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Everything posted by Jon Joseph
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My Oregon Football Fantasy: Can We Hold This Moment?
But at some point, maybe, perhaps, your SOS will be parsed by the PO Committee. I'm certain that the Committee will compare Oregon's game vs. SC to the SC game against Notre Dame. A lot of ranked teams beaten down by the great Ducks D are no longer ranked and this could be problematic on 12/3/23. Nevertheless. Oregon goes 3-0 and 1-0 in the conference champ game and I think that Oregon is in the final Final 4. It's obscure but 4-5 Texas Tech winning 2 of its last 3 games, on the road at Kansas and Texas and at home vs. UCF would help the Ducks cause. To date, Oregon has wins, impressive wins, no doubt, against teams that will not go bowling and we know that ASU will not qualify for a bowl and gave up a bowl appearance earlier in the season. A win vs. USC? I'll be a happy Ducks camper but a style point win will help the PO cause. Spot on comment, thank you.
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
I watched and listened to Joel Klatt on BTN Today. Joel has no problem with Oregon being the highest-ranked 1-loss team especially, with Quinn Ewers out for Texas. But the scheduling point he made is the following. If Alabama had played Texas State instead of playing and losing to UT, Bama would be no lower than the 4th ranked team. As Joel noted, the Committee's process is to lump the undefeated teams together, then the 1-loss teams, then the 2-loss teams, etc. Thus wins for the initial view by the Committee trumps everything including SOS and SOR. Until the Committee proves that it places more weight on SOS and SOR, it isn't brilliant for teams, especially B1G teams playing 9 conference games, to add a P4 team, at least a top program P4 team to the schedule. I think LSU, USC, and UCLA playing one another in 2024 is a mistake for all involved. You may get an impactful win but a win weeks before the Committee comes with its first ranking. Impressing AP voters? Who cares. Michigan as of now, is #3 in the rankings with 3 OOC home games against G5 teams and no games vs. top 25 teams before Michigan plays Penn State this Saturday. If you finish in the top 3 and likely the top 4 in the B1G come 2024 and thereafter, you will have a great shot at making the PO. And come to the expanded PO, making the field will be important when it comes to recruiting and of course, for the money. I continue to believe that playing Oklahoma State in 2025 and 2026 would be a mistake, especially when the Ducks could buy another home game in 2026. Playing on the road in Boise, Idaho and Logan, Utah speaks for itself. OREGON has nothing to gain and a lot to lose playing OK ST and also Baylor. Being gutsy with OOC scheduling is far less important than getting the win. Want an extra P4 game then play Cal and Stanford OOC.
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BREAKING: USC Defensive Coordinator Alex Grinch Fired
Great take. But if there is a chance to shorten the game vs. the defending Heisman Trophy winner who put up 42 points vs. UW when OREGON put up 33, IMO it makes sense to keep Caleb off the field and looking for his Mom post-game.
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Look! Uniforms for USC Game
I like these unis. But for a night game in particular, why not go with easier-to-see yellow helmets?
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The Deja Vu Ducks are Once Again Perched at 8-1
Thank you, Darren. Don't forget the impressive comeback win vs. UNC and QB Drake Maye in the Holiday Bowl. A win when Bo was still playing with an injured leg. A win that allowed OREGON to finish with a double-digit win total. Pretty remarkable under a first-year coach in his first year of being a head coach and after being trounced by Georgia in the opening game. I have seen very few 'experts' call this game for SC. Stewart Mandel of The Athletic predicts OREGON 56 and USC 28. USC has nothing to lose here and comes to Autzen ready to let it all hang out on O and perhaps, a D juiced up from saying so long to Grinch. USC, along with OREGON are the only 2 Pac-12 teams with Blue Chip rosters. With the 1-loss team log jam in the Committee rankings, OREGON 6, Texas 7, and Bama 8, the Committee will evaluate this game compared to the beatdown of USC in South Bend. I think the Ducks go 4-0, win the Pac-12, and make the Final 4. Mari(o) with back-to-back games at FSU and vs. Louisville has a chance to help the Ducks cause. Texas at TCU will likely again be without QB Ewers and this is a huge game for TCU. Bama should win at Kentucky, will defeat Chattanooga (DUH,) and should win the Iron Bowl on the road at Auburn. I would love it if OREGON makes the PO as the #3 seed and plays Michigan or Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Another chance to beat down FSU in the Rose Bowl would also be nice. GO DUCKS! BEAT SC!
