Jon Joseph

If you can't make hay, make excuses. The Oregon/UW series has been close over the last decade-plus, right? UW was gifted a win in Autzen last season as the result of a rookie coaching mistake. However, after the season UW had in 2022 finishing with a victory over Texas, I am baffled why DeBoer, who has a ridiculous HC win percentage, cannot recruit at even a mediocre, to date, level in P5 football. I hate it but the Pac-10 needs for Oregon/UW to be a rivalry. These two on paper will play the most important Pac-10 game season after season. If UW is not competitive OOC and in the 'Northwest Series,' we won't see a large number of folks tuning in nationally for the games. Texas? Yes, UW defeated UT in the Alamo Bowl. UT played without its top 2 RBs and its WRs played with hands of Teflon. A+M has the 4th highest-ranked Blue Chip Roster (BCR) in CFB. No school without a BCR won a BCS title or has won a CFB playoff title to date. TCU was last seen giving up 60+ points to Georgia. RECRUITING MATTERS! And with UW being an 'elite' at least in the mind of UW folk, academic institution, I don't see recruiting shortfalls being made up from the portal. Penix transferred in because he had a relationship with DeBoer who was Penix's OC when Penix had his best season at Indiana. It's very early in 2024 recruiting. The Pac-10 school doing the 2nd best in 2024 recruiting to date is STANFORD! What possible excuse can UW have for not out-recruiting the Cardinal?

Sanders is having blood clot surgery and is not expected to have any body parts removed. He has a form of blood cancer that produces too many red blood cells. Not anywhere as life-threatening as leukemia if treated properly. One part of the treatment requires rest and staying away from stressful situations. Not ideal for a college football coach.

I have seen nothing to verify this but I have seen a number of reports that say the new B1G media deal is now down to $60M a school per annum. This with a $20M to $30M bump from the addition of the LA schools and 1 football playoff title, no CBB titles since 2000, and no baseball, golf, track and field, etc., championships may mean that we are down to a Power 1. The B1G has it all over the SEC in terms of market size but it is the SEC pulling down the big money. Looking at the on-field results the B1G is big in name only. 3 football playoff teams to date compared to the 12-team Pac with 2 and an annual flameout by teams in the CBB tournament.

The Pac-12 North like Elvis has left the building. I guess Oregon Sports didn't get the memo?

We need a big scoop to pick up all of this Dawg poop.

I question $100M in today's world of cord-cutting and streaming coming on. ESPN was not willing to pay more, even though it means more, for the SEC to move to 9 conference games with the arrival of Oklahoma and Texas. The halcyon days of linear TV are coming to a close. Fewer folks watching linear TV means a smaller market for media rights sales to advertisers. The reality is that without the LA schools and the addition of CBS and NBC/Peacock into the B1G broadcast mix the B1G deal would be closer to $45 to $50M per school per annum. Fox and ESPN do not have the money to meet the media deals contractual demands. The money comes from the sale of in-game advertising time. If not sold at a premium, Fox and Disney/ESPN do not make money. All is not well in the land of Mickey Mouse. The SEC best be prepared for a number of games, Vandy vs Mizzou, and South Carolina vs Kentucky, to be available on ESPN+ only. Ditto the B12. And with streaming I expect many games will be broadcast in-studio and not on site. As to the B1G, we know that a number of games will be streamed on Peacock with its 20M customer base. This is where the Pac-10 with a deal with Apple/Amazon could close the financial gap with the Power 2. I expect that streaming companies and pay-for-view will separate the college sports wheat from the chaff. Teams that draw more eyeballs and pay-for-play payments will receive more money. The days of conference equal share revenue splits are coming to a close.

I knew it had hit $65M. Now at $60M?

