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Mike West
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Posts posted by Mike West
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Great takes guys.
Our future is bright. Win ten and you're always in the playoffs. Winning a title is going to take having an NFL caliber QB. Somebody mentioned one of the best things a Four or Five Star QB can do now is start and dominate in a lower conference.
That's what Cam Ward did. I believe the ACC and Big 12 is the place potential four and five star QBs should go. Otherwise, you better be the real deal- and I mean absolutely Tua, Justin Herbert, and Peyton Manning material. Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are other examples.
Teams will not win a title unless they have a clutch QB. That should be obvious after last night. Without No Nix, we get run out of the building last night.
I also believe too many defenses set up formations that can't beat a team like Washington this year, Alabama the year Tua played AND the year they lost to Georgia ( an injured elite WR going down changed the outcome of that game- and Georgia's vaunted defense was NOT stopping Bama before that).
Explaining why is too detailed for this forum, and frankly requires writing a book about- having talked to Fishduck for years about shutting down Chip's early version- the back and forth really convinced me I could earn a doctorate if I write that book (lol).
Anyways, we will consistently make the playoffs. Winning a title requires several variables that are difficult to control. But the days of the SEC dominating college football are over. Which means we have a solid chance to win a title if and only if we get NFL caliber QB play.
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Guys,
I could see all 22 players all game. The defense got beat because the formations they played Lent to mismatches. You could actually see some of that in the highlights.
For instance, as I said last night, on third and goal at the two yard line, up 4, we lined up in a 5-2 I believe. They had 8 on the line of scrimmage. That is a natural mismatch. Before the play began I pointed that out and said Washington would easily score.
Every time they ran outside, the side they ran to had a mismatch because we were stacking the other side of the formation ( the side with their TE). I didn't have a problem lining up on their TE side, I had a problem with the formation. Oregon State did the same thing but under center. The formation we used against Oregon State was what I - Mike West would do.
I would have forced them to pass, go zone, and used the blitz packages that worked so well all year. I also believe the coaches were so worried about pass defense, they didn't respect their running game ( which the Fuskies actually focused more on after they played us- they correctly assessed they would need it against us- we miscalculated what they were going to do).
Furthermore, it was obvious we couldn't press the WRs at the line of scrimmage, nor keep up with them down the field. That required immediate trashing of our game plan versus their scheme. I thought the CBs would play better, but with McMillan back, it was a clear mismatch. I (again this is just me, but I don't believe in a game plan that goes further than the first quarter, I believe you play " streetball- call what you are playing against". That's what those 287 plays in your playbook is for).
When we trashed the game plan on offense, we scored. We only did that once in the fourth quarter on defense, and they called a fade route inside the ten yard line( we had the perfect formation to defend the run and pass on that play, then went back to a pass oriented formation they exploited).
It was frustrating to watch.
I believe the reason Lanning stuck to his guns is because everything worked all year- and worse, we lost by three both games. So I'm not sure strategy will change. I'm a firm believer you play to the tempo and flow of the game and adjust as you go. That calls for calling the first quarter based on what you believe will happen in the game, and call the rest of the game according to how the game flows.
Coaches rarely do that.
Ironically, Vince Lombardi's "Gentleman, this is a football" comes to mind for me. He taught fundamentals. Repeat the same play till you perfect it. I agree with the fundamentals part. Yet I believe you take what they give you, and you take away what they succeed at. For me, that requires knowing football beyond your own strategy and philosophy of the game.
There's obviously more to it than that and that would require a ten thousand word essay no one would read.
Overall, I'm disappointed, but I'm proud of this team. They didn't play well and they still only lost by three- and yes for me- the game was how it ended- it wasn't simply they dominated- we just didn't respect the conditions on the ground and still played well enough to lose by three.
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On 12/1/2023 at 8:06 PM, Just Ducky said:
Our D line is getting pushed around pretty good.
It's formation related. They're choosing to yield one gap at the LOS.
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Mike West rule number one:. NEVER RUN A REGULAR DEFENSIVE FORMATION AT YOUR OWN ONE YARD LINE.
EVER.
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This Stadium is awesome.
How bout that for Duck commentary?
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Defense is going to have to scrap man to man.
I'm in the building and nobody is covering all. Time to go zone, and also scrap the 3-3-5. Not a good game plan on defense from what I've been looking at.
