On 4/5/2025 at 8:06 PM, GatOrlando said:

Florida? Don't get me started on our issues, hopefully Billy and DJ can put those issues to bed. But until they go it's nothing but hope.

Oh I think your Gators are going to make some noise this year.  They are a much better team with Lagway healthy.  In fact, they’re pretty dangerous and I feel the title goes through Gainesville this year.

 

Texas and Georgia must be on point all game to defeat your Gators this year.  I doubt Tennessee can beat them. 

On 3/22/2025 at 8:55 PM, cartm25 said:

Didn’t love Lupoi’s explanation; not compelling IMO.

 

With 3.5 weeks to prepare, I have a hard time accepting Lupoi’s “reasons”.

 

Any former coaches/ XsOs guys on the forum that can help me understand  the connection between game-plan and adjustments. If the other team is smoking your defense, can you make adjustments to nullify it, or are adjustments restricted by the game-plan?

It takes most coordinators a half to adjust to what they’re seeing.

On 3/21/2025 at 5:54 PM, 30Duck said:

History doesn't say, "Play to Win, except this game." No way does a team play to lose a game. If a loss happens, some benefits can come from it, that's the silver lining aspect. Say the Patriots had lost a game during the season, that doesn't mean they'd end up winning the Super Bowl. The L's to Washington two years ago sure didn't help Oregon, if Washington had lost one of them, would they have then beat Michigan and won the Natty?

I think you misunderstood my point.

 

You play to win.  Doesn't mean it's necessarily good to win all your games.

 

Beyond the pressure to continue winning, the odds of winning the next one diminishes .  The odds of winning 16 games in a row is 65,535 to 1.

 

The Cleveland Cavaliers won their 16th game in a row last week, and have lost four straight since.  No one of significance is injured on their roster.

 

Let's put that into Vegas numbers.  After 12 games, every time Cleveland is favored those next four games, your chance of winning by betting they'll lose skyrockets.  In fact, you could triple your bet after each loss and you're guaranteed to win money.

 

I don't gamble like that, but I sure pay attention to it.  One other thing, if you pay attention, not one sports book lays odds on any team going undefeated.  They know no one will risk their money, despite getting favorable odds 

 

Playing to lose doesn't really matter in the long run.  Your odds of losing pretty much takes care of it. 

On 3/20/2025 at 4:04 PM, AnotherOD said:

My unofficial, though not really thought that well over, list of the top 12 players the Ducks will miss the most in 2025 (and be hardest to replace - to which where the Ducks are at - and who they have waiting - to me is a big factor):

 

 

1. Josh Conerly Jr.

2. Derrick Harmon

3. Jamaree Caldwell

4. Tez Johnson

5. Jabbar Muhammed

 

 

6. Dillon Gabrial

8. Ajani Cornelius

8. Jordan Burch

9. Jordan James

 

10. Terrance Ferguson

11. Kobe Savage

12. Nishad Strother

 

Be interested in other thoughts?

 

That’s a pretty good list in a very well thought out order.

 

My concerns are as follows:

 

I believe last year was about matchups.  That said, we were literally missing a CB strong enough to slow down Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith.  Muhammad had that assignment, and though he covers very well, he wasn’t big enough to stop Smith ( I believe injured Jalhil Florence was, which would have allowed Muhammad to take down slot Ebuke-someone he could handle much better).

Another matchup was the way the LBs covered the TEs.  You know my thoughts…look at the guy you’re covering and you take away the QBs options.

 

On offense, it’s how fast the OL gels.  It would also help if they don’t have to wait 5 weeks to play an elite team again and take 2 1/2 Quarters to get back to game speed. My other concern is separation speed at WR, and Stein’s unwillingness to use Sequential Plays for his favorite play: the Bubble Screen. 
 

Now that I have your list to work on, I’m going to look into matchups.  Makes me wonder how coaching staffs and their analysts attack the off season.  I’m curious about what priorities they deem most important.  Is it personnel, scheme or which opponents they feel most threatened by?

