42 minutes ago, Drake said:

The Ducks know what went wrong at Autzen, and are a dangerous team as an underdog. If you can’t get fired up as a football player in this game, then sports in general isn’t your thing.

Indiana maybe the better team, but they have to prove it a second time against a very pissed off guy from their Hood. Our OL got schooled in that first game, and for that reason I think they will play better against the Indiana defensive front.

QB’s are important in this game, but for me, our OL determines whether we win this game.

I believe we win.

Drake,

You're into a theme that I also will play out in this game. Not only will motivation be key, but I believe we will dominate the line of scrimmage. And I think people will be surprised.

Could it be the new coordinators are already impacting the perform if this team? As mentioned above, did that 9 AM start effect the offensive line?

If reports are accurate, we will see a very intense output form OBD. I sure hope so, because if they come with a killer instinct, this is going to be a brutally physical game

33 minutes ago, Drake said:

The Ducks know what went wrong at Autzen, and are a dangerous team as an underdog. If you can’t get fired up as a football player in this game, then sports in general isn’t your thing.

Indiana maybe the better team, but they have to prove it a second time against a very pissed off guy from their Hood. Our OL got schooled in that first game, and for that reason I think they will play better against the Indiana defensive front.

QB’s are important in this game, but for me, our OL determines whether we win this game.

I believe we win.

Good points.

I keep hearing Indiana is the better team. I believe they are the more complete team. They use veteran players, their staff has been together for ten plus years, and they eliminated the flaws they had last year

Ohio State and oregon have more raw talent, and Indiana took away that advantage. But it required mistakes. Penn State even exposed the talent gap, so it boils down to execution.

I keep coming back to the ifs. If Oregon executes, they will shock everyone.

I'm Julie Andrews walking along the Swiss mountainside singing the hills are alive with the sound of music. Because I'm just getting the feeling Lanning has out more responsibility in his analysts and new coordinators.

I've finally been able to direct a little more details, and if I see it, they do. Moore has a chance to light up Indiana in a way that will surprise people, and it may be necessary because I also believe Indiana is going for the jugular early.

1 hour ago, Steven A said:

Hey Mike, although I agree with your analysis, if you are a betting man, I hope you have an ADU (additional dwelling unit) waiting for you somewhere.

It will take a Herculean effort to win this one. But one these OBD can make.

I am hoping the fire in our boys bellys is Vesuvian and that Pompeii Indiana feels the rath.

The sad news is that although hoping for the W, that I am preconditioned for failure at this level.

Steven,

Logic completely says Indiana takes this game hands down. They look unstoppable.

The eye test shows it, their experience (players and coaches) seem insurmountable, and they just don't give you many chances to beat them.

Talent is overrated, and Indiana has proven it. I do think talent will matter in this game, and I think the Ducks, despite the evidence, pulls this one out.

52 minutes ago, Triphibius said:

My thanks for your article and for your responses to my various inquiries in the past few days.

In cautious support of the more optimistic case, let me add or expand on two points.

1. According to the computations in one article (I believe at CBS line) in the first game against IU the OL was providing on average 2.5 seconds of time to Dante, who was taking on average about 3.0 seconds to throw. Will the OL provide more time on Friday? Will Dante make quicker and better decisions? His teammates say that Dante has progressed. IU is said to disguise its coverages very well. We will soon see.

2. Pregnon, Poncho and Iuli all received post-season accolades. Solar pointed out that if it looked like they were playing against Texas Tech like they just rolled out of bed, it was because that was essentially what they were forced to do. That game began at 9:00am Eugene time. The IU game, also in the eastern time zone, will begin at 4:30pm Eugene time. Do we think our interior linemen will play more of the way the have throughout the season? Furthermore, although Davison's loss is unfortunate, Duck Territory was reporting this morning that Jay Harris is going to play, and that Stein is talking as if he intends to use him. Before we saw Jordan Davison, we used to think that Harris was pretty effective in some situations.

Triphibius,

You've added much to the discussion of what we've been looking at. I hadn't put much stock into the 9 am playing time (but I did find out the Orange Bowl usually the last bowl on New Year's Day).

I hope Harris plays. We need hum.

I believe that Oregon route Indiana IF Moore processes what he sees accurately because Indiana gave him 3 TDs he didn't see.

Ifs and butts...candy and nuts. This game has a chance to be really fun.

2 hours ago, Smith72 said:

Thank you Mike for your insights and knowledge of football that you share with us Duck Fans! The picture you have at the top of the article definitely shows Washington guarding the sidelines. I sure hope that Dante has been trained this second half of the season to take advantage of that (along with Will Stein).

