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Everything posted by Jon Joseph
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Five Items to Know About Oregon's Opponent, Oral Roberts
Here's one more. Riviera Country Club, although he had a house on a hill, next door to member, Mel Brooks' home, bordering the golf course, along with Bel-Aire Country Club and LA Country Club, refused to accept Oral Roberts as a member. I'm rooting for Ducks baseball to treat the eponymously named school in the same fashion.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Man, I hate to bring this up BUT, USC and the entire B1G were CFB hugely watched when the B1G schedule was shown and debated on the B1G Network. A Network that is 61% owned by FOX and has 5 x plus the number of subscribers that Larry's Loser Network has. And the B1G staying at 9 conference games means that the B1G took none of the grief that the SEC received (and the ACC should receive) for playing 8 conference games in 2024 in a 16-team conference. In the flex B1G schedule coming in 2024, USC has 1 permanent opponent, UCLA. This means that with Notre Dame on the schedule SC will have only 6 home games every other year. This season like last season Michigan has 8 home games. But this is negated by pulling down $65M a year in media money. Say what you like but this kind of publicity is recruiting gold for USC and even for UCLA. 2 of the Ducks games at least, Portland State and Hawaii will be broadcast on the Pac-12 Network this season. That means off-radar viewing for most of the nation. And the game at Texas Tech will be broadcast on FOX at the same time Bama is playing Texas on ESPN. I am more than willing to bet that College Game Day, which dwarfs the FOX Big Noon pregame broadcast when it comes to viewers, will be in Tuscaloosa for the pregame. In a terrific post on OBD Forum, Oregon football is shown to be worth $3M a game. Including a bowl game, this equates to $39M a season and more if Oregon plays for a conference championship and makes the playoff which will be easier to do when the 12-team playoff field arrives in 2024. But media money makes up less than half of what Oregon football and its national and international brand bring in every season. Sales of merchandise are not helped by scheduling B12 games OOC. Here is one Pac-10 team's, ASU, future games vs. the SEC 2024 - Mississippi State/ 2025 - at Mississippi State 2026 - at A+M/ 2027 - vs A+M 2028 - Florida 2029 - at LSU/ 2030 - vs LSU 2031 - at Florida 2032 - Texas 2033/ - 2034 at Texas These are the games that move the viewership needle. That will bring a lot of exposure to a Pac-10 program that on the field can't carry Oregon's nether elastic equipment. With the 2 LA schools gone in 2024, these are the kind of games, along with quality B1G opponents (Wisconsin plays in Pullman in 2023!) that Oregon must schedule. Six years against B12 teams before Michigan State shows up on the schedule is simply a dollars-and-cents scheduling mistake. (I realize I am repeating myself here but IMO OOC scheduling is critical for brand awareness.) It seems to me that the Oregon AD and the Oregon SID believe that Oregon will simply sell itself. Imagine if Phil Knight had taken the same approach and not signed on Michael Jordan. USC B1G games will be drawing far more eyeballs than Pac-10 games. And reiterating, this does matter when it comes to recruiting. Hopefully, a deal with Apple/Amazon will lead to better worldwide viewing numbers for Oregon but this will take time to develop. And, as we are all painfully aware the details of the new Pac media deal are unknown. So yes, SC will have a tough B1G row to hoe but it will be in the national spotlight, featured on linear TV and on a viable conference network, and bringing down big bucks. So, if $3M a game is a correct valuation although I want Oregon to stay in the Pac and not abandon Oregon State if the B1G/FOX comes with an offer of $45M to $50M now in 5 years from now (adjusted for inflation,) in annual media money Oregon best avoid Horace Greely's advice and head East. Bashing SC is LOL fun, but the B1G media exposure and the B1G money will spend.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
1 game, yes. But travel to the Left Coast is the reason that Ohio State paid $500K to buy out of the 2024/25 home and home series with Washington. Thereby, hosing over UW and diminishing Pac-10 OOC competition.
