think is the height difference between Nix and Gabriel? I think it was maybe Maryland who showed what a difference it makes if the defensive linemen simply keep their hands up when rushing the passer, denying a shorter quarterback a clear view of anything farther downfield.

It also explains why Gabriel had so many roll outs. Rolling out of the pocket is great to extend plays but it does in turn cut off portions of the field open to passing. 

 

The other side of things here too is that Oregon's linemen are BIG now. So if you take a slightly shorter quarterback in Gabriel he may have difficulties seeing down field because of his own linemen. He did have some good sized linemen at Oklahoma but in turn he wasn't going against other big bodied defensive lineman as often as the majority of the Big 12 before the departure of Texas and Oklahoma.