I always enjoy reading your take on Our Beloved Ducks!

Thanks Smith 72. I enjoy writing, but I especially enjoy the discussion after. Talk about great insights and perspectives, I learn more than you can imagine from the forum.

4 hours ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

Mike, this Duck fan appreciates your optimism about the Ducks beating the Hoosiers. OBD's can win this game.

I felt the Ducks could have beaten IU back in October. With 6 plus minutes left in that game, the win was there for the taking. However, OBD's did not play clean mistake free football and handed the victory to IU.

That will not be the case Friday night in Atlanta. IU is the very same team as they were in October. More seasoned as they navigated thru their schedule to emerge 14-0 and earn their spot in the semifinals. Well done Hoosiers.

OBD's were a group of seasoned portal transfers, uber talented younsters and a returning group of butt hurt, emberrassed players from the Rose Bowl debacle. They had not begun to gel as a team. That is not the case now.

Plus, IMHO, the Ducks were sky high from the white out victory and did not take IU seriously. I have been in Texas this week and have listened to different sports talk shows. One show was interviewing Gary Danielson and he said that in their interviews the Ducks were more focused on talking about how great their PSU win was. They had very little interest or respect for IU.

Another show had the IU play by play announcer on and he felt the same way. The IU team respected the Ducks and worked hard to pull the win out in Eugene. He knows the Ducks are focused and respect IU, now.

They best be!

The current version of OBD's will win this game as long as they plsy mistake free and execute. Same narrative as always.

Go Ducks.......

Nice additional perspective "Happy".

I didn't think about the motivation factor entering the battle in Eugene. Not to mention Dante Moore admitted he was shaken by Indiana, and didn't lead as effectively in the game.

There truly are lots of "ifs" in this game. Execution, mistake free play, and making plays when absolutely necessary.

Motivation will be key. Thanks for that nugget of info.

Geeze,

The comments are of the charts!

Charles (Forum Royalty),

This is what I call throwing the receiver open. The first case may be a little late, but both were open.

The second case requires the kind of trust and touch that should be developed in practice because it requires precision.

In both instances, it requires guts to throw knowing you may get hit, AND fitting the pass in tight windows(though the first screenshot is a clear case of TDs to either of them).

The other skill Dante needs work on is feeling out the pocket better. He needs to recognize when to shuffle into the pocket, or set his his get quickly enough to deliver a pass. Moore walked (ran) into several sacks this year.

Even if he leads OBD to a time this year, he needs to come back. He needs more experience against full speed scenarios isn't used to seeing.

8 hours ago, OregonDucks said:

The problem is Indiana is very good at disguising pressure and coverage pre snap. Our receivers did a nice job of sitting in Indiana's zones during the first match-up but Dante either didn't see them or was scared to pull the trigger.

Dante was also indecisive at many points during the game (likely due to the disguises or good coverage), which led to many of the sacks or lost yardage.

Dante is going to have to play much better this time around to get the W. We should get a good indication of how much he has developed since the first matchup.

What makes Indiana’s defense so great? Here’s what 5 college coaches had to say - The Athletic

In my mind, the only difference between these two teams is the level of execution.

13 hours ago, oregon123 said:

That was a great take Mike.

What I have seen from the Ducks offense against the better defenses is the following:

When Dante is pressured, he is not Mariota. He is not Vernon Adams. He is not Dennis Dixon.

He goes from a great pocket passer to an average at best scrambler. (probably a little below that)

So the Ducks need to adjust to that. Like you said, max protect is one way. A quick release is another. And let the athletes run wild on their secondary. Then trust his arm to find those tight windows.

In the run game, it is a math problem. The O line can block only so many bodies. Help is needed either by an extra TE or RB. We need to see more counters too.

Put that together and I would expect to see different packages featuring extra help in the form of more blockers vs a tough defensive front.

Also mix up the play calling and don't be predictable. Too many runs and screens let the D load up near the line of scrimmage. Pop some post patterns down the middle and make their safeties make plays. Indiana wants to gang up on you. Expose them in space and let the athletes do their thing.

On defense: mainly one thing. Don't let Mendoza run around and play 'Johnny football'. Put him ON THE GROUND. Keep tackling him. Make him throw it away in the stands. Eventually, he will press and that is when the Duck D can take advantage of his mistakes. Oregon has an elite secondary. Again, let the athletes win that battle.

