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Mike West
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Posts posted by Mike West
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Oregon
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On 11/19/2023 at 1:34 PM, Haywarduck said:
To answer your question, yes I am feeling it, but those other feelings aren't too far from the surface.
I feel it too. But it doesn't diminish from the fact this team has killer instinct, and shows poise as good as Chip's Natty team.
My worry is the same issue I brought up before the Fusky Fiasco: I'm not sure the Safeties are good enough to shut down the best passing offenses.
I've seen improvement. I've seen better adjustments than I've ever seen before. What bugs me the most is our Safeties get caught flat footed because they stare down the QB instead of taking away his options.
Looking at the quarterback is like a kid in the candy store: you forget what you're doing. You freeze because all the candy looks so good. You reach for the snicker bar forgetting you came for the payday.
OBD have an Achilles Heel. I still think they pay the Fuskies back. And I actually believe they are as good as every elite team out there. It comes down to inches at this point.
I hope I never see an interception turn into the completion before we give up the go ahead score type play again. But I have my doubts. Even though we haven't seen many fiascos like that play since, I know how good these elite coaches are.
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On 11/18/2023 at 7:10 PM, Log Haulin said:
I don't think this narrative is right. A lot of people do, I get it. I think the CFP is aching to get Ducks in the CFP.
I wouldn't be surprised if Ducks jump FSU, even if they are 12-0 plus acc title. The committee responsibility is the 4 best. They have already used "eye test" with Michigan and tOSU. I get they are undefeated.
Oh I so hope you are correct.
I'm just worried a Bama UGA game like the Tua stunner plus Michigan Ohio State playing a thriller just monkey wrenches the whole deal. Any repeat of the battle in Seattle from those four, without a couple of flat out dominating wins by OBD gives the committee justification to foster rematches not including OBD and UW.
Fingers crossed!!!!!
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On 11/18/2023 at 10:19 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:
UO wins the next three games and they are in the playoffs period. The leading Heisman contender won't be elbowed aside by anybody.If the fuskies blow it against the #12 beavs, they wouldn't drop enough to matter and the Pac would have three top 10 ish teams before the conference championship. Any one loss Pac team is in this year. And this year, it will be the Ducks.
Arizona needs to step into the top ten. They hurt the conference by taking out Oregon State. Unless of course their rout today is a huge marker in the CFP Committee's eyes.
Are Arizona and Oregon State considered the Penn State, LSU, Missouri types this year? Or does the committee look at the PAC12 like the media is starting to feel?
Oregon State has to win looking like Ohio State v Michigan next week tonight in order to make OBD look playoff worthy. Even then, we need a 49-13 performance three weeks in a row to quell the narrative the PAC12 Champ is mediocre.
I expect a battle in Seattle type game in Ann Arbor next week. That is going to hurt OBD, because a similar battle in Atlanta resulting in a Bama win makes those four look better than us.
Titles go out the window unless we just obliterate the Beavers and the Fuskies. Style points are definitely going to matter.
As I speak, the Beaver-Fusky game is passing the eye test. They are pounding each other physically. That helps. Points will also if the Beavers win.
Then we need to just gut those damn builders. And the Fuskies.
That is the only way I see a playoff lock: gut the Beavers so convincingly it looks like nuclear war dropped, and singe Washington so convincingly, the Beaver victory (theirs and ours against them) look ordinary AND put a wet blanket on eye candy Blue Blood wonderkind matchups.
Sorry guys, I don't trust the committee.
By the way, OBD are an early 11 1/2 favorite next week. Not a good opinion of a "top ten" Oregon State, of the conference's reputation (though we are definitely that much better than fhem)
Either the Fuskies dominate tonight, of this game starts to look more like the battle in Seattle in my eyes. Otherwise, Four Best is going to haunt me.
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UW all the way.
Bama, Georgia Ohio State and Michigan are too Blue Blood to leave it to Beaver.
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I was at the Hall of Fame ceremony when Rich Brooks was inducted. It was clear that night he learned how to develop OBD into a perennial title contender. He figuratively built a Lego Land version of the Duck (think of our mascot lol)) that put Oregon on the list of future Blue Bloods.