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Visiting Eugene for Game - What Else To Do?
A note on Mic's great comment. OREGON vs. USC would be more of a rivalry if the teams played more often. It's not as bad as Ole Miss at Georgia on Saturday for the 1st time since 2012, love those 8 game conference schedules, but the Ducks have not played the Trojans since the Ducks conference champ game win in 2020. This is due not only to Divisions, now gone, but also to the California Scheduling Agreement so SC fans could enjoy a trip to the Bay area every season. Have a blast, attend Charles's soiree if at all possible, and GO DUCKS, BEAT SC! FWIW - The Athletic's Stewart Mandel calls the game OREGON 56 and SC 28.
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College Football Playoffs, More Changes than Just Expansion
Love the idea. But the games are not played for nothing. Broadcasts of the champ games are factored into the media deals with each conference. The games are money-makers. Far more so than all but the top bowl games, playoff, and NY6. Getting rid of the champ games with everyone opening in Week 0 would allow for a 16-team PO with revenue sharing for the players. The B1G $ win comes in 2026 once ESPN loses its exclusive playoff broadcast deal. But if you add Kansas and Notre Dame to the B1G and Clemson, FSU, UNC, and NC St to the SEC, do you need more than a Power 2 "Playoff?" If the above teams were added to the Power 2, an 8-team PO with 1-4 from each conference, and using current rankings, the following would be the matchups and the seedings. 4. OREGON at 1. UGA 3. Bama at 2. Michigan 4. Ole Miss at 1. Ohio State 3. UW at 2. FSU Remember, ranked teams Texas, Penn State, Tennessee, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, LSU, Notre Dame, Iowa, and UNC, would all be playing for a top 4 spot in P2 and entry into the PO. Oregon State would be the currently highest-ranked team not in the running. With 20 teams in the B1G and the SEC, you could have the top 8 finishers in each conference playoff. Play the first 2 rounds on the home fields of higher-ranked teams. Look at the remaining teams in the Committee's top 25 and left out of the Power 2. Would any left-out teams significantly add to the media deal bottom line or truly be in contention for a title? The media deal would be significant. Even more so if carried exclusively on the ESPN/SEC Network and the Fox/Big 10 Network. I do think something like an NFL-Lite CFB playoff is coming.
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Whoa. Big Step Forward for the Oregon Defense?
I wish I could make it to the Friday get-together. Have a blast! How about the remains of teams after they go against the Ducks D? UW came close to losing to 2 of the worst teams in the conference. CU post-Oregon is in free fall. WSU was limping before the visit to Autzen but now it appears that the Cougs will not make a bowl game. It is certainly impressive how the D has improved in year 2 under DL and Tosh. But, the problem with mugging the opponents is that once-ranked teams are now off the board. NR Arizona after beating 3 ranked teams in a row (a feat accomplished by Georgia in 2006 when the Dawgs were NR and defeated 3 ranked teams in a row,) is now ranked but the Ducks, thankfully IMO, play at ASU and not at AZ. UW's win at Arizona is looking a lot better today. Both LA teams are now unranked. USC is flaming out, so if Oregon defeats SC, it still would be one win over a ranked team for the Ducks. Oregon State at 12 is nice. Even a loss to UW is not likely to drop the Beavers out of the top 25. Oregon needs UW to win out giving the Ducks a chance for a win against a top 5, at least, opponent in Las Vegas. That is if both teams make it to LV. And Mari(o) how about doing something for Puddles by upsetting FSU on Saturday? Miami is a 14.5-point underdog and is playing more like a heavy thunderstorm than a hurricane. There will be no bowl or likely no bowl for Hawaii, Texas Tech (4-5 and have to play at Kansas and Texas in Austin), CU, Stanford, Cal, WSU, and ASU. And Portland State will not be in the FCS playoff. Texas and Bama are lurking.