If they can play offense like they did vs JMU and defense like vs Tech and the Ducks should be in good shape.

Your comments are killing it! I'm licking my chops at each suggestion. I have a thought about Stein and Moore I will share Thursday (man, its going to be tough to match the quality of suggestions in this thread. And I can only wonder what Stein is thinking about with so much on his plate.

This game is going to be very interesting.

2 hours ago, David Marsh said:

I would love to see the play start that way but you put Dierre Hill in motion going the other way after the snap. Anyone in charge of covering him gets wrapped up in the chaos of the shift and then then QB turns around and throws a lateral pass backwards to him.

Loads of risk involved with that and could still backfire in if the reverse runner is covered but I hate limiting the play like that on a 4th down especially.

Mr. Marsh,

I have saved you for last because you write the articles that gets everyone thinking. And your comments the past few hours really dialed in on some key themes that will play out in this game on Friday. That isn't anything against what has been some excellent dialogue. I had to write notes down for your comments more than others tonight.

I do believe Lanning short circuited the aggressive play calling in the second half. It was obvious OBD were going to win. Stein was simply tasked with winding the game down. But it was so frustrating. Tech's Front 7 was rearranging our OL, and their LBs were filling gaps so quickly it was difficult to run anywhere. They are probably the best group of defensive lineman and linebacker in the country this year. They presented challenges that were tough to overcome. STILL...

I also believe Lanning was aggressive in a destructive manner. While I didn't mind any of the 3rd and 4th down calls that were less than 3 yards, I did mind the type of plays that were called. That 4th and Goal pass was similar to that disaster in Seattle. That was Stein's/Lannings worst play choice of that group in Seattle. It was open, but for the wrong reason. It was not open in Miami. It was going to be an Interception as well. OBD got lucky.

How much Davison plays will be key. I totally like your thoughts on using a 13 set (1 RB, 3 TEs). And using it to run roughshod. The most important aspect of your thoughts is Indiana will have to chose between attacking a run play or laying off to cover those TEs. It gives me goosebumps just thinking about that concept.

In my eyes, these are the concepts that should be worked on starting in January. Its the stuff I would expect the analysts to work on, hashed out between that group and Lanning/Stein. Re-hashed every practice for at least 20 minutes. I'd put every kind of scenario on the table. I'd make it a one quarter challenge between coordinators and their analysts, with Steak Dinner or Oatmeal at stake. Every week. 10 months. Drill that ability to recognize and counter strategies, philosophies, and every play known to the football world. Spy versus Spy. So much so that it is routine to handle in any kind of game.

Now I do believe that has been happening this year-the adjustments that is. But my dream world as a HC would be to drill my entire staff on going at each other play by play, series by series. So when they are scouting other teams, they are crafting counter strikes automatically. Street ball. In as organized a fashion possible. I want those guys as loose as a goose. I think I have seen some of that this year. Because I am having a difficult time determining what Stein is designing for this game-and I now believe Lupoi has his unit seeing the whole field.

I am still studying this year in review for both teams. And I can't wait to figure out what we have been looking at this past six weeks.

9 hours ago, Solar said:

Excellent article. I agree that after 14 games, we've pretty much seen it all and how our team responds to each style and capability of opponent.

We should not see Stein trying things that didn't work the first time or against TTU.

One note. There is a type of run play that works against formidable DLs that are getting a lot of penetration. I call it action-play. It is the opposite of play action that instead of faking a run and throwing the pass, you fake the pass and have delayed hand-off or pitch inside for a run.

Was this does is stretch the front seven vertically as they pass rush creating horizontal lanes to get clear of the DL. I saw multiple teams use it with success in the quarterfinals, including us, but we didn't come back to it.

If there is one thing our team lack due to youth of players and coordinators is trusting in themselves. Players getting really conservative not trusting their ability to compete with similarly talented opponents.

I also think we understand this time that we need to get 30 points against IU if we want to a chance to win.

9 hours ago, Solar said:

"Excellent article. I agree that after 14 games, we've pretty much seen it all and how our team responds to each style and capability of opponent"...

You know the wild thing about that astute assessment is nobody knows what is going to happen next on offense. We keep waiting for this nuclear explosion to unveil itself, and it "never comes". I will say this, I am sure Indiana is very concerned it will drop in Atlanta on Friday. What truly isn't working? And that isn't a disagreement about your premise. I see too many missed assignments". But they look like horrible play calls-especially for certain situations. What truly IS working? That is a serious question as well.