I ordinarily do not allow what passes for journalism these days to get under my skin. But this guy referring to the Pac-10 as 'remnants of the Pac-12' frankly ticks me off. Oregon, Utah, and UW are remnants? Ohio State just paid one of the remnants $500,000.00 to buy its way out of a potential loss in Seattle. I expect UW will win at Michigan State this season but with the game being broadcast on Peacock, with its 20 million subscribers who exactly will be watching this game in E. Lansing? Two of these remnants made the college football playoff. Three of the mighty B1G have made the playoff field. Michigan, 0-2, Michigan State, doors blown off by Alabama and Ohio State, one title and otherwise mixed results including a 30+ shutout loss at the hands of Clemson. Last time one of the remnants played in Columbus, Oregon flew home with a victory. Rutgers, Maryland, today's Nebraska, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa (the last trip to the Rose Bowl was a blowout loss to a lower-ranked Stanford team,) Wisconsin, last seen losing to another remnant, Washington State, Illinois, and even Michigan State are terrific football programs? At the close of the 2022 season four remnants, the three Pac-10 schools noted above and Oregon State were ranked by the playoff committee. Three B1G teams were ranked, playoff losers Ohio State and Michigan, and Penn State. Coming to the B1G USC was also ranked and lost to G5 Tulane while UCLA gave up a late lead in its bowl game and lost to Pitt. Let's take a deeper dive into the new B1G media deal that took nine months to come together with each B1G team to receive $70M, Oops!, that's $65M a year. Nine months with Fox owning 61% of the B1G Network. $65M with Fox and a lying B1G commissioner swooping in the steal the LA schools. Ask yourself what the value of the B1G deal would be without the LA schools and without bringing SEC-disenfranchised CBS and NBC/Peacock into the mix. Without the LA schools, the B1G deal comes in at approximately $35M to $45M for each member school per annum. This was the bottom line reason for Fox to purloin the LA schools. The other was the desire of Fox to elbow ESPN out of the B1G. Payback for ESPN and the SEC swiping Oklahoma and Texas. To get NBC on board the lying B1G commissioner, Kevin Warren, promised NBC the broadcast rights to the B1G football championship game. Oops! Kevin had no right to do so. And among other B1G members, the LA schools were not informed that a number of their home games will be streamed on Peacock. Not a lot better than being shown on Larry's Loser Network. The UW at Michigan State game will also be shown on Peacock and Peacock has moved one Michigan State home game from E. Lansing to Detroit. Under the new B1G scheduling agreement, Penn State has no permanent opponents. One of UCLA's permanent opponents is a Michigan team that UCLA has rarely defeated over the decades. The closest B1G school travel-wise to the LA schools in Nebraska. Nebraska is not a permanent opponent for either of the LA schools. The scheduling juice UCLA and USC had in the Pac-12, see the Cali football scheduling agreement, has been poured out of the B1G glass. USC is no longer the B1G kid on the block. UCLA is going B1G only because of USC and the basketball brand, It's one thing for a football team to have to travel two+ time zones to play conference away games and quite another for a basketball team, let alone the non-revenue sports to do so. And instead of traveling to Las Vegas for the conference football championship game and for the conference basketball tournament, UCLA and USC fans will have to travel to Indianapolis and Chicago. To date, I am not a fan of George Kliavkoff. But the man is negotiating a new media deal with among other broadcast entities, a tech company that has never streamed college sporting events. Doing so after losing his biggest market and being asleep at the switch when the B12 jumped ahead in the media negotiations line. Despite all of the sound and fury, I am not ready to shovel dirt on the remnants. Do a deal with Apple or Amazon and move up to the head of the streaming line and who knows, the remnants could end up with a better deal in the long run. Hickey: The 1 scheduling element the SEC got right — and the B1G should copy SATURDAYTRADITION.COM The SEC did a good job achieving balance with its 2024 schedule -- and it's a model the Big Ten can easily adopt in the future. Meanwhile how about planting a B1G hickey on Mr. Hickey, the author of this brilliant piece?

LOL! One thing for certain I won't he here, at least in this iteration to find out how much of a prophet am I.

HECK YES! But ND does play on Sundays and is, of course, a much bigger brand. $ overwhelms any and all obstacles.

