Jon Joseph

ESPN SP+ maven Bill Connolly has weighed in with an SP+ by-the-numbers take on how teams should perform in their new conference home. (Bill's article on ESPN+ is behind a paywall.) You will note a difference in SP+ strength-of-schedule (SOS) rankings and the run-of-the-mill rankings. Unlike Sports Illustrated (SI) which uses a team's opponents' records in 2023 to value SOS, SP+ is a forward-looking metric that values a team's SOS by what SP+ says a team should play like in 2024. Following the money, I am focusing on the six teams moving on up to the Power 2; the B1G, and the SEC. Keeping with the $pirit of E$(ec)PN, let's begin with the $EC newbies, the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns. OKLAHOMA - SP+ 2024 15th/ 2023 17th Wins - 7.5/SEC wins - 3.6 SOS - 2024 3rd/ 2023 52nd A much more difficult SOS 'welcomes' the Sooners to the SEC. Six of the eight SEC opponents are SP+ ranked 16th or better. Oklahoma is moving from a '2-team conference' which it dominated to the deepest conference in the USA. And with the SEC punting on adding a conference game to play nine in a season and duplicating the 2024 conference schedules in 2025 but for a change of venue, Oklahoma gets to do this again next season. Plus, in 2025, Michigan comes to Norman for an out-of-conference (OOC) game. TEXAS - SP+ 2024 4th/ 2023 6th Wins - 9.9/ SEC wins 6.4 SOS - 2024 14th/2023 33rd Per Bill Connolly - "The only reason the Longhorns are ranked 14th in SOS is because of a nonconference trip to Michigan in Week 2. Texas does face a tough-as-it-gets visit from SP+ No. 1 ranked Georgia the Saturday after the Red River Rivalry Game vs, Oklahoma, but the only other SP+ top-20 SEC opponent on the schedule is the last regular game of the season in College Station vs. Texas A+M." Texas is flying into the SEC in 1st Class. In addition to playing Texas in Dallas, Oklahoma welcomes Tennessee and Alabama to Norman and visits Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. Whew! That's the Coach seat next to the lavatory in the back of the plane. Sports Illustrated 2024 SOS ranking - Oklahoma 11/ Texas 49. The B1G Story - Welcome OBD and 3 Other Newbies UCLA Bruins - SP+ 2024 26th/ 2023 27th Wins - 6.2/ B1G Wins - 4.4 SOS - 2024 13th/ 2023 62nd You will recall, perhaps, that in 2023 UCLA did not play a P5 team OOC and also missed playing Oregon and Washington. UCLA takes the B1G-gest step up in the SP+ 2024 SOS rankings, 49 spots. The Bruins play LSU in Death Valley. (The week before playing OBD in LA.) UCLA's last regular season game in 2024 is against a good Fresno State team in LA. UCLA and new head coach DeShaun Foster, open the season playing Hawaii in Honolulu. Later in the season, the Bruins play Rutgers in New Jersey.; the farthest a college team will travel between games in 2024. In total, UCLA will fly 26,762 miles in 2024 to play six away games. Oregon's first B1G game will be played against old foe UCLA in LA on Saturday, September 28th. SP+ has UCLA higher ranked in the preseason than any preseason poll I have seen. USC Trojans - SP+ 2024 21st/ 2023 31st Wins - 6.4/ B1G Wins - 4.8 SOS - 11th/ 2023 - 23rd Bill Connolly: "USC is looking at only a 71% chance of qualifying for a bowl game." Yes, SC has a very tough schedule in 2024. SI ranks the Trojans schedule as the 2nd most difficult in the land. However, in 2024, SC does not play B1G champ favorites Ohio State and Oregon. SC plays at Michigan and a weakened Washington team in Seattle but plays Penn State (the Saturday after PSU plays UCLA in Happy Valley) and Wisconsin in LA, and misses a tough-as-nails-on-D Iowa team. It is conceivable that SC could drop the OOC games vs. LSU and Notre Dame and still qualify for the B1G Champ game. Mr. FishDuck and I have chuckled over a possible SC/Oregon B1G Champ Game on December 7th in Indianapolis. This would be a Day of Infamy for the traditional B1G schools; especially, the Ohio State University. The Other School Up North SP+ 2024 35th/ 2023 13th [SP+ did not like all of those 1-score wins] Wins - 6.5/ B1G Wins 3.8 SOS 2024 16th/ 2023 12th In its final seven games in the 2024 season, Who W plays seven teams, including the Ducks, Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, SP+ ranked 26th or better. Jedd Fisch is bringing in a quality QB in Will Rogers, who never met a Mike Leach play call he didn't like, along with a couple of big-name coaching sons of guns: Brennan Carroll and Steve Belichick. With a roster well beyond decimated, Jedd is going to need the help. However, Jedd sticks around Seattle and does not flee to his alma mater Florida, or elsewhere, and he will get the Huskies back to barking. The ultimate game of the 2024 regular season should get Danno off of the 0-3 UW whitewash. OREGON (Give It Up For OBD!) SP+ 2024 3rd/ 2023 3rd - (SP+ at the end of the 2023-24 season liked Puddles better than Bevo and that Flea Magnet Up North) Wins - 10.4/ B1G Wins 7.5 SOS - 2024 26th/ 2023 42nd [SI SOS 2024 - Oregon 5th/ Ohio State 57th] In 2024, Oregon is the only Power 4 team that will play eight games in a row without a break. Including the OOC game versus Boise State, the Ducks will play six (6). half the schedule, games against teams in the SP+ top 40. Puddles will be playing plenty of 'Quad 1' games. ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Happy 4th OBD Campers + Get Ready For Some B1G Fireworks!