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College Football News - AP Poll and Bowl Game Projections
My thoughts, FWIW. Six Pac-12 teams are ranked. Half of the conference. 4 USC - overrated. I'm not convinced that with Grinch as the DC that SC will ever play good enough D to reach the Final 4 and starting in 2024, to win the B1G. 9 UW - Yes, UW gets Utah and Oregon in Seattle but has to play USC in LA. 10 Utah - looking at the schedule, Utah is overrated. Florida in Salt Lake and Baylor in Waco out-of-conference (OOC.) At UW and USC and Oregon at home. And a big question mark regarding the health of Rising. 13. Oregon - Based on the Blue Chip Roster ranking and this being Coach Lanning's 2nd season and with Nix back, the Ducks IMO should be the top or second-ranked team in the Pac-12. 19. Oregon State - With 3 G5 opponents OOC and playing UCLA, Utah, and Washington in Corvallis and missing USC, the Beavers could well be underrated. Is DJU the answer at QB? 24. UCLA - Squishy soft OOC schedule and one of the easiest slates in the conference. But will it be enough to get UCLA into the top 25? I see the Beavers taking down the Bruins in Corvallis, National Question Marks. 7 FSU - 12 Clemson - FSU opens with LSU and has to trip to Clemson. I see Clemson, with Notre Dame also playing in Clemson, winning the ACC. FSU will go bowling but in many respects, FSU is this season's 2022 Texas A+M. 5 Ohio State - 2 Michigan - I know the game is in Ann Arbor and I know Ohio State will have a new QB throwing to the best WR crew in CFB but Michigan plays top 10 Penn State in Happy Valley and Ohio State gets PSU at home. Ohio State has the far harder OOC schedule playing at Notre Dame but I think that the Buckeyes win in Ann Arbor and win the B1G title. 3 Alabama - 6 LSU - Yes, LSU plays in Tuscaloosa but this is Brian Kelly's 2nd season and LSU returns the SEC's best starting QB in Daniels. If Quinn Ewers can stay on the field for 4Qs Texas will give Bama a battle in Tuscaloosa. 23 Tulane is the highest-ranked G5 team, the presumptive AAC champ, and is projected to go back-to-back in NY6 Bowl appearances. My Final 4 - (again, FWIW) Rose Bowl - 2. Ohio State vs. 3. LSU Sugar Bowl - 1. Georgia vs 4. Clemson With 5 and often 6 teams ranked in the preseason and playing 9 conference games, I do not see a Pac-12 team finishing with fewer than 2 losses.
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College Football News - AP Poll and Bowl Game Projections
Here is Athlon Sports take. Oregon Football: Where Ducks ranked in Athlon Sports preseason poll DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Do you remember back when you were growing up before the internet was a few taps of the finger away from your reach? It...
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
This hits home. Neil Everett is an Oregon grad and was a big supporter of the Ducks when he was on-air.
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
This article further points out Disney/ESPN's financial difficulties. Likely one reason GK is having difficulty getting a new media deal done. Well-known ESPN anchor leaving network amid budget cuts LARRYBROWNSPORTS.COM Disney is preparing for a new round of budget cuts at ESPN, and several on-camera figures are expected to be let go. On...
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Prime Time Pushes Back - Calls Out Pitt Coach
I am very happy to see Buffs head coach Deion Sanders push back at Pitt's head coach Narduzzi's criticism of the manner in which Deion is making a wholesale dramatic roster change at CU. As Deion notes, what he is doing at CU is the name of today's game of college football. And he also noted that the situation at CU is far different from the situation Narduzzi inherited at Pitt. Deion is simply taking advantage of the NCAA lifting the cap on the 25 limits on new scholarship players in a given year. And accordingly, taking advantage of the transfer portal. IMO, every team in the Pac should be happy that Deion has CU front and center in today's media coverage of college football. The game at Autzen, Deion's Pac opener, will draw far more eyeballs than CU visiting Eugene with Karl Dorrell at the helm. Although I personally have reservations about the manner in which college football has evolved it's hard to argue against 47,000 fans attending the Buffs spring game and the 2023 season ticket allotment for Buffs games being sold out. CU merchandise sales across the nation have also materially improved. And CU's opener at TCU and the second game against Nebraska in Folsom Field will be prime-time broadcasts. Deion Sanders pushes back at criticism from Pitt coach WWW.YARDBARKER.COM Deion Sanders has made himself the focal point of the Colorado football program, and not everybody likes it. Sanders has no time... Oregon makes significant money every season from the sale of Ducks-themed gear. Another reason why I am not overjoyed about playing B12 opponents OOC for the next six seasons. In today's media-driven world, you simply cannot hide your light under a bushel whether, in theory, such scheduling improves playoff odds or not.
