Jon Joseph

As reported by Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic, Navigate Research has released a new estimate of what each P5 conference will be paying out to their respective conference members through 2029. The new projections take into account: Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC. The B12 adding 4 new members. And the other P5 conferences remaining as currently structured. The SEC moving to 9 conference football games. The B1G continuing to play 9 conference football games. The income from the P5's respective new media deals. Conference Network income where applicable. A 12 team CFB playoff beginning in 2026, with all P5 champs in, a G5 team in and 6 at large spots. Base playoff income is included in the projections as is the anticipated success for each conference once the playoff field expands. Income from NCAA CBB Units and other anticipated conference-wide income including net income from CFB bowl games not involved with the playoff. 2029 projected distributions per team, per conference follow. SEC - $117.8M to 16 teams B1G - $101.1M to 14 teams Pac-12 - $62.8M to 12 teams ACC - $61.5M to 14 teams and a lesser share to Notre Dame. (Accordingly, the ACC is expected to bring in more net revenue than the Pac-12.) B12 - $57.5M to 12 teams. Numbers-wise we have a Power 2 and not Power 5 today. The gap between the B1G/SEC and the other conferences will continue to grow. IMO and as I have noted before, the Pac-12 should at least investigate a merger with the B12 to form the Coast-to-Coast Conference. If such a merger projects-out to bring in more money per member institution, merge ASAP. Such a merger could entice a media member to buy the Pac-12 Network in whole or in part and put the Coast-to-Coast Network up on DirecTV among others, and put the Network solidly in the black. Meanwhile, let's enjoy Our Beloved Ducks sports. The above numbers and the Pac-12 remaining as-is, do not prevent Oregon from winning CFB and CBB titles, as well championships in many other sports. Income disparity did not prevent B12 member Baylor from winning the CBB title last season, and B12 member Kansas is in the Final 4 this year.

Arizona has North Dakota State on its schedule in 2022 - GULP!

The Bash Brothers!

Thanks David. Not a bad idea. Depending on the quality of the FCS opponent. Playing Immaculate Word last spring would not have been a piece of cake. Heck, Stony Brook in the regular season wasn't a piece of cake. I disagree a bit with the premise that The Citadel for instance, is going to drop football if it doesn't get a check from Alabama the penultimate weekend of the regular season. You hear this from SEC fans who want to justify playing a 3rd or even a 4th cupcake team in a given season. As we all know the SEC always puts 'the other fella first,' right? There are hundreds of schools playing D3 and NAIA CFB that never get a nickel from playing a 'big boy' opponent. I don't think the coaching staff would want the pressure, no matter how minimal, of having to win a 'real' game. I also think the staff can learn more by watching tape of Oregon players going against other Oregon players, rather than going against a physically overwhelmed opponent. Lots of guys would likely get the chance to play against an FCS opponent, but 11 on O and 11 D would have to 'officially' start. With the transfer portal in play I think most coaching staffs want the competition for starting positions to go into the fall. With the emphasis Coach Lanning has placed on spring game attendance and the marketing of this year's spring game it will be very interesting to see how many fans show up in Autzen? At UGA, the stadium sells out for the spring game. True for many SEC teams and also for Clemson. The Ducks spring attendance has been pretty darn good; excellent compared to the rest of the conference. Thanks again. Fun idea to ponder.

The NCAA is turning CFB regulation over to the G5/P5 conferences. The NCAA still has CBB regulatory 'juice' because it runs the post season tourney. It took close to 3 seasons for the AZ and LSU coaches, respectively caught on tape by FBI discussing buying players, to be fired. I think many the program thinks it is worth the risk to tamper with other rosters and to flat out cheat. The NCAA enforcement has always been tardy and does not come close to dispensing even justice. Compare what Ole Miss, that was running a pay for play program under Hugh Freeze, received in penalties compared to SC? SC 1 guy receiving improper benefits not to play for SC but to leave early and go pro and was completely hosed over by the NCAA. And academic cheating over 2 decades at UNC was OK because everyone and not just student-athletes were cheating. Cheating has been going on for decades and Dickie V damn well knows it.

And now the Miami O will likely be MIA?

I thing uni I do like, both SC and UCLA wearing home colors when they play the rivalry game.

