Grandpa Duck

Lots of boxes checked. Feel very good about Moore’s passing. That and a frosh RB, Riggs, bods well for those two positions.

Ducks win 38-13 2 turnovers 4 sacks 192 yds passing

If there is blame to be accorded for the arrangement of seeded teams in the bracket, please put it where it belongs. The conferences wrote the committee protocol. The conferences decided there would be 12 teams in the playoff. The conferences determined that the top four conference champions would have a first round bye. And who has the loudest voices among the conferences? Yes, the B1G and the SEC. As in the old comic strip Pogo, “we have met the enemy and it is us!” Conspiracy theorize all you like, but the dirty hands in this system are as much Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss . . . , as anyone. Read PittDuck’s comment above. All the Ducks need to do is win their games. If they are truly the best team in the country that will happen.

In order to get a top four seed the school must be its conference champion. Notre Dame’s ceiling is a fifth seed.

Indiana 31-24 0 turnovers 1 sack 218 passing yds

When it comes right down to the nut cutting, the reason I read FishDuck first is the belly laughs I get from posts like Charles has above. Yes, that picture is worth a thousand words, and a good belly laugh.

Nice catch, Charles. I think sometimes a basketball rebound is credited to “team”. That’s what I would do here, were I the official scorer. If a defensive back’s coverage made the QB delay an instant, does the DB get part of the credit? It took eleven players for James to break loose for the onlyTD.

Thank you, Jon, for an enjoyable, informative read!

