PAC-12 Needs to Make Moves Sooner Rather Than Later

[QuackAttack]

The PAC-12 leadership i.e. university presidents and conference front office still seems to be suffering from their country club mentality while the Big 12 seems to be looking to be more aggressive. The PAC-12 needs to abandon this idea of only a certain academic fit etc. should be allowed into the conference. Years ago when expansion to 12 took place, everybody got worked up about no to BYU, which is Utah's natural rivalry. At that time, they should have gotten Colorado, Utah and BYU. Right now nobody is itching to pull the trigger and go after SDSU and Fresno State. What happens if the Big 12 is talking to both schools and they scoop up those schools before the PAC-12 even gets off the pot. What is needed is television markets along with schools that could ad value in recruiting grounds and any expansion should be a significant increase in numbers. I would like to see the following:

 

North                                                     South

Oregon                                                  Colorado

Oregon State                                        Air Force

Washington                                          Arizona

Washington State                               Arizona State

California                                             Utah

Stanford                                               Utah State

Nevada                                                San Diego State

UNLV                                                    Fresno State

Boise State                                         UT San Antonio

Colorado State                                   UT El Paso

 

Each school added offers benefits: The Texas schools open up Texas recruiting and two 1 million + media markets. SDSU & Fresno help with the So Cal recruiting market and San Diego is a larger media market. Utah State pairs a more natural rivalry to Utah. Nevada and UNLV are natural rivals and Vegas is where the conference headquarters should be, plus the Vegas Valley has nearly 3 million people. Colorado State pairs better to Colorado than Utah and increases the Front Range viewership, as does Air Force and the PAC-12 schools can say what they want about their academics, outside of Stanford and Cal, no body is touching Air Force academically. Boise State provides a good football program that has kicked plenty of PAC-12 tail in the past decade +.

 

[Thornton Hall]

I would take a hard pass on those options you’ve listed with the exceptions of maybe San Diego st and Fresno st or one of the Nevada schools. The rest really bring nothing to the table in terms of strengthening the conference and are solidly G5 programs and not even particularly good ones at that. . 

[lownslowav8r]

Everything I’ve read says the Big-12 is in a much weaker place than the  PAC-12. Beyond  SDSU no possible college really adds value. The PAC-12 leadership is waiting until they get some offers from ESPN and streaming services. They are not being passive.  

[DCDuckfan]

Oregon recruits nationally and doesn't need UT San Antonio on the schedule to get recruits from Texas.  Oregon is a national brand and as mentioned multiple times on this site and by DL during his opening statement during the Pac media day, has the #7 national TV audience. 

 

None of these schools move the needle to improve recruiting nor do they result in more TV viewers and revenue. 

 

Oregon's best option is to go to the B1G.  The next best option (also the most unlikely) is to join the SEC.  If neither of those are an option, they should remain in an unchanged PAC-10.  If that option isn't available, then they should be independent.  If that isn't feasible, they can join the Big-12.  Last and definitely least, if none of the previously mentioned options happen, then they can join the MWC with a couple other Pac schools and make tens of thousands of dollars per season in TV revenue.

[HappyToBeADuck]

QuackAttack, you bring up some valid points and thoughts. However, IMHO, patience is the key. I believe 2 things should play out before the PAC expands.......

 

First, now that the BIG has drawn first blood against the alliance it would be prudent to let them set the market price for TV broadcasting rights. If Fox and the BIG lock everyone else out then their will be hungry networks and streaming services looking for West Coast content. The PAC 10 is the only player for that content. The only player.........

 

Second, test the waters and make the best deal for the 10 remaining schools. Between the major networks bidding, streaming services looking for content and the PAC Network each school should be able to receive north of $50 million.

 

Even though ESPN initially low balled the PAC10, just remember ESPN needs the PAC. They cannot be left out of Friday and Saturday night football content.

 

The bidding will increase over time. The Phoenix, Bay Area, Seattle, Denver, Salt Lake and Portland markets are valuable and cannot be ignored by the networks. The networks need viewers who are awake at a 7 or 7:30 pst start. The east coast and midwest have had a full day by 9:30 or 10:30 pm. Not a good kickoff time for those viewers.