Series Record: Oregon 1 – Montana State 0. On September 20, 1947. Oregon defeated Montana State 27-14. (I was six months old and have no recollection of this game.)

I was today years old when I read that paragraph. 

On 3/20/2025 at 11:48 AM, 30Duck said:

As Herm Edwards said, "You play to WIN the game!"

Normally I would agree with you, but history does not.  The Miami Dolphins are the only NFL team to go undefeated in the modern football area start to finish.  
 

The Dolphins played 17 games that year.  New England almost did, but had to play 18.

 

Michigan, Georgia and Clemson all went 15-0.  They all played in a two playoff game format.  Now college football is in NFL territory, with at least a three playoff game gauntlet.  
 

It will be astronomically difficult in this era of parity at the elite level to win all your games facing at least four or five elite teams the same year. A loss, in my opinion reminds you how much you must focus just to be in the field of dreams. 
 

Ohio State, easily the most talented team in a number of years, lost by a total of four points last year.  Those four points channeled more motivation-especially with the intent on embarrassing OBD-to prove their worth. 
 

Miami was so humiliated by their SuperBowl loss, they just went out and took it to every opponent the next year-and went undefeated. So…you know where I’m going with this.  Will Lanning finally go to the specialist and fix his woes on defense against elite offenses and go undefeated?

 

The past three years the title went to the team with an abundance of talent.  This year will be the first where I believe NIL takes that away completely.  
 

Texas is probably the most talented team on paper, but even they lost a good chunk of talent.  Penn State is an elite WR away from having an offense that would give everyone fits. 

 

So if DL and Lupoi can fix their problems with elite WRs…maybe just maybe.

On 3/19/2025 at 5:10 PM, Charles Fischer said:

I still often think about how...this might be part of Lanning's learning curve as a young coach who doesn't just want to be successful....he wants a 'Natty. That so difficult with all the great programs out there, and you need some luck with injuries.

 

Or catch Chip Kelly on his Michigan day, and not his Oregon day.

 

Lanning is learning pretty well, as the number of losses for each of his three years was three losses, (10-3) then two losses, (12-2) to one loss. (13-1) That is a pretty good trendline!

 

We'll get there...

 

We have one of the best coaches in the business.  All three current coaches with a Natty had to take their lumps.  And Kirby only beat Nick once . Same with Dabo.

 

After pundits blasted Lanning for the Seattle loss, his words told me all I needed to know.  The way he coached against Ohio State in October confirmed it in my eyes.

 

I believe beating Wisconsin was unfortunate.  We needed the sting of playing mediocre and losing about as much as Ohio State did losing to Michigan.  

 

It also might have helped to lose to Penn State.  Losing truly forces a team to pay attention.  Going undefeated bolstered the thought OBD didn't need to change much.  

 

 

 

I finally watched the full first half.  Sluggish is an understatement.  One thing for sure though, every foundational weakness was exploited.  Lupoi drags the DEs to middle of the box on the backside of the play-leaving the edge WIDE OPEN.  I thought this was a player thing until I saw both edges routinely slide inside all year.  Chip annihilated that opening, as every running TD attacked that strategy.

 

However, it was clear the players were ‘running at half speed’ the entire half on both sides of the ball.  The secondary literally ran like they had concrete blocks on their shoes.  They were reading and reacting very slowly.  Personally, I just don’t like the coverage rules, and of course you absolutely cannot cover your receivers if you look at the QB (Denzel Burke for OSU did so in October and nearly got burned again in Pasadena as well-so this isn’t just an OBD thing).

 

I just don’t like the defensive front.  In October, Lupoi ran more 4-3, but to little avail (the secondary got shredded, but it did shut their running game down).  I like that and a 5-2 because it totally shuts down the edges.  It does expose the back 4, but they don’t have good coverage rules as a practice-so in my ‘hack’ opinion it doesn’t matter until the coverage rules change ( I personally prefer matchup zone-which is what I think Lupoi actually installed, but seam coverage and overall coverage in the middle of the field was absolutely horrible).

