Jon Joseph

Good call David. I think ESPN+ will be one of the streaming services and I expect many games to transfer from ESPN cable to ESPN+ over the next 5 seasons in the ACC, B12, SEC, and Pac-10. Not a bold prediction because Disney/ESPN has said this will happen. SMU should deservedly buy-in and SDSU is making between $4M and $5M a year in media income in the MW so it should also take a revenue haircut. Streaming is coming on and tech advances that serve all streaming companies' interests, such as changing 'channels' between apps, will happen sooner rather than later. I also expect that access to statistics and graphics will be available by using the microphone feature on your remote. All moving toward the day when game broadcasts will be 3D holographic broadcasts with you being able to be anywhere in the stands or on the sidelines as you so desire.

In Your Face 'Journalists!' Please let this speculation come true. GK, see hat, pull out rabbit.

https://collegefootballnews.com/cfn/oregon-ducks-college-football-preview-2023-top-players-keys-what-will-happen

https://collegefootballnews.com/cfn/texas-tech-red-raiders-college-football-preview-2023-top-players-keys-what-will-happen

2 Pac-12 teams in the top 10 for wins against the top 25 ranked opponents since 2010. Stanford and OREGON. I think these wins and losses are based on the ranking when the games were played. Personally and especially for games against over-ranked teams early in the season, I pay attention to the number of wins against the top 25 in the playoff era when the playoff committee releases its ultimate season rankings. Note well that UCLA and USC do not come within a mile of making this list. Ditto the Dawgs up north and Utah. Come a 12-team playoff in 2024 without the LA schools and the hype that exceeds both UCLA and USC's on-field results, playing and defeating consensus top 25 ranked teams outside of the Pac-10 out-of-conference will have an impact regarding at-large bids and seeding. No surprise that Alabama is #1 both for the results on the field, and also because so many SEC teams appear week after week in the top 25 rankings; some deserved to be there, and some there due only to SEC's reputation and media exposure. Georgia at #6 on the list is evidence of the difference Kirby Smart has made to the Georgia program. David Shaw at Stanford was dealing with several issues out of his control but in his control was the ability to move the Cardinal O into the 21st century which he failed to do. Hello, Mario. Here's hoping that Texas Tech will be a consensus top-25 team when the Ducks fly to Lubbock. Oregon Football: The ten best teams against the Top-25 in since 2010 DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM To be the best, you have to beat the best. The Ducks have done a pretty stellar job of doing that over the last decade.

Thanks for the take T. It's difficult now but I expect as streaming expands switching apps will be as easy as changing linear tv channels today. It will be in every streaming entity's best interest to make watching streaming events as painless as possible.

Tandanian, no doubt to be on the national radar the Pac-10 will have to schedule and defeat opponents from the Power 4 and more importantly, the Power 2. After Utah's sorry showing against Penn State in last season's Rose Bowl and the late-game bowl flameouts by the LA schools, OOC results will matter; especially come 2024 when putting together the field and seeding for a 12-team playoff. It would so benefit the Pac-10 in 2023 if Arizona could get a win at Mississippi State, if CU can get a TCU/Nebraska split, for Utah to beat Florida and then not let up in Waco, for UW to win in E. Lansing, ASU to defeat OK ST in Tempe, Oregon to win in Lubbock, Wazzu to do the unthinkable and beat Wisconsin back-to-back, and for the Pac-10 teams as a whole not to lose to G5 opponents, meet or come close to your 17-1 projection with the rest of the conference doing their part. It would also be nice if Stanford can hang with Notre Dame and if Stanford Stadium is sold out, or close, for this game. Frankly, I could care less about what the LA schools do OOC in 2023 and thereafter. But if UCLA doesn't go 3-0 and SC at least 2-1 OOC in 2023 something is wrong. Next season both LA schools play LSU which should be interesting. Welcome to B1G football in 2024 USC. Games versus LSU in Vegas, Notre Dame, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Penn State, and at UCLA with no Caleb Williams in sight. And the Bruins will be traveling 26,000 miles including a game against LSU in Baton Rogue. IMO in 2024, neither SC nor UCLA make the 12-team playoff field.

