Jon Joseph

The team with the most successful 4th down conversions since 2021, is Georgia. How often do you see Georgia blitz? Not often. Jim Knowles at Ohio State reined in his blitzing at Ohio State and the Buckeyes D has measurably improved in 2023. Oregon without a boatload of blitzing is getting a lot of pressure on the QB. Cam Ward was sacked 6 times last week. Blitzing a guy like Ward would have opened up his opportunities to run the ball. I have no beef at all with DL's philosophy on D. On the road, on O, I would like to see him take the points.

YES! Considering the experience of the new OL, most definitely. A great job. 4 sacks given up to date.

Thank you, Darren. I always enjoy your takes. BTW, Riley is 0-3 in playoff games. Little Game Lincoln? There is no way Caleb is the #1 pick if he quits on his team. His agent who has a stake in the game knows this and will advise Caleb, if it even crosses Caleb's mind, not to quit. The rookie money for a 1st round draft pick is significantly higher than it is for players taken later in the 1st round. And next season, Caleb will not be cozying up to Sherriff Boz in Fansville. (1st DJU and now Caleb. College QBs, stay away from Fansville.) IMO, I think the guy is a competitor and he will not quit. With any kind of defense, he should have scored the winning TD last Saturday just as he did against Arizona. Yes, he was petulant post-game and exhibited no class in the loss but he battled until the final possession. Addison to the NFL has hurt the Trojans wide receiver corps. Singer who was lights out at Arizona in 2022 has not come close to replacing Addison and Mario Williams's game has also fallen off. The Trojans OL which was supposed to be a strength, has dropped off. As has SC's run game without Travis Dye, who was also a weapon as a receiver. On paper, SC added studs on D but they still are coached by the Grinch Who Stole Defense. Which is on Riley. The late game roughing the passer call against "portal stud" Bear Alexander was a game changer. Bear knew it. He was crying on the Troy sideline. Nevertheless, a wounded SC will be a dangerous opponent. And IMO, Caleb will be on the field in Autzen. I'll laugh when I can laugh last.