 

This seems to be primarily against elite offenses however-as this was the third year those teams found every weakness and went to town.  I’m talking about having a party on the way to the end zone kind of attack. But again, I’m no coach, I’m just a hack.

 

My whole problem with coaching today is scheme outweighs basic football.  You can’t stop a great team if you don’t force running the ball inside the box, and you totally can’t cover elite passing games without all three LBs taking away options between the hashes (both the NFL and College hashes).  It takes film study to explain that, but that’s my take.  It’s also why if I’m a head coach, half my practice is forcing my coordinators to take the best of football on offense and defense and forcing each coordinator to defend and attack those elite strategies.  Script the first 7-8 plays each game to attack the general principles of your opponent on each side, and then it’s simply attack what they’re actually doing that day (which means you have prepared for world class offense and defense in advance).

 

My take of course (an NFL coach mentioned something to that effect in the Nineties without really saying that.  I’ve thought about just that-preparing for the elite by being prepared for any elite football scheme known to the history of football ever since).

On 3/17/2025 at 10:07 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Unknown as yet, but there sure are a ton of candidates.

 

While not a WR, Kenyon Sadiq is a matchup nightmare that will be a bigger part of the offense.  (For those on desktop or laptop....you can see my picture background behind the forum of Sadiq.)

 

Everyone expects that they will be Stewart, the transfer from Florida State, and we've been told from tons of sources that Dak Moore is the real thing and will be on the field this fall.  But I would suggest another name...Gary Bryant, the transfer from USC.

 

 

 

The real question...is Bryant healed from his injuries?

 

I like Bryant, I'm hoping Dickey is fully recovered from a very serious injury in high school ( if he is, I think he's going to shine).  Newbie Moore looks like the real deal, he's got a burst like Tez J.

 

McClellan looks promising as well as Super tall Kyler Kasper.

 

They all need to step up asfar as I'm concerned.  Make it really tough to choose a consistent rotation.  Not to mention attrition has now reached college football.

 

Sadiq though...

 

That dude is faster than most of the WRs.  I'd put him at slot against safeties/ nickel backs, as well as chomping on the LBs. 

 

Sadiq is a generational talent and should be used accordingly.

I LOVE both of your takes.  He did his job though didn't he?  

 

My question is who is going to step up in the WR room?  Stewart isn't enough.  Not to mention Penn State's shortcomings were directly related to weak WR play.

I believe the QB, OL, and RB positions are above average to excellent.  

 

My question is who are the two F22s in the room ( can I get two supersonic pass catchers please?)

This is a very good read...

 

Oregon Assistant Coach Confirms Major Roster Woes as Dan Lanning’s Plans for Dillon Gabriel’s Successor Announced - EssentiallySports

WWW.ESSENTIALLYSPORTS.COM

---

Oregon coach airs reservations about his side of the football after second spring...

 

Issues to ponder my Dick friends.  Are OBD in position to exceed last year's intro to the B1G?

Hythloday1 is very thorough.  I really like his analysis.  He is more about statistical performance, but he provides an analysis that provides a keen sense of what is happening and what may happen.

 

It’s a shame he derides us here though, because I’ve learned more here than what he provides ( I overwhelmingly agree with his analysis skills and what he believes by the way).

 

I doubt I’d be the analyst I am without the feedback I see and sometimes receive on this site.  It is more insightful, more balanced, and frankly we like Hyrthoday, refuse to suck up for preference with the University.

 

More often than not, we have a vision other sites seriously lack.  And you can’t suck when you provide analysis here.  We might not run you out of town, but you’ll get dressed down if you offer up a weak analysis.