1 more thought. No school that won a BCS and playoff title had other than a blue-chip roster. including Clemson and FSU from the ACC and no school that played 9 conference games has won a football playoff title. The year Ohio State won the B1G played 8 regular season games. I do not believe that Miami was in the ACC when it won its BCS titles.

The ACC or a member or two of the ACC won football titles playing in a conference while having huge roster advantages. For the ACC to stay at 8 conference games with no divisions so Notre Dame among other reasons can stay independent is in my opinion chicken spit. Yeah, Louisville plays Kentucky, FSU plays Florida, Georgia Tech plays Georgia and Clemson plays South Carolina as does UNC this season, but the overall OOC slate in the ACC is a visit to a cupcake factory, and after Clemson, FSU, and UNC how tough is the in-conference competition now that VA Tech is way down, NC State has never won a football title and Miami is far from making a comeback. Make no mistake. I respect the ACC and I would love to see a merger of the Pac-10 (maybe 12) with the ACC to form the Coast-to-Coast Conference with Atlantic and Pacific divisions. This Power 4 conference would easily win the P4 bronze. So happy to have you on this board. Ohio State vs UGA was the best postseason game last season but UNC/Oregon has to be in the running for 2nd place.

What a bunch of BS! This could only come from an Ohio State fan whose school made the Final 4 twice even though it did not win its conference title. Of course, the 2024 regular season will be important. 4 conference champions will get the top 4 seeds (I expect this will likely change in 2026 when I expect the playoff to go to 16 teams; follow the money) and a first-round bye. And your record and hopefully, SOS will be paramount in being rewarded with one of the 6 at-large slots and finishing seeded 5-8 so you can host a 1st round playoff game. Schools outside of the P5 do win CBB trophies, unlike B1G schools, and look at what Oral Roberts just did (sigh) in the baseball tournament. There will be upsets coming with playoff expansion. Ohio State Football: The last year of a relevant regular season SCARLETANDGAME.COM There have been a lot of memorable Ohio State football seasons in years past. Most of them stand out because the Buckeyes had an... These B1G wonks are undeservedly full of themselves and boring.

A bit OT but in regards to recruiting and NIL the NCAA is a toothless tiger. The latest NCAA memo is beyond pointless SATURDAYBLITZ.COM The latest memo from the NCAA makes you wonder why it even tries to act like it has any enforcement power whatsoever. As we...

Hats off to David! This article was posted on Yardbarker. HUZZAH!