On All Hallows Eve, the CFB rankings will turn away from the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, and all other polls, with the first release of the College Football Playoff Committee Top 25. (For these takes, all rankings shown are according to the Week 9 AP Poll.) ............................................................................................................................................................................... Based On the Remaining Schedules, Which Pac-12 Team has the Easiest Path to the Conference Champ Game? I perhaps, dwell too much on schedules. You have to play the teams on the schedule and there is no central CFB authority with the power to balance the teams' strength of schedule. CFB scheduling is ad hoc. 5 of the Top 10 Week 9 ranked teams have yet to defeat a currently ranked Top 25 team in 2023. In the preseason I complained about the send-off scheduling gift the Pac-12 was handing to UCLA. In 2023, UCLA is the beneficiary, yet again, of the California scheduling agreement, Like USC in 2022, UCLA in 2023 does not play Oregon and Washington. To date, 23.UCLA is 5-2 overall, and 2-2 in the conference. The Bruins's two losses have come against 11. Oregon State, and 13. Utah with both games played away from the Rose Bowl. The Strength of Record to date for Pac-12 champion contenders - 4. Washington, 10. Utah, 16. Oregon, 20. Oregon State, 28. USC, and 39. UCLA. Oregon, USC, and Washington have 3 games remaining against ranked conference opponents. Oregon State has 2 games remaining against ranked conference opponents. UCLA has 1 game left, versus USC in the Coliseum. I will not be surprised if a 2-loss UCLA slips into the title game in Las Vegas. Scheduling matters. ............................................................................................................................................................................. To date, Oregon has the best-balanced attack in the conference. 553 Yards Per Game. 326 Passing. 227 Rushing. #1 in the nation at 6.8 yards per run. But how do the contenders stack up on defense? Below are the current 2023 national Stop Rate Rankings, including the percentage of a team's Stop Rate success. (Stop Rate measures possessions on defense where the opposing team is forced to punt, turns the ball over, or, turns the ball over on downs.) Also shown is the number of wins vs. Week 9 Top 25 opponents. 4. UCLA - 80% - Zero 9. Utah - 76.5% - One - At 24. USC 24. Washington - 71.8% - One - Versus 8. Oregon (RATS! Or, should I say FLEAS!) 40. Oregon - 68.3% - Zero 52. Oregon State - 65.6% - Two - versus 13. Utah, and 23. UCLA 68. USC - 62% - Zero These rankings are not adjusted for the opponents' strength on offense. Yes, Oregon State has 2 Top 25 wins but OSU played a crummy out-of-conference schedule and was exposed on the road at Washington State. .............................................................................................................................................................................. Week 9 Top 25 teams on upset alert. Ranked on Ranked. 8. 6-1 Oregon -6.5 At 6-1. Utah. I believe the Ducks will prevail in SLC and end the regular season 0-6 slide versus Top 25 ranked teams on the road or at a neutral site. But the game will be a rock fight. 18. 6-1 Louisville -4.5 Vs. 20. 5-2 Duke. Duke QB Riley Leonard is day-to-day. If he plays I think Louisville could be in trouble. Other Top 25 ranked teams at risk. 11. 6-1 Oregon State -3.5 At 4-3 Arizona - If Arizona is not the best 3-loss team in the country it has to be close. Redshirt Freshman, QB Noah Fafita, has been outstanding in place of the injured starter de Laura. And this season's Wildcat team has stepped it up on defense. I am happy that Puddles will be flying to Tempe and not Tucson. 1. 7-0 Georgia -14.5 Vs. 5-2 Florida. 5-2 Tennessee lost to UF and is ranked with the same record. Why? I will not bow down to Washington, ever, but I will bow down to UGA TE Brock Bowers who is likely out for the remainder of the regular season. How will UGA fare without BB going against an improved UF QB, Grahm Mertz, who is near the top in completion percentage? 6. 7-0 Oklahoma -9.5 At 5-2 Kansas - The Sooners would sooner forget last Saturday's close win vs. UCF in Norman. Kansas has a bad defense but puts up a lot of points at home. Will Oklahoma's shaky play on defense vs. UCF continue in Lawrence? 7. 6-1 Texas -18.5 Vs. 5-2 BYU. Texas was the other of the B12 Golddust twins to have a close shave last week at Houston. Coach Sark's alma mater comes to Austin playing the best of the B12 newbies. Texas QB, Quinn Ewers is out with a shoulder injury. The Texas run game should be enough to prevail over BYU but this could be interesting. 3. 7-0 Ohio State -14.5 At 5-2 Wisconsin. The Badgers, down 18-0, scored a terrific comeback win last Saturday at Illinois. The Ohio State D and WR Marvin Harrison won a rock fight against Penn State. Will the Buckeyes suffer a letdown on the road? With Iowa hosed by the refs in its loss to Minnesota last week, Wisconsin is now in 1st place in an abysmal B1G W. I think Bucky will Jump Around before Ohio State pulls this game out late. ................................................................................................................................................................................ Utah has won 18 games in a row in SLC. The last time Oregon won in SLC was in 2016, 30-28 behind Justin Herbert's 4 2nd-half TD passes. My cardiologist is on-call for this game. Win, and Oregon could be the Playoff Committee's top-ranked 1-loss team. But we know the Committee loves 1-loss Bama, bye this week before playing LSU next Saturday, and the Texas brand matters. GO DUCKS!

8 late-season potential "Spoilers" - Ducks play 3 of the 8 including Utah. Top 8 Teams Most Likely to Cause Chaos in Last Half of the College Football Season BLEACHERREPORT.COM Top 8 Teams Most Likely to Cause Chaos in Last Half of the College Football Season

The Inside College Football's Sportsline computer simulation, calls it 27 - 25 Ducks. GULP! Please pass the Mylanta. Just Win Puddles! 3 of the 4 Inside experts pick Oregon. OREGON has to end this streak: 6 straight losses at neutral sites and on the road vs. Top 25 opponents. Should Danno invite Road Warrior, Mel Gibson, to watch the game on the Ducks sideline?

Stevan A., between Charles' GIFs and comments and your great one-liners, I need a forklift to pick me up off the floor. You must have taken the 'Court Room Comedy' course in law school. The course in the syllabus right behind, 'Collect the Money Up Front.' Keep 'em comin'!😍😍😍

Good comments above on Connerly and Cornelius, but both were going against terrific DEs. Trice is an NFL guy for certain. Trice and WSU's Ron Stone, Jr. are both finalists for the Nagurski Award. Cornelius to date has allowed only 2 QB hurries. And has been an impressive addition to the OL. One of ESPN's 50 most impactful new players. I felt that the holding call on Cornelius that brought back the Franklin TD was borderline. Especially compared to the OL muggings in the Ohio State - Penn State game that went uncalled. Without these 2 guys, the Ducks would not be leading the nation in run yards per play, 6.8.