 

That’s why I don’t subscribe to other sites.  I’m not paying ten dollars a month to witness a bunch of ill written analysis that frankly sucks.  Though there are times I’d like to tell a bunch of weak analysts that insults and deflection is not an analysis.  
 

All I know is I’ve been dressed down, and frankly we are all stronger, better analysts because we have to present solid arguments here. 

Fortunately, we live in a free market society.  So stupid people pay marginal people (.most times) stupid money.

 

The NCAA needs to stick to player health and welfare however.

 

If Michigan is stupid enough to throw away $5M on a potential QB, let them.  That's money they can't sprinkle to the rest of the team.

 

The downside to all this is other sports are going to suffer due to poor decision making. Not to mention alienating the fans.  

 

It's also why I have no sympathy for the players.  They get paid handsomely to deal with the rigors of the sport.  So idc if they travel to Pluto from now on.  It's part of the territory.  

 

Greed has consequences. 

On 2/17/2025 at 3:23 PM, HDuck said:

UCLA's Cronin was complaining about missing class time, but the reality is most trips include a weekend for football and basketball

Didn't they have remote classes during COVID?  Class time should not be a problem.  Not to mention access to professors shouldn't be a problem.

 

This is what happens when you want to get paid.  You're a professional now.  Comes with the territory.

 

Not to mention, those six to eight hours on the plan is ample time to study.  You do what you have to do.

 

I know I would jump at the opportunity to be tired and earn $50-100k while earning a degree.  

 

I have no sympathy or empathy for these players.  They worked their butts off to get that "scholarship".  It doesn't change...ever.

On 2/17/2025 at 11:04 AM, DanLduck said:

We have assumed the media package in 2030 will be bigger then now. But, if pharmaceutical companies can no longer advertise on TV, that's a huge chunk of revenue that needs to be replaced. Will Fox and others be able to not only replace that but find more $$ somewhere?

Very astute observation. I'm not sure how many people currently recognize they are on the butcher block. 

 

I foresee many media companies suffering without access to pharmaceutical ads ( talk about a growth line item the last ten years).

 

Of course, that would be disastrous financially for college football if trends remain the same.  Old geezers like most of us here pine for the good old days.  Will younger generations pick up the slack?

 

Fortunately college football is huge compared to other live TV, so media companies have a better shot at replacing the pharmaceutical gauntlet.  

 

It's looking more and more likely the super conference concept will take hold in the future.  

 

I'm interested in whether the P2 are beta testing that concept by adding inter conference matchups to see what and who gains traction (for example, we already know Ohio State, Alabama and Texas draw well nationally.  Who else will in a super conference?).

 

I'm not sure College Football has the capability of handling unfettered free agency the way the NFL can.  I think the private equity leadership will probably help the colleges and universities navigate this passage much better.  Hopefully they have a solid grasp of what truly makes college football tick.

 

On 2/16/2025 at 7:12 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Sixteen teams, no byes has a definite appeal. But unless the calendar is addressed and fixed by starting the season on week zero and flex scheduling in conference champ games, the season is too long. Of course, if these changes are not made with 12 teams the season is too long.

This!!!!!

Playoff appearances will count here.  Oregon has the Brand recognition.  Now OBD must advance far into each season, including at least a title before 2029 to secure close to the shares UM and osu2 will get.  I believe OBD are already at PSU’s level and climbing (it helped beating them in the CCG).

 

Though most will disagree, it’s time to start visiting the SEC powers ( since they obviously won’t be coming to Eugene).  We need a few victories in the South ( which is entirely possible given Lanning’s L3 recruiting classes).  Not to mention active recruiting in that territory is easier-especially with a win or two.

 

It’s time to take the tiger by the neck, and grip as long as possible.  Choke ‘em out if you can, but I doubt it results in death.  We are on the rise and it’s time to go after the jugular.  We have the right coach, and the timing is better now that NIL has leveled the playing field.