"And with a Pac-12 Conference that has a lot of mediocrity in it after the top 4 teams ...' The above quote is taken from the preview of Oregon State heading into 2023 that appeared on Ducks Wire/USA Today. What Power 5 (P5) conference after the top 4 teams do not have a lot of mediocrity? Using the College Football News 2023 preseason rankings 1 to 133, below are the top 6 ranked teams in every P5 conference. ACC - FSU, Clemson, NC St, UNC, Miami, Duke B1G - Ohio State, Michigan, Penn St, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa B12 - Texas, Kansas St, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. SEC - Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A+M, South Carolina Pac-12 - USC, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Oregon State, UCLA No doubt that we can quibble about the order of the rankings, I might have Florida in the top 6 in the SEC and not South Carolina, and the order of the Pac-12 schools remains to be seen. For the most part, I think College Football News correctly identified the top 6 teams for each conference heading into 2023. Looking at the by-conference rankings the SEC has a sterling top 4 but A+M was not bowl eligible in 2022 and South Carolina was convincingly defeated by Notre Dame in its bowl game. Let's say the Pac-12 matches up with the SEC in order of rankings in Minneapolis, not in Atlanta or Dallas. I very much doubt that the Pac-12 would go 0-6. The other Power 2 conference, the B1G, play these games in Dallas and I think the Pac-12 would have a good chance of going .500 at least. As to the ACC and the B12, if these games were played in Minneapolis I think the Pac-12 would come out with a winning record. Regardless, for every conference, I believe that once you get past the top 4 it can be argued that every conference is mediocre after the top 4 and that the Pac-12 coming into 2023 is as deep as any P5 conference. Playing a 9th conference game means an extra loss that the ACC and the SEC can schedule out of. Only 2 SEC teams in 2023 play 10 P5 opponents including BYU and Notre Dame. In 2024, the B12 losing Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC with three G5 teams and BYU coming on board does not look any better or deeper than the AAC in 2022. Even with the LA schools departing for the B1G, the Pac-10 has 4 solid programs with Colorado, Arizona, and ASU likely on the rise, and somewhat surprisingly, Stanford is doing great so far in 2024 recruiting. Both San Diego State and SMU if added are better than the cellar dwellers in every P5 conference. But it is, of course, the Pac-12 that is called out for being mediocre after the top 4 and not any other P5 conference. What do you think? Am I being too much of a Left Coast homer? Pac-12 Preview: Oregon State Beavers try to sustain new-found success DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Oregon State football has had a rollercoaster history, but coach Jonathan Smith is on the verge of sustaining success for years to...

But I don't see the money in either conference equating to Vandy or Northwestern winning conference football championships. In today's world, your NIL collective has more influence on success than does the conference that you play in. Division Street is one of the top collectives in the nation. Oregon is still ahead of USC and UCLA and the majority of the B1G in 2024 football recruiting. Players are not bailing from Oregon en masse so they can play in the B1G. Oregon mainly due to location is not going to be able to recruit at the level of the top SEC teams. Ohio State and Michigan/Penn State sort of are the only B1G schools that recruiting-wise can hang with the SEC and for that matter, Oregon. And I reiterate, when it comes to championships the B1G money hasn't brought B1G teams close to competing for championships like SEC teams. And the lower half of the SEC does not compete for NCAA and football playoff titles. Plus, who will be the beneficiary of more media money? Certainly not the young men and women playing non-revenue sports. I do agree that CFB at the top level will continue to coalesce but will there be separate conferences or a Super League; especially, when football and basketball players are deemed to be employees of the university they play for? Today's CFB calculus will likely not be recognizable in 5 to 10 years. The Oregon brand should Oregon decide to participate in the 'brave new world' will not be left behind. As a practical matter, the issue is moot before Oregon receives an invitation to join the B1G which I do not see happening for 5 to 6 years. You need an invitation to attend the Ball.

Except, ESPN has given notice that almost all of its future events will be streamed. Linear TV will be replaced by streaming sooner rather than later. Because of belt-tightening, Gameday was not at last year's Army/Navy game. And if ESPN wants to remain dominant in CFB broadcasting it cannot restrict the national coverage of CFB with the playoff moving to 12 teams. A conference is not just composed of its premier teams. How often has Gameday shown up in Evanston, Illinois for a Northwester versus Rutgers game compared to Game Day appearances in Eugene? Oregon football is not going to drop off of the national radar because the LA schools are moving to the B1G where UCLA will not compete for football titles and SC will be hard-pressed to win football championships. Last season with the Heisman winner at QB, SC did not win the conference title and lost to a G5 team in its bowl game. Come 2024 Caleb Williams will be in the NFL and not in South Central.