Stein is killing us. But I do believe his opponents have been saying, "man, Indiana (Penn State, Iowa, Washington, USC ) really lucked out". That's the conundrum. When will we see that Montana State, Oklahoma State performance? Will we see that Oklahoma State, Montana State performance?

I sure hope Stein uses that Action-play of yours (is it also called a Draw Play). It works. And again, it pulls the Back 7 back to the LOS. We want that group up close and personal because they will not win those battles.

Very, very good observation on this team as a whole trusting themselves. That is an intangible that has been a constant theme. Brandon Finney is the one young gun that has brought swagger all year. But I saw a lot of that on defense last week. Like you have consistently said: Dante Moore needs to read properly. He needs to trust himself more than anyone else when he is under duress. I believe he completely realizes he doesn't have the experience yet to dismantle a havoc clad Front 7. You hit the bullseye-he needs to Yoda this baby (I wonder how much Lanning has grilled him, and Stein has drilled him on just throwing the damn ball to a guy he is staring at).

8 hours ago, Utki said:

Stein needs to not Vizzini it is my deep analysis. But that's what college OCs seem obsessed with doing over and over.

Sometimes I really wonder what Stein is up to in the middle of all the chaos. It was frustrating last week to see Tech escape so many times.

9 hours ago, mikethehiker said:

Read my mind on keeping TE’s and RBs in to block more and use as check downs after the rush.

Force extra defenders into the box to try and hold the edge while making the pocket unpredictable so Dante doesn’t become a sitting Duck.

I was yelling at the screen during the Orange Bowl to let our WR’s go up and make some plays. Dante threw one to Benson that he almost pulled off the defender’s back in the first half and then just abandoned any downfield aggression. Our WR’s will make those plays and will have to against Indiana.

We will need to generate 1 or 2 turnovers and we will need near perfect games across the board from our players and coaches.

This is it! If we can win this game, we could win it all. This could be our year!!

This game is going to be the ultimate chess match. I LOVE your thoughts on drawing Indiana inside. Our Tackles will probably need help. But some NFL style checkdowns would really work here. Not sure Stein would dial them up (I'll have to show them in the offseason), but forcing the Back 7 closer to LOS will open up massive space for the TEs, or whomever runs the seam, curl and dig routes.

Turnovers are always key, but I see a clean game from both teams. Moore has thrown 3 Interceptions so far. None of them really hurt the team, and only one of them was a questionable decision on his part.

I sure hope Stein dials up a October 2024 surprise again. Not sure yet what he and Lanning want to do this game.

9 hours ago, Washington Waddler said:

Bill Gates once said, “success is a lousy teacher . . . It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”

While Cignetti is no fool, and his team can learn and adjust from replays from our first encounter, I think we will find and learn much more than them - because of losing - that will affect the outcome of our 2nd match-up.

That’s the nature of that intangible called motivation.

This: That’s the nature of that intangible called motivation.

I believe Curt Cignetti is the best in the business at present. His staff is awesome at developing precision level performance. I'm talking German Craftmanship here. With a Formula One style of play. He does have a very mature group of players-they're mostly 22 or older. That takes nothing away from the preparation and performance his players have dialed up this year.

I also happen to believe Lupoi and Stein in particular are growing on the daily. I have seen more adjustments, and more precision in their ability to spot key plays to attack and defend. But they are not Jedi yet. Sometimes they have to unlearn what they have learned. What they plan to do, and how they adjust during this game will say a whole lot about their futures.

So, which Dante Moore will

9 hours ago, WTD25 said:

Great article.

A couple thoughts:

• While watching the pick 6 in the Miami game I thought, “Crap! Stein dials up about 100 of those behind-the-line passes to the side. I’m sick of those, by the way.

• Our offense is underperforming, and my inclination is to put that on Stein. Hoping things get turned around quickly. OBD has way too many weapons on offense to look so anemic as often as they do against quality defenses.

Boy do I hope they have a set of sequential/constraint plays in store for the Hoosiers based on that play. Everyone seems to blow up that play because it is so easy to read pre snap. Sometimes it is a blown block, but every time I have seen that play, every secondary zooms in on the designated receiver like a guided missile.

Stein is ultimately responsible for the unit's performance. Even if the players aren't executing. What will it take to maximize their performance? That has to be on the staff's radar. Four excellent defenses, four games of missed opportunities left on the plate. We as fans are starving, and this unit is throwing away more than scraps. We're talking about a course or two from a five course meal.

