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Mike West
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Posts posted by Mike West
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Wow,
I look forward to digesting these "scrimmages" when I have the time.
My quick thoughts are as follows:
Michigan is underrated (sorry Jon- I think that defense is better than advertised, and HC Moore is another very good coach following Jim Harbaugh - as in David Shaw good).
Ohio State has the best defense in the country. Same issue on offense till further notice: OL and QB question marks (not sure they're elite enough at those positions).
I also believe Bama beats UGA (sorry Duck-Dawg fans, but Bama is still more talented overall, and DeBoer didn't show how lethal that offense is going to be - my opinion of course).
Haven't seen Texas, but "my sources" tell me they will be more formidable on defense than people think.
Haven't seen Nebraska, but same thing ("my sources") , except the offense is going to win them plenty of "toss up" games.
I'll check both out this summer and give my update.
Haven't seen Mizzou yet. I'm intrigued though. Not sure they have enough depth and talent In the Box. They sure have very good talent at the skill positions though.
I believe Tennessee is one very good QB from surprising people this year. Time will tell.
Ole Miss is trying to hide their talent. I'll have to wait till fall to assess them. On paper, they are very dangerous. But paper is mighty thin isn't it?
LSU still needs a defense , but they are going to spoil some teams this year.
Georgia? Same as it ever was. But that loss to Bama tells me good coaching, and mistake free football is all you need to hang with them, and maybe steal a W.
Auburn is also going to spoil somebody's season, including maybe Bama.
Penn State losing last year's main WR target is a major blow to their title hopes (bad career move for him though- he would have gotten better looks with that new former Buckeye WR joining the mix).
Utah...If they can step up their usually decent Defense, they are playoff bound. They don't have enough talent to challenge the Blue Bloods though.
USC? I don't think they have enough talent on defense. Nice QB, but he'll have to win games for them. Not sure he's that talented. Not sure they're mentally tough enough either.
Clemson has a good enough defense to stall the Blue Bloods, but that offense can't score enough. Think Georgia before Kirby Smart.
FSU comes back to the regular pack, despite a damn good HC.
No, Miami isn't joining the club.
Need to see A&M. I really like HC Elko. He may be playing possum right now. He's said it's taking him longer than expected to get the chaos in order. Possible smoke screen to also hide his talent?
The SEC is still too deep for the BiG, but Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin are only a good enough QB away from adding major depth to the conference.
OBD...
Man. I suspected HC Lanning knew his DL was stacked. Now we know. This team is in play for a deep playoff run. Now, it's up to learning how to make teams beat them by playing mistake free ball.
If DC Lupoi and OC Stein "up" their game and adjust on each drive of each game, oooh- they could really step into a title game and make some noise. Big "if" at this point.
I see a lot of Bama versus Michigan type games this year. It truly is going to be one of the best regular seasons in the history of College Football. And I'm.not blowing smoke here.
Every elite team, has an Achilles Heel. Some teams on the bubble have enough talent to hit that bullseye and walk away with an upset. Coaching has never been more important.
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On 4/28/2024 at 8:13 AM, Solar said:
It's just a spring game as we all know (Jeff Lockie went 12 for 12 once).
So many things had to be discounted. Pocket presence by all QBs was bad, and efficiency was bad, but lots of potential explanations for that.
All can throw a good ball at least. It seems clear that per the order of taking the field it DJ Moore is past Novasad already on the depth chart, despite this difference of experience in this offense.
Solar,
I "hate you" but love you. I came away impressed overall. But I also thought the QBs struggled early because they held onto the ball "too long".
Not sure that's a long term deal, and I can only speculate they were pining to get those deep shots completed.
They all adjusted. But in the two tight games they'll play this year, those "mistakes" may cost the team the game (Ohio State and Michigan both looked very good on defense).
think we keep Novosad if we get him the right NIL deal. He's definitely a keeper, and it behooves Oregon to keep him off another roster.
On another note-I think OC Stein is going to be hard to keep. Not sure he wants to be a HC, but he's another Chip Kelly. Yes, he's that good.
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The sooner they reinstate player movement restrictions the better. Everything else will settle down once we know what the landscape looks like.