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Bye Bye CFP for USC in 2024 as Schedule of Games Released
Be careful what you wish for. From Big Dog to a hound in the B1G pound.
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Yikes. Serious Stuff about Oral Roberts...
Hopefully, TCU vs Georgia and not Michigan.
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College Football News - AP Poll and Bowl Game Projections
All great thoughts. Apparently, Fiutak believes that Boise will be the highest-rated G5 team and receive the NY6 invitation. I think Boise will struggle to win the MW and there is a good chance that the AAC champ claims the G5 spot; maybe Tulane repeats. He predicts that Oregon will get the short end of the stick and draw Boise in the Cotton Bowl. Going against Andy Avalos. UW in the Fiesta Bowl vs Notre Dame = UW defeats Oregon for the conference title but does not make the Final 4. Not sure that UW will win the game at USC. I think that UW will win the Utah game in Seattle and that Oregon has a very good chance to win at Utah that I see losing to SC in LA. My guess is that Oregon will play SC for the title in a rematch. Tough game for Oregon coming off the Civil War game vs OR St while SC is idle the week prior to the Pac champ game. (Thank you Pac-12.) Entirely agree with your take on Texas. I don't see Texas winning in Tuscaloosa whereas I can see LSU defeating Bama in Tuscaloosa and playing Georgia in the SEC title game in the last season the SEC will have divisions. I think the Pac missing out on the final Final 4 is a good call seeing how deep the conference will be in 2023. I think that no Pac-12 team will finish with fewer than 2 losses.
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College Football News - AP Poll and Bowl Game Projections
The following is from College Football News Pete Fiutak. Projected Pac-12 teams in the AP Preseason yet to be released Top 25 - 5. USC 12. Oregon 14. Washington 15. Utah 18. Oregon State Others Receiving Votes - UCLA 25. Texas Tech Bowl Projections - Las Vegas - UCLA vs Kentucky LA - Arizona vs SDSU Independence - Washington State vs Cincinnati Holiday - USC vs NC State Alamo - Utah vs Oklahoma Sun - Oregon State vs Louisville NY6 - Peach - LSU vs Michigan Orange - FSU vs Penn State Fiesta - Washington vs Notre Dame Cotton - OREGON vs Boise State Playoff - Rose - Alabama vs Ohio State Sugar - Georgia vs Texas 2 NY6 bowls for the Pac would be nice. I think the Holiday projection for SC with Utah playing in the Alamo Bowl makes no sense with Utah playing SC in LA. I do not see the loser of the Texas at Bama game making the final 4 and I think that LSU wins the SEC W. What are your thoughts on these much too early predictions.
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
It was not much of a raise considering inflation. Very close to the formal deal done on a rush basis to come ahead of the Pac. A raise for the 4 new members but not much of won for the 'left over' 8 members. We'll see if this was a good long range strategy? The B12 deal does not lock in ESPN/FOX to ipso facto pay for additional B12 expansion.
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College Football - Will the SEC go to a 9 Game Conference Schedule or Stay with 8 Like the ACC?
I'm often unclear but never in doubt!
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
The SEC has equal shares as does the ACC except for the recent ACC tweak that will give members bringing in footfall and basketball post-season money a bigger piece of the revenue pie. A Rising Crimson Tide certainly benefitted the SEC as a whole.
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
Logical. Why would Pac schools announce a 'Letter of Intent' to pledge media grant of rights without an understanding on the new deal's structure and dollar amount?