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College Football - 2nd Playoff Ranking - Eye Test or What Have Done on the Field?
How big a win is defeating Clemson this season? Clemson is 5-4. Based on the teams played and beaten, IMO UGA should be #1. Ohio State is getting far too much mileage out of a close as it can get win at Notre Dame. And Notre Dame is still ranked because Clemson was terrific a few years back. I hope that the CFB world figures out how to go to a 16-team playoff in 2026. Of course, 17 and 18 will whine but without justification. At the very least, I am happy to see CFB going to 12 next although giving the 4 highest ranked conference champions the top 4 seeds along with a bye will foul up the seedings. Projected out to 2024, B12 champ Utah would have a bye, and Michigan would not.
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
The Pac-12 schedule Oregon has played to date is not that impressive. Utah is the only opponent with a winning record the Ducks have defeated. And some of this is because teams nose-dived after being beaten up by the Ducks D. UW was darn lucky to win its next two games after a close win over Oregon. CU, WSU, and USC have flamed out. There is now one PO Committee-ranked team remaining on the schedule, Oregon State. Will the Beavers remain ranked if they lose to UW in Corvallis? So yes, the bottom half of the B1G is weak but Oregon is not playing a 12. ranked Mizzou, #9 ranked Ole Miss, and at #13 Tennessee, as is Georgia. I know that Texas defeated Bama before The Tide settled on a QB but I was frankly surprised last evening to see Oregon remaining as the top-ranked 1-loss team. Oregon is getting more love for a close loss and the win at Utah than Bama is for defeating Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU, all 3 are ranked in the Committee's week 2 rankings. 'Cowardice?' I don't think so. I think it would be a prudent business decision to cancel out against 2 B12 teams, arrange for 2 more home games, and not give the B12 a ratings boost. Ohio State canceled an H+H with UW with little notice and no one accused tOSU of being cowardly.
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College Football - 2nd Playoff Ranking - Eye Test or What Have Done on the Field?
It was a bit of both. The Committee's love for FSU baffles me. By any metric, UW should be ranked ahead of FSU.
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
Good thought. Fine, play Rice-a-Roni. I just do not see a game at OK ST and Baylor being the deciding factor in a top-drawer HS player's decision. Come 2024, Oregon will have plenty enough on its plate, and playing in a Power 2 conference will speak for itself. I think in 2024, a game against Ohio State at home and a win will have a far greater impact than playing any B12 team.
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My Oregon Football Fantasy: Can We Hold This Moment?
1 team to date with a winning record defeated. No rain in Autzen or on your parade but to date, Oregon's impressive win has come at Utah. No other team the Ducks have beaten has a winning record. Not to say Oregon has not played well, it has But to date, the competition on paper has not been all that great. TCB vs. USC, ASU, and vs. Oregon State. But based on the record to date, hopefully, Oregon will play a 12-0 UW in Las Vegas. BEAT no longer ranked SC!