If you include Chip Kelly, three coaches left unfinished business on the table, and all three threw away damn good shots at a national championship. For each one of them.
Think about that for a moment. All three had the talent, and two of them had the type of offense and defense to make it happen (the third flat out abandoned the most lethal offense Oregon has ever had in the history of the program).
I truly believe Cristobal made the right choice, because, as Miami is learning, he doesn't have the chops to turn a program into a champion (now he gets paid for their folly).
Taggart was an absolute fool. He hadn't learned how to develop any school into a champion, and walked away from the best talent he ever coached ( and recruited for that matter). It was all there for him to put together, and he shattered the paradigm that Oregon couldn't recruit elite talent
Poor Chip didn't realize professional football players don't give a damn about football. Watching Chip fundamentally transform that game of football was thrilling to say the least. Yet Chip proved brilliant football acumen is no match for greed and self interest.
Which brings me to one of the best young minds I've ever seen in the sport. Always prepared, thoughtful, and diabolically strategic. The guy can motivate, and is a superb leader. Everything one wants in an executive walks into Oregon's pressroom every Monday and remind us what world class excellence looks like.
We are extremely fortunate. We are witnessing history. Dan Lanning is giving Oregon it's best shot to finish what Rich Brooks started.
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On 11/11/2023 at 11:37 PM, bbmichaels said:
I'm just glad they got the win.
They need to clean stuff up if they want to beat the Beavs.
I have a feeling the absolute arse kicking will stick this time.
If you think we have a bitter taste from last year as fans...
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Man,
What will OBD look like if they eliminate the unforced errors and penalties?
This team is on the cusp. I hope they can fine tune those issues.
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Penalties and unforced errors are making USC look decent. This game should be an absolute obliteration.
OBD have lost their killer instinct.
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Got away with the push off. That is why I can't stand PAC12 refs. Ref was watching the ball instead I'd the WR/CB.
It's a conspiracy!!!!!!!!
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Disappointed in the breakdown on the last defensive drive. I don't USC to score in the 2H.
That is possible. Have to seal the edge better ( a glaring issue I see too often). But for the one 56 yard pass play, USC hasn't been able to move the ball much.
Hoping for adjustments to totally shut them down. We're in competition with Alabama, and holding USC scoreless in a half would serve notice OBD are a complete nightmare to face.
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Well,
There goes the shutout (an old guy can dream!).
Williams is the only reason they can score so much. Just can't defend that kind of mobility. Secondary looks good though.
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On 10/29/2023 at 12:04 PM, Jon Joseph said:
Great observation, Mike. Fortunately, the Ducks trip to Tempe and not Tucson. I want no part of the Wildcats in Tucson.
ASU is playing better but not at the level of AZ.
oops.
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On 10/29/2023 at 10:08 AM, Solar said:
Called it, unfortunately. AZ and Utah are the Big12's problem going forward.
I really hope our ASU game is not a late game.
I do actually. It is getting cold here in Nevada, and I suspect it will be in Tuscon as well. That favors our boys. Nothing worse than having to adjust to a kind of heat that also feels humid this time of year.
An East Coast Prime Time Kickoff would be ideal. Continue to get eyeballs Prime Time AND be able to work in PNW type conditions would be great.
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On 10/29/2023 at 9:26 AM, Charles Fischer said:
I am no expert, and your typical high school coach knows a lot more than I, thus I welcome feedback from others at this film session and we can all learn together. It is great fun...
Oh but I fear you more than any high school coach. You pick up what the experts do as well as the experts. And I doubt you have the hubris to stick to your guns just because you know football!!!
You're a chess player without even knowing it. Oh yes, I've had discussions with you that make Gretsky's spin move seem normal. Make Magic Johnson's no look passes ordinary.
I can only imagine what you would throw at high schools with the knowledge you throw our way (not to mention quite a few D1 coaches).
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On 10/29/2023 at 10:10 AM, Mike West said:
Which is why I stated they are ahead of schedule. I didn't expect the kind of performance they displayed in Seattle-especially the coaching. I expect it now-especially after Lanning explained himself after the UW loss.
