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Oregon Ducks Football: Nix’s Shot at the Heisman

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In Bo Nix’s last season as a part of the Oregon Ducks football program, he has one more shot at the Heisman Trophy. With Oregon’s recruiting momentum and stellar offseason, this will likely be his best shot of any season previously to turn the corner, solidify his draft stock for the NFL in 2024, and earn college’s biggest individual award in the ...

 
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In Bo Nix's last season as a part of the Oregon Ducks football program, he has one more shot at the Heisman Trophy. With Oregon’s recruiting...
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Thanks, Alex, for giving us an optimistic plan for Nix and the Ducks!  Here's hoping this happens!

 

Go Ducks!

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I love your take on the Heisman, Alex.  Thanks.

 

I'd take one tiny issue with your analysis, though ... strength of schedule driving the winner of the Heisman.  The Ducks SOS last year was tougher than USC's, even though USC played Notre Dame (and two pushovers).  USC's SOS ranked 39th in the country.  (The Ducks were 37th.) The same sort of situation will occur this year.  Like USC, the Ducks also play a predicted ranked team this year (Texas Tech) that they didn't have last year and also have an otherwise tougher OOC schedule. 

 

But as you suggested, Williams or Nix could well cement the award on Nov. 11 at Autzen.

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IMHO, its important that usc, uw and the beavers do their part and win all their OOC games. Then win in early to mid October so the late October/November games are high profile events.

 

However, victories by Utah over Florida and Baylor in September are critical to raising not only the conference perception but elevating Utahs SOS. There will be no BO Heisman without a Duck victory on the road against the Utes.

 

Gonna be a fun ride watching OBD's

In 2023. Go Ducks - Go Bo!

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The Heisman voters are first and foremost sports journalists.  That makes the award essentially a CFB popularity contest amongst journalists.  The voters have a tendency to favor QB's as you mentioned and I would add that they also strongly favor a good narrative. 

 

What Bo needs to be on the Heisman stage is a good story on how his play seems to have elevated his team.  Oregon fans would state that this is obvious but even after last years extraordinary play some journalists are looking for the narrative to turn on Bo.  They are ready to write stories about the return of Auburn Bo and how last year it was KD, or the O-line.. or whatever.

 

What I would say is that if Bo plays extremely well AND Oregon finds a lot of success then the narrative is that it was Bo lifting the team.  If that happens and his QB stats are respectable then he will be on the stage in NYC.  To win the award is harder and will require Oregon to have a special season in my mind and most importantly the narrative coming out of the Washington and USC games needs to be that Bo "looked" like the better QB.

 

All of that is pretty subjective and reason to take the Heisman award with a couple blocks of salt.  Working against Bo is that Oregon is first and foremost a running team.  Bo is most likely going to average under 35 passes a game in 2023 unless the season goes off the rails.  That means his stats aren't likely to be as impressive as other QBs with the exception of his completion percentage as he's only likely to throw high percentage passes with the option.  

 

Ultimately I would say if Bo wins the Heisman he's going to have to thank the Oregon defense for taking a huge step up in 2023 allowing the Oregon buzz to reach a crescendo and the Bo buzz along with it. 

 

 

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Terrific take. Thank you, Alex.

 

SOS - I do not see SOS as a problem. Most likely OR ST, USC, UW, and UTAH will all be ranked when the Ducks play these teams. And if Oregon plays in the conference champ game that will also be a game vs a top-25 opponent.

 

And Texas Tech may not be a top-25 team when Oregon plays TT in Lubbock in week 2 but the Red Raiders have a good shot to finish in the top-25 or slightly lower if Tyler Shough stays healthy. TT is 8-0 in games Shough has started and finished. TT ran more plays from the LOS than any other team in the country in 2022. Defeated Texas and humbled Ole Miss in its bowl game. Lubbock, TX will be Buddy Holly-like rockin' for this game.

 

Biggest barriers to a Heisman for Nix. Will he be showcased enough in games that are watched in the East and Midwest? Will the OL play near to the excellent play of the 2022 OL? Will Nix and Stein be a fit? Will the D and special teams improve to help the Ducks not give up leads late in the game?

 

And as you so noted Alex, will Nix and the Ducks take down Williams and the Trojans in November in Autzen?  This game has the potential to be one of the biggest regular-season games in the nation in 2023.

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On 4/4/2023 at 11:05 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

IMHO, its important that usc, uw and the beavers do their part and win all their OOC games. Then win in early to mid October so the late October/November games are high profile events.

 

However, victories by Utah over Florida and Baylor in September are critical to raising not only the conference perception but elevating Utahs SOS. There will be no BO Heisman without a Duck victory on the road against the Utes.

 

Gonna be a fun ride watching OBD's

In 2023. Go Ducks - Go Bo!

Great take. DO NOT SELL TEXAS TECH SHORT! 

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When we watched MM win the Heisman the Ducks offense was a scoring machine. The offense averaged over 45 points and opponents around 24 points. Games against lesser opponents were over by halftime and MM was sitting on the bench for much of the 2nd half.
 

For Nix to be a legit Heisman contender, his passing efficiency, total touchdowns, and the team’s average score will need to be amongst the highest in the nation.
 

A high scoring offense will draw the needed attention.

 

However, I also agree that Nix would need help from the defense. With the quality QBs in the PAC 12, the defense will need to improve. Otherwise, Nix’s Heisman campaign doesn’t gain very much traction. 
 

 

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The odds for Nix are the same for the 2023 team making the four-team playoff: low.  Only if the team goes undefeated, scores a ton, (I agree with Drake) and Nix lights it up can he and the Ducks have a chance.  And if the Ducks did go undefeated--both parties would deserve those rewards!

 

Bo Nix Poster_Fox Sports Video (2).jpg

                             But it is possible!

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Mr. FishDuck

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It's also critically important that Will Stein identifies solid 2nd and 3rd receiving options, Troy Franklin will not be enough.  Whether that takes the form of Treshon Holden/Terrance Furgeson or some other duo combination, Nix needs 2 other receivers that will have at minimum 500 yards each of receiving for the season.

Edited by kirklandduck
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