2025 Ducks: Are Your Defensive Expectations Too High?

[FishDuck Article]

As you know, I enjoy pondering about Our Beloved Ducks, and do so effectively out loud between these FishDuck articles, and our free, safe forum for Oregon fans. There were grumbles after the Rose Bowl loss about our defensive shortcomings that day, and I began to cogitate on what is a reasonable goal for points being given up by Oregon’s ...

 

2025 Ducks: Are Your Defensive Expectations Too High? | FishDuck

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As you know, I enjoy pondering about Our Beloved Ducks, and do so effectively out loud between these FishDuck articles, and our free, safe forum for Oregon fans.

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Great article! I think the biggest question to answer for both sides of the ball is if the up and coming youngsters live up to the hype this year or not. If these four and five star recruits turn into four and five stars on the field, the sky is the limit. Not every 4/5 star recruit can become a KT or Penei Sewell their freshman year. After a year in the system adapting to top tier college play, the cream should rise to the top and those guys should be able to find playing time against whoever transfers in or by pass lower ceiling seniors on the depth chart. 

 

This will be my most highly anticipated spring game of the Lanning era. Can't wait!

[Jon Joseph]

 

Thank you, Charles, most enlightening. 

 

WOW! 23 more points on average given up to playoff-quality opponents. Three TDs plus. An indictment of scheme, coaching, talent, all of the above?

 

This is concerning. I'll leave it to you and far more qualified Xs and Os folks than I, to suggest what needs to be changed besides better Jimmy's and Joe's. However, I am mindful that it took Ryan Day six seasons and a lot of NIL money to win a title.

 

The 2025 schedule is light-weight compared on paper, to 2024. No Ohio State, Michigan, and no preseason ranked Illinois. The games at Iowa and UW will be tough but the game at Penn State is the marquee matchup, no doubt.

 

Also in 2025, no ridiculous 8-games without a break gauntlet to endure. One of the two trips to the Central time zone is versus Northwestern. One of the two trips to the Eastern time zone is versus Rutgers. The only Blue Chip Roster opponents on the schedule are Penn State and USC. 

 

Penn State like Michigan in 2023, and Ohio State in 2024, brings back many players, eleven, who were projected to be drafted in the 2025 draft. PSU has opened the NIL wallet.

 

Two top Penn State RBs, Allen and Singleton both went for over 100 yards against the Ducks D in the champ game, are back. And four O-line starters return, buttressed by three starting P4 O-line players brought in via portal. 

 

For good and bad, QB Drew Allar is back. But without TE Tyler Warren, the PSU WRs need to show up. Against Notre Dame, Allar completed NO passes to his wideouts.

 

Abdul Carter is gone, but many stud D players return and will be coached by the guy who engineered the best D in the country last season at Ohio State, Jim Knowles. 

 

So, 'Can that kind of defense be duplicated again?' I hope not!

 

https://247sports.com/article/oregon-ducks-football-trip-to-penn-state-football-season-defining-espn-245899164/

 

Future odds have OBD favored in all regular season games in 2025, including Penn State, and Oregon has better odds of winning the 2025-26 title than Penn State.

 

I envy those of you who will be in Happy Valley for the game. 

 

In Dan Lanning's 4th season, I hope the D will step up against quality as well as average opponents.

 

Thanks again for a most insightful take.

 

 

[30Duck]

I'm sure my expectations are too high, but it's March. I'm not expecting a Georgia defense from a few years back, when half of it went in the 1st round of the NFL Draft, but something like that? I want an edge rusher that keeps opposing OC's up at night, as great as Moore to Moore can be, I'm really excited about the new safeties! Most of all, I want a defense where 3 & outs are not surprising. 

[Jon Joseph]

 

Tosh, kind of, explains why the Ducks D was MIA in Pasadena. 

 

Don't worry, the explanation is not as long as 'War and Peace.'

 

 

Tosh Lupoi opens up about what went wrong for Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

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Oregon Ducks defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi opens up about what went wrong against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.

 

In sum: I was jocked by The Chipper.

[Nevada Dawg]

It is hard for this Duck fan to make any solid predictions about the 25 Ducks other than they are likely to be a very good team. I'd like you guys in the know to tell me how many offensive and defensive starters have moved on. I'm most interested in the status of the trench monsters on both sides of the ball as that is where titles are won or lost. Skill players are important, of course, but not nearly as important as the big uglies up front. 

 

Most of what I have been able to glean from posts here is about skill players and very little is said about the skills of the linemen, who is making moves and what the strengths and weaknesses are for those units. Interestingly, except for musings about QBs, most discussions of players center heavily on the offensive and defensive linemen when I read the Talk'n Dawgs blog, and the coaches on that outlet get down and dirty when evaluating these dudes. Thus, I feel like I have a handle on the trenches, (good or not so good) that I don't get OBD, and this information is what informs my opinion on the Dawgs' prognosis for the upcoming season.