10 hours ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Excellent article. The commentary on this forum and the analysis and brake downs by Charles and many off the other writers makes FishDuck some of the best Duck content on the web. Here's my two cents.

One of the things that makes it difficult to beat a good team twice is the team that lost needs to change something while the team that won does not. Indy will be Indy. That's what they do. That's who they are. In game one. OBD were still figuring themselves out. A bunch of youngsters were starting and playing significant roles along with a bunch of transfers doing the same.

After blasting through an easy non conference schedule and rising to the challenge of the PSU white out game, The Ducks had a bye week then a home game against a lower ranked team much like the Illinois game last year. I feel like they felt they just needed to show up and do their thing and the rest would take care of itself.

Except Indiana doesn't shoot themselves in the foot, is always doing the right thing, plays every snap with passion and has taken on the self confidence that pours from their coach. Google him. Oregon soon found that just doing their thing wasn't enough, every poor coaching decision or lack of execution could and would be used against them and finding that next gear to rise above it is easier said than done against competition of Indiana's caliber.

Mike has pointed out an excellent game plan. The coaching staff all need to embrace the need for inner growth and not just preach it to the players. I feel that the entire program was humbled last time and a sense of humility will be required to allow themselves to grow from the experience. I feel this is the most significant game of Lanning's tenure as head coach for that very reason. I am sure that will be the primary focus this week and we see the team we've been waiting for all season on Friday.

Man am I hyped for this one!

Excellent Post!

This Forum of Decorum brings out the best in us.

I agree Indiana is less prone to change much. I do wonder if they will throw more wrinkles as it appears they brought out more of their arsenal against both Ohio State and Alabama. And they looked scary against Bama ( Bama pulled that disappearing act again. I am beginning to believe they are more scared of themselves than teams and programs fear them now).

I'm not sure how OBD waltzed into the IU game. But I am more prone to believe your premise that they strode in with a Business as Usual approach-thinking they had hurdled the most daunting task they had ahead of the CCG in December. Last year, Indiana wasn't so physical at the Line of Scrimmage (LOS). Boy did that change this year. Cignetti's crew outcoached Lanning's, and that has been the case in every game of theirs but the close call in Happy Valley (and its too bad Penn State collapsed, because that hurt our reputation).

You hit is dead on: Lanning and crew must demonstrate even more growth than they already have this year. In my opinion, the disjointed efforts on one side of the ball in numerous games makes everyone wonder if Lanning has put it all together yet. This really is Lanning's most significant game.

1 hour ago, David Marsh said:

I would love to see the play start that way but you put Dierre Hill in motion going the other way after the snap. Anyone in charge of covering him gets wrapped up in the chaos of the shift and then then QB turns around and throws a lateral pass backwards to him.

Loads of risk involved with that and could still backfire in if the reverse runner is covered but I hate limiting the play like that on a 4th down especially.

That thought reminds me of the 2 point conversion in the 2011 Natty. The play flowed to the right and Lance Allworth's stunt double (jeff Maehl) gracefully snatches Darin Thomas' backside heave.

Friends,

I am at work, but I haven't forgotten you. Talk about some very insightful posts!

After work, I'll respond to those posts. So hold on Mr. Marsh; Gotcha;Solar; Kamakazi Kid; WTD25; Washington Waddler and Mikethehiker. You guys are feeding the post graduate level analysis here. Thanks for your thoughts. Can't wait to as my thoughts...

3 hours ago, Notalot said:

This is a fun thread with many interesting observations and recommendations for Friday's game.

Mine:

-initially passing to slants and crossing routes quickly hitting TE’s and the slot receiver. 4-8 in the middle. Then run off tackle and inside. Slight delays by the RB allowing them to find the crease.

-Take intermediate 8-15 yard shots on early downs to benson, Moore, and Mac.->

- On designed running plays the primary blockers and offside OL need to continue to block and get down field. Against TT some were standing up watching the action and not continuing the play.

- The interior linemen and rushers on pass plays need to get their hands up and swipe at the ball and interfere with the QB.

We have the dudes to win. The Ducks need Dante to bring confidence and swagger to lead the team playing his best. In the first game against Indiana it seemed to me that Dante was distracted, possibly playing dinged up or was playing with an illness. He didn’t seem to be at his best until he gutted it out late in the game.

There you are notalot (l lol-I've been gone from the forum awhile),

I like what you're saying. I think Stein goes away from that to much. He started last game just like that, and then left it alone ( might have been the faster clock Tech was forcing).

Stein's paying concepts work, but the combo of self inflicted wounds and to make this and long situations like momentum.