 

As far as adding some of the teams you mentioned i am not qualified to know their true value. As a business operator i would want to know my value. Lets say the 10 remaining teams can get an annual value of $40 million each then new members would have to bring that equivalent number or take less for the life of the first grant of rights money.

 

The BIG12 teams have the Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston markets. And consider that Baylor, TCU, Houston and TT will be competing in time slots head to head with Texas and Texas A & M.

 

What game will Texas fans watch?

Texas/LSU or Baylor/Cal? Texas A & M/Bama or Houston/Oregon State?

The networks know that answer and are willing to pay for that game. Any time Oklahoma plays any SEC school they will attract more TV viewers than OK State against the PAC.

 

You can bring in the Texas TV market into the PAC but you arent bringing in the glamour teams...

 

No offense to our BIG12 forum members but a year ago the BIG12 came to and needed the PAC12. A year later nothing has changed the BIG12 needs the PAC10. The numbers dont lie.

 

The PAC needs to take its time and choose wisely. Any PAC team that moves to the BIG12 potentially will make less money in the long run.

 

SDSU and FSU will not move the meter for the BIG12. Both those schools would have their athletes incur extensive travel. Just like the 2 traitors.

 

Neither school would move the meter for the PAC. However those schools could still get a big raise and not get full shares. They are in the foot print of the PAC and should be members when the time is right.

 

Hopefully the PAC wont be like the guy in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade who chose poorly.

[David Marsh]

SDSU is all but a lock for expansion... And I feel this is regardless of whether or not the PAC is able to retain UCLA, though that is a long shot but I do feel the powers at be are going to squeeze them pretty hard.

 

SDSU isn't as big as UCLA or USC but will be a decent addition and over time I do feel like they will probably help elevate and establish a bigger and better market. 

 

Beyond SDSU ... Oklahoma State is probably the next best option but getting them would be very difficult. They are looking at the opportunity to be a big fish in the pond and if they think they have a big enough pond to be comfortable in then they are not moving. 

 

Next options would probably be UNLV or Nevada, it's weird that so much for the PAC goes on in Vegas and there isn't even a PAC team in the state. Neither really offer much in terms of sporting value right now but being in a better conference will elevate them over time. The media market is kind of meh but we really don't have a whole lot of great options. 

 

Colorado State and Utah State I think could be interesting options. Neither are as good as their big brothers in Colorado and Utah respectfully but at the same time it does feel like in a way throwing those two distance PAC schools a bone. 

 

This would allow Utah and Colorado to have another couple games in the season that are rather local and not require much traveling. 

 

BYU would probably be a better option but overall BYU has always been a school that likes to dictate terms and they aren't always a team player. There are a couple reasons why they only recently decided to rejoin a conference. 1 ease of scheduling and 2 the big-12 is desperate enough that they were probably happy to give BYU some reasonable terms.

 

Right now the PAC needs team players. 

[NJDuck]

I think my preference would be for Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal be invited to the Big 10.  Joining UCLA and (USC ).  It's hard for me to even mention USC without wanting to "You Know."  This would give a 6 team pod or 5 team pod if Cal is not invited in the West.  It will provide us the most money per school, in turn will help all sports for each university to survive.

 

I think if the remaining 10 teams are going to galvanize together they should go after SDSU, FSU or UNLV (Tier 1 research school).  Las Vegas is a vastly growing city which will prove to be a valuable TV market for the Pac-12 with a footprint in Nevada.  Pac-12 has already made Las Vegas the city of choice for championship games in football and basketball.

 

I would go after BYU.  I believe if they had a choice of conference they would choose Pac-12  over Big 12.  They are strong in athletics and ranked number 21 in academics amongst all universities in the country.  They have a strong brand and a big fan base.  Pairs well with Utah.

 

Go after Houston, TCU, OSU.  This would give us Dallas/Ft Worth and Houston TV market.  From what I have read, OSU has a strong alumni fan presence in the Dallas/Ft Worth area.

 

That would give us a footprint in the Pacific, Mountain, Central time zones with a 16 team conference.

 

Edited August 6, 2022 by NJDuck