Thanks, Alex. Heisman - An even better chance for Bo to move up with College GameDay in town. EastBay, great call on Barton. The loss of stud LB Landon Barton, 46 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a fumble recovery, may be the injury that breaks the Utes back. In 2022, Barton was the Pac-12 Frosh player of the year on D and a consensus Frosh All-America. A large presence on D at 6'4" and 242 pounds. Barton will be replaced by Stanford transfer Levani Damuni who has played in 5 games this season. With Oregon averaging 6.8 yards a rush, #1 in the nation, I expect that Utah will miss Barton. And having a guy, Jestin Jacobs, with measurables size-wise to Barton, on the field at LB for Oregon will help against Utah's run game. Last week in his first game in a long time, Jacobs had 6 tackles including a sack (his 1st ever) and a TFL. Should be a terrific heavyweight fight. Oregon comes in as the favorite, -6.5.

Great take. Cal is 86 in D rankings. USC is 110. No wonder Wilcox's seat is hot and Lincoln has missed the last 2 SC practices with some kind of illness.

I refuse to be the 13th commentator. (I get extra superstitious near All Hallowed Eve. ) GO DUCKS!

More bad news on the injury front for Utah, but favorable on paper, for the Ducks. True Sophomore, LB Lander Barton, 6'4" and 242 pounds (size like Oregon's Jestin Jacobs, who played last Saturday and had 6 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 TFL) is out for the season. Barton chose Utah over Texas and last season was the Pac-12 defensive Freshman player of the year and was named to the Freshman All-American team. Before the injury, Barton, who did not play at Baylor, had 46 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a fumble recovery. He will be replaced by Stanford transfer, Lavani Damuni. who has played in 5 games in 2023. Tough break for the Utes with Oregon coming to SLC leading the nation at 6.8 yards on rushing attempts. ........................................................................................................................................................... Some stats on going for it on 4th down in 2023. In FBS, teams have gone for it on 4th down 24.5% of the time. The conversion rate is 51.1%, the lowest since 2015, 50.5%. But teams that convert score a TD or FG on 70.7% of possessions with 4.4 points, compared to 34.8% and 2.1 points on other drives. Going into UW, Oregon was 8-10 on 4th down attempts for the season. 0-3 at UW and in last season's loss to Oregon State, Oregon went 0-5. Better take the opponent into account and not just analytics. Since 2021, Georgia leads the FBS in 4th down conversion rate at 73.5%. Indeed, the apple does not fall far from the tree. ............................................................................................................................................................. Weather on Saturday in SLC: 46 degrees/ partly cloudy.

Jen, great hire with DeBoer. But she also made the Jimmy Lake mistake by the lake. I understand that Jimmy is now working for the SAT Board of Directors.

Thanks, Charles. Spot On post. This will also be a playoff elimination game. One of the two teams will be a 2L playoff done after this game. The team that wins this game will get a big Halloween PO Committee rankings boost. Utah has 1 top-25 win to date and the Ducks zero. This should be a 4 Q slugfest. Our kicker situation has me feeling nervous. The line has moved up to Oregon -6.5 and up to -7 on a few books. ESPN FPI gives the Ducks a 68.7% chance to win the game. Oregon won 13,740 out of 20,000 FPI simulated games. But, as we all know, games are played by young athletes and not computers, and Rice-Eccoles Stadium is a very difficult place for a visiting team to win. GO DUCKS!

Riley, Grinch, and Caleb should all be doing ads for Charmin like Prime and Saint Nick do for Aflack. Quack! Riley was gifted an already sound program at Oklahoma courtesy of Bob Stoops. He produced quality QBs but the D at OK steadily declined under his watch. The nadir? Playoff semifinal in 2019 vs LSU. LSU was up 49-14 at halftime and won 63-28. Last week Arkansas, after a 13-7 loss to MS. St. fired OC Dan Enos. Why is Riley waiting to pull the trigger on The Grinch Who Stole Defense? It's not like the situation at Iowa where Ferentz refuses to fire his son. In the second half vs. Minnesota last week, Iowa averaged .5 yards a play. Oregon - At 13. Utah, vs. 24. USC, and 11. Oregon State. And the B1G will supposedly be a tougher row to hoe than the Pac-12?

The Fansville curse. Ironic that Williams appears in a Fansville advertisement in which a fan worries about Caleb being cursed. Fansville jinxed DJU and now Williams. But Williams is getting a lot more jinx help from his head coach than from The Boz. Sit out? This would doom any shot at being the 1st round pick.