Thank you, Mr. Mandel: "(Note: [In 2023] the Pac-12 still existed ..." Let the word go forth all across Canzano Land!

Mandel's Mailbag: Brian Kelly vs. Lincoln Riley, plus, should we be rooting for Dabo Swinney? WWW.NYTIMES.COM Could NC State win the ACC? Will Tennessee live up to expectations? The 2024 college football season is approaching. Missing your Heisman-winning QB. Check. Defenseless in 2023. Check. B1G money spent on new D coaches out West and down in Dixie. Check. Riley tried to bail out of the game because he's S(E)Cared. Check. More Tigers than Trojans in the house. Check.

Not a single NCAA championship since 1939.

The Saturday Down South PO prediction. Predicting the Playoff: No. 7 seed Notre Dame WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM The Irish might have the most favorable Playoff path among the contenders.

OK, Stewie is all over the map in the manner in which he applies his definition of College Football's New World Order. Here's an attempt to find some order in his grading. Pac-12 - Only Oregon and CU receive positive grades leading me to believe that Stewie has no idea how superior the coverage of B1G teams will be than was the coverage of teams in the Pac-12. No recognition of East Coast Bias from Stewie. Even SC post-Carroll had but for Williams Heisman QB play, fallen off of the national map. I would have had all four schools headed to the B1G no lower than +2. -5: Cal, Oregon State, Washington State. The latter two likely deserve a -10. From P5 to what exactly? Neither Pac-2 team will be treated as a Power Conference team for the next two seasons and not after the reverse merger with the MW or wherever these two end up. -4, Stanford and UCLA, -3, ASU, -2 USC, UW, and Arizona, -1 Utah, +1 CU, and +2 OREGON. For Oregon, I'm going with +4.5. The only concern is playing against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. Oregon recruited against all three before and being in the B1G helps when going against these three for top drawer recruit. B1G - Ohio State is +5 and Oregon is +2? Ohio State benefits from the B1G adding a program that can compete with Ohio State and at least in the last outing, went toe-to-toe with and defeated the Buckeyes in Columbus. Ohio State benefits by traveling to the the Left Coast to play teams that are all better than the bottom of the B1G. Ohio State benefits by not playing Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State, and Indiana every season. Stewart, I don't think so. Always a playoff bridesmaid 10-2 Penn State benefits from being free from the East Division. but I do not believe the same is true for Michigan and Ohio State. Iowa -4? Stewart, Iowa is officially out of the West Division shelter; however, Iowa is the only B1G school with three permanent opponents and all are from what once was the West Division: Minnesota; Nebraska; and Wisconsin. One-third of Iowa's opponents every season are in the same time zone. Penn State has no protected opponents. Iowa's in-conference schedule and travel will vary much less than PSU's and all other B1G teams with fewer than three protected opponents. SEC - I do not see how any SEC team benefits from having Oklahoma and Texas join the SEC. In 2024 and 2025, Georgia will play Texas away, and at home, Alabama will play in Norman, and Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa in 2025. Georgia is no longer assured of playing South Carolina and Vanderbilt every season. Alabama is no longer assured of playing Mississippi State and Arkansas every season. Neither Alabama nor Georgia had much of a problem making a 4-team playoff so how are they benefitted from the playoff moving to 12 teams? Moving to 12 teams means winning at least one or two more games to win a championship. B12 - YAWN. ACC - Be sure to catch the shot Mandel took at Mari(o.) It is familiar. Let's Play Ball!