Call me cynical. Which is OK, I am a stoic/cynic. Please do not try and tell me that $ was not involved.

Amen. The U played the second half vs Kansas in the Elite 8 game yesterday as often did the Ducks football team under Mario. Where did the O in Oregon go under Mario?

Where he threw for close to 4700 yards, 40 TDs, 10 Ints. and won the Walter Peyton Award as the best player in FCS. Ward's Immaculate Word HC is now the OC at WSU. Hats off for Pullman merchants coming together to NIL-convince Ward to play for the Cougars. I think a lot of the 2022 season rides on back-to-back games versus the Cougars? BYU at Autzen followed by a road trip to the Palouse. As to Will Smith and Chris Rock, knock each other's block off for all I care.

So true. But it will make it more difficult to out-recruit the Trojans.

ESPN is broadcasting 1 spring game this season with Herbie and friends doing the broadcast; the USC game. $ and marketing matter. And in both respects Oregon and SC are far in advance of their conference 'brethren.' I have Dish TV so I can get the Pac-12 Network in South Carolina; I'll definitely be watching the spring game. Those on DirecTV , for example, cannot get the Pac-12 Network. Your overall point is a great one. Something has to be done to bring the Pac-12 Network into the big leagues. The Pac-12 powers-that-be already turned down an offer from ESPN to take over operation and distribution of the network. With the decision not to expand into the central time zone including Texas, I have no idea what the plan, if there is a plan, is to make the network financially solvent. Had the conference gone to the Pac-20 I imagine far more carriers would have offered the network and that more than a few folks would have signed up to watch Kansas, Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor and Iowa State play basketball? The spring game set up is yet another example of Oregon using superior marketing techniques while most of its Pac-12 'partners' sit on their hands. Sit on their hands while expecting to receive the same revenue share as the Ducks. I'm blending topics to include Alex' fine article today and Charles' excellent reply to same; the one thing that could truly alter the CFB, CBB and all other Oregon sports landscape prior to 2026, would be some king of reconfiguring of the Pac-12. I hope that Schill and Mullens are looking out for Oregon before looking out for the conference? The Ducks continue to lead while most of the other conference members follow way in the rear. Hats off to Mullens and Lanning for coming up with this great marketing idea.

Enjoyed the article Alex, lots of good points. NIL has impacted recruiting and has influenced decisions to transfer, no doubt. CFB (and CBB) players have far more power today then they have ever had, no doubt. Roster management in CFB today has become more difficult than managing a roster in the NFL. But with coaches being paid multi-millions of dollars to coach CBB and CFB, IMO, it's more than time to finally give the athletes a piece of the pie. As you so noted, when more money was offered how much loyalty did Mel Tucker, Brian Kelly, Lincoln Riley and Mario Cristobal show to their respective employer, and to the young men they had recruited and left behind? I don't like Dye headed to LA for more money but I certainly 'get it.' Notwithstanding what went on with A+M's CFB recruiting in 2022, I don't believe you can 'buy' a CFB football championship. Maybe CBB, but not CFB. For the most part, top players are going to matriculate at the school they believe gives them the best shot at the NFL. Looking back over decades and decades of CFB, I don't believe parity at the championship level has ever existed. The names may change from time to time, but year after year a hand full or so of CFB teams have a true shot at a championship. I don't believe that NIL and the transfer portal is going to pave the way for Rutgers to win a CFB championship. We have a 4 team playoff field through the 2025 season. IMO, missing out on a recruit or two and having a few guys transfer in or out will not materially affect the Ducks chances to win the Pac-12 and make the CFB Final 4. The CFB playoff calculus for the Ducks remains the same through 2025. Go 13-0 and the Ducks is in the final 4. Go 12-1 and the Ducks should be in the final 4. So, let's sit back, relax and enjoy Oregon football and the other Oregon sports.

Based on 'recent' history in the money ball sports, how can one not be negative? And I think you nailed it. How many of the 12 Pac-12 administrations are truly behind success in conference big time sports? But as Ducks fans we need to keep on a keepin' on. HOWEVER, IMHO opinion, splitting revenue equally with schools who refuse to or cannot, commit the capital an SC and Oregon spend on CFB and CBB and getting an equal piece of the revenue pie is senseless. ESPN is broadcasting one spring game nationally in 2022. Anyone surprised that it is the USC spring game? All other spring games will be broadcast on the rumor that is the Pac-12 Network.