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On 12/1/2023 at 5:38 PM, Mike West said:
OBD look a little off
They don't look very physical at present
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OBD look a little off
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On 11/30/2023 at 10:07 PM, OregonDucks said:
This year is the exception, not the rule. There usually aren’t this many teams, so closely grouped together, with so little separation. You shouldn’t design a permanent solution based on one observation.
Most years a 6 or 8 team playoff would suffice.
I used to think that way. Until I saw Utah give Penn State all it could handle (till Cameron Rising got injured). They were good enough to give Michigan and Ohio State fits last year.
And nobody expected a Mario Cristobal led Oregon team to beat Ohio State in Columbus. Sometimes it's a matchup deal. Ohio State sure surprised Georgia last year (as I suspect any team with a high caliber QB to do in the SEC).
I'm quite confident the best coaches (and there are about twenty) can tango with the elite in a one off. I believe the playoffs are going to surprise people the next couple of years. Clearly I believe the SEC has been overrated a few years (even OBD ran in Georgia well. Had Nix had elite WRs, that's a horse race of a game-their secondary rarely gets exposed- and I think that's because the conference has average QBs).
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On 11/29/2023 at 6:13 PM, Sandy Rocks said:
The way things are now with the football playoff, a team needs to either be in a weak conference or have an almost perfect season. Being perfect has truly been impossible in the PAC which is why they have rarely had teams in the playoffs. A wider field will truly expose the teams who have soft schedules. It give opportunities to the teams who come on strong at the end which I find very exciting.
The way it is now, we just keep being served up the same tired, old teams who may or may not be the best teams. Now we will know who is the best. A real playoff will show that. The four team playoff is a joke. Changing the system will have many positive unforeseen consequences but I guess we will see.
The only thing I disagree with is the four playoff teams really have been the best. After COVID the balance started to change.
Now, as in 21';22' and this year, the top 8 teams are fairly close with #s 1&2 separated from the rest.
This year there are 8 solid teams with little separation. I think rankings will continue, and eventually the conference title games go away. That will create some mismatches in my opinion, but unless a team focuses on winning ten every year, they will not be good enough to be in the playoffs, much less win the Natty.
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Oregon
35-23
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335 yards passing
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On 11/28/2023 at 11:12 AM, Augduck said:
Always appreciate your insights Mike.
Just saying, I am big time nervous. Good thing I work from home so I can take periodic breaks to calm down. Friday seems like a long time away.
Maybe I need to take some long lunches these next few days.
I'm nervous too. The Fuskies have a matchup advantage here. They, like Georgia (whom I believe is the hardest puzzle to solve), set up the Secondary so well they get guys open often.
I believe the Corners (OBD) get beat here and there, but not to the degree they did before. Washington likes to Gondor TDs from their own 40, the opponent's 40 and the opponent's 20. That is their major tell.
I believe that will be defended much better Friday.
Fingers crossed!!!
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On 11/27/2023 at 1:48 PM, cartm25 said:
Not sure about you, but that 9.5 feels a bit high, no?
I realize the Ducks have looked stronger and stronger, but Penix and those WR will still be a problem . . . and both teams will be motivated.
I'm picking the Ducks to win a close one, but hoping they blow UW out!
I'm going to make two unpopular statements here related to this.
First of all, I don't believe this number is high. For all intense purposes, the"mistaken fourth down calls" were a result of not executing. The final score should have been 46-29 had Nix taken his trying and gone through his progressions ( first time) and taken his time on the second throw to Franklin at the two ( he scored if he catches it).
I realize everybody in the solar system disagrees. That's fine with me. Execution was the problem. And as we have witnessed, the offense and the defense have spent the rest of the season on better execution.
Penalties, and once again, the Safeties are going to be the difference in this game. If I see a Safety look at the QB instead of take away his choices I'm going to go nuclear.
I may be able to attend this game, so " The Sun of All Fears" may be in play lol.
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On 11/23/2023 at 2:20 PM, Charles Fischer said:
It is unfortunate that he is the weak link on the defense. Offense pick on him in coverage, and as I diagrammed at the OBD Get-Together Film Study....he does not always have good technique as the Force defender, thus they get outside of him.
