PAC-20 - Offseason Beating A Deceased Horse - But My, What Could Have Been?

[Jon Joseph]

I have made it clear that IMO, the Pac-12 blew it by not taking Houston and 'left-over' B12 teams when it had a chance to expand. This would have been the divisional line-up, results for 2021 (using final AP ranking) and the 2022 preseason ranking by ESPN.

 

WEST - Arizona, ASU, CAL, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, UW, Washington St. The former Pac-10.

 

5 Bowl Games - 0-4 with a no contest

 

Ranked - 22 Oregon

 

2022 preseason ranked - 12 Oregon, 22 USC

 

EAST - Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah

 

7 Bowl Games - 5-2.  2-1 in NY6 bowls.

 

Ranked - 5 Baylor, 7 Oklahoma St, 12 Utah, 17 Houston

 

2022 preseason ranked - 7 Utah, 9 OK ST, 13 Houston, 16 Baylor

 

The Pac-20:

 

Would have expanded Pac-12 market size into the central time zone including football crazy Texas and the Dallas and Houston markets.

 

With the occasional exception of Oregon and USC, more eyeballs watched the East teams play than watched West teams play.

 

Could have been a lifeline for the functionally insolvent Pac-12 Network. Many new subscribers would have signed up and the Network would have been far better positioned to be carried on all major cable providers.  A media partner would be far more inclined to buy the Network or a piece of the Network and operate the Network on a professional level. With far better coverage of CFB and better kick-off times for Pac-20 games. Today, I see no way in which the Pac-12 schools will recover their investment in the Pac-12 Network.

 

More quantity, but the quality today would be in the East Division. In addition to Utah's close loss in the Rose Bowl, Baylor won the Sugar Bowl and OK ST won the Fiesta Bowl.

 

Distributions to the new teams would have been phased in so no Pac-12 team would take a 'hair cut.' This was the model the B1G used when Maryland, Nebraska and Rutgers joined the conference. This could have been easily negotiated when bringing Houston to the P4 level and throwing a life-line to the B12 schools. 

 

The Pac-12 competes against Baylor and TCU. IMO religious affiliation should not exclude these 2. Religion is not used when determining admission to these 2 schools. For example, both schools have many students who are not affiliated with any religion, students who are Jewish and students who are Muslim. Today, these two are far more secular than they are religious oriented schools.

 

Adding the central time zone and Texas would have improved the Pac-12's position when negotiating new media rights.

 

Many of the added schools in the East have quality basketball programs.

 

Where does the Pac-12 go now if it decides to expand?

 

The P5 would have become the P4. One fewer power conference to share Playoff proceeds. One fewer bidder for media rights.

 

Without this expansion how does the Pac-12 have a hope of closing the financial gap between the B1G and the SEC. I doubt that the soon-to-be 16 school SEC is done with expansion.

 

A 20 team Pac-20 'super conference' would be far less likely to have teams poached or deciding to leave the Pac-12. It would have helped especially with the long term viability of the Pac-12 schools in smaller media markets. It likely would have assured that USC and Oregon 'remain in the fold.'

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

OK, this didn't happen. But I intend to track the 'Pac-20' through 2024, in order to value, at least on an estimated basis, the difference between the Pac-12's new coming media rights deal compared to what the 'Pac-20.' might have produced.

 

I cannot come up with a single business reason(s) that justifies the Pac-12 standing still.

 

 

 

 

[Haywarduck]

Agree, if you stand still the competition just moves further away. I haven't seen too many moves by George to help shore up the conference. Fortunately Oregon and sc have done their part.

 

One item I don't get is the obsession with starting our games earlier. The NFL has late games which have very high viewership. What we need is a quality product. I agree a diverse product would help too. Bringing in schools from Texas and other states would help. 

 

I do admit I don't get the whole tv contract structure. It would seem if the Pac-12 puts a compelling product on the fields the tv contract will be an easy sell.

[woundedknees]

Aww, Geez... There you go with that logic thingie again!

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/23/2022 at 12:19 PM, Haywarduck said:

Agree, if you stand still the competition just moves further away. I haven't seen too many moves by George to help shore up the conference. Fortunately Oregon and sc have done their part.

 

One item I don't get is the obsession with starting our games earlier. The NFL has late games which have very high viewership. What we need is a quality product. I agree a diverse product would help too. Bringing in schools from Texas and other states would help. 