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Second Official College Football Playoff Rankings of 2023 Season
Tua this season has been great against teams with a losing record and zero Ws vs teams with one. CJ Stroud was dissed and to date has been The Man in his rookie season. The Texans are most happy that CJ fell to #2, Year after year when it comes to QBs, these brilliant NFL scouts find a reason not to take the best QB. Bo has started 56 games and counting. Has a very quick release and better than decent downfield arm strength and accuracy. I'm a Pats fan. I went to the first game the Pats played in 1960. This may be over-the-top but I see a lot of Brady in Nix. Brady is bigger at 6'4" but Bo is right there in recognizing D formations and taking advantage of same. Recognition matters more than how deep you can throw the football. There is no substitute for in-game experience. IMO, there is no one better to lead OREGON through the next 3 games, a conference champ win, and into the playoffs. In the champ and playoff games, Stein has to let it all hang out. No more short-side roll-out plays on big plays. Let Bo use his legs as well as his arm and his passing the ball accuracy. Beat SC!
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Second Official College Football Playoff Rankings of 2023 Season
And why OREGON wants UW to win out and for the Ducks to defeat UW in LV, decisively at that? Quinn Ewers will be back for the B12 champ game, probably versus a ranked OK State team. And Bama runs the table and defeats a 12-0 UGA in the SEC champ game? FSU is getting a lot of love for a win over 3-loss LSU and on the road against 5-4 Clemson. Louisville is not the same team on the road as it is at home. With this coaching staff, I am not concerned about the trip South.
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
Bama does go on a trip to Wisconsin next year for the 1st of an H+H series. Michigan coming off of the 2 year back-to-back playing no one OOC, plays Texas in the first of a back-to-back. WHY? Michigan playing no one OOC in 2023 is ranked #3. And playing no one OOC last season made the Final 4. But at least these are quality P4 opponents and not B12 opponents. Why do the Ducks have to trip to OK St in 2026 and to Baylor down the road? These are not impactful Playoff opponents. Everything to lose for Puddles and very little, if anything, to gain. GET SMART! And Beat USC!
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Second Official College Football Playoff Rankings of 2023 Season
Doctor, more importantly, IMO, we need UW to win out. And the Ducks to win out and take down UW in LV. What's Left for Teams with a Final 4 Chance - 1. Ohio State - MI St, Minnesota, at 3. Michigan 2. UGA - 9. Ole Miss, at 13. Tennessee, at Georgia Tech 3. Michigan - at 10. Penn State, at Maryland, 1. Ohio State 4. FSU - Miami, NO. Alabama, at Florida 5. UW - 18. Utah. at 12. Oregon State, WSU 6. OREGON - USC, at ASU, 12. Oregon State 7. Texas - at TCU, at Iowa State, Texas Tech 8. Alabama - at Kentucky, Chattanooga, at Auburn 9. Ole Miss - at 2. UGA, LA- Monroe, at MS St. 10. Penn State - 3. Michigan, Rutgers, at Michigan State 11. Louisville - UVA, at Miami, Kentucky It was so great to see Bo on the Playoff ranking show. But what is McElroy's damage? Fine with FSU at 4, but OREGON should be behind Bama and Texas? Oregon does not have North Alabama, Chattanooga, or LA - Monroe left on its schedule.
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
I love Oregon moving to the B1G where SOS is ipso facto fine. I do not like adding P4 teams to the schedule or going on the road to Boise and Logan, Utah.
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
And why with all of the upcoming travel, trip to Stillwater, OK, and Waco, TX?
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
Why not Fresno State? Michigan is #3 and has the 111 SOS.
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
However, in 2024 Michigan plays Texas and Bama plays at Wisconsin. I think the ACC will continue, with its enabling of ND to stay independent, at 8. I think that the SEC will move to 9 conference games.
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
I get it. I'm usually hungover. 😒
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College Football - 2nd Playoff Ranking - Eye Test or What Have Done on the Field?