Great take. Yet Pete Carroll embraced the Hollywood culture and built one heck of a program. Riley, whatever he does in regard to the glitterati or not, inherited a program from Bob Stoops and has never built his own program. Keeping Grinch? At Wazzu in a bad conference, Grinch did well. He was suspect, along with co-DC Schiano, at Ohio State. Did fine in the B12 at OK with a huge roster advantage. Stepped up into the PO, and Grinch was lost. Any HC with a bit of objectivity would have let Grinch go after last season. I think, DUH, Riley is one heck of an OC but is not going to make it with his philosophy and, he isn't lighting it up when it comes to recruiting. His portal pickings will not make up for mediocre recruiting and a culture that does not teach toughness. OREGON, OR ST, UW, AZ, WSU, and Utah of course, all have better HCs. None of whom are making $10M a year. One disappointment I have with future B1G schedules is that OREGON does not play SC every season.

Yet, roster strength in the NFL, even for the worst teams, is all Blue Chip after sorting out players after playing at least 3 seasons of college ball. In the penultimate regular season game 16, no NFL team plays a Canadian League or an Arena League team. At the very least, all conferences should play the same number of conference games. Like the NFL, this will not assure equal schedules but will assure that lightweights are not being body bag sacrificed late in the season. Alabama vs. Vandy is tougher than Bama vs. UL-Monroe late in the season. Just like Oregon tripping to ASU instead of playing San Jose State at home.

A bit of a repeat post but what a difference a year (decade?) makes when it comes to the conference with the toughest scheduling gauntlet. Playing 9 conference games matters. No Playoff champ to date, played 9 conference games. (In year 1 of the Playoff, Ohio State played 8.) This is a fair fight, right? With 8 conference games, note some of the [dreck] FSU, Bama, and Ole Miss have coming up. 2, Two, Dos, SEC teams in 2023 play 10 games vs. the P5. The rest, 9. Shameful. PAC-12 - 5. Washington - At 24. USC/ 13. Utah/ At 11. Oregon Stae 8. OREGON - At 13. Utah/ 24. USC/ 11. Oregon State 11. Oregon State - 5. Washington/ At 8. Oregon 13. Utah - 8. OREGON/ At 5. Washington 24. USC - 5. Washington/ At 8. OREGON/ 23. UCLA ACC - 4. Florida State - None. [North Alabama] B 12 - 6. Oklahoma and 7. Texas - None. B1G - 2. Michigan - At 10. Penn State/ 3. Ohio State 3. Ohio State - At 2. Michigan 10. Penn State - 2. Michigan SEC - 1. Georgia - 20. Mizzou/ 12. Ole Miss/ At 21. Tennessee 9. Alabama - 15. LSU/ [Chattanoga] 12. Ole Miss - At 1. Georgia/ 21. Tennessee/ [LA Monroe] Is there another sport anywhere with more disparate schedules? Schedules, unlike the CBB Committee, are ignored by the CFB Committee.

Kirkland, What was the 2nd thing? You say 'Rashada.' I say, 'I can't remember Momma.'

Happy Halloween! Almost. The 1st Playoff Committee (CT) rankings will be released on All Hollows Eve. It would be scary based on precedent but it sure would be a treat and not a trick to see the CT pay attention to the quality of teams that have been played and not simply wins and losses. OREGON is currently ranked 8. in the AP but 16. based on Strength of Record (SOR.) SOR is a measure of how teams have performed against their opponents, and opponent quality, to date. I have added Strength of Schedule (SOS) to date/ future SOS, and the AP Week 9 Top-25 teams, if any, defeated by the top-ranked SOR teams. Utah makes the Top 10 SOR ranking. Other future OREGON opponent SOR to date are also shown below. 1. Ohio State - 20/10 - 10. Penn State - 14. Notre Dame. Will a D and not an O-oriented tOSU carry on? 2. FSU - 29/54 - 15. LSU - 20. Duke - Watch out for Miami. Great OT win over Clemson behind 2nd string QB. 3. Oklahoma - 47/38 - 7. Texas - Tested at home by UCF. Kansas on-the-road Saturday could be interesting. 4. Washington - 72/17 - 8. Oregon - 3rd most difficult remaining SOS. A nap (after close to an ASU nightmare) on The Farm and then ...? 5. Alabama - 7/32 - 12. Ole Miss - 21. Tennessee. Like tOSU, Saint Nick is doing it with D. 6. Texas - 6/28 - 9. Alabama. The best win to date for any 1L team. But the QB is dinged up. 7. Ole Miss - 9/31 - 15. LSU - 22. Tulane - Tied for the lead in the SEC W. Have the tie-breaker vs. LSU but not Bama. 8. Georgia - 109/7 - None - The toughest remaining schedule on this list was not expected preseason. 9. Michigan - 110/2 - None - Michigan finally will play a few opponents with a heartbeat. 10. Utah - 41/21 - 24. USC - I agree with Charles. In SLC, the toughest Ducks game left on the schedule. But OREGON also has to play AP 11 and 24! WOW! .................................................................................................................................................................... 16. OREGON - 74/39 - None - A Win in SLC will help come Halloween. (DUH! Pass me the Reese's Pieces.) Future Opponent SOR. In order of appearance on the schedule. 10. Utah - See above. 67. Cal - 31/26 - None 28. USC - 58/13 - None 118. ASU - 53/33 - None 19. Oregon State - 93/15 - 13. Utah - 23. UCLA. Beavers are hurt by a bad out-of-conference schedule. Based on Top-25 wins, IL Oregon State should be ahead of Penn State and arguably, ahead of OREGON (Gulp.) In a season of parity, it should be a great finish; especially, in a brutal Pac-12. GO DUCKS!