 

I do admit I don't get the whole tv contract structure. It would seem if the Pac-12 puts a compelling product on the fields the tv contract will be an easy sell.

Good points. But the late NFL games kickoff at 8 eastern time and not 10:30 eastern time. 

 

A 10:30 PM start on the Pac-12 Network is watched by few folks; especially, folks who live east east of Colorado.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Does the PAC put a compelling product on the field? IMO, not very often over the last few years. Of course it depends on what you find compelling. It's purely subjective to the fans but not the networks.  Past ratings play a big role in future TV contract negotiations. Ask yourself what games in the 2021 football season were compelling to the networks? tOSU/Oregon, LSU/UCLA definitely. Maybe Oregon/UCLA? I only watched Oregon games because of my love for all things Ducks.

 

Moving ahead.  USC/ND, Stanford/ND, Oregon/Utah (1 and 2). Those games had potential but 1 team in each game failed to show up. The TV entertainment potential never materialized. When given national exposure the PAC failed to deliver most of the time. The PAC had terrible OOC losses and as a result we had very few games between 6-0 and 5-1 teams. You know the kind of games that are compelling to fans in other regions. Half full stadiums, no energy and multiple games that meant nothing do not attract the networks.

 

The last 2 seasons I found myself watching BIG and BIG12 games because they were compelling. The weak ass leadership of the PAC in 2020 allowed fans and the networks to look elsewhere for programming entertainment. In 2021 I continued to watch the BIG and BIG12 games. Ask yourself if Wisconsin/Penn State, Iowa/Minnesota, Baylor/Texas Tech, Iowa State/OSU were more compelling than Arizona/Colorado, Cal/Oregon State, WSU/Stanford. Even if fans around the country wanted to watch those PAC games, they would find it difficult. The PAC 12 Network has poor distribution and the Networks don't cover most of those match ups. However, if the games were of interest or compelling the narrative would change. It takes consistent winning by all PAC partners to change the narrative. How many partners are committed to winning?

 

Ask yourself if PAC games were must watch TV? OOC and conference games sure are in BIG and BIG 12 country. Then ask yourself how exciting were PAC games. Not many PAC games equalled Baylor/Oklahoma, OSU/Baylor, The Red River Rivalry, Michigan/MSU, Iowa/Penn State. Just think some of those match ups would be in the PAC-20. Conference games starting at 9:00 am and lasting thru early Sunday morning. Baylor, OSU, TT, Iowa State fans would stay up late to watch their team play Oregon, USC, Utah, UCLA. But guess what, the networks would have those games on in prime time.

 

Just a side note, ESPN covered the BIG12 men's BB games all day. National exposure. You could make a case that a PAC-20 would rival the ACC in men's BB  It's not to late to change this mess. The Presidents need to pull their collective heads out of the academic ignorant b...s. Then on bended knee, with a mix of humility, invite the new BIG12 to merge with the PAC12. Form the first 24-team super conference with all 4 time zones covered. Forward thinking and bold moves to leverage the changing landscape.. 24 teams, 4 time zones with Oregon and USC as anchors would be impossible for the networks to ignore.

[Jon Joseph]

A 24 super conference would allow for 2 12 team divisions and limit travel for CBB and the non-revenue sports. 

 

The reason we do not have the Pac-20 is due to academic snobbery and sheer stupidity.  An 'exclusive club,' right?

[Jon Joseph]

Happy, a bit more on your fantastic comment. If the Pac-12 and B12 merge which makes all kinds of business sense for both.

 

This happens I can see the B1G adding UNC, UVA, PITT, Duke, Iowa State, 5 AAU member schools and Notre Dame. And I can see the SEC adding Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, Miami, NC State and Georgia Tech.

 

3 Power Conferences.  Far easier path to playoff expansion.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/23/2022 at 2:49 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Does the PAC put a compelling product on the field? IMO, not very often over the last few years. Of course it depends on what you find compelling. It's purely subjective to the fans but not the networks.  Past ratings play a big role in future TV contract negotiations. Ask yourself what games in the 2021 football season were compelling to the networks? tOSU/Oregon, LSU/UCLA definitely. Maybe Oregon/UCLA? I only watched Oregon games because of my love for all things Ducks.

 

Moving ahead.  USC/ND, Stanford/ND, Oregon/Utah (1 and 2). Those games had potential but 1 team in each game failed to show up. The TV entertainment potential never materialized. When given national exposure the PAC failed to deliver most of the time. The PAC had terrible OOC losses and as a result we had very few games between 6-0 and 5-1 teams. You know the kind of games that are compelling to fans in other regions. Half full stadiums, no energy and multiple games that meant nothing do not attract the networks.