Here's an answer from The Athletic's Stewart Mandell. Ranking CFB teams better off (Texas), worse off (USC), or same (Nebraska) in new era WWW.NYTIMES.COM Is your team better or worse off in the new college football landscape taking effect this year? USC is not the flavor of the month.

Ranking CFB teams better off (Texas), worse off (USC), or same (Nebraska) in new era WWW.NYTIMES.COM Is your team better or worse off in the new college football landscape taking effect this year? Expansion (and contraction) winners and losers.

Scarlet + Grey (Ohio State site) with some love for the Ducks? Other Big Ten teams besides the Ohio State football team who can make the CFP SCARLETANDGAME.COM The Ohio State football team isn't the only Big Ten team who has a chance to make the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

How many games will Michigan have to win in 2024 to be a playoff team? Calculating Michigan football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid GBMWOLVERINE.COM The 2024 college football season is going to be the first that features the 12-team playoff. As far as Michigan footballfourth is concerned, that provides a gre Maize and Brew make a guess here but until we receive data from the PO Committee the answer is 'Who knows?' Let's take a look at a couple of M + M's. Sports Illustrated (SI) ranks Michigan as having the 10th most difficult schedule in the nation in 2024. SI ranks Missouri's schedule as the 127th most difficult. Mizzou will play Two, Dos, II, Due, teams in 2024 that won eight or more games in 2023. Oklahoma in CoMo, and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Michigan will play seven teams with eight or more wins in 2023, including two of 2023-24's playoff participants. Fresno State, App State (what could go wrong?), Texas, USC, UW, OREGON, and Ohio State. It's down to 10-2 Mizzou, with a loss to Bama, OK, or both, and 9-3 Michigan for the 7th at-large spot in the playoff. Playoff Committee, which team gets the nod? December 8, 2024, could become a second Day of Infamy for college football fans.

NCAA - The lawyers' lifeline. 'WE never win, but WE get paid!'

Danno coming in 2nd is impressive.

Athlon's take on the B1G race. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-football-2024-predictions

CBS Sports ranks Danno as one of the B1G's best head coaches. Big Ten coach rankings 2024: Ryan Day recaptures No. 1 spot as Lincoln Riley, Dan Lanning debut in top five - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Ranking the Big Ten coaches ahead of the 2024 season as the conference welcomes four new members "Sorry, Linc but I am not about to share the secrets to recruiting. Maybe you should ask Chip Kelly?"

Maryland in the Big Ten: From 'what are we doing?' to 'amazing decision' WWW.NYTIMES.COM There’s more enthusiasm for the Big Ten around College Park than there was during the school's muted celebration in 2014. I posted this article elsewhere on OBD today. The more I pondered the article I felt it was worth a separate subject post as the concerns Maryland fans and administrators went through ten years ago are with Oregon today. Without the move to the B1G, Maryland powers-that-be knew they would not have enough revenue to adequately sponsor and fund varsity athletics. Maryland recognized (as Clemson and Florida State have recognized) that the ACC was not going to produce and provide adequate income to allow the Terps to compete at championship levels. ( Why can't John Canzano, Jon Wilner, Ashley Adamson, and unspooled Beavers and Cougars fans figure THIS out? It's painful but it's the Real World of business and not the mythology of the Student-Athlete playing after-school sports,) As a founding member of the ACC in 1953, it was difficult to decide to go B1G. The campus was split and there were a lot of angry Maryland alumni. Today, Maryland has thrived in sports like lacrosse, soccer, and men's and women's basketball. A once-insolvent athletic department usually finishes close to breaking even or in the black. The trepidations of a decade ago have disappeared. The Terps are happy campers who wish their football team would do something B1G!