College Gameday in town (I'll have to watch even with McAfee jumping around like a hormonally goosed teenager. McAfee, due to 49% of folks watching his antics and not being happy with the same, 20% neutral, may not be back on CGD next season. Make it so!) Oregon is 0-1 in front of CGD this season. Will Mel Brooks (disguised as Lee Corso) once again diss Puddles? Bryson Barnes is now 5-0 when he starts at QB. 235 pass yards in LA. 57 rush yards with a late 26-yard gain on the ground setting up the winning FG. And he exemplified what the Utah program is about, overcoming a late-in-the-game pick-6 to lead Utah to victory. Safety Sione Vaki, played both ways, starting also at RB, due to several injuries, the week before the SC game. Against SC, Vaki put up 217 total yards. 58 rushing and 149 yards receiving, catching all 5 passes thrown to him. Hopefully, the two injured Ducks CBs will return for this game and the Ducks pass D will improve after giving up 438 yards to Cam Ward. (But hats off to Williams - 14 tackles.) Credit where it is due, the Ducks D only gave up 57 rush yards to WSU and limited Ward's ability to run the ball. FPI gives the Ducks an over 60% chance to win the game. Oregon opened at -3.5 and has been bet up to -5.5. A very generous spread IMO. Since 1933, Oregon is 9-7 in SLC with the last win coming in 2018, 30-28 with Justin Herbert throwing 4 2nd-half TD passes. [How about this stat. Bo Nix set the all-time CFB record last Saturday with his 54th CFB start at QB. Bo's first start came against OREGON (sigh), quarterbacked by Justin Herbert. On Sunday last, Justin Herbert made his 55th NFL start.] OREGON's run game last Saturday was outstanding. I have no idea why Stein opened the 3rd Q with pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, punt. Utah will not be out finessed. The Utes D gave up 401 yards to SC in LA which is not bad at all. Smash mouth these guys and keep on smash-mouthing mixed in with a few (thank you, Charles) Bird Bombs. The OREGON OL has exceeded expectations this season. Take advantage. And it is now the season stretch run. If it's there, do not hesitate to run Bo. GO DUCKS!

A bit more on ASU. In its last 3 games, ASU has held opponents to 4.5 yards per play (YPP) and overachieved SP+ D projections by 13.2 points a game. UW averaged 5.2 YPP after giving up 6.8 YPP to OREGON, which was its lowest total of the season before the ASU game. Against WSU, the OREGON D surrendered 7 YPP. At Stanford should not be a problem for UW. But then it's at USC, Utah, at Oregon State, and the Apple Cup vs. a fired-up WSU. As many of us noted in the preseason, running any schedule with 1 L with 9 conference games this season will be one heck of a feat.

OregonDucks - Great point in Dilly having perhaps, no confidence in his kicker, who did have an FG blocked earlier in the game. But from the 12-yard line, you have to think that the kicker had a better shot of kicking the ball than going for it on 4th and 3. And your D has been playing tremendous football it's late in the game. Worst case, you turn the ball over to UW on its own 12. In my old-school opinion, kick the darn FG!

Bryson Barnes is 5-0 in games he has started at QB for the Utes. Utah Football: 3 Takeaways from Thrilling Victory over USC SATURDAYBLITZ.COM The Utah Utes emerge victorious after a walk-off field goal at the Colosseum. A look at how this result affects the Pac-12 standings and CFP Outlook. The m...