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idontrollonshobbas

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Posts posted by idontrollonshobbas

    Recruiting is Still More Important Than the Transfer Portal

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    Over the years, the JC recruiting stream had dried up.  Not sure why?  Maybe with academic advising and tutors, the JC route became less of an academic route than before.  In the late 90's, the Ducks lived and died by the JC transfer, particularly at DL.  James Rose, Junior Siavii, Chris Solomona, etc.   Akili was another.

     

    The transfer portal is going to harm a lot of students as well....basically it allows teams to shed players that aren't working out for whatever reason.  As the game becomes more "professional" it is going to benefit the elite players.  What will be the incentive for institutions to honor scholarships (a la Cam McCormick) when given the transfer portal option?

     

    These may be some of the unintended consequences of the new era.  

     

     

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    Animal House

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    Fawn Leibowitz?

     

    The Omega House (Neidermayer!) was the frat I pledged (Phi Kappa Psi) in 1983.   In 1985 or 86, the Delta House (which was a women's health clinic I believe?) was condemned and demolished.  In between those two events, we held memorial parties inside for weeks.  Entertainment Tonight did a remote report from the site on the eve of destruction....my called the house immediately after seeing us on TV in the background.

     

    As others mentioned the interiors of the Delta House were shot in the Sigma Nu house which bookended the Delta House on the side of East 11th.  Autzen Stadium has changed a lot....the Dexter lake Club, not so much.

     

     

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    A Super Fast, Way Too Early Prediction for 2022

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    On 1/11/2022 at 10:22 AM, UtahDuck said:

    You have a lot to unpack here so i will try and keep this simple because i disagree with a lot of what you said.

     

    I do believe Cristobal held us back with a lot of what you said(playcalling, clock management, and scheme). This isn't to say that injuries didn't play a roll. I look specifically at ILB where for a good portion of the season we were down to 1 starter, 1 safety converted to ILB and Walk ons. There's a reason we got passed all over in the middle of the field... We had 3-5 guys injured in this depth. 

     

    Recruiting, Yes, Rivals, 247 and on3 make a living projecting recruiting. but to dictate that a SEC 2 star across the board is better than a west 4 star is just silly. If these rating systems actually projected an Southern 2 star to be better than an oregon 4 star they would be ranked as such because I can promise they make more money of southern subscribers than they do PNW. 

     

    With rankings in general you need to take it with a bit of salt anyway. I think it's a good baseline but it isn't the end all be all final answer. It's also why you need to look at how many schools have offered a player and what schools are offering the player. Would you take a player that is a three star that has offers from 10 SEC schools, 9 Big 10 schools, and 11 Pac 12 or a 4 star that has three Pac 12 offers... 

     

    To top off recruiting, no system is perfect, players will get over evaluated, players will get under evaluated, walk ons will earn scholarships and players will be dropped from the team. it's the nature of college athletics. But you could say the same about the NFL, Tua, Trevor Lawrence both got better evaluations than herbert yet everybody would pick herbert today.

     

    With that I don't think the Oregon teams recruited by Cristobal were/are overrated. their are inevitably players that are overrated and underrated. And to understand this go to the 247 and you can quickly view the players that signed and how many other offers those players had. Oregon was frequently beating out SEC teams including alabama for players. If anything I would say this team had an issue at developing talent. Especially at key areas like QB.

     

    As a final note, I think 8 wins is a bad season for oregon next year and the O/U should be at 10. I would say UGA is a sure loss. after that I think you have a lot wiggle room. BYU is a meh team that took advantage of some really bad teams in the pac last year. at best this game is a 50/50 game to date. depending on how the QB shakes out in spring this game moves to 75/25 Oregon. WSU is probably 65/35 or 60/40 game. Stanford is bad, and clock management and playcalling alone should fix that game. 90/10. OSU is losing way more than they are gaining. Oregon should have an easy time with them. 75/25. UA will be interesting especially in the desert. The game should be 80/20 but to me it feels more 60/40 or 55/45. as for UT I think they should get the benefit of the doubt and be 40/60 or 30/70 unless but as it is another late season game oregon could close that gap to 50/50 if they make the right improvements. 

     

    All in all oregon should be a minimum 9-3 for 2022. I mean oregon suffered a ton of injuries had horrid play calling and clock management and had brown starting this season and we went 10-2 during the regular season. If some of that is fixed oregon is easily 11-1. 

    Thanks, Utah....I am back off the ledge now.  I appreciate the thoughtful pushback.  

     

    I can go with the narrative that the problem with the roster isn't talent, but development.  Plus scheme played a role in dampening enthusiasm some I am guessing.

     

    As for recruiting rankings.....perhaps I am guilty of oversimplification.  I wish there was a look-back at recruiting ranking efficiency. I have to operate off of my memory and anecdtoe.  But, the number of PNW 4 and 5 star talent that has not lived up to potential that I remember is not small.  Most of them beat out by the 2 and 3 star players on our roster.  We know that in the past, site moderator did rankings (poorly, I might add) which colors my judgment as well.

     

    Maybe the problem with the rankings for me is scale.  Not all 5 stars are alike.  KT was probably worth 7 stars for example.  In the 3 star category the range is huge.....a high 3 star is degrees above a low 3 star it seems.

     

    In any event, I hope you are right and the sky is the limit next year.....I thought the same thing last year too.

    A Super Fast, Way Too Early Prediction for 2022

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted

    On 1/11/2022 at 9:03 AM, UtahDuck said:

    I don't know if I am ready to give Oregon a 9-0 in conference record. The pac is bad, but honestly no team has run the table in conference so it is hard for me to see it happening with a first year head coach.

