Jon Joseph

Why does anyone or any company need more money? Because they and us and I, most often spend to the ceiling and not the floor. It's not just the money. It's about survival in a world of collapsing conferences. It's about being a survivor as a member of the Power 2 and not an also-ran. Yes, introductory money with a chance to score a full share come 2031 is far better than being a member of a glorified G5 conference. Especially when the introductory money and today's linear broadcast exposure exceed what Oregon can otherwise bank. Oregon moves to the B1G now or later. Move now and do not run the risk that the opportunity will indeed be there later.

The B1G did what it should have done. Wait for a Pac media number to surface instead of bidding against itself. Bad spot? Rather than look at this potential offer as taking a discount, I look at it as paying a premium for a future commodity bet. Being behind Rutgers money-wise stinks. But come 2031, Oregon will have a very good chance as a P2, B1G member of cashing in. The alternative assuming a discounted offer to join the B1G comes to fruition is what? Play in a patchwork conference through 2030 and then take a discounted offer from the B1G? Oregon's future is long-term IMO taking a discount now and betting on itself for where it will be financially and where the B1G will be financially come 2031.

Power 2 offer comes and Puddles is gone. The Playoff format in 2026 will look far different from what is coming in 2024/25. Joining the B1G even at an initial discount is a Duck in the hand.

A B1G offer comes even at a discount and it will be at a discount and Uncle Phil is not going to allow Oregon to pass on being a Power 2 member.

Not official. But the B1G presidents' meeting and subsequently authorizing the commissioner to explore further expansion seems to indicate that B1G expansion is coming. Why else have the meeting and the consequent message to the commissioner? Notre Dame due to contractual obligations is not, unless 8 or more members decide to bolt the ACC, in the mix. The B1G's concern about 'destroying' the Pac after poaching SC and UCLA is disingenuous but I very much doubt that the B1G wants to break up the ACC and risk interference with contract litigation from the ACC and ESPN. Far different for Pac teams to be poached and to leave when the end of the current grant of rights deal expires at the end of the 2023 season. BTW, Jon Wilner suggests that Oregon's 1st-year payout will likely be in the range of $30M with modest escalation before the B1G's new media deal expires in 2031/32. Better than the $20M or so payout under the current agreement. This kind of step-up deal should if USC's whining matters to the B1G presidents, assuage the Trojans. If an offer is coming it will be accepted, probably before the middle of next week. 4 teams on the West Coast will elevate travel concerns and 6 teams even more so. UCLA has to be pushing for Cal to be invited in order to escape the Cal alimony payments. The college expansion Game of Thrones continues at Star Trek-like Warp Speed.

Sounds like we could be headed into an Uncivil War. Buy out FSC games and an annual game would be doable sooner rather than later.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiight? Stinks for OR ST but what is the premise for the lawsuit? The media grant of rights ends in 2023. It's unfortunate that OR ST will be shuttled off to the Mountain West but Oregon does not owe one iota of a fiduciary duty to Oregon State. Being upset at your situation in life compared to others better situated does not ipso facto allow for a remedy at law. I very much doubt that reasonable parties at OR ST will pour money into a useless lawsuit. To my knowledge, the two schools do not have a single board of overseers as is the case with CA public universities and state universities. I tried to research this and the search agent did not lead to a result.

This is just one of many preseason projections. The one that kind of counts, the AP Poll will be released on 8/15 at Noon Eastern time. But FWIW, this ranking has Oregon playing the preseason ranked #8, USC, #9, UW, #11, Utah, #15, Oregon State, and #19, Texas Tech. A tough row to hoe in any conference.