 

I don't mean my comments as a criticism. This is a great forum, but not one with the specific information that allow me to speak with confidence about the team's likely prognosis against the top talents of the B1G or other conferences. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/18/2025 at 1:29 AM, Nevada Dawg said:

It is hard for this Duck fan to make any solid predictions about the 25 Ducks other than they are likely to be a very good team. I'd like you guys in the know to tell me how many offensive and defensive starters have moved on. I'm most interested in the status of the trench monsters on both sides of the ball as that is where titles are won or lost. Skill players are important, of course, but not nearly as important as the big uglies up front. 

 

Most of what I have been able to glean from posts here is about skill players and very little is said about the skills of the linemen, who is making moves and what the strengths and weaknesses are for those units. Interestingly, except for musings about QBs, most discussions of players center heavily on the offensive and defensive linemen when I read the Talk'n Dawgs blog, and the coaches on that outlet get down and dirty when evaluating these dudes. Thus, I feel like I have a handle on the trenches, (good or not so good) that I don't get OBD, and this information is what informs my opinion on the Dawgs' prognosis for the upcoming season.

 

I don't mean my comments as a criticism. This is a great forum, but not one with the specific information that allow me to speak with confidence about the team's likely prognosis against the top talents of the B1G or other conferences. 

 

ND, below is a summary of players transferring in before the 2nd portal window opens. Ten players are transferring in to fill positions of need, among them the highest-rated portal player, OT Isiah World from Nevada, the No. 1 rated safety from Purdue, Dillon Thienman, and a top-rated RB from Tulane, Makhi Hughes. Transfer Emmanuel Pregnon started at guard for USC in 2023 and 2024; he also received offers from Texas and Tennessee. 

 

A guy you may recall from his one season at Georgia, Bear Alexander, is transferring in and is expected to start on the D-line. To date it appears that Alexander is playing like a valued teammate. I hope it will last. 

 

Oregon could definitely use more help at LB, DL, and DB. We'll see if any players will be added from the portal's 2nd go round. 

 

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/longformarticle/meet-oregon-footballs-top-10-transfer-portal-recruiting-class-242440836/#2567783

 

Will the transfers integrate successfully, always a question. With only two preseason ranked teams on the 2025 schedule, Penn State and Indiana, this is a good season to have holes to fill. 

[Drake]

The D-line always determines much of our success on defense. DT’s like Haloti Ngata are not the norm, but are always high on my wish list. 
 

I think our DT’s determine how good we are this year on defense. Our DB’s are a big question mark this year, and the DT’s will help by playing solid football. 
 

I really don’t have a good feel for us defensively. I think allowing an average of 20 points wins a lot of games. Assuming that we average 35 to 40 on offense. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/17/2025 at 10:29 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

This is a great forum, but not one with the specific information

We have provided an enormous amount of information about our defensive line, depth, recruiting, etc. in the threads of articles posted for the benefit of Oregon fans reading here.  It is typical for 15-20 articles are posted here per day, especially during the season about our upcoming defensive line. To recite all of it would be extensive, and while we are not discussing them in depth--we are all reading the articles and are aware of what we have coming up.

 

As a courtesy, I will give you a quick update:

 

Lanning has placed a massive emphasis on defensive line in recruiting, (no surprise) and the Ducks are very deep with Rivals 4-Star NT, DT, SDE and Edge rushers. We have a 5-Star in there, Matayo Uiagalelei, who, like another DE/Edge Teitum Tuioti, are now juniors who are ready to step up in a big way.  We have quite a few others, but aside from Bear as a transfer--the year of maturing players stepping up from the prior years of good recruiting has arrived.

 

In his first three years--we were heavy on transfers for the defensive line, but this is the transition year to players recruited and developed to establish the defensive line.  I will not list all their stats--bottom line is that Lanning knows what we need, and if he did not get a ton of transfers....that tells us all that the years of stacking top-ten recruiting is ready on the defensive line.

 

At linebacker we are very fortunate to have Bryce Boettcher back at one inside linebacker, who graded out as one of the top-five LBs in the country according to PFF.  The other spot will be taken by Devon Jackson, who played as much as the starters, and is one of the fastest players on the team. A perfect fit for Lanning...  Beyond that we have a bunch of high-talent 4-Star LBs, but they are young, and will sub-in often as Jackson did last year.