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Maybe they should allow the onside kick when the game is in the balance.
Safety does matter, but are we serious here?
Football is becoming more like softball, can't hit people - that is the appeal of the sport.
As long as a player isn't intentionally trying to hurt another player, let them hit.
If I want to watch softball, I can watch Oklahoma dominate everyone again.
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Another juicy article Duckster!!!
So much to chew on... simple, direct, precise.
I have to think this one over a bit.
I recall the nail biting be we all felt before the last PAC12 title game he ever. I had an all 22 look from one of the endzones.
I was worried sick all game because I saw a familiar flaw that resembled a throwback to Chip versus David Shaw back to back years.
Might write an article about it.
You're on point though...NIL is running the show. Culture, identity and talent really matter.
Philosophy, and game chops matter as well. You hit the bullseye on Sewell. He was a fish out of water in Lanning's scheme. As was Mase Funa.
Lanning has his boys on defense. The body type, the athletic type etc. He only pursued two baddies on the interior defensive line. He has to replace four very stout guys. Is that a sign he believes he's got the boys he needs to execute his scheme?
A title team needs a money QB, and a monster front seven. Check and IDK.
The one thing those Fuskies had over us was they controlled the line of scrimmage all three games. It's a wonder Bo and company dropped thirty plus all three games.
It seemed like the secondary was the weakness. But in actuality, Michael Penix rarely hit the turf. I have my preferences for running a defense, but it's not my call. But the QB can't be comfortable all game. His butt needs to hit the ground...often.
For me, OBD needs to keep a powerful offense at 21-23 points. By any means necessary. Lanning is a defensive guy, who was smart enough to hire a powerful OC. Let's see if he can give his offense the opportunity to score 23-28 on an elite defense.
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On 3/7/2024 at 8:44 AM, MicroBurst61 said:
Careful where you tread "College-NFLite league! There is Definitely a Bigger Fish than you can ever be and you step on their toes and you will be swallowed up faster than the changes that have been made to get to a NFLite league.
Careful for what you wish for.
Well,
I believe the players and the NIL collectives are driving that bus...
The players are getting greedy, and boosters are falling into bidding wars for, in most cases unproven players.
Straight from the NFL playbook. And players are going to stop performing soon enough. Even if it costs them a healthy NFL contract.
Worse, the Power 2 aren't really considering the players as they manuever through the playoff process.
So I agree with you. The NFL is already chaffed at the playoffs starting the first week the big boys play on Saturdays...
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If no one dislikes you you're doing something wrong.
Poor Beaver fans. They had the most influential President in the PAC12 for a decade, and he didn't have the foresight to protect his school, and enhance his Athletic Department's Brand. Now they suffer for it.
Oregon State has one of the best Engineering Schools in the country. If he protected his more visible Brand like he maintained the reputation of that school, the PAC12 would be alive and kicking right now.
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On 3/6/2024 at 10:31 PM, Nevada Dawg said:
As for that happening to college football, I very strongly believe that your fears will be warranted. And for fans of teams outside of the Power 2, what's to keep them in the game (and larger viewing public) if their guys have little chance at ever winning the brass ring. I really do fear for college football and will say again that calling it "College" football is a misnomer.
It has basically become minor league pro football, with the Power 2 being equivalent to Triple A in baseball, the other two former P5 conferences filling the Double A slots, and the others falling somewhere in the lower minor league levels.The NFL has to love it.
That's a very good analogy.
Someone trolled Nick Saban last night, claiming he couldn't handle the new paradigm. I bit back- explaining some kids are going to ruin the game for a while lot of other kids- and Saban realized it more than most.
I don't think 17 million people are going to be watching Ohio State versus Michigan in the future. That golden goose is going to get cooked!!!
Not sure the TV execs (And the P2) are looking that far ahead. I know the players aren't. What a shame.
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On 3/6/2024 at 10:38 AM, Jon Joseph said:
Taking down Ohio State in Eugene could be a necessity if Oregon wants to play in the B1G champ game in Indianapolis in December
You could be right. Depends on Michigan and Penn State. I fear Sherrone Moore is another David Shaw, and I'd QB Drew Allar has an OC that opens that offense up, the Nittany Lions can make the Conference Title race a nail biting affair.