To elaborate on this further. I have seen some brilliant analysis of OBD in this forum that have shaped my opinion of the team. Observations that have shaped my belief of where the team is, and perspectives about the coaching staff this year. When Lanning says he self evaluates, it seems like coach speak most times.
Looking at what the team has put on the field since backs up his words. WSU is dangerous, and it requires taking it to them immediately to blunt their belief they can play with anyone. Utah is dangerous when you give them leeway they don't deserve. Both teams faced a blunt instrument-the full force of our talent at the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense.
It is as if Lanning reads this forum because some of the comments I've seen appear to show up on game day. From play calling to attitude to showing the ability to calibrate aggressiveness into better results (more practical analysis of the conditions on the ground). I've seen comments about adjusting thought processes to what the team is facing real time, and low and behold the team is dealing with it real time and executing accordingly.
The players are loose as a goose, and clearly focused on handling business. They are dealing with the moment more frequently, something someone mentioned ( I can't remember who said it though). What I am seeing is a team that understands itself, and its opponents. That is a dangerous team because that kind of team can find solutions to the challenges of the moment.
And I got that from insights on this Forum. Iron sharpens iron. We may be on to something special here.
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On 10/29/2023 at 8:58 AM, Log Haulin said:
I agree Fusky made a few great plays that day. They put more points on the board. And they won the game.
Many have argued it came down to coaching decisions on a couple plays. That could be true also.
Maybe my thinking is flawed but the Ducks looked like the better team. The stat sheet seems to back up what I saw that day. But the stat that matters is points scored so you are right on this.
I don't think you're mistaken at all. I don't even believe your thinking is flawed. OBD did look like the better team, but we just missed out on some key plays that would have shown just how much better we are. I actually expected a loss, and I was quite pleased the team showed it could handle the pressure of a team that could perform as well as they do.
OBD erased a lead that appeared improbable. We certainly gambled too much-on offense and defense (in my opinion). They just played out of their minds and were clutch more than anyone expected.
We handled that atmosphere better than most would, including UGA and Michigan in my opinion (the two teams we would have to play absolutely flawless ball against). I also believe OBD are better than Washington. And the team as a whole are on a positive learning curve-players and coaches.
I talked to an expert whom I trust better than most. He thought Lanning gave the game away also-something I still disagree with, because I just don't think the Fuskies were going to lose that day. They coached as well as we did. What I especially took away from that loss was Lanning absolutely knows what he is doing.
Lanning planned and executed well for EVERY condition and the exact outcome. He knew FGs were not going to cut it. That has bourn out exactly since then. To the degree he had his players were very well prepared for Utah. Not only that, the players are starting to figure out football. Especially on defense. They are exactly where they are supposed to be no matter the opposition's play call.
I only saw three plays where defenders were out of position according to where they were supposed to be (from my perspective mind you-this probably isn't a universal opinion). The coaches and players adjusted quickly to Utah's adjustments-even when they didn't succeed initially. That is a direct reflection of how the game was called against Washington.
Teams can be better than you on a given day, and still not be better than you overall. Matchups and situations, and performance on that weekend predicated the Fuskies would win that day. I thought OBD played better than expected, and showed just how good of a team they really are. Which is why I stated they are ahead of schedule. I didn't expect the kind of performance they displayed in Seattle-especially the coaching. I expect it now-especially after Lanning explained himself after the UW loss.
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I believe we all tend to expect perfection, because frankly, it damn near takes perfection to consistently defeat the elite. I was looking for the ability to adjust real time to what is happening on the field. I saw that today on both offense and defense. We quickly took them out of their gameplan-or actually, we exploited their obvious weaknesses immediately.
It only took the defense a couple of series to shut down Utah's adjustments. It only took one additional series for the offense to do the same. I only saw three breakdowns in responsibilities on defense. The players were playing football as much as they were executing a strategy. By that I mean on defense, the players did what they are generally responsible for at each position. This was on top of being physical.
The focus on really improving is there. The players get it. They have to bring it every down, and they have to get better every day. The UW loss put a fire of urgency on this team. They are playing like every play counts. That is a first. It is becoming an expectation. I don't see complacency, or general satisfaction with a good play here or there. These guys are looking to be flawless. As close to it as possible.