 

A'Mauri Washington is an example of a very big-boy about to step up. (6'3' 320)

 

In the secondary--the recruiting as been astounding from the HS ranks, as we have a ton of uber-talented players stacked up, but again....young. For the meantime--Oregon went out and got two safeties in the portal, and a corner. We have a former starter at corner returning who sat out last year with an injury, and another corner with extreme promise, as he was the No. 1 JC recruit a year ago. He is in the system now, played some and it there to challenge, although some young-guns will have a ton to say about that.

 

Are we at Georgia talent on defense? If we have to rely that much on the portal for the secondary, then the answer is NO. We have another year before recruited talent is ready to take over in the defensive backfield as it now has at LB and defensive line.  And of course--you will always have a few transfers regardless, especially when exceptional players become available.

 

I am a 38 year ticket holder, and have written over 600 articles about Oregon, and I can tell you that the talent recruited to Oregon is the deepest I've ever witnessed. They are still young and maturing at many positions, but we are slowly getting there.  Lanning will have the Ducks permanently entrenched as elite with another year of recruiting, IMHO. (We are there now with our top five ranking to end last season, and another top-five projected for this season, but to remain there as a fixture will take another year of elite recruiting--I believe.)

 

We also have a link to our depth chart, although not yet updated for spring yet right here, and I expect it will be updated to reflect those gone, and newbies soon.  Hover over the name and you will see the stats on the player pop up. (To find this depth chart....go to the top of the site and click on "Repository," and then on ChileDuck's Depth Chart)

 

[Nevada Dawg]

Thanks to Charles and Jon for the information they have provided here. I was never concerned that Lanning would not have talent at his disposal and there is much to be optimistic about. I guess I need to read more articles and less comments. Hopefully this will be another great season for OBD.

 

Given his past, I have some real concerns about Bear Alexander. I don't question his talent as much as his maturity and ability to be coached, and I won't get into specifics here. He is now at his third school and this is his last shot, so he better not blow it. By now he has hopefully learned that he is not God's gift to football. He can be a very good player if he digs in and works, but he has a high potential of becoming a distraction as well.

 

Hopefully the coaches have this kid on a short leash. I suspect CDL has consulted closely on Bear with Kirby Smart who is probably telling Dan some of the same things I am telling you. He is definitely worth a trial at a new home and I am hoping Bear has grown up.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/18/2025 at 10:24 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

Given his past, I have some real concerns about Bear Alexander.

I completely agree.  When Bear's name surfaced...I wrote here--PASS.  Yet we took him?

 

I forgot that Lanning was there when Bear was at Georgia, and thus a relationship.  I think they had the "Come to Reality" conversation in the recruiting process, as the reports coming out of Spring Camp and Winter workouts, is that Bear is a man-possessed.  He is trying to make his last shot work, and I am happy for him and the Ducks if it works.

 

If it does not--I am quite comfortable with the talent Lanning has assembled at Eugene...as Elijah Rushing, Tionne Gray, Aydin Breland, etc. are all defensive linemen that the best of CFB were after, and they are now maturing into starter-mode.

 

 

Lanning has done the impossible at Oregon, as it is SO HARD to recruit this far away from their homes, and major metropolitan centers.  By contrast, it would be SO EASY to be in Georgia, and clean up on local talent and that within two hours flight time.  When I watched SEC recruiting in the past....I said to myself that if a great coach and recruiter ever came to Georgia and captured what is in their backyard...they would dominate.

 

And Kirby has done precisely that.

 

I love what you have done, and if Dano achieves similar?  It will be a much BIGGER success, (IMHO) as the talent pool locally, sucks by comparison.

 

[Nevada Dawg]

All other things being equal, Kirby prefers the in-state to the out-of-state guy for several reasons, not the least of which is that the in-state guy has often grown up as a Dawg fan and will likely be much less of a portal risk if it takes a while for them to get on the field.  And it is worth noting that there is an abundance of well-coached high school talent in the state of Georgia.

 

The thing that many casual observers don't understand sometimes is that the greater metro Atlanta, which contains half or more of Georgia's population, is far from exclusively a Dawg recruiting Mecca. Many residents have moved to the area from other regions for employment opportunities and hence, many metro football players have little if any connection and/or attachment to UGA. Not only that but the entire SEC heavily recruits the greater Atlanta area. So the Dawgs lose many kids playing high school ball in Georgia that Kirby would really like to have.

 

Having said this, I heartily concur that Dan Lanning has done a stupendous job of recruiting in what many unknowledgeable folks would consider the backwoods hinterland of Eugene Oregon. It is mostly Lanning but Oregon does have the advantage of being know as a beautiful state and has attracted many, many Georgia prospects who may have never been West and will take a paid recruiting trip to check Oregon out. If you can get them on campus you always have a shot, and some kids find it nice to be so far away from Mom and Dad for for a couple or three years. But my hat is off to Dan for the job he has done putting together a top caliber roster.