He has made a lot of great plays, but...we miss Byron Addison, IMHO. Great guy, loyal guy, but...he is trailing a receiver way too often for my preference.
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Oregon
45-17
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350
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On 11/19/2023 at 1:34 PM, Haywarduck said:
To answer your question, yes I am feeling it, but those other feelings aren't too far from the surface.
I feel it too. But it doesn't diminish from the fact this team has killer instinct, and shows poise as good as Chip's Natty team.
My worry is the same issue I brought up before the Fusky Fiasco: I'm not sure the Safeties are good enough to shut down the best passing offenses.
I've seen improvement. I've seen better adjustments than I've ever seen before. What bugs me the most is our Safeties get caught flat footed because they stare down the QB instead of taking away his options.
Looking at the quarterback is like a kid in the candy store: you forget what you're doing. You freeze because all the candy looks so good. You reach for the snicker bar forgetting you came for the payday.
OBD have an Achilles Heel. I still think they pay the Fuskies back. And I actually believe they are as good as every elite team out there. It comes down to inches at this point.
I hope I never see an interception turn into the completion before we give up the go ahead score type play again. But I have my doubts. Even though we haven't seen many fiascos like that play since, I know how good these elite coaches are.
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On 11/18/2023 at 7:10 PM, Log Haulin said:
I don't think this narrative is right. A lot of people do, I get it. I think the CFP is aching to get Ducks in the CFP.
I wouldn't be surprised if Ducks jump FSU, even if they are 12-0 plus acc title. The committee responsibility is the 4 best. They have already used "eye test" with Michigan and tOSU. I get they are undefeated.
Oh I so hope you are correct.
I'm just worried a Bama UGA game like the Tua stunner plus Michigan Ohio State playing a thriller just monkey wrenches the whole deal. Any repeat of the battle in Seattle from those four, without a couple of flat out dominating wins by OBD gives the committee justification to foster rematches not including OBD and UW.
Fingers crossed!!!!!
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On 11/18/2023 at 10:19 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:
UO wins the next three games and they are in the playoffs period. The leading Heisman contender won't be elbowed aside by anybody.If the fuskies blow it against the #12 beavs, they wouldn't drop enough to matter and the Pac would have three top 10 ish teams before the conference championship. Any one loss Pac team is in this year. And this year, it will be the Ducks.
Arizona needs to step into the top ten. They hurt the conference by taking out Oregon State. Unless of course their rout today is a huge marker in the CFP Committee's eyes.
Are Arizona and Oregon State considered the Penn State, LSU, Missouri types this year? Or does the committee look at the PAC12 like the media is starting to feel?
Oregon State has to win looking like Ohio State v Michigan next week tonight in order to make OBD look playoff worthy. Even then, we need a 49-13 performance three weeks in a row to quell the narrative the PAC12 Champ is mediocre.
I expect a battle in Seattle type game in Ann Arbor next week. That is going to hurt OBD, because a similar battle in Atlanta resulting in a Bama win makes those four look better than us.
Titles go out the window unless we just obliterate the Beavers and the Fuskies. Style points are definitely going to matter.
As I speak, the Beaver-Fusky game is passing the eye test. They are pounding each other physically. That helps. Points will also if the Beavers win.
Then we need to just gut those damn builders. And the Fuskies.
That is the only way I see a playoff lock: gut the Beavers so convincingly it looks like nuclear war dropped, and singe Washington so convincingly, the Beaver victory (theirs and ours against them) look ordinary AND put a wet blanket on eye candy Blue Blood wonderkind matchups.
Sorry guys, I don't trust the committee.
By the way, OBD are an early 11 1/2 favorite next week. Not a good opinion of a "top ten" Oregon State, of the conference's reputation (though we are definitely that much better than fhem)
Either the Fuskies dominate tonight, of this game starts to look more like the battle in Seattle in my eyes. Otherwise, Four Best is going to haunt me.
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UW all the way.
Bama, Georgia Ohio State and Michigan are too Blue Blood to leave it to Beaver.
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I was at the Hall of Fame ceremony when Rich Brooks was inducted. It was clear that night he learned how to develop OBD into a perennial title contender. He figuratively built a Lego Land version of the Duck (think of our mascot lol)) that put Oregon on the list of future Blue Bloods.
If you include Chip Kelly, three coaches left unfinished business on the table, and all three threw away damn good shots at a national championship. For each one of them.