Saint Peter's CBB HC is Shaheen Holloway. Holloway played his college ball at Seton Hall. Back in the day when Holloway was on the Seton Hall team the Pirates defeated the Ducks in OT in an NCAA Tournament game. Holloway is being paid $238,000.00 a year to coach St. Pete. Seton Hall is looking for anew CBB HC. I sure hope David, St. Pete's, defeats Goliath, UNC, later today. Regardless, when the St. Peter's tourney run ends I expect Shaheen will be saying 'so long Peacocks,' and 'hello Pirates?' $3M+ a year goes further in Jersey than does $238K. (DUH!)

Thank you so very much Charles. I only hope that the Pac-12 will make the right decision regarding playoff field expansion, and also with the upcoming media negotiations. And please, do something about Larry's rotten network. With the financial strength of the B1G and the SEC, perhaps the Pac-12 should consider some kind of CFB alliance with the B12 and a collective bidding effort for the new media rights? I think a 12 team field with all P5 champs in is the best bet for the Pac-12? With the B1G staying at 9 conference games the Pac-12 will likely do the same. And with 16 members, eventually, I do not see how the SEC will not go to 9 conference games with the ACC likely to follow suit? Go to 12 and II think it will behoove all P5 conferences to get rid of divisions and assure that the top 2 conference teams play for the title. Both the B1G and the SEC have indicated that divisions will go, with a certain number of games being protected and played every year. The SEC does not want to lose Auburn vs Bama; the B1G wants Michigan and Ohio State to play every year and I expect all of the Pac-12 rivalry games would be protected? One thing for certain. If the field goes to 12 teams, Week Zero will be Week One for all of CFB. BTW and kind of off the wall, if the Nation was to decide to stay with Daylight Savings time, a 3 PM Pacific kick off time would help the Rose Bowl keep a primo 1/1 spot. When George Kliavkoff says he has a fiduciary responsibility to the Rose Bowl he is not exaggerating. Both GK and B1G Commish Kevin Warren, are members of the Rose Bowl Board of Trustees.

CFB is in chaos, no doubt. NIL has turned out not to simply be a reward for personal performance, which I happen to believe is fine, but also is being used as a recruiting inducement. The 'one free transfer rule' and the transfer portal has brought unregulated free agency to CFB. And has also led to roster tampering. The NCAA is in the process of turning CFB and CBB regulation over to the G5 and P5 conferences. But one CFB institution, the Playoff, is status quo for the next 4 years; the playoff will continue to have a field of 4 teams through 2025. Why? Because on the issue of playoff field expansion The Alliance, albeit for different reasons, actually allied in voting against expansion of the playoff field. The ACC - wants an 8 game field and time to perform a 'holistic review' of CFB. (It also wants an 8 team field in order to incent Notre Dame to join the ACC as a full time football member. Unless Notre Dame does so, the ACC is stuck with a crummy media deal through 2036.) The B1G wants a 12 team field with all P5 champs guaranteed a spot in the field. The Pac-12 is fine with an 8 or 12 team field but does not want to agree to expansion before knowing what the expansion revenue distribution will be after 2025. The Pac-12 also is uncertain whether there will be 12 votes on the Playoff Committee post-2025; regardless, post-2025, any changes to the playoff field are not likely to require a unanimous vote for approval. This is the case today because the G5/P5 and Notre Dame currently all have their playoff media rights assigned to ESPN. And along with the B1G, the Pac-12 wants to protect the Rose Bowl's January 1st 2 PM Pacific kickoff time. At least part of the Alliance's resistance is predicated on the SEC 'poaching' Oklahoma and Texas from the B12, thus creating the first 16 team 'super conference.' In response to this churlishness, SEC commissioner has churlishly indicated that the SEC will be fine staying with a 4 team field. But as all CFB fans are or should be aware, CFB today is big business. No conference, including the well-heeled B1G and SEC, can afford to pass on an expanded playoff field bringing in far more money than does a 4 team field. Atlas kind of playoff shrugged, but all of the current Playoff Committee members know that a new playoff format, in order to provide time for negotiation with the media, will have to be agreed to before the beginning of the 2025 season. I believe come 2026, that we will see a 12 team CFB playoff field. All P5 champs will be in. A G5 representative will be in. The Rose Bowl in one way or another will be 'protected.' However, the top 4 ranked teams and not the 4 highest ranked conference champions will receive a first round bye. Using the CFB Football Playoff Committee's final 2021 rankings, and the above format, here's what the field would have been for the 2021 CFB Playoff. 1. Alabama - SEC vs. 9. Oklahoma State - AL at 8. Ole Miss - AL 4. Cincinnati - AAC/G5 vs. 12. Pittsburgh - ACC at 5. Notre Dame - AL 2. Michigan - B1G vs. 10. Michigan State - AL at 7. Baylor - B12 3. Georgia - AL vs. 11. Utah - Pac-12 at 6. Ohio State - AL 3 SEC teams, 2 with 1st round byes 3 B1G teams, 1 with a first round bye. 2 B12 teams. 1 ACC, Pac-12 and G5 team. Why, if you were Greg Sankey with 16 SEC teams to satisfy and B1G Commissioner Kevin Warren, with 3 teams in the field, would you not agree to the above? 3 teams in the field would most likely be the rule, season after season, for both the B1G and the SEC. And there would be season's where 4 SEC and/or B1G teams made the field. That means even bigger money for both the B1G and the SEC. The Pac-12? Why not agree to this format? You may get only 1 team in the field, but that's better than nothing and the money will be far better with a team in the playoff than having one Pac-12 team playing in the Rose or Fiesta Bowl every season. The ACC? In my opinion, either the ACC plays 12 field ball or Clemson and FSU are likely off to the SEC. With AAU member schools Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, UNC, UVA, in one form or another, possibly off to the B1G? REMEMBER: A 12 team playoff field put out to bid to all media entities and not just ESPN, is likely to at least triple the money the playoff is bringing in today. Do you share my thoughts that CFB will see a 12 team playoff field in 2026? Meanwhile, let's all enjoy Ducks football and all the other sports through 2025 and beyond.