So very sad. Ducks will be fine but Oregon State and Washington State, if Oregon and UW can't or do not want to hold the Pac together in one form or another are headed for the Mountain West. Cal and Stanford are on the B1G cusp; or, on the cut line? It kind of ticks me off that ESPN and Fox have the money to add CU, Arizona, ASU, and Utah at a full share of $31.7M a year but not the money to invest in Pac-12 inventory. It's a bit of a strained analogy but in anti-trust law, this is bordering on predatory pricing. The next domino to fall will be the ACC. I think Clemson, FSU, UNC, and Georgia Tech are candidates for the SEC, and with Yormark's emphasis on basketball, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, and NC State would be, along with UConn, likely candidates to join the B12. 8 ACC teams give exit notices and the conference is done without huge exit fees being in the way. Regardless of cost, Clemson and FSU will find a way out of the ACC. This could leave Notre Dame stuck in a bad spot which would be heart-breaking, right? I do hope the B1G $ in not the B1G amount will be there and sufficient for Oregon to move into a Power 2 conference instead of creating a conference out of patchwork G5 teams. The idea of an easier road into the field in a 12-team playoff is enticing but with the conference shuffle continuing I doubt that the playoff format for 2024/25, 6 top conference champs with the top 4 conference champs receiving a 1st round bye will survive. And barring anti-trust restraints, would a 20-member B1G with UW, Oregon, Cal, and Stanford and 20-member SEC with Clemson, FSU, UNC, and Georgia Tech need more than the 2 Power Conferences to conduct a playoff? In this day and age will the 2 conferences want to share playoff revenue with teams with no chance to advance? Of course, with its unearned gravitas, Notre Dame will be in the mix one way or the other. I can easily envision a scenario where the B1G adds OREGON, UW, UNC, and Notre Dame. UNC brings in viewership right there with Cal and Stanford and UNC is an AAU member school. Among Oregon, UW, Clemson, and FSU, Notre Dame is the brand award winner. I just do not see the B1G adding non-AAU member Clemson or FSU. But this is just realignment ceiling walking by an old guy who finds it difficult enough these days to walk on Terra Firma.

Football is back on the field. YES! Oregon Football: Quotes from Dan Lanning following first fall practice DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Oregon Ducks head coach met with media members following the first fall camp practice of the 2023 season.

I'd add, UNC, FSU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech to the SEC. To the ACC - Notre Dame (as a most-favored-nation full-time football member - more $ for the Irish), UConn, USF, Memphis and Providence, Saint John's, Xavier, and Marquette as members other than for football. It's anyone's guess, no?

Ducks Wire Author - "I'm not saying the Pac-12 is dead but ..." Pac-12 Football: Predicting where all remaining teams could end up DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM The future looks bleak for the Pac-12. Here is where we predict all remaining teams would go if the conference crumbles.

Here's a spot-on reality check for the B1G. Worried about destroying the Pac-12, you already destroyed the Pac-12. Also, a take on the FSU being desperately wanting to get out of Tobacco Road. It ain't over until Fat Media Companies sing. The Big Ten is at the epicenter of college football's shifting landscape WWW.YARDBARKER.COM The Big Ten left the Pac-12 for dead but doesn’t want to be the one to pull the plug on the conference.

Key 2023 storyline for every top 25 college football team WWW.YARDBARKER.COM The 2023 season should be a fascinating one both on and off the field, filled with questions that will be answered and stories ready...

Keep those seat belts buckled up and hang in there. Third-party influence may soon shake foundation of college football impacting conferences, programs - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM How does a new conference financed with a $1 billion investment sound to you, college football fan?

'We don't want to be responsible for taking down the Pac.' Really, after poaching the LA schools and a few refs? How about, our media partners now have a number to negotiate against?

A reasonable B1G invite? Yes, that is what I would like to see happen. And if it is 4 schools and not just Oregon and UW in the mix, this would do much to abate travel; especially, for non-revenue sports. The B12? IMO a non-starter. BTW, when the SEC goes to 20 teams, TCU and OK State are viable candidates for expansion. The B12 deal at $31.7M a year is not, IMO, a long-term viable deal. If you have the faith that I have in the Oregon brand, why the concern about being able to market the brand to a far greater audience without being restricted by limited cable broadcast agreements? We see the same facts but simply happen to be 180 degrees apart on what the impact of the facts will be. And these are simply the 'facts' known to date in a game of musical chairs that is far from over. As to what would be acceptable in a revenue share from the B1G? I defer to the people instrumental in the operation of the Athletic Department but in my FWIW opinion, $40M a year with 6 teams on the west coast would warrant a move to a conference that will be one of two standing at the end of the day.