While the Committee does not have a "metric" that sets a mathmatical process , it does not simply apply an "eye test". There is a written Protocol that lists factors considered: " Strength of schedule, Head-to-head competition, Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and, Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance." Last year the Committee omitted FSU from the playoff under the "key player" relevant factor because the FSU quarterback had a season ending injury in its next to last regular season game. That decision was roundly criticized in the media and on message boards. In my opinion, that was the proper thing to do as FSU would have been beaten badly playing the replacement QB, as was shown by that players performance in the final seaslon game and in the bowl game. FSU was clearly not one of the four "best teams" without its starting QB. Here is the complete Commottee Protocol, in case you're into reading the law. if not, at least read the "voting process". I read another article a few days ago that said the first step is for each committee member to list their top three best teams. Then they total the votes and agree on a top three and move on to the next three, through #25. " CFP SELECTION COMMITTEE PROTOCOL MISSION The committee’s task will be to select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and then assign the teams to the playoff bracket and their game sites. PRINCIPLES The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering: Strength of schedule, Head-to-head competition, Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and, Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance. VOTING PROCESS The voting process generally will include seven rounds of ballots through which the committee members first will select a small pool of teams to be evaluated, then will rank those teams, with the teams being placed in the rankings in groups of three for three rounds, then four for the other four rounds. Individual committee members’ rankings will be compiled into a composite ranking for each round. Each committee member will independently evaluate an immense amount of information during the process. This evaluation will lead to individual qualitative and quantitative opinions that will inform each member’s votes. NUMBER OF TEAMS TO BE RANKED The committee will rank 25 teams. The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will be in the playoff. CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS RANKINGS If fewer than five conference champions are among the top 25 on Selection Day, then the committee will rank the remaining conference champions. The highest ranked of those teams will be added to the playoff until five conference champions are included in the playoff. A conference champion(s) from outside the top 12 will be placed at the bottom of the 12-team seeding in rank order. MEETING SCHEDULE The committee will meet in person weekly beginning generally at mid-season to produce interim rankings before selection weekend. The dates for the fall of 2024 are as follows: Monday and Tuesday, November 4-5 Monday and Tuesday, November 11-12 Monday and Tuesday, November 18-19 Monday and Tuesday, November 25-26 Monday and Tuesday, December 2-3 Friday through Sunday, December 6-8 POINT PERSONS FOR GATHERING INFORMATION The committee has assigned two members to be the “point persons” to gather material about the teams in each conference and the independent teams. The process will ensure that the committee fully reviews each team and that no information is overlooked. The point persons will ensure that (1) the committee has complete, detailed information about each team, and (2) the conferences and independent institutions have an effective and efficient channel for providing facts to the committee. The committee wishes to be clear about the role of the point persons. They are not and will not be advocates for teams in any conference or for any independent institution. They will not speak on behalf of any conference or institution during the committee’s deliberations or represent any conference’s or independent institution’s interests during those deliberations. Their function is to gather information and ensure that it is available to the committee. Their role as a liaison to a particular conference or independent institution is purely for the purpose of objective fact-gathering. The point persons will communicate with conference staff members on three information-gathering teleconferences during the regular season: one before the first ranking, one before the fourth ranking and one the week before Selection Day. Outside of these teleconferences, there will be no contact between the point persons and any conference staff member, or vice-versa, but the conference may relay information to the committee through the CFP staff. Following are the point persons for the 2024 season: CONFERENCE COMMITTEE MEMBERS American: Chris Ault Gary Pinkel Atlantic Coast: Will Shields Mike Riley Big 12: Kelly Whiteside Gary Pinkel Big Ten: Jim Grobe Carla Williams Conference USA: Randall McDaniel Kelly Whiteside Mid-American: Mike Riley Chet Gladchuk Mountain West: Hunter Yurachek David Sayler Pac-12: Chet Gladchuk Jim Grobe Southeastern: David Sayler Randall McDaniel Sun Belt: Carla Williams Will Shields Independents: Mack Rhoades Chris Ault METRICS There will not be one single metric to assist the committee. Rather, the committee will consider a wide variety of data and information. PARTICIPANTS There shall be no limit on the number of teams that may participate in the CFP from one conference. PAIRINGS The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and will receive byes in the first round. The remaining eight teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5 through 12 based on their final ranking. If the fifth conference champion is not ranked among the top 12 teams, it will be seeded at No. 12. Teams seeded 5, 6, 7 and 8 will host first-round games against teams seeded 12, 11, 10 and 9, respectively. In the Playoff Quarterfinals, the team seeded No. 1 will meet the winner of the game between seeds 8 and 9. No. 2 will meet the 7 vs. 10 winner; No. 3 will meet the 6 vs. 11 winner; No. 4 will meet the 5 vs. 12 winner. In the Playoff Semifinals, the winner of the game between No. 1 vs. 8/9 will meet the winner of No. 4 vs. 5/12. The winner of the game between No. 2 vs. 7/10 will meet the winner of No. 3 vs. 6/11. Traditional contract-bowl relationships will be the top priority when the committee assigns teams to Play Quarterfinal sites, but such priority cannot be guaranteed because of the bracket. For example, if the Big 12 Conference champion were ranked No. 1 and the Southeastern Conference champion were ranked No. 2, then the Big 12 champion would be assigned to the Sugar Bowl. The committee will use geographic proximity for the No. 1 seed when assigning the Playoff Semifinal sites GAMES PLAYED AFTER SELECTION DAY The committee will establish the final rankings on Selection Day; as a result, the committee will not consider the results of games played after Selection Day. SELECTION SEQUENCE The committee will adhere to the following sequence: Rank the teams 1-25. Identify the conference champions that will be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and receive byes. Seed the remainder of the field. Assign the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds to Playoff Quarterfinal games in sequential order by ranking as noted herein. The No. 4 seed will play in the remaining Playoff Quarterfinal game. Assign the group containing the No. 1 seed to the Playoff Semifinal game as noted herein. Assign the No. 2 seed’s group to the other Playoff Semifinal game. Place Seed Nos. 5 through 12 in the bracket per the policies herein. There will be no reseeding after any round of the CFP. RECUSAL POLICY If a committee member or an immediate family member (e.g., spouse, sibling or child) (a) is compensated by a school, (b) provides professional services for a school or (c) is on the coaching staff or administrative staff at a school or is a football student-athlete at a school, that member will be recused. Such compensation shall include not only direct employment, but also current paid consulting arrangements, deferred compensation (e.g., contract payments continuing after employment has ended) or other benefits. The committee will have the option to add other recusals if special circumstances arise. A recused member shall not participate in any votes involving the team from which the individual is recused. A recused member is permitted to answer only factual questions about the institution from which the member is recused but shall not be present during any deliberations regarding that team’s selection or ranking. Recused members shall not participate in discussions regarding the placement of the recused team into a bowl game. Following are the recusals for the 2024 season: TEAM COMMITTEE MEMBER Arkansas: Hunter Yurachek Baylor: Mack Rhoades Marshall: Jim Grobe Miami (OH): David Sayler Michigan: Warde Manuel Missouri: Gary Pinkel Navy: Chet Gladchuk Nevada: Chris Ault Oregon State: Mike Riley Rutgers: Kelly Whiteside SMU: Hunter Yurachek South Carolina: Hunter Yurachek Texas A&M: Chet Gladchuk UCLA: Chris Ault Virginia: Carla Williams TERMS Members shall serve three-year terms. Members will not be eligible for reappointment, but a member’s term may be extended by one year (1) if the member would serve as chair in what otherwise would be his/her final year or (2) if other circumstances warrant. Further, a member appointed to serve an unexpired term may be appointed to serve a full three years. TERMS EXPIRE IN FEBRUARY 2025 TERMS EXPIRE IN FEBRUARY 2026 TERMS EXPIRE IN FEBRUARY 2027 Chet Gladchuk Jim Grobe Warde Manuel Will Shields Kelly Whiteside Chris Ault David Sayler Randall McDaniel Gary Pinkel Mack Rhoades Mike Riley Carla Williams Hunter Yurachek COMMITTEE CHAIR The management committee selects the chair of the committee."