Think the NCAA wants Coach K to keep keeping on? Duke beat Tech by 5 points. Free throws - Duke 15-17, Tech 5-9.

You're talking about our Alliance buddy B1G refs, right? The game looked like it was being called by SEC refs. Brutal! Plus, losing to a NIL-paid QB before NIL and his Cheese-Whiz HC.

Lose to UNC? Not if Coach let's Joey Chitwood take the last shot!

Been there, done that.

Once upon a time Kelvin was the CBB HC at WAZZU. Houston plays Villanova today for a Final 4 spot. The game location in San Antonio is great for Houston. Ditto for Kansas playing Miami Sunday in Chicago. The above 2 are left from the 6 Pac-20 teams that made the Sweet 16. UCLA got a lesson in Love from UNC. TX TECH went down to Duke as the Coach K tour continues. Iowa State lost to Miami but what a rebound by an Iowa State team that won 2 CBB games the season prior. Zona went down to Houston in San Antonio but Floyd did a great job in year one and AZ was one of the youngest teams in CBB in 2021. Notable that 4 seeded UCLA had to play 8 seeded UNC in Philly and 1 seed Arizona had to play Houston in San Antonio, a two hour drive from Houston. Will Gene Hackman be on the bench when St Pete's plays UNC? It would be fitting, 'as no small school has ever gone this far before.' (Thank you, Shooter.) BTW: CBB HC salaries. 3 Pac-12 HCs make $3M+ including Dana Altman; 11 ACC HCs make $3M+; 10 B1G HCs make $3M+; Ditto for the SEC; 6 B12 coaches make $3M+ and this is before Houston officially joins the B12. Money matters.

I know Al Michaels is headed to Amazon territory with Herbie. But how about a new "Do you believe in NCAA miracles? Yes!' St Pete, 2600 enrollment defeats Purdue 40K + enrollment and heads to the Elite 8. First time ever for a 15 seed. And another instance that proves up why we need a real CFB tournament. Lower seeds will win games. Hats off to the Peacocks on what ironically or coincidentally, is Peacock Day in the USA.

Many of the Mario games were like going to the dentist. At the end you'll feel better but it hurts along the way.

Great. Prepare to spend lot's of time on the field.