The Media Mafia at Work. Go back to June of 1984 when the Supreme Court affirmed Oklahoma's District court win against the NCAA. The NCAA's limit on the number of games that could be televised on a given Saturday, usually one game, was found to violate anti-trust law. From this date forward it was every man and conference for itself and the media became far more instrumental in funding college athletics. Jump to the conclusion of the 1999/2000 season when FSU defeated now fellow ACC member VA Tech, 46 to 29 in the first BCS Championship game. The flood gates were of the date of this game now wide open. And the beat goes on with a 4-team playoff that will become a 12-team playoff in 2024 and likely, IMO, to go to 16 teams in 2026. You monetize anything and the monied people will take over.

Charles, great comment but equating Puddles business acumen to that of college presidents could warrant a liable action on behalf of Puddles?

A measured, reasonable take on potential realignment. Who Knew? The author is one of the few speculators at large who should not have the Name Yahoo attached to their work. It will be rather ironic if AZ, ASU, and Utah join the B12 for a max of $11M a year more than the proposed Pac deal would provide, and that such moves would make the addition of Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and UW palatable to B1G presidents. Give these 4 the opportunity to join a far more successful and long-term viable conference. A conference that Oregon is more than capable of competing in. Once 1 of the Power 2 goes to 20 teams, the SEC will follow. This happens and IMO, the playoff come 2026 will go to 16 teams and without the automatic inclusion of conference champions in the field. But you know what? Going to a Power 2, with the SEC presumably picking off ACC teams, will not prevent linear broadcasting from going the way of streaming. As a matter of fact, to make the addition of the 4 identified schools financially viable a streaming company other than Peacock will likely have to be involved unless NBC/Peacock is willing to come with more money for streaming more B1G inventory.

Cart, I demur. The advantage isn't clear? It's certainly clear to the folks at Disney. And the #1 company rumored to be in the mix to buy all of or a significant portion of ESPN stock is Apple. Disney has made it absolutely clear that it wants to jettison ESPN and that if it continues to own ESPN, ESPN sports broadcasts are moving to streaming sooner rather than later. There is no way IMO that the SEC deal with ESPN that commences in 2024 and runs for 10 years will not have a significant number of events streamed. Peacock is streaming 8 B1G games this season. I expect this number will along with Fox and CBS joining the streaming parade, jump to at least 50% of the broadcasts of B1G inventory before the B1G deal ends 7 years from 2024. I hope that Oregon will not be silly enough to enter into any long-term deal, at least not without an early out with the payment of a marginal exit fee if that. Even a 5-year new deal for the Pac will expire before the ACC, B12, B1G, and SEC deals. So long as Oregon is not locked into a long-term deal what's the downside for Oregon? Going to the B12 for an extra $11M a year even if only the new deal floor of $20M is achieved, is not a viable, long-term option. And I continue to hold out hope that the new Pac deal with have a linear agreement to bridge the gap before streaming becomes the rule and not the exception. I believe that with the changes coming in technology and the delivery of technology, the proposed deal with Apple, as we understand it, will give the Pac-Whatever, the opportunity to close the gap on the ACC, sans its network deal and the B12. Only BYU among the 5 schools added to the B12 to date draws close to 1M viewers on average for football games. TCU is just behind Oregon drawing slightly over 2M viewers on average for football How do you think the TCU powers-that-be feel about giving the newbies an equal share of the proceeds? Adding the schools it has added to date does not assure the B12's survival, far from it. I am 76 years old and I have seen this movie before. New tech being dissed by people vested in the old way of doing things. You could be absolutely correct in your concern but I believe streaming will eliminate or come close to eliminating, linear broadcasts by 2023.