Who Are These People? Repeatedly I read comments by posters indicating that the Playoff Selection Committee has a bias in favor of or against a particular team or conference. Most often it is that the SEC gets unfair weight in the selection and seeding for the playoff games. BOSH! When you take a close look at what the committee members do or have done in their life work that caused them to be chosen for the thankless job they perform for all of us fans, attributing some bias to their choices makes no sense. This year’s committee has six AD’s, four former head coaches, one who has been both a head coach and an AD, a former player and a person who is both a college professor and a sports journalist. None of them are from the SEC and three have connections to the B1G. Someone you probably know of reasonably well is Mike Riley, former head coach at Oregon State and Nebraska. Really, Mike Riley, about the nicest guy I can think of who OBD fought hard when the Beavers were a serious rival. If I had to pick out someone who would be the most unlikely person to cheat in the thankless job of serving on the Playoff Selection Committee it would be Mike Riley. Thanks to Liam McKeone for his Nov 7, 2024 article in Sports Illustrated for the listing of the committee members below. NAME AGE SCHOOL ROLE Chris Ault 77 University of Nevada Former Head Coach (HC)/Athletic Director (AD) Chet Gladchuk 74 U.S. Naval Academy AD Jim Grobe 72 Ohio University, Wake Forest, Baylor Former HC Warde Manuel 56 University of Michigan AD Randall McDaniel 59 Arizona State Univeristy Former Player Gary Pinkel 72 University of Missouri, University of Toledo Former HC Mack Rhoades 59 Baylor University AD Mike Riley 71 Oregon State, Nebraska Former HC David Sayler 55 Miami University, OH AD Will Shields 53 University of Nebraska Former Player Kelly Whiteside N/A Montclair State University Professor in Sports Media & Journalism Carla Williams N/A University of Virginia AD Hunter Yurachek 56 University of Arkansas AD

Jordan James played with great heart. Probably his best game, considering the opposition he faced.

Should the clock have been running after whisky’s false start penalty before the punt?

Ducks win, 31-6 3 turnovers 2 sacks 254 passing yds

Lanning grew up in a small town. The part of Eugene where he works, the northeast, in many ways, is like a small town. Everything his family needs is close by. Sheldon high school has great academics and the best athletics in this part of Oregon. It has a large indoor swim facility. He golfs and Eugene Country Club, nationally renown, is just down the street from Autzen. The newest hospital and all the best physicians are right here. Shopping centers and wonderful residential areas are blended in. I know this well because I live here. My grandchildren went to Sheldon, one playing center and tackle in football, plus lacrosse. Snow mountains and winter sports are less than two hours east, and the Pacific Ocean is less than two hours west. i cannot imagine him trading the life he and his family have here for living in a huge metropolitan city.

You guys need to quit ragging on Mario’s dependability.