     

    Teams oregon should run over. UW, Stan, CAL, COL, UCLA, and OSU,

     

    Teams I have Questions about. WSU,  and AZ.

     

    Hard fought games. UT.

     

    I think as a whole the P12 north is really bad, I don't see CAL getting any better. OSU needs to prove a lot more otherwise I can't expect them of being +/- a game within .500. UW has a mess to clean up and with all of the defections and the fact the staff plans to keep the current exclusive recruiting plan i'm stoked.

     

    The only north team I have questions on is WSU. following Rolo's firing WSU went 3-3. The three losses included a 2 point loss to byu a 14 point loss to Oregon and a 3 point loss Central Michigan. They beat ASU, AZ and UW. So my first part is they didn't really beat anyone during this but they also kept some close games and finished out well and make a bowl game. This was all done while running an offense that no coach had called before because Rolo ran the Run & Shoot.

     

    To also follow up, with WSU, I think they are upgrading at QB. Cameron ward is transfering from Incarnate Word as a 4 star player Cameron through 4648 Yards 47 TD and 10 INT's completing 65% of his passes. He will in my opinion be the most accomplished QB in the pac 12 north next season. While Jackson JR at WSU is gone they still have very accomplished Harris contemplating a return and Stribling to catch balls. This team has a good chance to improve upon their 7-6 record in 2022.

     

    The other team I have questions on is AZ. Look AZ has been bad for years but with that they currently have the number 2 class in the pac 12 in recruiting(247) and while some of that may be due to the size of their class, they still have the number 6 class per average recruit. What makes me have questions about AZ is primarily at WR. AZ has added UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing who is really good and their best recruit is the Wide receiver who flipped from Oregon Tetiaroa McMillan. Elite Wide receivers can make up for a lot of deficiencies in the game. AZ also had the worst luck at QB in 2021 with 3 making starts. I think Jordon McCloud should be a decent to above average QB when given the time. 

     

    If I were a betting man(most days i'm not). I would think one of these games has the greatest potential to be an upset. Both are away games, both are earlyish games in the season(week 4-WSU, Week 6-AZ) for a brand new coaching staff. I also honestly think both teams are better than their 2021 record and both have made key player improvements in the offseason. 

    Plus, De Laura is going to UA now.  

     

    Through the years and coaches, these are the teams that always beat us when they shouldn't:

     

    1. Stanford.  Home or Away, they love to be our lone North division loss.  

    2. WSU: see above.

    3. Away in the Desert late in the season: whether UA or the Fork, they play like the Steelers when we come to town.  Often includes a starting QB season-ending injury as well.

     

    I usually reject mono-causal explanations, but this board convinced me that CMC was a game day weakness most Saturdays.  Goofy scheme,  rigid play-calling, poor clock management.   Injuries clearly played a role, but you have to expect attrition every season.....so roster management may be a piece of the problem in 2021?

     

    I frankly wonder about the "talent composition score" or whatever it is that the recruiting sites tout as the holy grail of championship team construction.  Sure, the past NC's have had stacked rosters.  But, those sites hype recruiting for subscriptions.  They get more excited about recruiting than the games half of the time.  

     

    I think the ratings are less accurate the further down the list of top guys you go.  Maybe the top 100 are pretty easy to spot and the Blue Bloods take 95% of them.  But, I feel that ranking recruits number 101-500 is pure mysticism that the sites posit as rocket science.  For example, I will take any southern 2-star over a 4-star West Coast recruit.  I think especially OR and WA recruits are overrated. 

     

    So, did the Ducks underperform this year because of Mario, AB, injuries or was the roster talent overrated?  To predict an 11-1 season next year indicates to me that one thinks the problem was mostly MC.  While I have come around to his deficiencies as a coach, I wonder if his recruiting prowess was, in part, a fallacy of the rankings and chasing top 10 classes rather than proper evaluation?  

     

    If so, Lanning has even more work to do than better schemes, game plans and clock management.  He has to maximize a roster that may have a lot of bloat on it. Plus, he has to overcome the monkey on our backs of that list above...the teams that slay dreams.

     

    I thought 11-1 was possible this season.   Not so sure I have that confidence going into 2022, despite Darren's convincing arguments.   If I am betting the ranch (it would have to be with a gun to my head), I say the O/U wins is 8.  Definite losses: Georgia, Utah.   Possible losses: BYU, Stanford (always), WSU, UA, OSU

    Will the Transfer Portal Make or Break the Huskies?

    in Our Beloved Ducks

    Posted · Edited by idontrollonshobbas

    I am guessing that the bottomless pit of Husky hatred that triggers the bile ducts of this Duck fan may be a generational thing.  Happy's post about the Apple Cup mirrors Duck fan experience with the Buttsniffer fans in the same era.  Those 20th Century leghumper fans were the epitome of graceless cads.  There will never be enough Schadenfreude at the doog downfall for me.

     

    But if I were a guy who was an undergrad in this Century I might be wondering what the fuss is about.  After all we have owned their hidebound haunches since Wheaton scored.

     

    I suggest a 100-level first-year course in Duck football history that is mandatory for all incoming students.  It could include some video clips from some oldtimers recounting the dark days of Husky humiliation: the urine bags, the filling of Autzen stadium, the RV's lining I5 adorned with purple and gold bunting.  The night on the town in Eugene after another beatdown with chanting and fight songs echoing off the buttes.....

     

    I couldn't teach it though without some serious PTSD therapy. The father of my Lady Friend in those days was a Husky alum with one of those RV's......and I had to wait on their table at OES after the game.  

     

     

     

     

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