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On 3/6/2024 at 8:51 AM, Duckster said:
Hey Mike ... thanks for all the kind words
When I read it, I was like WOW.
It was thorough, thought provoking, and timely. It should have been a FishDuck article.
I'm following several folks on X (Twitter). Nothing against anyone else, mostly because I've decided to get more info from Blue Blood fans, but I would have posted that for sure on X.
The discussion would have been lively (an Ohio State fan trolled us this afternoon in fact, so your post would have been perfect).
I can't wait for the second post, and I'm going to find a way to post this thread.
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On 3/6/2024 at 11:15 AM, Jon Joseph said:
Thanks again, Mike. Direct pay-for-play, negotiations with a players' union, and an 'official' Super League with anti-trust and other protection against liability afforded by Congress are coming and will, like it or not, be here sooner than we can expect.
You're spot on Jon! And I agree, coming sooner than we think. Not sure this is going to be good for college football though.
I love the idea of seeing the Blue Bloods squaring off each week, but then we already have that: the NFL. I personally only watch the elite matchups and the playoffs.
I don't want that to happen to college football.
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On 3/6/2024 at 10:10 AM, jrw said:
Currently, there's a enormous money bubble that's inflating, among other things, big-time college football. When that bubble bursts, which is surely will, things will look much different. Different how I'm not smart enough to know, but what we have now is not sustainable.
I've been feeling that way since COVID hit us. I have no idea how the G5 are going to field teams in the near future.
As elitist as I am, I always thought it was cool to watch kids that killed it in high school, but weren't good enough to play for the Blue Bloods could still play- and be on TV!
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On 3/6/2024 at 10:35 AM, JabbaNoBargain said:
Interesting stuff!
This may be pretty obvious, but I think it’s good to revisit the results of the last 10 years with a 4-team playoff.
Only 15 different schools appeared in the 4-team playoff.
It gets more consolidated when you realize only 6 different schools won the playoff, with 80% coming from the big2, SEC(6), B1G(2), and Clemson (2).
So the better question might be, “did they already ruin college football”. If ruined means “very few teams outside the big 2 winning the playoff”, that’s already been achieved.
I think every suggested expansion format will help on the variety of schools front.
Excellent point. But for Michigan winning the Title this year, one could also say the SEC has pushed their weight around considerably.
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On 3/6/2024 at 9:06 AM, mikethehiker said:
Thanks for the great article Mike! I appreciated your comment about the ACC possibly being the only conference with any prospect of winning a national title outside the Power Two.
It's been clear that power has been consolidating towards a few programs even within these conferences. This has always been true, but with NIL, the transfer portal, and expanded playoffs, these top teams are able to build systems that ensure their power is entrenched for much longer periods of time.
The introduction of the 85 scholarship limit instituted a quasi salary cap that led to the golden age of college football parity and popularity. NIL and transfer portal have given top programs new levers to horde top talent and avoid any lapses of success. Expanding the playoffs to 12 teams ensures the super powers can lose 1-3 games and still win championships.
For teams on the outside looking up, you are not going to beat 3-4 NFL caliber teams in a playoff. You could have the best season in school history only to smashed in the 1st round of a playoffs. So at what point do those teams throw in the towel and opt for a new system that reverts to elevating the student in student-athlete?
Right now, it looks like the Power 2 and ACC are strong in number, but the likes of Rutgers, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, and Arkansas just have to hang on and enjoy the revenue. They don't have to win anything.
If Oregon wasn't top tier, I'd probably have thrown in the towel on college football. The only way to make our voices heard as fans is to turn off the TV.
I believe NIL formalized a practice the Blue Bloods had been using for decades. The Transfer Portal allows them to consolidate power further.
I'm impressed Ole Miss exploited both to their advantage. I certainly feel for the likes of Utah and North Carolina- teams in the Second Tier of the P4 conferences.
Personally, I believe the latest P2 propos is generous. It's the only way I see the Big 12 getting two teams in the playoffs, while Clemson and FSU may occasionally crash the party if they stay in the ACC.