 

The SEC can’t hog all the players anymore now that they want to play (and get paid).  The SEC was able to hide their NIL before it was legal, and Scam Newton is ground zero as an example. 
 

The refs are starting to respect our brand, now it’s time to make everyone else pay attention.  Besides, we can start calling out Florida, Auburn, and Ole Miss for hiding their behinds in the South and claiming they’re national powers  (unlike Bama, LSU, Texas and Tennessee-who go anywhere, anytime).

Darren,

 

As usual, you can see the pattern amidst the chaos.  That’s exactly the kind of thing Coordinators do so well.  You’re at that level as an analyst.  

Probably a good move for the teams.  I wouldn’t like it.  I get what I feel,is advance notice of key future players.

 

It’s how I found Joe Burrow, Amari Washington, and the like.  Ohio State’s projected QB looks really good.  Saw him last Spring.  Same with Jeremiah Smith (you could see he was going to be pretty good). It’s how I knew the narrative about us losing to the third string Buckeye QB was actually the 2nd string QBs in the Spring (and he looked good then too).

 

This kind of move will deter staffs from also getting that kind of look as a strategy to poach players, AND players won’t get as much a sense of where they stand in the Spring (meaning they will work harder to secure playing time in the Fall).

 

Double edged sword for me.  I really like getting a sense of where OBD are in the Spring.  Especially on prospective young future impact players.

On 2/10/2025 at 12:34 AM, Jon Joseph said:

However, I do not believe that NFL-Lite will destroy college football.

I actually agree with you Jon.  It's just the threat of it concerns me.

 

We've long been past amateurism in college football. Since I was a freshman in college many many years ago.  I talked to the players, they knew back then opponents were paying players.

 

But this free agency situation is harming everyone.  I'm not keen on the House Settlement either.  I also don't believe that stems the tide, nor pits a check on outright greed.. 

 

That's what driving things now.  Pure greed.  Michigan proved they'll overpay an unknown just to lock him up.  Player counts are going back to 100 plus.  That's just a rerun if the seventies and eighties when blue bloods stocked talent to eliminate competition.

 

OBD will survive, but Northwestern is toast.  Vanderbilt is going to be a high school team.  And like Nevada Dawg stated, massively mediocre teams are going to reach the playoffs.

 

I liked a six or eight team playoff field.  That's the max number of elite teams the total  talent pool offers.. 

 

Let’s be frank,

 

The ACC and the Big 12 would be lucky to earn two playoff spots regularly moving forward.  They are about to fall behind significantly once the players get paid.

 

I agree with FishDuck.  Move to 16 teams, no byes.  Season begins Week 0, Big 12 and the ACC use CCG weekend as qualifiers (two games 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3-winners advance-a financial boon for both conferences).  Better yet, reduce the final week of the season to the top four each conference left open (the top four play for playoffs in the “second P2”, the top 8 play for playoffs in the P2).

 

Ratings would hit the roof if that proposal was slotted properly (would help, if the NFL took their players’ advice and eliminate Thursday Night Football).  
 

College Football needs the P4 to separate so the G5 can create their own playoffs, while still getting those million plus ‘preseason’ games.  There needs to be the thought that somebody like ASU can crash the Natty party.  Think March Madness football style.  
 

The networks can still get their NFL esque matchups every week.  Just pit the best of each conference against each other much like what ESPN just did to Notre Dame.  We already know Bama and Ohio State are the most popular teams.  And Texas.  People will watch a surging Ole Miss, Florida, or whomever play Ohio State, or  Michigan.  Same with Oregon vs Bama.  Or USC vs Texas.  Mid season at that. 
 

Slot Oklahoma State with Georgia.  Missouri at Penn State.  You get the idea.  Expose the SEC to the

entire country, now that they get four slots, bump the ratings, and fans from the Second Two will not only watch all season, they will eagerly await the playoffs.

 

Anything to be the opposite of the NFL will preserve college football.  Anything resembling the NFL will destroy it.