I do not believe you can project out any future revenues based on today's media model or what has happened in the past. I think we will see media income being distributed disparately when the next media deals are done in 5 or so seasons. We are seeing this happening partially with the ACC giving bigger slices to its teams that bring in bank from the CBB and CFB tournaments and the Pac-12 is rumored to be doing the same when it comes to football. Come 2026 because of the love of money I expect the football playoff will move to 16 teams with no 1st round byes and the CBB tournament is supposedly moving to an 80-team field. Playoff money will be far easier to score in a 12-team conference than in what would be at least an at least 18-team conference. And I do give a whip about college kids having to face professional-like travel with demands on their time that pros do not have. Where is the extra media money going to go? To the players? No way. UCLA plays 11 men's varsity sports and 14 women's varsity sports. How many teams will fly charter and not commercial. And will Title 9 come into to play for women's teams that have to fly commercial. As David noted in 2024 UCLA football will travel 26,000 miles. What will the travel budget be for 1 sport let alone all of the other sports? 1 game on Peacock restricted to 20M viewers stinks let alone 8 games. And the Michigan State fans had no say in Peacock moving a home game to Detroit. 20M isn't a heck of a lot better than the Pac Network's 13M subscribers. UCLA and USC and Oklahoma and Texas having pledged their media rights to their new conference are in no position to return even if they so desired. There are many UCLA fans and a number of SC fans that are not happy about this move. Let's see how many football and basketball titles the LA schools win in the B1G. I enjoy your comments. Out of curiosity and not intending to be the least bit snarky, did you attend a B1G school? You are very bullish on a conference that makes money but has done nothing of significance when it comes to winning titles.

Great take. But all about the Ws or the $s?

A timely take on this subject from Matt Hayes. This time from the B1G site Saturday Traditions. Hayes notes that the B1G will not author the destruction of the Pac-10 (Right?) and cautions that media dollars may not be in place to fund further expansion. Spot on in regards to media money. Hayes has 5 Pac-10 schools as potential B1G additions: Cal, Oregon, Stanford, and UW are on every potential expansion list I have seen but Utah is a new candidate. I think CU would be in the running ahead of Utah. The B1G 10: Expansion hinges on timing of Pac-12, ACC implosions. It’s ‘when?’, not ‘if’ SATURDAYTRADITION.COM The Big Ten will seek football powers that can earn the league 'units' in the expanded Playoff, columnist Matt Hayes says in the...

David, thanks for touching all of the bases in this terrific article. There is no place like home and home isn't in Piscataway, New Jersey.

Rufus, Brett McMurphy is often wrong but never in doubt. Linear TV is going the way of the Dodo Bird. The SEC needed one media entity, Disney/ESPN, to do its new media deal. Fox, with a 61% ownership stake in the B1G Network, needed to raid LA and add NBC/Peacock and CBS to arrive at $70M, oops, 65M gross per member school. Kevin Warren promised NBC that it would broadcast the B1G football championship game. He had no right to do so and this led to a $5M haircut. You have to figure that the LA schools were worth a very conservative $20M to the B1G media deal bottom line. This equates to the B1G without the LA schools bringing in around $45M a team. As noted by Maryland's president the other day even if the B1G wanted to further expand the media money in today's market is not available to fund further expansion. The LA schools were not aware that Peacock, a streaming service with fewer than 20M subscribers and none of the massive ancillary services offered by Apple/Amazon, will be broadcasting a number of their home games. NBC has informed Michigan State that it will be broadcasting the UW game and Peacock has moved a Sparty home game from E. Lansing to Detroit. This is a far cry from SC and UCLA getting the Pac-12 to knuckle under and agree to the 4 CA schools playing one another every season in football. The LA schools did not even have the scheduling juice to have Nebraska, 1500 miles away and closest to the LA schools as a permanent football scheduling partner. And the B1G is not big across the board in athletics. It last won a CBB title in 2000. It has won 1 football championship and placed one more school than the Pac-12 in the playoff field. Ohio State is now close to .500 in playoff games and Michigan and Michigan State are 0-3. Baseball, softball, golf, track+ field, etc., are off the NCAA championship radar. The B1G is big not because of on-field and on-court results like the SEC but because of geography and legions of alumni/alumnae. It seems to me that USC and UCLA sold out their athletes, especially their non-revenue sports athletes. In order to finish in the black they are sending all of their athletes two time zones plus for every away game. How many more UCLA and USC athletes will make money in the pros because the schools are in the B1G? Damn few if any. How many more administrators will be hired to oversee athletic operations and how much will the administrator's salaries be bumped? A lot. Oregon sports made bank last season and finished in the black notwithstanding an average media deal. How many B1G and SEC schools finished in the black? Certainly not the majority of the schools in the B1G and the SEC. Like David, I was at first certain that a move to the B1G was paramount for Oregon to continue to be competitive in football. But a 12-team playoff field has entirely changed the playoff calculus. In an 18-team conference and I doubt that the B1G would add just Oregon and UW, it will be far more difficult to make the football playoff. The Pac Conference champ is in the playoff most likely with a 1st round bye and the Pac will have an excellent shot at picking up one of the 6 at-large bids. Oregon if invited to the B1G will be invited at less than a full media share. I have no interest in Oregon being a junior partner to Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa, unless there is no other place to play.