 

The last 2 seasons I found myself watching BIG and BIG12 games because they were compelling. The weak ass leadership of the PAC in 2020 allowed fans and the networks to look elsewhere for programming entertainment. In 2021 I continued to watch the BIG and BIG12 games. Ask yourself if Wisconsin/Penn State, Iowa/Minnesota, Baylor/Texas Tech, Iowa State/OSU were more compelling than Arizona/Colorado, Cal/Oregon State, WSU/Stanford. Even if fans around the country wanted to watch those PAC games, they would find it difficult. The PAC 12 Network has poor distribution and the Networks don't cover most of those match ups. However, if the games were of interest or compelling the narrative would change. It takes consistent winning by all PAC partners to change the narrative. How many partners are committed to winning?

 

Ask yourself if PAC games were must watch TV? OOC and conference games sure are in BIG and BIG 12 country. Then ask yourself how exciting were PAC games. Not many PAC games equalled Baylor/Oklahoma, OSU/Baylor, The Red River Rivalry, Michigan/MSU, Iowa/Penn State. Just think some of those match ups would be in the PAC-20. Conference games starting at 9:00 am and lasting thru early Sunday morning. Baylor, OSU, TT, Iowa State fans would stay up late to watch their team play Oregon, USC, Utah, UCLA. But guess what, the networks would have those games on in prime time.

 

Just a side note, ESPN covered the BIG12 men's BB games all day. National exposure. You could make a case that a PAC-20 would rival the ACC in men's BB  It's not to late to change this mess. The Presidents need to pull their collective heads out of the academic ignorant b...s. Then on bended knee, with a mix of humility, invite the new BIG12 to merge with the PAC12. Form the first 24-team super conference with all 4 time zones covered. Forward thinking and bold moves to leverage the changing landscape.. 24 teams, 4 time zones with Oregon and USC as anchors would be impossible for the networks to ignore.

 

THE ALL AMERICAN CONFERENCE - CO-COMMISSIONERS - GK and Bob Bowlsby.

 

PAC-12 DIVISION 

 

North - CAL, Stanford, Oregon, OR ST, UW, WA ST

 

South - AZ, ASU, CU, UCLA, USC. Utah

 

B1G - 12 DIVISION

 

East - Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa ST, TCU, UCF, W VA

 

West - Baylor, BYU, Kansas, K ST, OK ST, Texas Tech

 

Pac-12 Network moved to Dallas, TX, saved and re-branded as The AAC Network.  Pac-12 schools at least get their original investment returned. AAC Network bought whole or in part by media partner. 

 

Far better media negotiation leverage than the Pac-12, B12 on their own.

[Mike West]

I can't let go of the feeling this conference doesn't matter anymore.

 

I get the feeling the presidents of this conference want to ruin football and basketball.  

 

I can't prove it, but I completely suspect it.  Athletics do not matter to these people in my opinion.  

 

Inaction is action.  So it's reaction rather than proactive steps.  What have these presidents really done the last three years? Nothing.

 

That's why I feel the way I feel.  

[HappyToBeADuck]

JJ.....Eventually one of the three conferences (BIG, BIG12, ACC) will determine expansion is in their best interest. Someone will ask how do we capture the West Coast audience? How do we expand our footprint for recruiting into California? How do we make ourselves more attractive to our network partners and advertisers? How do we give our NIL partners a better ROI?

 

How about USC, Oregon, UCLA, Utah, ASU, UW(Barf, get your head out of the toilet)? It's going to happen because it makes smart business sense to expand. Then 6 presidents are going to be outside looking in... Serves them right.

 

Mike West......This conference still matters to the fans. This conference still matters and has value to the networks. But this conference does not matter to the Presidents. Their stand pat inaction has left the conference weak and vulnerable. 

 

Took the puppy (the conference) out to play in the fenced front yard this morning. Fortunately, I noticed a hawk (other conferences) in the trees less than 50 feet way. The puppy was not aware of the hawk. The hawk was definitely aware of the puppy. Our puppy (the conference) is only concerned with itself. The hawk (other conferences) are aware of what's in their best interest. Look what the SEC did to the BIG12. Only the 12-PAC presidents, full of academic arrogance and narcissistic ignorance didn't see it.