There are some matchups I look forward to. It's going to be an interesting game.

1 hour ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

When I set up the TV to tape the Orange Bowl game I was tempted to not watch it live. That way I could fast forward thru the mindless and endless commercials.

For some reason I decided to watch the game, live! That first half was torture as the offense worked hard against that great TT defense. OBD's, as you all know, moved that ball and continually self-destructed at critical times, keeping points off the board.

Completely dominating the first half and only leading 6-0. The offense kept TT in the game. 2nd half was better. Way better.......

My youngest son, Michael was at the game, sitting about 15 rows up in the endzone. You could see all the Duck colors thruout the game in the endzone. His view point was endzone to endzone. He was in the endzone with a first hand view of the MU strip sack.

Our TV view is from one sideline across the field to the other sideline. Many times replay shows the endzone to endzone viewpoint. Not often enough.

Thru out the game, Michael would text me that Sadiq was wide open, Johnson was wide open and that Dante simply didn't see them. (Roll outs would help with that vision. Of course, we as fans didn't see that.

Later in the day I watched the game again. By some miracle, the first half recording was endzone to endzone and no announcers. Just the PA announcer. On each play the announcer would tell who ran or caught the bsll and who made the tackle.

It was nice......

As I watched the first half play you could see all 22 players and see what Ducks were wide open.

TT had no answers to covering ALL the Duck receivers. From that view I could see what Michael was seeing.

IU will have no answers either. WS needs to call timely plays to exploit this. And help Dante recognize this. As we watched the game, Dante was hitting wide open recievers. On those same plays the TE's and other receivers were open for big gains or TD's. WOW!

At the start of the 2nd half my recording format went back to normal. Darn!

Point is, Mike West is correct in his assessment. One of the best defenses could not cover all the Ducks receivers.

IU won't either.

GO DUCKS......

ESPN broadcasts two views. The All 22 view you saw the second time, and its regular broadcast. They will show both during the Natty. There is a guy that replays some of the All 22 view, but for copyright reasons, he can't show all of it. I didn't realize ESPN rebroadcast the game (with the All 22s at that).

The All 22 aspect really flushes out the game better. You can see missed blocks, assignments, reads and strategies. NFL.com broadcast the All 22s from the end zone and the field. It is absolutely awesome. I wish they would do that in college football. Not sure the coaches want that out there though. They get enough critics as it is.

1 hour ago, Jon Joseph said:

Mike, I so enjoy pouring my first cup of coffee and then finding an article from you up on the Forum. You, Charles, David Marsh, The Coach, and other Forum Friends have an in-depth appreciation of the game I do not have; it's wonderful when you all share your insights.

I'm not being critical of either coach, Dan or Will, when I ask if Will has a free hand when it comes to game management. It was apparent early on to this amateur that Texas Tech's offense was outmatched and not a threat to score against the Ducks' defense.

Why not dominate time of possession and dominate the game by playing smaller, not small ball? Especially when your QB is under siege, and your O-line is not playing like a Joe Moore finalist.

Of course, eight 4th down attempts and a successful fake punt are not in the generally accepted definition of 'small ball.' I'm an amateur armchair analyst, but I can see why experts don't 'get' the seemingly inconsistent game plan.

However,15 new starters and the team is 13-1, I am entertained. And, I have to remind myself that it took Kirby Smart and Ryan Day six seasons to win a title.

How much do Dan, Will, and Dante himself trust Dante?

Against TT, Dante had Sadiq wide open for a TD and missed the opportunity. He had receivers open against Indiana and missed them. He's twenty years old and has nowhere close to the experience of Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. The game isn't going to slow down when you are on your back.

The defense and a very good, not perfect, kicking game won the Orange Bowl game. The defense shut down Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana until late in the games against these three opponents. I don't see OBD versus Indiana, and hopefully, Miami or Ole Miss, winning shootouts.

I do see OBD winning if, like against TT, OBD dominates the TO battle and holds the opponents below their season scoring average. I don't expect to breathe easy for sixty-plus minutes.

Thanks again, Mike, for another terrific take.

PS - My Old Man was one of the farm boys who destroyed the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy. 👌👍😁 There isn't a Cig that cannot be extinguished.

HOSE THE WHO, WHO, WHO HOOSIERS!

Jon,

You're even more of a joy to read!