You brought up even better points David.  It really is a chicken or egg dilemma.  I think the players are good enough, and I believe the secondary issues seem like the weakness, especially given the amount of transfers that have started.  
 

Yet the questions you posed give pause to reconsider.  Either way, it’s clear Lanning gets plenty from his team.  He is getting better in the clutch, and now it’s a matter of elevating the units to complete elite status. 
 

OBD didn’t have the most elite prospects this year.  Several teams have more ‘NFL stock’.  13-1 is impressive when you consider that fact. 

On 1/30/2025 at 8:57 PM, David Marsh said:

Bassa has been back there all three with Lanning and he has great qualities, but he was never a Troy Dye player...

 

 

Speaking of which Lanning needs a Troy Dye in his backer corp. A great tackler and coverage guy and a fantastic leader. Defensive line felt good this year at times but still feels like it lacked that lock down ability on the run. I do feel the biggest problem continues to be the secondary. Hoping to see that change soon. 

 
 

 

Not to argue or anything, Bassa is having a good camp at the Senior Bowl.  I also believe he was good in coverage, but ineffective because…. You guessed it-he kept looking at the QB instead of covering guys running into his area of responsibility.  Boetcher has the same problem.

 

Lots mentioned DL has his recruits now.  Well, I’m concerned then because only DL Washington has truly stood out in the interior.  We have too many edge rushers in the mix in my opinion.  It’s why DL has had to go to the portal to fill the interior.  But we shall see this year if the guys inside are legit.  

 

I want a 4-3 / 3-4 combo formation.  It’s easier to seal the edge, set more flexible coverage rules, and frankly cover the entire field better.  But I’m just a hack, so I could be completely wrong. I just hope the defense starts grinding down elite offenses.  Still requires an elite offense though.  
 

I really like Lanning.  He beat Ohio State at home when I was pretty sure we’d lose that game.  He showed me he has the chops to step into the trophy box.  

That’s a good assessment.  But we’re talking about public institutions here.  Profit isn’t their first consideration.  Especially since they acquire a good portion of their revenue from Government grants, research and Endowments.

 

This more than likely stems from them not having had to compete like they currently do now.  The stakes are real now because it’s actual competition instead of structured competition.  Losing has real consequences. 

 

 

On 1/29/2025 at 6:17 PM, Intravenus de Milo said:

Now you guys get a sense of why we hate them so much.  Yes, hate is metaphorical here, at least for me, but it is safe to say I have more dislike for this team and fanbase than all others combined.

 

In general a smug fanbase, that until last year, had absolutely no reason to think so highly of themselves.

I am trying to be respectful here.  
 

The level of unacceptable behavior from Ohio State fans the past two years in my opinion leaves me no room for empathy for their feelings towards another fan base.  
 

Michigan cheated in 2021 and 2022.  Buckeye fans conflated that to 2023 knowing full well that was false.  Then they had the temerity to act like hyenas in the jungle after Ryan Day lost games this year.  Jackals as well.  
 

Death threats to a coach’s family is criminal in my opinion.  That is beyond unhinged behavior.  Calling him a loser when  the guy has one of the most winning records ever is ridiculous.  

 

 I will never look at the Ohio State fan base as acceptable.  Nobody in that fan base  took the time to say enough is enough. Nobody.  College football is not life and death.  It is a function of entertainment.  When people start personalizing the game to the degree they stop acting appropriately towards others is the time to put an end to such behavior.  
 

That not one Ohio State fan actually called out fans for such behavior is disturbing to me.  Worse, it was clearly evident to anybody that was paying attention that Ohio State was probably going to win the Natty.  That makes the behavior even more disgusting because is was simply pile driving the team for no acceptable reason. 
 

So, I am going to say I don’t have much empathy for a fan base that feels other fan bases are out of line.  Even Alabama fans have more decency than what Ohio State fans demonstrated the past 24 months.