I think it's time to add two more divisions to College football, each with their own playoffs. I fear the TV execs won't pony up enough to allow the teams currently listed as D1 programs to continue fielding football teams.
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Had to look at the comments before pitching in.
Elite in my eyes must include defeating the elite teams. Has happened twice in the past 12 years ( losing record). Miss.
Elite involves a killer instinct mentality. Lesser teams never have a chance. Check.
Elite teams enter the fray as elite when they climb back from self inflicted wounds. Especially against elite teams. They must finish however. Mixed.
I recognize Dan Lanning has been criticized for taking risks. The first Washington loss told me we had arrived. The second loss told me we still need more players,but the coaches need to play the game they're in, not the just the one they gameplanned for.
OBD are At the cusp.
Ryan Day and Dan Lanning are in the same spot. Their fan bases are tense, desperate, and nervous. Day has the talent advantage, the schedule advantage, and tOSU is a proven Blue Blood.
Snatch a victory in Eugene. That puts OBD in the room. But our fledging program will be mocked until we win a Natty.
I'm very interested in what DL does with this relatively young team. I plan an article myself about our prospects this year. Don't know if I can light the pages up like Duckster did (whew!), but I'm excited about our prospects, and look forward to "spitting" my thoughts regarding our future.
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On 3/3/2024 at 1:09 PM, Duckster said:
This is the first thread in a couple that I have planned for this topic. Hopefully it will engage those of us in need of something to get us through these dog days of the tepid March sports landscape. Maybe sustain us until April, and the sunshine that represents Spring Football for our OBD's. To be continued ...
Duckster,
That was a full blown article! And a damn good one at that. Looking forward to the next installment. Simply fabulous.
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Kim,
You will definitely be in my thoughts and prayers moving forward. I certainly hope you recover soon, and completely.
We miss you!!!
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I want to see how the 12 team playoffs turn out before moving on. This has become more about money and power than providing the best value the sport can offer.
I believe the powers that be need to slow down and solve some of the other issues inflicting the sport at the moment. The Recruiting cycle, and it's schedule need some fine tuning.
NIL absolutely must be addressed.
I'm glad the playoff field has expanded, but I'm not much for giving four more teams the delight of getting anihillated. This isn't basketball. Football is truly a team sport, where deep talent matters.
There aren't sixteen equally talented teams, and NIL definitely won't change that. All this dramatic change doesn't give me the feeling the best interests of the sport are a consideration to these decision makers.
Kind of reminds me of the PAC12 Exec Committee.
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Fantastic post Jon!
I for one believe Chip is more dangerous as an OC than HC. No longer encumbered with CEO duties, Chip can spend more time finding ways to carve defenses up. Let me tell you, I don't know many offensive minds that can put you in a quick hole better than Chip Kelly. I also believe incoming QB Will Howard will thrive under Kelly. He is the right mix of the kind of QB Kelly appreciates most-a very gifted runner that converts on third down very effectively (my opinion here).
IMHO, Chip is going to be a menace in the B1G. He is so good he can pick up the tempo or slow things down at the drop of a hat-especially with a guy like Howard. He has two killer RBs, and if he puts them both in the backfield, that will create massive headaches for defenses (especially if both are willing to block for each other). The most difficult thing to figure out is how well Howard will pass to a pretty good group of WRs (especially deep).
Ryan Day has a damn good defense that will be able to hold leads, and now he has an OC that can put a lot of pressure on many a defense.
So now, our fearless leader -the one and only Dan Lanning- is faced again with the challenge of dealing with not just one, but possibly two teams with superior talent, and at least one with a loaded coaching staff to boot. Not to mention Lanning's challenge of duplicating and exceeding the fairly successful performance on defense last year. Can't wait until the Spring Game!
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On 1/12/2024 at 11:24 AM, mikethehiker said:
#3 is the very rare and commendable part of this sequence - a coach keeping his word to the program and his players. What a tremendous example that is to young men in the program and across the country! It should be applauded and frankly, I hope it catches on.
I believe you got it right in your first sentence of this paragraph. I believe it will still be rare, and one recognized, celebrated.