Thanks, Ryan, but I am mindful of your caveat: Time will tell if Dan's recruiting will result in on-field championships. To date, Dan has not won a conference championship. The recruiting is en fuego, no doubt. The coaching except for needing to perhaps improve in-game decision making is there. Hopefully, Dan and friends will stay on this run through early signing day and translate the recruiting and portal success to a title on Oregon's maiden B1G voyage. 👍👍👍

I hope Oregon will be hoisting the B1G Trophy; however, I do have some of Geroge Schwartz's hesitation built in. The schedule is difficult. Only once this season will Oregon have two conference games back-to-back in Autzen, 10/5 vs Michigan State and 10/12 vs Ohio State. Sports Illustrated (SI) ranks Oregon as having the 5th most difficult schedule in the nation. Ohio State's schedule is ranked as the 57th most difficult. Ohio State and Michigan play 8 home games. Oregon had 8 home games on the schedule but now has 7. Byes in week 4 and the penultimate week of the season is a bad draw. This results in 8 conference games in a row without a break. The last 4 of the 8 are a yo-yo: Illinois; at Michigan; Maryland, with the Terps coming off of a bye week, and, at Wisconsin, with the Badgers coming off of a bye week. SI ranks USC with the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation but this is due to the Trojans playing LSU and Notre Dame out of conference. Oregon has the most difficult schedule in the B1G conference in 2024. It's doable no doubt. But it will not be an easy row to hoe, including having to most likely match up with Ohio State again in the B1G champ game on 12/7/24 in Indianapolis, 175 miles from Columbus and 2262 miles from Eugene. I love everyone's enthusiasm and hope Danno and company will make it so.

Many Terps fans concerned about the move to the B1G a decade ago are now delighted. Slow and steady wins the race. Maryland in the Big Ten: From 'what are we doing?' to 'amazing decision' WWW.NYTIMES.COM There’s more enthusiasm for the Big Ten around College Park than there was during the school's muted celebration in 2014.

With Saban's retirement only 3 active coaches have won a national championship - Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney, and Mack Brown. Today, these 3 have to deal only with 8 and not 9 conference games in the regular season. This is an elite company. Any criticism of a coach entering his third season for not winning a title is way off base. And winning a title is not getting easier. CFB has gone from the media deciding titles, a title could be won even if a team decided not to play in a bowl game, to winning one postseason game, then two games, and today, having to win three or four postseason games. Further, in the next two seasons, the playoff format and game venues provide advantages for teams located in the south. In 2024, Oregon is one of 16 schools with a Blue Chip Roster but the only Power 4 school playing eight weeks straight without a break. The Ducks' 2024 SOS is No. 5. Ohio State's SOS is 57. Keep up the good fight under Danno and titles will come. Not all schedules are created equally. This season Rutgers misses Iowa, Michigan, Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State, and plays UCLA and UW in Jersey. In 2025, Oregon will play neither Michigan nor Ohio State. Kick the damn ball off! Vandalize the Vandals!

6 B1G teams currently reside in the 2025 recruiting top 25 - Wisconsin, Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan, OREGON and Ohio State. 10 of the 16 SEC teams are in the top 26.

Welcome to the New College Landscape: How Each Power Four Conference Stacks Up WWW.SI.COM The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC each gain members as the great migration in college athletics officially begins today. Check out all of the NCAA titles won by the (New) SEC in 2023-24. WOW!

Phil Steele - Oregon WRs are a B1G Deal! Phil Steele: Top 25 Wide Receiver Unit Rankings ahead of 2024 college football season - On3 WWW.ON3.COM The college football season grows closer by the day, which means it's prediction season for college football magazine mogul Phil Steele. I wonder what Buckeyes fans think about this?

From Traveler's mouth. One fact shows how much Oregon has surpassed USC in football recruiting SPORTS.YAHOO.COM The numbers don't lie when Oregon and USC football recruiting are discussed. Nuck, nuck, nuck 🤣.

Bye, bye Pac-12 and you too Pac-2. As the calendar flips to July, the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 expand while the Pac-12 is officially down to two teams SPORTS.YAHOO.COM The Pac-12 is officially a two-team league.

Looks like you have to win a Natty to tick off fan bases coast to coast. Alabama = The New York Yankees. IMO, along with many others, Notre Dame is and has been the most obnoxious program in the USA. Many Ohio State fans appear to be unspooled. Ryan Day has lost 3 B1G games since his hire in 2019. Unfortunately, all have been to That Team Up North. tOSU fans are the most obnoxious in the B1G. Although SC is close. Today, SC fans would vote Oregon as the most annoying. SC is losing recruiting battles to Danno far more than to Ryan Day. Come 2026-27 and it may well be Oregon that's at the top of the B1G - 'Take your ball Puddles, and fly home' list.'