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Dan Lanning is Embracing the Middle Eight Theory

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Football is a sport of bizarre statistics that mostly seem irrelevant, but if you dive into them, they tell a greater story. If while reading through Oregon football news you’ve dismissed some stats reported about Oregon dominating the “middle eight” of a game, you can be forgiven. This is kind of a weird stat to be throwing around; after all, ...

 
 
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Football is a sport of bizarre statistics that mostly seem irrelevant, but if you dive into them, they tell a greater story. If while reading through...
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David, thanks for writing about the "middle 8." Since I learned about this earlier in the year from a Dan Lanning press conference, I've been paying attention to this period of time in a game and realized how important it was to the Ducks. The stats certainly bear this out!

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David, you did a great job of describing this theory.  You summarized your article by saying, "This is part of a well thought out and executed game plan..." Isn't it nice to have a head coach who is using every tool and strategy to make Oregon successful!

 

Your description was well thought out and easy to understand.  Thank you!

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 It’s not a coincidence that almost every pregame coin toss the team that wins defers to get the ball after halftime. It can certainly have a lot to with the outcome of a game if you can score twice without the opponent touching the ball on offense. Pretty much like a turnover.

 

 Thanks David.

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While I think it's a very real and relevant stat - and I acknowledge Lanning's focus on it to very good effect - I sure hope he and the team aren't so sold into it that when it doesn't work out for them they experience a team let-down.  Every team Oregon is going to play from now on is going to be aware of this (if they weren't already!).  

 

But I will agree: when the Ducks score last in the 1st Half and 1st in the 2nd Half it can have a devastating effect on the opponent.  Just don't count on it or rely on it.

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Great stuff David, and it sure ties into the "shortening the game" element I discussed, but also is a part of the "efficient offense."  We are seeing some high-caliber coaching at Oregon!

 

Dan Lanning_Fox Sports Video.jpg

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 11/2/2022 at 9:45 AM, Mic said:

But I will agree: when the Ducks score last in the 1st Half and 1st in the 2nd Half it can have a devastating effect on the opponent.  Just don't count on it or rely on it.

Though they cannot entirely control who has the ball and when in these middle minutes what they do have control over is their mentality and making in-game decisions around that mentality. Basically... its phase 2 - the aggressive phase of the game. What is Oregon going to do? Be aggressive and try to score as many points as possible before the half. 

 

Not getting the ball after the half? That still means play aggressive and maybe call a few different pressure packages to force getting the ball back. Lanning doesn't have a guarantee of getting the ball after half time but he does have control over how he wants his team to go after the ball. 

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The middle 8 has definitely been our sweet spot. Our OL play provides us a huge advantage on offense. They have been very instrumental in helping Bo Nix elevate his game beyond anyone’s expectations.
 

Heisman watchlist…anyone expect that? 

 

When our OL, and Bo Nix are playing well together, the offense can play fast and gain chunk yardage through the air, or on the ground. We are forcing defenses to defend the entire field. 
 

Watching this team move the ball with relative ease is a sign of both solid coaching, and elite players that have bought into executing the game plans.

 

I hope their best is yet to come. 

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Great observation on the technical in game coaching DL and staff are doing. Although the UCLA game wasn't cited, the Ducks scored at 6:34 in the 2nd qtr and spotted UCLA a FG at 3:00. Then they executed a near perfect drive culminating with a Nix to Franklin TD with 6 seconds left to go into the half at 31-13.

 

After the early onside kick (huevos grandes, DL) and subsequent TD, that score as the half ran out was a gut punch to the Chipper and crew. The Bruins ate up six minutes at the start of the 3rd to yield only 3 points, then Oregon essentially put the game away on the next drive. 

 

Perhaps not specifically within that middle 8 time frame, but pretty damn close. The nod to that kind of coaching exhibited by the previous regime was a pistol plunge for the the last eight plays of the half, followed by the mirror image of it in the 3rd qtr. Somebody check my math, but I'll bet I'm not far off.

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On 11/2/2022 at 12:03 PM, EastBayDuckDad said:

Perhaps not specifically within that middle 8 time frame, but pretty damn close. The nod to that kind of coaching exhibited by the previous regime was a pistol plunge for the the last eight plays of the half, followed by the mirror image of it in the 3rd qtr. Somebody check my math, but I'll bet I'm not far off.

You have it right I'm pretty sure. Lanning is really following more of a philosophy for the middle of the game than adhering strictly to the middle eight minutes. 

 

If you go just one more minute earlier in the second quarter against cal Oregon scored another touchdown... That would be around 5 minutes left in the half.

 

Technically it is outside of the middle right so it's not recorded as a part of the stat but it does show just how aggressive this philosophy is in the game and how it could exhaust opposing teams.

 

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Bingo. Great story. Thank you. It gives context to Lanning's aggressive and excellent clock management. Remember at USC in 2010, the Natty season?  The Ducks got the gall back on their own 4 with 32 seconds remaining in first half. Announcer Chris Fowler notes that the Ducks are up by 12 points and will likely just run the clock out. Kirk Herbstreet says, yes, but on the other hand, he says, this IS Chip Kelly. As he finishes the sentence, Darren Thomas fires long ball to Josh Huff for 57 yard gain.

 

As your story points out, that kind of behavior is demoralizing. Oregon didn't score again but the aggressiveness of that play sent a message that USC had to think about during halftime--on their way to a blowout loss.

 

 

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