As to those crazy 4th down plays. I totally believe Lanning was telling the whole world Tech was not going to win this game. And he wanted to end it quickly. I agree on the first point. I didn't mind the first 2 calls. But sometimes you gotta put points on the board. I'm pretty sure he knew well before the game started that OBD were going to take it to Tech, and they couldn't do a damn thing about it. Did I write an article about that? I can't remember (not to toot my own horn-because the film I looked at was my basis-not me. I don't know how Lanning could not believe his team was going to dominate this game-objectively at that).

Which brings me to your main point. This team can win it any way they want-if they execute enough. It really is a Swiss Army Knife kind of team-even the defense. I personally don't like going for the throat because it is more entertaining-I just want to end the game before its gets going. You have to pass the ball to get that done. But Grandpa Duck really hit it on the nail-I think I am going to be sorely disappointed with the strategy Lanning and Stein employ. We do need balance. We do need to run the ball-effectively. I just want to slash that damn throat!!! Too bad for me!

1 hour ago, Dave23 said:

Jordon Davisons average rush 7.4

Noah Whittington average rush 5.4

Jayden Limar average rush 5.7

I rewatch the game and I'm firmly in the camp that abandoning the run truly was the downfall in the first Indiana game. Giving up six sacks for negative 27 yd made the run average 2.7 Yard to carry.

9 of the 30 runs on the stat sheet where Moore being sacked or scrambling after being pressured on a pass play bring the total to 43 pass plays to 21 run plays.

The run game has been there all year long and sticking to it and forcing the D to play up opens up the easy reads for Moore not the other way around.

I cannot disagree. The run game has been there all along. Yet, and this is no criticism of what you've pointed out, the Fuskies went to town on that run game and forced us to make very good plays to seal the victory. I believe there is a flow to the game that is difficult to diagnose in the heat of battle. I believe Stein has done a very good job of adjusting, but sometimes the timing of his calls are off. Nonetheless, I believe the analysts are part of the game and they need to provide feedback live on what Stein wants to do-including adjusting alignments, blocking schemes, sequential/constraint plays etc.

I really thing we can run on Indiana. It's just a matter of how to balance the mix with passing the ball. I also believe Stein dialed up winners passing the ball that Moore simply missed. That is why what Solar has been saying has been paramount. Moore must play his best ball. He must identify pre snap as much as possible what spacing (how IU places their back 7 pre snap against the receivers) is the area to attack based on the play call. And he absolutely must throw more once he plants his feet (which also includes just pulling the trigger with faith he made the correct decision).

There is a lot to being an awesome QB. I know Shedeur Sanders is a controversial player, but how he has developed in the NFL-albeit slowly for my tastes- is what Dante is going through. Moore is handling the pressure in his face well. And I do believe Stein needs to dial up the kinds of plays he did against TTU on early downs if he is going to pass the ball. More on that later.

This game can go several ways. Lanning is quite comfortable playing it close to the vest, as both teams can grind it out. Cignetti is also very aggressive so the tempo of this game will determine if Lanning dials up an aggressive passing attack or not. I absolutely believe nobody can stop the TEs/WRs. They just can't. That's why I want to drop 40 plus. It is totally possible.

Yet...I have to agree with you. OBD should be able to run the ball to open up that lethalness. It is a matter of preference.

2 hours ago, Triphibius said:

Thanks for your article and ongoing commentary, which is always informative.

Here are three points for consideration.

First, IU’s top run defender, Staley, is out, as I understand it. We ran the ball effectively last time with Staley on the field, at least until Stein inexplicably stopped doing so. We have one of the best guards in college football in Pregnon, a powerful center, and a much improved right guard in Iuli. I would expect the Ducks to have some success running the ball, assuming that IU does not crowd the box.

Second, IU’s defensive linemen may be good, but probably not of the caliber of Texas Tech’s. My understanding is that much of their success in rushing Dante last time was through the use of “simulated pressures.” Unless I am missing something, this is new jargon for what used to be called “zone blitzes.” A team cannot blitz without creating a vulnerability somewhere. What about keeping one or both TE at the line of scrimmage to chip, then releasing them into short routes in the areas vacated by the blitzers? I am assuming that IU disguises what they do so well that Dante may need to adjust during the play rather than decide before the snap. In any case, dealing with their simulated pressures seems to me to be an important part of the Ducks’ preparation.

Third, my deduction from DL’s comments is that IU is primarily a zone defense team. I am no football savant, but I thought the best way of attacking a zone is running routes along the “seams” between zones. Our TEs could be highly effective in that way, if Dante has time to throw.

 

 

 

 

 

My man Triphibius,

You nailed some great observations. I'll hit your main point last.