One of the reasons Saban is retiring is that recruits are bringing in Reps demanding the top programs (Bama, Georgia, Michigan, to some extent Ohio State) match ridiculous NIL offers.
The Ole Miss RB left for money. It's annoying a LOT of coaches and there are murmurs several are considering retirement rather than deal with an arms race for recruits.
Perhaps Lanning saw the forest for the trees once his wife beat cancer. He of all people recognize the hassle of running a program like Bama.
Keep this in mind: The GOAT is staying in Tuscaloosa. If DaBoer goes there, he won't have as much a burden recruiting. Saban can be an ally on that one. Talk about setting an example. The greatest of all time will stay committed to the program he's leaving.
FishDuck brought up that brings an albatross to the next Bama coach. I don't think so in that case. DaBoer can focus on coaching all that great talent the program would still attract with Saban still there ( and I bet my bottom dollar that will be the strategy).
Bama doesn't need recruits, recruits need Bama, and DaBoer is a proven entity- one of a very small group of head coaches that can actually coach elite talent, develop said talent, and continue the Bama to the NFL pipeline.
So kids are going to have to decide:. Georgia , Bama to the NFL, or take the money and roll the dice ( because I know for sure Bama and Georgia are going to expose every flaw you've got kid, and you won't be able to run and hide).
Let's hope DL becomes the next blue blood coach to pipeline talent to the NFL. He already is a major influence in showing these kids they need to fully develop before stepping into the thunderdome.
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On 1/9/2024 at 8:41 AM, Augduck said:
Certainly there are positives that all of those coaches brought to the table with the exception of Taggart
Dan Lanning wouldn't be here if it weren't for Willie Taggart.
Everyone here calls Taggart an idiot. Well that idiot recruited the number three recruiting class before he displayed his character and poor judgement.
In other words, an idiot proved you could recruit elite talent to Eugene.
That is absolutely the most positive impact this program has ever experienced. Again,. THAT IS THE MOST POSITIVE IMPACT THIS PROGRAM HAS EVER EXPERIENCED.
Bringing an elite team of recruiters, claiming and proving we could recruit anywhere on the continent altered the course of this program forever.
That pretty much means Willie Taggart did have a positive impact on the program. Not to mention he unleashed the real Justin Herbert.
I am frustrated that I still have to point this out. Don't get to comment on why I think that is unfortunately. But it infuriates me to no end.
Willie Taggart was a net positive for this program. Bar none.
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On 1/8/2024 at 9:13 PM, HDuck said:
One thing about the 21 point loss, it does soothe the angst a bit for Huskies fans. After a bit of time, I doubt they'll rue the missed opportunity as much as Auburn 22-19 vs Oregon?
HEck,
It was Ohio State 21 Oregon 20 heading into the 4Q. Then I saw our LBs run right past gaps they were supposed to fill and low and behold it looked like a rout.
Edge guys cover the outside. That's why they call them MIDDLE LINEBACKERS.
Oh well. We didn't have much offense in the 4Q either. So once again, the "physical"
Big Ten makes us look dumb.
Where's Warren Moon and Marcus Allen when you need them?
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On 1/8/2024 at 9:38 PM, Cacker Guy said:
Ducks are right behind Georgia and Texas and ahead of Alabama in ESPN's "2024 Way-Too-Early college football Top 25."
Only non-SEC team in the top 4.
2024 Way-Too-Early college football Top 25 - ESPN
WWW.ESPN.COM
The 2023 college football season may have just ended, but Mark Schlabach already has a top 25 for next year.Way too early indeed.
Gotta love that SEC bias though.
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Surprised at the Oregon QB Room?
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
You know,
Bama won two Nattys because they kept their top two QBs back to back years. This team is potential dynasty material if Lanning and Stein are "Mac Daddy" recruiters.
It's going to take two QBs to win a Natty here. Our QB has to be a major factor in our running game. I just don't see keeping the elite defenses honest without featuring the QB as another running threat.
We're 4 deep. And I'm not concerned about DG. They guy is a playmaker. Proved that in Dallas LY. Moore will have to step up to keep Novosad at bay. That's a positive.
I'm just a hack, but my strategy would be make the defenses handle all five skill positions. Run the damn QB.