The Grapevine Gurus are close to bumping ESPN's ratings and coming with its 2nd of 5 rankings. What will prevail? Strength of Record (SOR,) Strength of Schedule (SOS), or, the Eye of the Beholder Test? Also shown below is a team's remaining SOS (RSOS.) Before the rankings are released and through the Week 10 games, here are the ESPN SOR, SOS, and remaining to-be-played games SOS. OREGON is in the top 10 SOR. SOR Top 10 Rankings. 1. Ohio State - SOS - 20 - RSOS - 7 2. Washington - SOS - 41 - RSOS - 10 3. FSU - SOS - 58 - RSOS - 44 4. Alabama - SOS - 8 - RSOS - 15 5. Texas - SOS - 10 - RSOS - 34 6. Ole Miss - SOS -13 - RSOS - 24 7. Georgia - SOS - 90 - RSOS - 3 8. Michigan - SOS - 111 - RSOS - 1 9. Penn State - SOS - 37 - RSOS - 20 10. OREGON - SOS - 63 - RSOS - 32. The above ROS rankings do not take into consideration conference championship games. It likely will not happen but if stats matter, UW should jump FSU tonight. OREGON needs to win out and for UW to finish undefeated. A 1-loss conference champion Bama, Texas, and UGA, if it finishes 12-1, and a 13-0 B1G champion, along with an IMO over ranked FSU, could give the 12-1 Pac-12 champ Ducks a playoff weenie. Beat SC!
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Oregon Ducks Future Schedules - Does Rob Mullens Understand Puddles is B1G?
There is no way Oregon should stiff Texas Tech in 2024 and not give the Red Raiders a return game. And 8 home games in 2024 is fantastic. I am only going to look at the 2024/25 schedules when asking Rob what he is doing now that OREGON is B1G time come 2024. A member of The Power 2 and a member that plays nine conference games. 2025 - Away - Boise State, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Washington. NW and Rutgers are not top-drawer B1G programs but these games require a trip to Chicago and a trip to New Jersey. Home - Indiana, Minnesota, Montana State, USC, Wisconsin, and P5 Oklahoma State. Playing at Boise State? Does Ohio State play at Toledo, Akron, or Miami of Ohio? Does Michigan play at Eastern, Central, or Western Michigan? Of Course Not! Tripping to Boise, Idaho to play in a Bandbox stadium makes no sense for a B1G league team. And with this schedule, does Oregon, even though it is a home game, need a game vs. B12 Oklahoma State that is now odds on to play in the 2023 B12 Championship game? In the 12-team playoff era, finishing in the top 4 of the B1G means punching a playoff ticket. IMO, there is no reason to add a P5 opponent to an already strong strength of schedule. 2026 - Away - Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, USC, and Oklahoma State. Playing Ohio State and USC on the road is not enough. Why a trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma? Is there a single player from Oklahoma on Oregon's roster or an Oklahoma high school player targeted as a recruit? Home - Boise State, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Portland State, UCLA, and Washington. If the road schedule is not tough enough, add on playing Michigan, Nebraska (Nebraska will improve under Coach Ruhle,) UCLA, and Washington at home. Another consideration when it comes to scheduling. Even games against lesser opponents, both in and out of conference, will be given complete pre and post-game coverage on the Big 10 Network (BTN.) A network with close to 70M subscribers. Should a lesser game be shown on BTN, it will not go under the radar like games covered by and shown on Larry's Lost Network. IMO, drop the game at Boise (and a future scheduled game at Utah State!) and the home-and-home series scheduled against Oklahoma State and Baylor. Oregon does not need another Power 4 game on its slate. Why put money in the pockets of the B12? If you want to replace Oklahoma State and Baylor with P4 opponents, then play Stanford and/or Cal. I'd rather buy home games versus San Diego State, Fresno State, and San Jose State than play a P4 opponent on top of nine conference games. These games at Autzen will draw as many or close to as many viewers as games versus the B12. And home games at Autzen not only benefit the Ducks but the entire Eugene/Springfield community. If Rob has to open the wallet to cancel road games against G5 opponents and P4 Oklahoma State and Baylor, please do so. BEAT SC!
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Oregon is Putting on a Master Class in Offensive Game Prep
What UW did. But UW scored too fast on the ground.🤣