Ducks 52-10 2 turnovers 4 sacks 335 pass yds

I’ve been to the Rose Bowl to see Oregon get beat by tOSU. Most of the stadium was red, cheering for the team that travelled farther. I’ve been to Glendale, Arizona to see the Ducks lose to Auburn, also with the OBD fans greatly outnumbered. Maybe times have changed and the OBD faithful will show up for a quarterfinal game in Pasadena. Like it or not, despite moving to the B1G, our alum size is no where near large enough to give us a home field advantage in the Rose Bowl.

One thing I did not understand. Before the snap on the TD play, Duck players were looking toward the bench and motioning thumbs down. That could mean any of several different things, like we don't like the play you sent in to kneel down, or maybe we want to take a knee. Or, it could go back to the Roman Ceasar in the coliseum and the indication when Ceasar wanted the victor of the battle to kill the defeated opponent. What do you think?

Ducks win 38-7 2 TO 4 sacks 276 yds passing

Oh, Quack, strength of schedule is still a major factor for teams that win their conference championship. Here is the protocol the committee uses to rank teams: "From the CFP website: "The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable." When the committee seeds the bracket, the team ranked #1, in theory, will have an easier route to the championship than the teams ranked below them. In the quarterfinals, they will play the winnier of the the game between the teams ranked 8-9, avoiding teams 5,6 and 7, assuming the lower numbers (higher ranked teams), win in round one. Also for the quarter-finals, immediately below #1, in their half of the whole bracket, will be the conference champion team ranked #4, avoiding the teams ranked 2 and 3, again assuming the lower numbers adveance to the semi-finals. So, in the semifinals, #1 plays #4. If the lower numbered ranked teams advance to the finals, #1 will play #2. So strength of schedule is used in the bracket seeding, and being #1 means, in theory, you will be paired against teams with poorer rankings than the team ranked #2, and so forth.

To Lanning it’s probably: “So what?”

Yes, the Ducks are boring . . . until they wil not be boring. To start, winning is not boring. But, with a purpose, the Ducks appear to get boring , particularly in the second half. The "Why?" of that purposeful boredom is not so obvious, but here's what I think is happening. All four games remaining on the regular-season schedule are important, but there is one highly important game left that is not on the schedule. That is the B1G championship game. That game is important because the winner of that game is exempt from round one of the 12-team playoff. The likelihood is that the survivors of the quarterfinals, and semifinals who play in the finals are highly likely to come from the four conference champions who do not have to play all three of the elimination games because they will be exempt from the first round. Every game at the end of this greatly extended college football season will take a greater toll on the players than in prior years with far fewer games. There's a reason our starting linemen on both sides of the ball are on the field only 43 or fewer plays a game. Lanning does not want another Jordan Burch injury. An injury can happen anytime. But the odds are, if a player plays fewer plays, he is less likely to be injured. If OBD can go into the championship game fully healthy, it will be won. Lanning also does not want to wear his players out. That's part of why he starts running clock early in the second half, once the game is out of reach. Running clock makes for fewer possessions and fewer plays. He wants the game to get over as quickly as possible, and cares nothing about running up the score. These are the same reasons our tight ends are playing a fewer number of plays than in prior years, as are the running backs, linebackers and defensive backs. Only Dillon Gabriel is exposed during every significant play, and if Dante Moore's red-shirt was not at issue, he would be on the field more and DG less. Moore may well be on the field more in two of the final four regular season games. Lanning's team has been able to win the first half with vanilla plays and nothing fancy. He can save his players and hide the play-book for that most important game. He'll do enough to make sure we win out so that we're in that game, putting OBD in the best possible position to be the B1G champion and miss the first round of the playoff. So, get used to boring wins that conserve our best players' health and hide as much of the play-book as is reasonable.

Ducks win 45-7 3 turnovers 6 sacks 378 yards passing

Thanks for posting the statistic comparison over the years, cartm25. As David Marsh points out, playing a team like PSU can greatly skew the stats for a whole year. Scoring 80 against them raised the average of the other 11 games by nearly 4 points. Another consideration is that comparing stats for just one side of the ball, offense, from year to year assumes that opponent defenses are all the same throughout the years. We know that is not the case.

Fun game to watch today is Michigan at Illinois. OBD opponents the next two weeks face off at 12:30 on CBS. Michigan is favored by 3 points. Massey composite ratings have Michigan at #25, and Illinois at #36.