Think about that for a moment. All three had the talent, and two of them had the type of offense and defense to make it happen (the third flat out abandoned the most lethal offense Oregon has ever had in the history of the program).
I truly believe Cristobal made the right choice, because, as Miami is learning, he doesn't have the chops to turn a program into a champion (now he gets paid for their folly).
Taggart was an absolute fool. He hadn't learned how to develop any school into a champion, and walked away from the best talent he ever coached ( and recruited for that matter). It was all there for him to put together, and he shattered the paradigm that Oregon couldn't recruit elite talent
Poor Chip didn't realize professional football players don't give a damn about football. Watching Chip fundamentally transform that game of football was thrilling to say the least. Yet Chip proved brilliant football acumen is no match for greed and self interest.
Which brings me to one of the best young minds I've ever seen in the sport. Always prepared, thoughtful, and diabolically strategic. The guy can motivate, and is a superb leader. Everything one wants in an executive walks into Oregon's pressroom every Monday and remind us what world class excellence looks like.
We are extremely fortunate. We are witnessing history. Dan Lanning is giving Oregon it's best shot to finish what Rich Brooks started.
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On 11/11/2023 at 11:37 PM, bbmichaels said:
I'm just glad they got the win.
They need to clean stuff up if they want to beat the Beavs.
I have a feeling the absolute arse kicking will stick this time.
If you think we have a bitter taste from last year as fans...
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Man,
What will OBD look like if they eliminate the unforced errors and penalties?
This team is on the cusp. I hope they can fine tune those issues.
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Penalties and unforced errors are making USC look decent. This game should be an absolute obliteration.
OBD have lost their killer instinct.
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Got away with the push off. That is why I can't stand PAC12 refs. Ref was watching the ball instead I'd the WR/CB.
It's a conspiracy!!!!!!!!
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Heartbreak for the Ducks in Vegas
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
I believe there is one component missing in all of this. This is going to be an unpopular take.
I believe the reason Washington looked so lethargic after we played them is they focused on their running game more. They actually looked decent running the ball against us ( my opinion) the first time we played them.
I believe they realized they would need to run more effectively period. In order to win the Natty, they're going to have to run the ball well.
They already have an elite passing offense. They will be tough to stop. Because now, you have to stop their running game. If you didn't notice it, they closed out the game running and passing effectively. We couldn't focus ( based on the formations we used in my opinion) on both very effectively.
They correctly assessed, after our first game that they would need more balance in order to close out against us, AND the rest of the elite teams capable of winning the Natty. They looked out of sync the rest of the season because there were tinkering with their play mix.
We are the same type of team. But we focus so much on balance that it takes a quarter for us to unleash our awesome downfield passing game (that's not our true focus).
They made absolutely sure we would have to pass well on early downs if we wanted to win. It took Stein a quarter to find the right mix of plays to do that. Then he turned off the spigot at the beginning of the fourth quarter. That was a mistake.
The same thing happened on the drive we decided to go for it ( on 4th down) in Seattle. In reality, we should have focused on scoring, not controlling the ball till the end ( which is what they expected us to do).
There is no ball control strategy against an explosive offense like theirs and ours. The goal must be score TDs on every drive you can, with a heavy dose of explosive plays. Same with playing Georgia. You need to be extremely agressive. Especially when you have the personell, like we have.
Washington is going to surprise people in the playoffs. People are going to assume the best defenses are going to shut them down. That's not going to happen. Even Georgia is going to have to decide how they're going to slow down both the run and the pass because the Fuskies showed they can handle a physical defense.
I say a 5 man front is required to slow them down now ( five guys on the line of scrimmage that is, not five down lineman). In any event, there isn't a secondary that can contain Washington now that McMillan is back. We learned that the hard way.
It will be interesting to see if Nix plays in the Bowl Game. It would be a great opportunity for TT to determine just how much work he has ahead of him if Nix doesn't. I don't believe TT has the freestyle ability Nix has. That is absolutely necessary in Will Stein's offense ) by the way I doubt Nix was given that choice this game based on the way it looked- Nix didn't audible much last night).
Our future is bright everyone. Lots to self assess. I believe we have the right staff to do so. If they pay attention to us ( really laugh out loud folks. But know this, we have an astute forum here).