The Athletic's, Stewart Mandel, was one of the few national media pundits to attend Pac-12 Media Day. Going back to his Northwestern undergraduate days he has a soft spot for the Pacific Conference and what the Rose Bowl once meant to the B1G and the Pac. His Mailbag today was full of Pac questions, many not surprisingly dealing with the Pac including a critique of Dan Lanning's new contract which Stewart dismissed while noting that the question came from a reader in Seattle. The Athletic site has an inviolate, at least for someone with my rudimentary tech levels, paywall. So forgive the length of this post but I think Stewart's response as to whether a merger of the ACC/Pac and creating a Coast-to-Coast conference would make sense in today's conference realignment game of musical shares. "As streaming services go. Apple+ seems to have a pretty high hit rate. 'Ted Lasso,' 'Severance,' The Morning Show,' and 'Shrinking' (oh, the irony!), all rank among my favorite shows of the past three years. If that's where the Pac-12 lands, it will be in pretty good company. But as of this writing (8/2/23), there was still a decent chance that the (pac-12) logo lands at the bottom of the Pacific." As to the idea of a Coast-to-Coast conference. "Yep, you may be on to something. Although a conference that expands from the Pacific Northwest to South Florida makes no sense geographically, it may be the best option either side has going for it. Note that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips (once a member of the ill-fated Alliance) said at conference media days they've spent considerable time on expansion to see if there is anything that fits. Also, note that there are no value-added expansion candidates in the eastern half of the country. A Memphis or USF would not move the needle. You know who would? Oregon and Washington. These two have to be exploring all possible avenues right now. Like Florida State, Clemson, and Miami, both programs aspire to win national championships but don't have an obvious path to make the money SEC and B1G contenders do. The Big Ten seems less interested in future westward expansion than it did last fall, and joining the B12 would just be further resigning Oregon and Washington to a distant third. Although ESPN is under no obligation to make the ACC richer if it adds more members, the West Coast schools could help boost one particular revenue stream: The ACC Network. Upgrading from nominal out-of-market subscriber fees to considerable in-market fees like the Bay Area (No. 10 in Nielson market size), Seattle (No. 12), and Portland (No. 22) could generate significantly more revenue. Not enough to match the Big Ten/SEC, but enough to close the gap in a meaningful way. I don't think a full merger of 23 (as of this writing) teams is realistic., but logistically the ACC couldn't just add two West Coast teams. I'm guessing the presidents of Duke, Virginia and North Carolina would love the idea of hobnobbing with Cal and Stanford. Maybe Arizona and ASU would be interested, too, if for no other reason than all that ESPN exposure. The logistics would be ridiculous, but we're long past the point of geographic sensibilities in realignment. It's all about moola, and right now everyone is just trying to find any possible path to making more of it." Far from a definitive answer but before the $ and logistics are sorted out how there can be a definitive answer?

I agree with your take David with one caveat. Oregon has to be the LEADER in however the Pac Conference shakes out. This means not settling for the same share, especially if the share is goosed by the # of subscribers and the number of viewers who watch given sporting events, as do 'partners' that invest far less in CFB and CBB and draw far fewer eyeballs. In unison from the Oregon Board of Trustees to the Oregon President and on-down Oregon sports has to be managed like a business and not a lemonade stand managed by clueless academicians who care more about the number of Noble Prize winners on campus, who undergraduates have no contact with, than they do about athletic success and the money that follows such success. Oregon cannot simply rubber-stamp senseless business decisions and non-decisions authored by an unqualified board of directors who oversee a commissioner with no prior college administrative experience. George Kliavkoff is being paid $3,5M a year largely because of his business acumen and experience in doing broadcast agreements for MGM Sports. But of course, GK needed to hire a group of consultants, led by a gentleman by the name of Perlman, to help with media negotiations. My guess is that Mr. Perlman, et al, are not doing this pro bono. So, exactly what is the $3.5M return on investment? In summary, Oregon has to realize that it is The Big Duck in a smaller Pac-Whatever pond, that without Oregon the Beavers are building dams in the Mountain West, and that Oregon will not submit to lesser 'partners' unwilling and/or unable to compete at championship levels in the Moneyball sports.

Understand your POV. Early telephones required shared lines and a switchboard. As the delivery system improved millions more people purchased and installed telephones. Streaming will be made more easy to access and to switch in and out of. ESPN, the leader in college sports broadcasting, and its overseer Disney know that they have to move to streaming as soon as the kinks are worked out. Today's delivery systems are outmoded and bloated with excess administrative costs. I will be shocked if the number of folks who sign on to Apple to watch football, basketball, and non-revenue sports does not exceed the 13M subscribers to the Pac-12 Network. I will also be shocked if Fox does not move post-haste to add a streaming service like NBC's Peacock. I wager that in 5 years, before the end of the new B1G media deal that not less than half of the B1G's football games will be streamed. Again, I more than respect your POV but no one can shovel sand against the tide and expect the tide to stay out.