First of all, Pregnon, Luli and Ipani need to clean it up. I say a few, and only a few, missed blocks. One prevented Davison from scoring on second and Goal from the 9. TTU's DL was simply too powerful for that group. More on that in a second.

Secondly, I'll check on the IU zone blitzes. Or as they coined it "simulated pressures". I haven't looked at the IU game for analysis yet.

Third, I definitely will look into the Zone Defense yo brought up (that Lanning mentioned).

Finally, as to the running game against IU. It was definitely clicking. But they short runs were getting blown up and it was disrupting rhythm in the game. But. And that isn't an excuse. Stein dialed up some very good runs, and the OL executed very well. I hope Stein and the analysis crew are keying in on short length downs. It has been a glaring weakness. I'm not sure if it is because defenses are stacking the box, missed assignments blocking, or a combination of both.

In any event, execution on 2nd, 3rd and 4th down when the line to gain is under 3 yards has been poor. That is where those analysts must do their job. They need to assess, and diagnose the challenges and solutions. My opinion of course.

2 hours ago, Steven A said:

Good analysis Mike.

I'm hoping we see a lot more of Sadiq. Release the beast. We need to use him on fades near the goal line.

It is hard to watch unsuccessful runs into a stout line, but I realize the need to not abandon the run.

How about some pump fakes and double moves?

And yes, planned roll outs. Dante must use his tape watching skills and knowledge to avoid pressure and use his weapons.

SCO 🦆s

Agreed Steven,

That is one DUDE. He needs at least 5-7 targets each game (I hope we get another). Not to mention, getting him on Safeties, and even IU's corners is an absolute must. I watched IU handle osu2's WRs well, but they were holding those WRs. They also know they can't stop our WR/TE group. More on that Thursday.

You read my mind on the double moves. That will be key. But they must be set up. Not sure how much time Stein will have designing a groujp of plays to go to and get the practice in, but I hope that is a feature.

The more I watch tape, the more I have to admit they may have the best DL/Front 7 in the country. They were excellent in so many ways. I hope to have time to explain why later.

I think Moore needs to lose sleep this week watching tape (until Wednesday). It will take some timing in practice this week as well. So I'm hoping they drill the heck out of reading each side of the ball pre snap and making decisions based on spacing as well as reading Man or Zone coverage. I think he is doing fine, but it takes awhile to master that skill set. He should come back next year-it will boost his NFL career for sure in my opinion.

4 hours ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

Spot on again! Strong analysis, breakdown and explanation. Mike, Thank you!

In the first game the Duck TE's caught 3 passes. If WS uses them on 1st and 2nd downs that catch total combined should be double digits.

Dante needs to read the IU defensive set and make them pay everytime they blitz. There will be an open area to throw to.

2nd and 2 opens the entire playbook for WS and Dante to exploit the Hoosiers defense.

Their front seven will wear down, if WS spreads the field. Let them chase after the play, not at Dante.

I hope the coaches do a better job of calling plays that work to the Ducks favor. In October, it may just be me, but at times DL and staff had no answers to what Cignetti adjusted to. Especially the ingame adjustments. Cignetti is an outstanding coach!

Mike, as I read and reread your article my takeaway was to keep the Hoosiers D off balance, guessing and on their heels not their toes. It is the recipe for a win......

Another outstanding effort by the Ducks D will be needed. Keep IU under 20 points and OBD's will have a chance to advance.

As always OBD's must play smart, aggressive and clean. Don't give IU anything easy.

GO DUCKS!

Excellent points Happy! A few thoughts. Dave23 has a very valid point about running the ball on Friday-I agree. With stipulations, but we ran very well on the Hoosiers. More on that when I respond to his comment. Excellent observation on getting the ball to the TEs on early downs. I neglected to mention the TEs as a force as well-they are very difficult to stop.

I do believe Moore is reading fronts much better. Its the pressure that is effecting his execution. More on that later (sorry, that will be a response to Triphibius-he nailed that analysis).

I like the idea of wearing down IU's Front 7. Didn't work on TTU, and I believe the Hoosiers are well conditioned as well. Doesn't mean Stein should forsake a quick tempo though. It MAY work after all, and also that pace may be an advantage. I'm writing another article Thursday and may go into that concept more.

I watched more tape, and I changed my mind a little on what Stein was doing. I still think he adjusted a little late-but that is me expecting perfection. If yo have time, look at this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSE5awo-gG0). It is a very good breakdown of most of the key concepts and plays from the Tech game on offense.