OK, it's far too early. How about allowing the season to play out? But these revised bowl projections from 247 Sports do offer at least one interesting change, instead of playing Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl the Ducks are now projected to play Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. THIS would be a great swap and would draw millions more eyeballs than would playing in San Antonio. Other Pac Bowl projections and a couple of others that may be of interest to Ducks fans. LA Bowl - Arizona vs SDSU - Unless a MW team is selected for one of the NY6 bowls this would mean that SDSU won the MW; likely, on its way out the door. [Frisco Bowl - SMU vs Cincinnati] Las Vegas Bowl - UCLA vs Kentucky - This match-up likely means a 4th/5th place Pac finish for the Bruins. I don't see UCLA that has to play at Oregon State beating out the Beavers for this or a better bowl for Oregon State. I would flip Oregon State in this or the Holiday Bowl and have UCLA in the Sun Bowl. Independence Bowl - Washington State vs BYU - one of the few bowl projections I have seen that has Wazzu bowling. Holiday Bowl - Utah vs NC State - This time the Wolfpack hopes to travel west and actually play a football game. No litigation required. Alamo Bowl - Washington versus Oklahoma - UW remembers the Alamo; it defeated Texas in this bowl last season. This bowl spot for UW would mean no conference champ game appearance. Too bad, so sad. Sun Bowl - Oregon State vs UNC - Both of these teams heading into 2023 are looking for better than a late lunch with Tony the Tiger. [Pop-Tarts (Really?) Bowl - Texas Tech vs Miami - I do not think either team would be happy with finding pop-tarts in their future.] Fiesta Bowl - OREGON vs Notre Dame - Best eyeballs match-up of the projected NY6 Bowls. With USC projected to return to the Cotton Bowl, Oregon will win the conference championship but not qualify for the final, 4 team playoff. Wait 'Till Next Year! In 2024, a Pac title will likely mean a first-round playoff bye for the Ducks. Cotton Bowl - USC vs LSU - If you can't defeat a team from New Orleans why not try your luck against a team from Baton Rogue? If this game is played I have to wonder if Caleb Williams and JT Daniels will suit up. Peach Bowl - Alabama vs Tulane - Saint Nick grabs the G5 end of the stick. Based on this and the above, 247 has LSU winning the SEC W for the second season in a row, and in the last season that will have an SEC W. Playoff - Rose Bowl - 2. Ohio State vs 3. Texas - I'll believe Texas over Alabama, LSU, the Pac-12 champion, and Penn State, only when I see it. 247 has UT winning in Tuscaloosa. #2 seed for Ohio State means that Ohio State wins in South Bend and with Michigan the 4 seed (see below,) also in Ann Arbor. With Georgia's lightweight schedule this season I don't see except for the ever-present SEC bias, a 13-0 Ohio State finishing behind 13-0 Georgia; especially with LSU ticketed for the Cotton Bowl and Michigan making the playoff. Sugar Bowl - 1. Georgia vs 4. Michigan. Not happy with the above? 8 Pac-12 teams bowling would be nice as would SC leaving a NY6 payment behind. But the odds of the above happening like this are infinitesimal.

ACC? I don't see it. I do not believe the conference will hold together until 2030 let alone 2036. 4 teams to the B1G, Duke, Georgia Tech, and UNC, with 4 to the SEC, Clemson, FSU, Louisville, and Miami, end the ACC conference. No exit fee payment required.

Great take, The LA schools would prefer Cal and Stanford to Oregon and UW. Especially UCLA to eliminate the Cali tax. And if it matters and it likely does to many B1G presidents, Cal and Stanford bring sterling academics. It's big business where the rich always get richer usually at someone else's expense. The B12 in the case of the SEC and the Pac-12 in the case of the B1G.

The Red Raiders should already be a member of the Pac-20. TX Tech has great fans but the DFW market is important to broadcast partners.

BYU has, not at the level of Notre Dame, a national TV audience but BYU will never get a Pac invite. In addition to the academic barrier (SIGH) there is the church affiliation barrier. SMU is no longer officially affiliated with the Methodist church and plays ball on Sundays.