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
Right, the media deal has not been concluded so this 'agreement' among the Pac-10 schools is a Letter of Intent. However, I do not think the Pac-10 schools would have announced this 'agreement' without some idea in regard to the structure of the new deal, linear vs streaming, etc., and a ball park media deal bottom line amount. This is backwards from how grants of media rights usually work when there is a deal already in hand. The horse is still inside of the barn. Nevertheless, even though it isn't the same as OK-ing a new deal it is an indication that the Pac-10 schools want to remain together. Of course, the leaders of every Pac-10 school are testing the water for alternatives if the Pac-10 deal falls short of expectations. Simply good business. Once a deal is made, expect an announcement to come mid-week unless and unfortunately, the conference wants to bury the details which most likely means an announcement on Friday. Again, considering alternatives makes sense but the B1G and B12 cannot expand without media companies paying the bill. The announcement by the B12 that it is exploring expansion is far more lame IMO than this announcement form the Pac. Especially when it is clear that if the B12 wants to add Gonzaga and UConn the other B12 members will be paying for this expansion by agreeing to take a lesser amount from ESPN/FOX.
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SUPER REGIONAL GAMES SOLD OUT, PK PARK FANFEST ANNOUNCED FOR THIS WEEKEND
Bluto says that Shout beats the heck out of Sweet Caroline!
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
This guy Swaim is the mini-me of journalism. A complete B12 hack. I can think of an Anglo Saxon onomatopoetic 4 letter word that should appear before SHOW instead of Swaim. Keep throwing tweets on your tweeterville on your garbage pile. Better yet, Swaim away back to your swamp.
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Our (Latest) Radical Idea for the Pac-12 Football Schedule: Play 10 Conference Games
Good take but I do not want to go back to divisions and lose the assurance that the 2 best teams will play for the conference championship.
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
At any cost? If the media deal is close to or exceeds the B12 media deal it could well be in Oregon's best interest to stay in the Pac. Are you certain being a junior member in the B1G and helping to reduce UCLA's and USC's cost of travel makes sense? For say, $10M more a year with a lot of the $10M sucked up by travel and other operational costs. It has been reported, which I take with a grain of salt, that the B1G media deal is now closer to a $60M than a $65M annual payout. If this is the case and with UCLA having to pay 'Calimony' (thank you John Canzan0) the B1G deal could be close to a wash for UCLA. And SC and UCLA are on the hook for their part of the Comcast debacle and for paying the expense of the San Francisco offices restoration to back where the facilities were before Larry showed up. SC will no longer be the shot caller in the B1G. The 2 LA schools nay well have bought a pig in a poke. A pig Kevin Warren advertised as having more bacon on its ribs than is the case. Carol Folt and friends screwed up on the due diligence required before SC hired Bohn as AD. Just like SC screwed up when it hired a coach who had a problem with alcohol. Both Bohn's and Sark's failings were well known to numerous 3rd parties before the hires but apparently unknown by the folks in charge at SC. Kind of like the admissions scandal. Folt appears to be making the same mistakes as her predecessors. It also came as a surprise to both LA schools that a number of their games will be streamed on Peacock that currently sits at 20M subscribers. The Pac has what could be a golden chance to get in on the forefront of streaming where all sports broadcasting appears to be headed.
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Canzano: Pac-12 Teams Agree on "Grant of Rights"
In line with what the ACC has agreed to.
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FishDuck Metrics are Smiling as Ducks Land at No. 9 in Blue Chip Ratio
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/16-college-football-teams-that-can-win-championship-georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-ohio-state-buckeyes Oregon is one of 16 teams with a BCR in 2023.
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Athletics? Are the Aztecs Pac-12 Bound?
https://collegefootballnews.com/cfn/san-diego-state-aztecs-college-football-preview-2023-breakdown-prediction-top-players-win-total Good 2023 review of SDSU football.
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Hate It, New Rumor re AZ and CU Leaving
See todays' takes by Dennis Dodd (!) and John Canzano that both pour oil on the Pac-10's demise. The B12 is nowhere close to poaching any Pac-10 team and the Pac-10 appears to be close to adding SDSU and shutting the B12 out of the San Diego market.