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On 10/28/2023 at 11:40 PM, Log Haulin said:
Husky stadium was on fire. That atmosphere was crazy. Best team didn't win that day, it happens. Sucks!
Hate to say it my friend, the Fuskies were the better team that day. They made all the key plays (2/3 on 4th Down, ridiculous last minute 4Q TD pass against tight coverage-followed by our missed chip shot FG). It goes to show better talent doesn't always beat close to as talented teams.
We've played better since, but they made outlandish plays to our steady as she goes playmaking skills. Their strength-throwing into tight coverage and well designed middle of the field plays match a weakness we better solve-Safeties that vacate their area of responsibility on said well designed plays (and just looking at that damned QB too much instead of taking away the deep shots by finding and covering open WRs downfield).
If the Safeties boost their coverage skills, this defense is as elite as everybody else. Hopefully, this isn't a design flaw. That is, I hope it is the Safeties, and not the defensive scheme. We have a ball hawk run coverage Safety. We need ball hawk passing Safeties now. That's our Achilles Heel. If I want to beat OBD, I'm going after the Safeties.
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On 10/28/2023 at 3:58 PM, Desert Duck said:
Cal leading SC 36-29 late in the 3rd
I hope Cal wins...It will keep OBD focused
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That was the most complete game I've seen ODB play in a long time.
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On 10/18/2023 at 5:10 PM, Jon Joseph said:
I'm not certain about analytics but I do think that it is easier to make 1st downs on 4th downs when you are playing Portland State, Hawaii, and CU, instead of Oregon State and UW. Ducks were 8-10 on 4th down coming into Seattle but consider the opposition.
As Hayward noted, you have to play an opponent and not just the percentages. And the percentages will change based on the quality of the opponent. If the opponent you are playing does not affect your decision, then something is wrong (youth, inexperience, arrogance?) and you may as well simply use a computer to dial up plays.
One size does not fit all. I'm an old-school guy and IMO unless the score and game clock dictate otherwise, you best be certain of a better than a 70% chance of scoring the TD when you decide to eschew an almost certain 3 points within the opponent's 10-yard line. Especially, when you are an underdog on the road.
And if you go for the TD, you best have the right play called.
4th down to ice the game? OK, but it's not like Penix was driving UW up and down the field the entire game.
I think it's a though call period. Pressure on the line, reputation, titles....
These were game planned. I think Washington's 4th down calls were too.
The play choices were accurate. So it boils down to do you follow your game plan or not.
Given the facts as Lanning explained them, I'd take at least one shot. Not punting made me fret. Then our safety ran past a sure INT. Then Penix hit Another ridiculously covered WR.
What are the chances he drives a full field? I just don't know. What were the chances we erase an 11 point deficit?
What are the odds for anything lol.
I kick the first FG. But man, a wide open WR as the second progression? Nix hardly forces passes. What are the odds he does that twice in a game?
Those damn odds. Are they even reliable. What are the odds of that.
My head hurts.
Where's Han Solo and 3P0 when you need them?
And the million dollar question is: will Lanning game plan 4th down calls anymore?
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I don't know how we could get much better. This loss is no indication of what Stein has done. Decisions aside, the players have been given every opportunity to succeed.
Especially in this last game.
Stein erased an 11 point lead against a defense pundits underestimate. You know LSU's offense overshadowed their defense the year Joe Burrow shattered college football.
That's this year's Washington Huskies. We nearly dropped forty on them. Would have with two key executable plays going our way.
I'm hoping Stein sticks around awhile. We lost Dilly pretty quickly. If we lose Stein, this past game tells me Lanning not only knows what he's doing, he knows how to find the right guys to make sure it gets done.
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On 10/16/2023 at 9:54 AM, Log Haulin said:
Take care of WSU Ducks and do it decisively. Thats all that this team needs to focus on right now. The rest will get here soon enough
I actually feel sorry for WSU. The players know they didn't execute enough to win, and they're going to punish the Cougars for it.
I actually think Utah is going to beat the brunt from this too. I think a nuclear bomb is about to drop on Pullman and Salt Lake. Lots of carnage is going to be left behind.
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