Not to pick nits but as a quarter-Irish guy, Rob's last name is Mullens with an 'e.' Erin Go Bragh!

Great thoughts. Ohio State also paid $500K to avoid a possible loss in Seattle. Ohio State travels to UCLA in 2024 and plays USC at home in 2025. But in 2025 it also opens the season with a game versus Texas. Michigan plays Texas in Ann Arbor in 2024 and UCLA is one of Michigan's scheduling partners. As to adding west coast teams. In the next decade will the B1G add more Western teams or go East for ACC teams? Or both? Notre Dame is the B1G prize and if the ACC breaks up ND will have to find somewhere to play football. The B1G will not give Notre Dame a football scheduling agreement that will assure ND's independence. ND will be all B1G or not B1G at all. I do not see ND in the SEC but politics, and money, make strange bedfellows. But as I have noted before, players as employees will alter the entire college sports calculus.

I think SC and UCLA football will be fine with the travel and solid academics could soften the blow when it comes to recruiting non-revenue sports. BYU is not and likely never will be on the table. I think the Cal tax will simply be determined by the Trustees as the Board of Trustees so desires. But the easy Calculation is simply to compare B1G media revenue to Pac-10 revenue. If this was to happen the move by UCLA would make no sense whatsoever which is why it won't happen.

As to Finebaum, spot on. As to UNLV, the Runnin' Rebels should be picked up now. Las Vegas is the defacto conference HQ. CBB and CFB championships are played in LV. Clark County is a growing TV market and LV is in the Pacific time zone, plays football in a close-to-campus NFL stadium, has upgraded CFB practice facilities, and not so long ago won an NCAA CBB title. Academics? Those days should be gone like the student-athlete model is gone. The ACC has 5 AAU members. The B12, 1. The SEC 5 when Texas comes on board. With the addition of a medical school, UNLV's academics have improved. Pro sports 'get' the appeal of LV. Now home of the Stanley Cup winner. The Raiders. And MLB is on the way. The NBA will likely have a team in LV by 20230. As to BYU, TCU, and Houston, will the Pac-10+ have the money to interest these schools in leaving the B12 and paying the exit fee that would come with leaving the conference? TCU is already in the P% and Houston and BYU are now in the P5. BYU, unless it agrees to play on Sunday will not receive an invite. If you want to play west coast defense against the B12 add SDSU, UNLV, and Fresno. Boise's cachet is wearing off, it plays in a small stadium and the media market is tiny. Great thoughts, thanks.

DUCK! Quack.

The ACC moved far too quickly after Maryland left to lock everyone else in and is now saddled with a terrible media deal that is offset somewhat by ACC network income. The deal Larry signed was considered to be fantastic at the time but ran far too long and was eclipsed by all but the ACC deal.

I'm shocked! Say it ain't so Pawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwlllll! Although Paul's take brought a smile to the face of dozens of chicken farmers across the south and the one millionaire who lives in Starkville other than the Football coach and basketball coach. If the Pac-12 holds together which I believe it will any AAC teams or Mountain West teams the Pac-10 add will be at the top of the G5 game when it comes to donors and success. SDSU played for a CBB tourney title last season. As were BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF when added to the B12. The Orlando, Florida media market is larger than the Miami market.

I love it when FishDuck goes fishing! Did you catch and mount the B12 commissioner?

Great thoughts. UCLA is spending a lot of 'dead money' on fired coaches. This will diminish in a few years. But the model at UCLA is shaky. The Bruins, because the arena helps secure bond payments, have to pay to practice in Pawley Pavilion. How big will the Cal tax be for the Bruins move to the B1G? A lot of folks were disappointed that the CA Board of Trustees approved the move and you can bet that the Cal administration will be looking for significant dollars. Pretty easy to determine gross dollar-wise based on what UCLA is paid annually by the B1G and what Cal will gross from the B1G media deal. A one-year-old? You have your hands full my friend. I know, I'm telling Noah about The Flood, right?

Does the 3-finger sign for the W in UW indicate the number of players UW will sign in 2024?