 

It was up to me to take care of and protect my puppy. She didn't feel or understand the potential danger. The PAC presidents either don't understand or don't care about the potential danger. You decide which it is?

[Grandpa Duck]

Questions for Jon and Hayward.  Do either of you think there will be another opportunity for the Pac-12 to expand to the east?
 

If “yes” when will that be, or put another way, what circumstances need to come about that cause those midwestern schools to want to hook up with us?

And, just why is a bigger number of teams in a conference necessarily better?

 

Hare’s my take.  Those of us on the beautiful west coast are at a great disadvantage because the earth rotates from west to east.  That puts us three hours behind, not only game starting times, but news story deadlines, fan viewing stamina and TV network scheduling priorities.

 

it’s not just that our games are played later, it is that people in the east are doing other things when our teams get on the field. The vast majority of them have finished with football for the day when our games are getting underway.

 

Whereas my Saturday football viewing gets going with the last hour or so of game day, recorded and fast-forward through commercials.  Then an SEC game at 9 a.m. and at least one other during commercials.

 

I’m usually awake for the PAC-12 4:30 game, but admittedly I tend to doze off a bit during the 7:30 game.  If my own conference can’t hold my attention for a full Saturday, how are we ever going to entice schools in earlier time zones to play away games on our late game schedule?
 

To me, speculation  on would have, could have, and should have regarding conference realignments are about as productive as figuring out how to reverse the earth’s rotation.

Also, the optimal number of teams in a conference is 10, with every team playing every other team every year.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/23/2022 at 4:28 PM, Mike West said:

I can't let go of the feeling this conference doesn't matter anymore.

 

I get the feeling the presidents of this conference want to ruin football and basketball.  

 

I can't prove it, but I completely suspect it.  Athletics do not matter to these people in my opinion.  

 

Inaction is action.  So it's reaction rather than proactive steps.  What have these presidents really done the last three years? Nothing.

 

That's why I feel the way I feel.  

Love to have been there for the expansion discussion especially after GK said the AAU membership would not be a requirement to join GK has asked member schools to go all in on CFB and CBB. Will they? I doubt it.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/23/2022 at 8:27 PM, Grandpa Duck said:

Questions for Jon and Hayward.  Do either of you think there will be another opportunity for the Pac-12 to expand to the east?
 

If “yes” when will that be, or put another way, what circumstances need to come about that cause those midwestern schools to want to hook up with us?

And, just why is a bigger number of teams in a conference necessarily better?

 

Hare’s my take.  Those of us on the beautiful west coast are at a great disadvantage because the earth rotates from west to east.  That puts us three hours behind, not only game starting times, but news story deadlines, fan viewing stamina and TV network scheduling priorities.

 

it’s not just that our games are played later, it is that people in the east are doing other things when our teams get on the field. The vast majority of them have finished with football for the day when our games are getting underway.

 

Whereas my Saturday football viewing gets going with the last hour or so of game day, recorded and fast-forward through commercials.  Then an SEC game at 9 a.m. and at least one other during commercials.

 

I’m usually awake for the PAC-12 4:30 game, but admittedly I tend to doze off a bit during the 7:30 game.  If my own conference can’t hold my attention for a full Saturday, how are we ever going to entice schools in earlier time zones to play away games on our late game schedule?
 

To me, speculation  on would have, could have, and should have regarding conference realignments are about as productive as figuring out how to reverse the earth’s rotation.

Also, the optimal number of teams in a conference is 10, with every team playing every other team every year.

Pac-12 certainly had the opportunity to go east and demurred. For media purposes, the 7:30 nap game for you is a fast asleep game in eastern time. This IMO is one of the major reasons why the conference should have expanded into the central time zone and should now consider a merger with the B12.

 

But I agree with Mike West; how many folks in charge of Pac-12 schools give a whip? SC and Oregon in particular, need to look out for themselves including taking a look at joining the B12.

[MaiTaiDuck]

On 1/23/2022 at 10:53 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Good points. But the late NFL games kickoff at 8 eastern time and not 10:30 eastern time. 

 

A 10:30 PM start on the Pac-12 Network is watched by few folks; especially, folks who live east east of Colorado.

I never agreed when Scott would make all those late games and I as a fan wanted early games. That helped with the downfall and with him being in office for so long and not doing anything for the conference was baffling to say the least. All that money out there yet a guy from Harvard couldn't get it done. It only helps the conference hire better coach's and it's all about competing right. No game should be a kick off on the west coast later than 5:30 pm.