Mr. FishDuck? Filled with righteous IPA juice.

Or, pinning the tail on a lot of championship opportunities? When you have 16 teams let alone 18+ do you have a conference? In a 12-team football playoff, there will be six at-large teams chosen. How many will come out of an 18+ team B1G? A Pac-12 with SDSU and SMU will get its conference champion in the field year after year, likely with a first-round bye, and should also have a very good shot at getting a 2nd team in. Do you want to have to finish ahead of one and perhaps two of Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State to make the playoff? Ditto for teams in the CBB tournament that is expected to expand to 80 teams. LSU plays Florida tonight for the CWS title. These 2 did not meet in the regular season and that's before OK and TX join the SEC. It is a dicey question but how much of a revenue haircut should Oregon take to be a junior member of the B1G instead of the top dog (over the Dawgs) in the Pac-10+? Personally, I want to see a streaming deal with Apple/Amazon and the income that could come from streaming to a far bigger audience than the Pac-12 Network and NBC's Peacock and its 20M subscribers, before joining the B1G. I see good things happening out west including CU's hire of Prime, Oregon State in the preseason top 25, Cal finally building an on-campus CBB practice facility, and Stanford getting with it in football recruiting. I am in no particular hurry to be a junior partner to Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska. I am looking forward to reading David Marsh's take on this subject tomorrow.

With 18 teams and more likely 20 teams, how often will these 2 schools be on the football schedule unless one is a permanent football partner as is the case with UCLA and Michigan? SC will not play Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State every season. SC does play all 3 schools in 2024, at Ohio State and Penn State, and plays Michigan at home but the Trojans also play at Maryland and Illinois. Add Notre Dame and LSU to the 2024 schedule without Caleb Williams at QB and good luck, yuck yuck, Trojans.

EXACTLY. The B1G's new media deal is now down to $65M a school per annum. Take away the LA schools and at least $20M in a media revenue bump and what is so great about the B1G deal? And B1G sports? No CBB title since 2000. 1 college football playoff title. Michigan is playoff 0-2 and Penn State has never made the playoff. Football is these 3 teams and 11 mediocre teams with UCLA on the way to make it 12 mediocre football teams. And will SC's D improve? As to baseball, softball, golf, tennis, track, and field, etc., the B1G is a non-entity. We are living in a Power 1. The B1G money is close but the on-field and on-court results for the B1G are woeful compared to the SEC. And why would any school want football games broadcast on Peacock with its 20M subscriber base? I'd much prefer the Pac to hold together and not to have every road game in every sport requiring 2-time zones+ travel. Oregon's sports existence does not solely rely on media income. And in a 10 to 12-team conference, the odds of making all post-season fields are far better than playing in an 18+ team conference.; including the odds of having two teams make the 12-team football playoff field.

WOW! Good thing I have my cardiologist on speed dial. Washington lands commitment from elite TE out of California SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM Washington has another new commit.